Electric vehicles still stuck in neutral with consumers

By | October 14, 2011, 3:45am PDT

Summary: Just 4 percent of more than 13,000 Deloitte survey respondents are satisfied with electric vehicle technology specifications, especially charging options and driving ranges.

This week, seven of the auto manufacturers with a vested interest in the electric vehicle market got together to say that they will standardize around a combined charging approach that will let their electric vehicles share the same fast-charging stations in Europe and the United States.

Those companies include the usual suspects: Audi, BMW, Daimler, Ford, General Motors, Porsche and Volkswagen. They plan to use HomePlug GreenPHY as the communications protocol (so keep an eye out for information about that technology specification, which is relevant for how charging stations talk to the broader smart grid). You’ll notice some big names missing from this list, such as Honda, Nissan and Toyota, which is worth a whole post in itself but really isn’t the point of this particular entry.

The fact that at least seven of the companies with electric vehicle aspirations are getting together to help standardize the charging infrastructure is significant, especially given the results of a survey released this month by Deloitte. The study (detailed in a report called “Unplugged: Electric vehicle realities versus consumer expectations”) suggested that consumers are unwilling to compromise on the performance they have come to expect in gasoline-powered vehicles. That means they aren’t willing to accept shorter traveling ranges, higher sticker prices or the inconvenience of having to wait for hours while their car charges.

The study covered the opinions of more than 13,000 consumers from 17 countries in Asia, Europe and North America. The most shocking piece of data, perhaps, is the finding that no more than 4 percent of consumers are satisfied with what electric vehicle manufacturers have made available. Here are some of the findings that are working against them:

  • Even though most people have a daily commute of less than 50 miles, the majority of the survey respondents want electric vehicles to have a range of at least 300 miles. In the United States, as an example, 63 percent of the respondents said they would be satisfied with a range of 300 miles. Craig Giffi, vice chairman and automotive practices leader for Deloitte notes: “The paradox here is that current technology targeted at the mass market can usually accomplish a range of 100 miles between charges, which is twice as far as the typical American drives each work day.” Incidentally, people in France were also likely to have range anxiety.
  • Waiting more than two hours for a charge is unacceptable to almost 60 percent of Americans. In fact, almost one-quarter of the U.S. respondents wanted a 30-minute charge time. It wasn’t just Americans who were interested in faster charging. In Japan, for example, 37 percent cited 30 minutes as the longest acceptable charge time. So, electric vehicle manufacturers have a very long road ahead of them in this regard.
  • They are not inclined to pay more. More than half of all survey respondents said that any kind of price premium for an electric vehicle was unacceptable. Indeed, the report indicates that 78 percent of respondents from Argentina and 74 percent of respondents from India expect electric vehicles to be the cheapest options on the market. The majority of respondents expect to pay no more than $30,000 for an electric vehicle, according to the report.
  • Major improvements in fuel efficiency would kill interest in electric vehicles. As go gasoline prices, so goes the interest in electric vehicles. Higher prices per gallon spur interest, while lower prices tend to distract. Efficiency is potentially more important. Approximately 57 percent of the respondents and China and 68 percent of the respondents in the United States said they would be less likely to think about an electric vehicle as fuel efficiency approaches 50 miles per gallon. In fact, interest “falls off the cliff,” in the words of one of the Deloitte report’s authors.
Right now, there is a big disconnect between electric vehicle consumer expectations and the realities of the technology. Which brings us back full circle to that charging technology cooperation announcement from earlier this week. The automakers are smart to get together on research and development whenever they can, as it relates to alternative transportation technologies. Or electric vehicle adoption will be permanently stuck in neutral.

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Heather Clancy is an award-winning business journalist with a passion for green technology and corporate sustainability issues.

Disclosure

Heather Clancy

Writing publicly about what the high-tech industry is actually doing to help itself and the world get greener or more sustainable is one way I figure I can contribute more meaningfully to said effort. I am also a big OMG-kind-of-fan of smart leadership, which is why the goodly folks who publish this blog let me go on about this topic and why I am always on the hunt for forward-looking business management ideas.

My daily writing is focused on looking for topics for my blogs, GreenTech Pastures and Business Brains. I also write often about emerging technology trends such as mobile computing, unified communications and cloud computing. Occasionally, I will pop up at an industry conference in some sort of speaking capacity. In cases where a speaking engagement involves a sponsor that may be covered in this blog, that fact will be disclosed in coverage as appropriate.

My corporate writing work usually consists of crafting research white papers about some aspect of technology. In the event that my commentary (in written, audio or video form) mentions a company for which I have provided consulting advice, I will disclose that fact. However, there is no connection between these projects and the topics that I am covering in my blog.

Biography

Heather Clancy

Heather Clancy is an award-winning business journalist with a passion for green technology and corporate sustainability issues. Her articles have appeared in Entrepreneur, Fortune Small Business, The International Herald Tribune and The New York Times. In a past corporate life, Heather was editor of Computer Reseller News, where she was a featured speaker about everything from software as a service to IT security to mobile computing.

Heather started her journalism life as a business writer with United Press International in New York. She holds a B.A. in English literature from McGill University in Montreal, Quebec, and has a thing for Lewis Carroll.

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cmakrekdw1201-24379049711684814013393121511335 25th Nov
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I shall be acquiring the 3rd generation electric Smart when it goes on sale next year. This is because its range will be sufficient for my round trip, (78 miles), but more importantly, London has a number of concessions for electric vehicles that will make changing from my current diesel Smart well worth the change. Parking costs will drop from ??2,100 to ??271 per annum, electricity is free at the charging points but even if it wasn't, my fuel costs would drop from ??9.50p per day to around ??2 for electricity. The overall savings could be ??3,600 per annum. OK, this is not a long distance family car, but then we have a Mercedes for that. The point here is that it is convenient to have two family cars, but unnecessary to have two large ones. The alternative to a Smart is hybrid or EREV technology like the Chevvy Volt/Vauxhall Ampera but these are very expensive vehicles just to use for commuting.

And that, surely, is the whole point?
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Lucky you!
kd5auq Updated - 14th Oct
@MarkCJClemence
We are stuck with premium unleaded Smarts in the U.S.

I agree! 2 vehicles are required in a typical Texas family situation. EV for daily commute, fossil fuel for long trips.
PS: Toyota, Honda, and the others will be forced to adopt the charging standards!
@kd5auq

.... Toyota, Honda, and the others will be forced to adopt the charging standards ....

That's what the BetaMax makers used to say.
@kd5auq

.... We are stuck with premium unleaded Smarts in America ....

I saw one the other day here: http://graphics1.snopes.com/photos/accident/graphics/smallcar.jpg

Only one of a hundred reasons - including distances and cheap gas - not to own one in America.
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I'm interested when
wkulecz 14th Oct
I'm all in for electric when they have an honest 100 mile range with a "we pay the tow if it doesn't" type of warranty.

Since I have an 80 mile commute and do mostly contraflow freeway driving I'm very satisfied with my Honda Civic hybrid and its honest 40mpg (bit less in the peak of summer when the A/C has to run a lot).
@wkulecz
Why would I want to get a Honda Civic hybird when my 2010 Honda Civic gets 38 MPG highway.
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How many mpg for what driving?
Common+Sense 14th Oct
@brianric
Probably wkulecz's honest 40 includes surface streets so it is not "highway." My 45 mile r/t (plus any lunch, errands, etc) in SanFran Bay Area is so traffic-filled at both ends that is drives my Insight's "honest" mileage to about 46 mpg. when I can actully do highway driving (and keep my speed down) I roll into the mid-50's.
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RE: Electric vehicles still stuck in neutral with consumers
LoverockDavidson_-24231404894599612871915491754222 14th Oct
I like the idea of the electric vehicles but they need to be more practical. They can get you to work and back and that is fine but the problem is when people want to get away for a 3 day weekend and drive somewhere. That's when the 100 mile limit comes in and no charging stations. It would be very hard to pull such a trip unless you want to buy a second car or rent a car which is going to cost more money.
@LoverockDavidson_ : Right on - people are still not willing (or able) to consider multiple vehicles for multiple applications. (AND today's economic conditions make that even more impossible.) Every news coverage or press release I've seen for electric cars accentuates "it's a great commuter car".... BUT to succeed it must be usable for EVERY need, not just commuting!
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Re: calculation of relative economy
WorkflowGuru 16th Oct
@LoverockDavidson_
In your scenario of having only a single electric car providing all transportation, longer trips (e.g. the 3-day wkend) could be addressed by: advanced planning (routing to take advantage of available charging points - visiting friends and family in addition to commercial charging stations; a number of owners/journalists have covered this subject) OR renting an ICE-powered vehicle (probably more economical than owning a second vehicle, depending on frequency and duration, and gives you opportunities to drive cars you wouldn't choose to own) OR taking advantage of car-sharing (GetAround et al) OR using public transportation!

Example: a 3-day weekend in SF - fly into SFO, take BART into the city where, when looking to take a day-trip into Marin, Napa, etc., there are ZipCars and GetAround vehicles all over! (Yes, I realize this level of infrastructure exists in a sad minority of American cities, all the more reason to support addressing it now! Hmm, where'd this soapbox come from...)

With a little thought and willingness to forego juvenile levels of convenience, the journey becomes less expensive, more fun, and improves everyone's experience.
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Except...
aep528 18th Oct
@WorkflowGuru

I travel for the destination, not the journey. I very much dislike the actual traveling, since it is wasted time, so my goal is to get it over with as quickly as possible.
holds up at the Supreme Court, congress will be granted the constitutional right to make it illegal to NOT buy an electric car.
@baggins_z
That's just silly.
@gwartnet
Not long ago, when the Republicans first suggested it, I thought a health insurance mandate was silly. Baggins_z doesn't seem that nutty.
@gwartnet : Yes - but maybe more true than we want to admit!!!
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I would need two cars
dougsyo@... 14th Oct
An electric vehicle could handle my day-to-day just fine (generally no trips over 20 miles one way, and work commute is close enough to walk weather allowing).

But at least once a month I am driving at least 75 miles one way to somewhere. For example, this coming week I have two trips that are each over 300 miles one way, plus local driving while I'm there. In the last twelve months I've taken trips that go 200, 300 (three times), 525, and 750 miles one way, and I don't want to trust those trips to an electric vehicle.
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Range is only one problem
wackoae 14th Oct
@dougsyo@... The side effect of electric vehicles will be an increase in demand for electricity ... raising the cost for EVERYBODY .... even little old grandma who doesn't even own a gas car.
I am still aware of no concrete answers to battery longevity when vehicles are pushed, repeatedly, to their limits AND how much a replacement battery pack will cost.
Forget electric... just get me one of those Emmett Brown specials that runs on coffee grounds & orange peels.
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Infrastructure not ready
GrimmReaperSound 14th Oct
Electric cars are adding to an already topped out electricity infrastructure. What will happen when the country goes all electric with their cars? Rotating blackouts are already happening, add the load from cars and watch what happens.
@GrimmReaperSound The theory is that cars get charged over night when load is low. I realize that goes contrary to the emphasis on charging stations every where, but that was the published thinking on why cars wouldn't kill the electric grid.
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@sbf95070 One or two cars would not be an issue. As soon as you have hundreds of them in one neighborhood that theory goes down to the crapper.
@sbf95070

Which is actually not necessarily true anymore, with utilities offering smart meters and cheaper rates at night, and large industries that operate at night (steel mini-mills with electric-arc furnaces, for example) and alternative energy sources that don't work as well at night, (solar and wind; yes wind, outside of storm fronts, wind is strongest with solar hearing and weakest with solar cooling, so nighttime usage will continue to increase.
So where will the new capacity to deliver the electricity come from -- nothing new in the USA these days. The nuclear plants are all rather old. Where is all the power to come from including the load on transformers and such when millions plug in their cars.

What happened to natural gas for cars and trucks? Anyone recall the Honda HX Civic, which got well over 44MPG on the freeway?
@mytake4this : Actually there is research and development going on for fuel cell vehicles, in order to try and solve storage issues, but even that has a significant infrastructure need. Can you imagine the average driver pulling into a hydrogen refueling station and attempting to connect the complicated mechanism that is necessary to withstand charging the tanks up to about 1500 psi? Will drivers need special certification similar to what is required today for dealing with welding gas? Also, there has to be ongoing concern over (and hopefully research into) details related to highway crash effects for all technologies! Can you imagine a highway crash splitting open storage batteries, and/or scattering high voltage electrodes around? Or, imagine a crash of a fuel cell vehicle where the high pressure tank integrity is compromised, and potential resulting conflagration??? Still many, many details to iron out IMHO.
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Battery swap out
**owly** 14th Oct
Ultimately the only rational way to handle the charging problem is with battery swap out stations, and standardized quick change battery packs. You own the car, but lease the battery pack. Charge at home, but on a trip, you simply pull into a station where robotic equipment swaps out the battery pack in seconds. This would require a high degree of standardization.... which is not unreasonable. The added advantage of this is that battery upgrades would be seamless, and monitoring of capacity and reconditioning, etc would be in the hands of the battery service company. Battery upgrades could be a one time upgrade fee, or a premium that prorated the cost of the upgrade out over a period of time as per customer preference. At any given time there might be 2 or 3 battery technologies in force at any given time, with older ones being phased out as customers make the jump. The monthly lease fees, and charge fees eliminate the shock effect of having to replace many thousands of dollars worth of batteries at once.
The ultimate EV plan would be to use the EV to "jumpstart" alternative energy generation by rolling the purchase of alternative energy capacity investment into the purchase price of the car. You buy some form of locally situated alternative energy generation when you buy the car. It could be shares in a wind farm, tidal generation project, solar farm, or whatever, or actually buy solar panels and place them on your own property. Ultimately this would decentralize power generation, and unload the grid rather than requiring upgrades to the grid in order to support these cars. As cars are junked out, the base of installed alternative energy grows, and of course owners receive dividends, or discounted power.
It seems to me that until the miles per charge technology improves or battery swap stations are as ubiquitous as gas stations that the EV is not practical for long distances, however, since most commutes are shorter than 100 miles and the vast majority of American families already own 2 vehicles it would seem common sense for one of them to be an EV. The big question in my mind is price, if I can buy a vehicle for under $20,000 that is gas powered I cannot imagine why that same vehicle should cost much more for electric. I will grant a price bump for battery but electric motors are stable mass produced products so this bizarre $10,000 jump in price we so frequently see makes no sense. I suspect the first company to offer a sub $25,000 EV will have big sales and if they could drop price below $20,000 they would have a hit on their hands.
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Run, Rabbit, Run!
dwd@... 14th Oct
We need a new survey asking if consumers would buy an EV as a secondary commute only vehicle. I downloaded the PDF report direct from deloitte.com. The word 'second' only occurs 3 times, never in reference to 'second vehicle'. The word 'commute' doesn't occur at all.

As long as manufacturers concentrate on expensive 'EV as your only car' technology, EVs will fail. They need to wake up to EVs as secondary commute only vehicles.

A $60K vehicle with a 100 mile range will never sell well, and using high tech batteries to expand the range only pushes the cost out of the ballpark. Switching to inexpensive low-tech lead acid batteries does drop the range (but still above most folk's commute), but drops the cost to less than comparable gasoline vehicles. At that point you take over the market based on cost saving alone, without needing the appeal of being green.

At my university, one of the Electrical Engineering professors converted a '77 VW Rabbit to electric drive back in the '80s, using '80s battery technology. He's run it on electric for 75,000 miles (2.2 cents/mile) and it's still going. http://discover.mst.edu/2011/10/run-rabbit-run.html
I don't get the interest waxing/waning based on fuel prices. It still takes fossil fuels to charge your electric vehicle. When fuel goes up, so does your electric bill. I would concede it doesn't fluctuate quite as bad as gas but it is effected.
Those who believe they are being green or saving money with an electric car are fooling themselves. Unless you are like the first guy in the comments who gets his electricity for 'free' (there's no such thing as everyone in his area is paying for his free electricity).
The biggest question should be why aren't fuel efficient diesels being made in this country. You can make diesel out soybeans and get 50+ miles to the gallon in a large car.
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@10kwfence - Agree with you 100%!
Reference to my comment on Green cars:
http://www.zdnet.com/tb/1-63532-1179279?tag=talkback-river;1_63532_1179279
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@Spikey_Mike is almost right. The diesel hybrid is the best option right now. Ref 'The last oil shock???: A survival guide to the imminent extinction of petroleum man by David Straham.

In New Zealand, where I live, 70% of our electricity needs comes from renewable energy which comes from natural resources: hydroelectric, wind farms, geothermal. We have tidal options which could potentially supply many times our current electricity needs.

The United States missed a big opportunity when, after Jimmy Carter placed solar panels on The Whitehouse, Ronald Regan tore them down. One of those panels is now in China at a company called Suntech.

You can keep your heads buried in the Arabian sand but there will come a time when 'Occupy WallStreet' like grassroots demonstrations currently associated with more third-world economies will be common in American cities as oil grinds up through $100 a barrel on it's way to $400 a barrel after world oil output peaks sometime around 2015. Even after getting Iraqi & Libyan oil you'll need a pretext to invade Iran before the Chinese get their contracted oil.
@10kwfence : Agree - Europeans have developed a great rep for doing wonders with deisel fuel and turbo designs, accomplishing significantly better MPG and even better acceleration performance. I think more people need to watch episodes of the UK show Top Gear - which has not really emphasized this technology, but also has not ignored it. In my book, US Auto engineering is significantly handicapped by heavy inertia in the petrochem industry as well as in the area of innovative design. And, to really top it off, similar autos in Britain tend to sell for lower prices than the US - so *WHERE* is all the profit going in US auto companies???? Maybe that is some aspect of why Occupy Wall Street got starfted?
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They're stuck in neutral...
WarhavenSC Updated - 14th Oct
... because electric vehicles are rubbish. The range is horrible, and nobody wants to wait 13-20 hours to refuel. Oh sure, there's the rapid recharge option that'll do it in only a 1/2 hour, but this actively damages your batteries.

Also, electric vehicles are the wrong direction for alternative vehicle technology. Batteries are horrible little devices, especially for vehicles. They don't last long, they're expensive (estimates are $13k-$18k to replace your Nissan Leaf batteries after 8 years of use), they're hazardous to manufacture, hazardous to dispose of (full of all sorts of nasty, caustic chemicals), and are an incredibly inefficient means of energy transfer.

Electric vehicles are waste of time and energy, figuratively and literally. There's a better alternative source for vehicles out there that'll appease both the petrol heads and the green well wishers. It's called hydrogen. It has some hurdles that need passing, but if the auto and energy industry had spent as much time and energy on developing hydrogen fuel cells (and similar tech) as they did with the electric car, those hurdles would have been passed by now.

If you want to buy a green vehicle, get a turbodiesel like a Jetta TDI. Their MPG is just as good as a hybrid on a highway (and even better, depending on how aggressive of a driver you are), and they don't have all the nastiness of manufacturing and disposing of batteries as an electric vehicle.
NO ONE wants that Obamacrat crap of a car in America........
Perhaps an electric-only vehicle would benefit from a small generator for emergency power - enough to cruise at (say) 50 mph. With no transmission and air cooled (perhaps with a finned water jacket for sound reduction), it would be quite compact. It could be used to stay mobile once the battery is drained, or as auxiliary power to extend the battery life. Sounds like a reverse prius... It may not be a perfect solution for purists, but it would give unlimited range to a car which would normally run from the battery
My posts keep disappearing. Have I upset someone? Hardly anyone wants these limited use vehicles.
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This site has a major bug....
adornoe@... 14th Oct
in that, once a post is submitted, it doesn't show up in the posts.

If I try to re-submit, I get an error indicating that my post was rejected because it's a duplicate of my last post, but, when I go to read the supposedly "posted" comments, they don't show up.

What's up with that? This bug happens a lot!
@adornoe@... : Refresh the page in your browser, then click on one of the "show all posts", and yours should show up. The "bug" is that new posts are not refreshed after loading to individual browsers.
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I've tried that, and my posts still don't show,
adornoe@... Updated - 14th Oct
and in fact, I've seen some of my posts right after I've posted them, and soon thereafter, they're gone.

But, in the latest case, the site just doesn't show my post, and I've even tried to make it somewhat different in order to get around the error of duplicates, and still, nothing.

In fact, I'll try to make my post again right after I finish posting this response.

Update: Okay, it didn't work.

So, right below, I'll make the same post, just to see if it takes in this sub-thread:

Next update: That didn't take either...

So, what gives?

Is there some sort of automatic censoring software that recognizes what's being posted and automatically deletes or refuses the post?

In fact, right after I posted the comments that are being "deleted", I saw the post, and then I refreshed, and, Poof!, it's gone again.

I don't get it.
My issues have revolved around the range and the use of battery technology in cold environments. The area I live in is cold in the winter, and the terrain is quite hilly. Both of these reduce the range and reliability of an EV to the point where they are useless. In the long run, what really needs to happen is that we have to invest in light rail that can move people around at 100 MPH (and make it run on electricity) so that we can use EV's at the terminal points. The continued expectation of driving individual cars around from any random point to random point is unrealistic and unsustainable. We either change the mode we choose, or at some point the unavailability of fuel will make it all a moot point.
@always-a-geek : Problem with light rail is that it hardly works for ultra-urban locations, and does not work at all for suburban or rural areas - so that concept only partially addresses overall national needs. As Los Angelites learned, their travel patterns are so diverse that it was impossible to design routes that would satisfy even a portion of of the commuting crowd.
Heh - I was among the first to actually try out an electric "yard tractor", pioneered by GE way back in the early 1970's. As an employee I was offered the chance to purchase one at a significant discount, which was still about 20% premium over a typical name brand gas one such as Wheel Horse (John Deere was not in that market then). The experience was interesting, and I honestly thought that GE was interested in my evaluation and feedback as an engineer.... So much for high hopes. They never surveyed me, and my attempts to provide feedback were met with a typical "We don't have anyone gathering that data currently. The ultimate insult for me personally was that after several years GE sold that design to Wheel Horse. Wheel Horse tried to market it for a year or so, and quickly scuttled the concept entirely. The "vehicle" suffered many of the same maladies as today's automotive attempts, including energy storage issues, duration of charge, and re-charging time. Where GE marketing really lost it (and apparently today's auto marketers are making the same errors) was in their assumption of what constitutes "typical usage". I was not able to completely mow my half acre of lawn on one charge in the heat of summer, and a recharge took overnight. That also limited what additional use I might anticipate for a typical yard tractor. I submit that aspect is exactly why a range of 100 miles per charge for todays' attempts are panned so much - you have already seen evidence that commutes of some interested parties are in excess of 50 miles each way. One other point to consider is the poor driving performance. My "yard tractor" owners manual was very much upfront to explain the "driving experience will be different".... The worse experience was that when the motor bogged down, it was necessary to REDUCE speed, in order to regain torque - just the opposite of what everyone is used to from Internal Combustion engines. So, I posit there will be a long row ahead before widespread consumer acceptance can be anticipated.
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juvysan1234 14th Oct
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Under what conditions are the mileage claims being made? How much would driving in a Northern Winter (after dark) cut the mileage? You would need lights, heater, defroster, and wipers running. I am sure that would cut the range considerably!
I will buy an electric car when you (car companies) meet the following:

1. 8 hours driving at 50 mph or 400 miles with heater or AC on.
2. cost under 20K for small car just like gas cars now, no premium like the prius has.
3. charge time = meal time or 45 minutes or so.

give me those and I will write the check!
The best answer to the short range, and long charge time is to have removable standardized battery packs. When you pull into a station, an attendant removes your drained battery (with a pallet jack or mini forklift if necessary) and replaces it with a fully charged one for a small fee.
One other problem is the life of the battery packs. Early one in hybrids only had a life of 3 years (50-60,000 miles). I suspect they have improved that somewhat, but at $10,000 a battery pack, that can be a real hit.

I like to get well-built cars and run them a long time. I have a 93 Ford Ranger that does about 23 MPG (my kids use it now) and I use an 02 that does about 27 mpg as my 55 mile commute car.

Just bought an Elantra (standard gas) for $18,000 that really will do 40 mpg highway. These do not have silly range limitations and still work well. When electrics get that price and dependability, I might consider one. But then, why should I have to stop twice on my 250 mile trip to visit my parents just to recharge. Electrics have a long way to go
Amazing the average person who probably struggles to make their monthly budget is unwilling to spend more on a vehicle that does less. Boy that is so surprising!! Where else do people make such interesting spending decisions??
Electric cars are expensive and inconvenient.
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lwmhfeb 62 zkw
cmakrekdw1201-24379049711684814013393121511335 25th Nov
quyqmm,dquygzxg95, jtnzu.

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