The Orphan Gets Orphaned Again

Jeff Raikes is leaving Microsoft, and that means that once again, Microsoft Dynamics is a victim of the shifting sands and musical chairs at a Microsoft that seems less and less dedicated to its enterprise applications offerings. While it’s clear that there remains official, executive-level commitment to Dynamics, in the person of both its latest boss, Kirill Tatarinov, as well as Steve Ballmer himself, you have to wonder what Microsoft is going to with Dynamics now that the man with the plan is gone.

And it’s not very reassuring to see the resume of the Raikes’ replacement either, Stephen Elop: Juniper Networks may be a decent credential to help run an enterprise apps group, insofar as the Junipers of the world are heavy consumers of this kind of technology, but Macromedia, the other star position in Elop’s firmament, isn’t exactly the best finishing school for someone to decide the fate of Microsoft’s AX, GP, NAV, and other enterprise software products.

What’s a shame about Raikes departure, other than the fact that Tatarinov has only been running the Dynamics show for six months, and now has to sit down and sort out a new strategy with Elop, is that Raikes was the one who really started the ball rolling for a Dynamics group that had been drifting for a while. He kicked off the Duet joint venture with SAP, which may or may not have been good for Dynamics but definitely galvanized the rest of Microsoft into thinking strategically about its enterprise apps. And Raikes then brought Dynamics under the same umbrella as the Office group, further enhancing the synergy between Dynamics and the rest of Microsoft and giving it a much-needed, top level sponsor.

In my last meeting with the Dynamics group, it was clear that the leadership changes at Dynamics had left it without a strong plan for 2008 – at the time. Lots was in the works, so we analysts were told. But there was little detail offered, except for the promise that it would all be sorted out by the time Dynamics’ user conference kicked off in March.

Now with a new top dog in the kennel, it’s clear that whatever strategy Tatarinov had in mind will need to be rethought, re-presented, and probably re-jiggered before March. That might be enough time to pull it off, certainly it’s enough time to get the PowerPoints ready. But can Dynamics really stomach another major management shift and another round of justifying its position in a company that is more and more looking everywhere (search, for instance) other than enterprise applications for its future growth?

We shall see, which unfortunately has become the mantra of this Dynamics watcher: wait and see has been the game for the last year, and it looks like it could continue for a while. Until Microsoft and Elop either recommit to Dynamics – desperately needed in my opinion – or figure out a buyer (SAP would be my first choice) – and put the whole issue of what the heck is Microsoft going to do with Dynamics to bed once and for all.