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Hardware 2.0

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

Five ways Windows 8 could fail

By | February 15, 2012, 9:57am PST

Summary: Here are five concerns that I still have related to Microsoft’s next version of Windows.

The more I see of the Windows 8 platform, the more i like it. The other day I got the opportunity to see a build that is very close to the Consumer Preview expected at the end of the month and I was impressed with the changes that have been made since the release of the Developer Preview back in September last year.

But no matter how well refined and well rounded the operating system is, it could still become another Vista around Microsoft’s neck.

Here are five concerns that I still have related to Microsoft’s next version of Windows:

1. Touch could still turn out to be a fad

Microsoft has put a lot of time, effort and money into making Windows 8 a touch-based operating system. Sure, you can still drive it with a keyboard and mouse — thankfully — but key areas such as the Start Screen and built-in applications have been heavily remodelled, so that they’ll work with both pudgy fingers and a precise cursor.

It seems to me that Microsoft is betting that touch (and tablets) will be a big thing during the reign of Windows 8, but that the company is making his assumption based on one device — the iPad. That worries me. Tablets have been around in one shape or form for over a decade, but each new model withered and died on the vine.

The fact that there’s a market for the iPad doesn’t mean that there’s a broader market for tablets in general. Take the enormous success of the iPod. There was many a company that saw the success of the iPod and thought that would translate into a broader market for MP3 players in general. It wasn’t the case, and companies lost a lot of money pursuing a dead market.

And that’s just one cautionary tale.

Tablets aside for one moment, it’s hard to see PC OEMs seriously embracing touch on desktops and notebooks because of cost. At best it’s going to create a divide between cheaper keyboard/mouse systems and pricier touch-enabled systems, but the problem there is that OEMs are having a difficult time shifting high-end systems.

Microsoft has yet to answer what is to me the million-dollar question: What advantages does Windows 8 offer over Windows 7 on non-touch enabled systems?

2. ARM confusion

Microsoft has finally clarified some nagging questions I had about the Windows 8 on ARM (WOA) platform. Specifically, Microsoft has said “WOA PCs will be clearly labelled and branded so as to avoid customer confusion with Windows 8 on x86/64.” While that’s good news, I still wonder whether the presence of two such different versions of Windows on devices won’t cause problems.

With Windows 7 we finally (at least pretty much) managed to draw a line under the whole “Windows 32-bit vs. Windows 64-bit” debate that had been confusing consumers since Windows XP. The problem with the x86 vs. ARM debate is that there’s going to be a unification down the line and the two platforms will always have a gulf between them.

How exactly are consumers going to react to two different sets of marketing messages? I still don’t think that most consumers have a clear idea of the differences between the various flavors of Windows (and that’s a pretty simple thing really). I’m not sure whether folks who aren’t sure as to whether they was Windows Home Premium or Ultimate are well equipped to deal with x86 vs. ARM.

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Adrian Kingsley-Hughes is an internationally published technology author who has devoted over a decade to helping users get the most from technology.

Disclosure

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

All opinions expressed on Hardware 2.0 are those of Adrian Kingsley-Hughes. Every effort is made to ensure that the information posted is accurate. If you have any comments, queries or corrections, please contact Adrian via the email link here. Any possible conflicts of interest will be posted below. [Updated: February 23, 2010] - Adrian Kingsley-Hughes has no business relationships, affiliations, investments, or other actual/potential conflicts of interest relating to the content posted so far on this blog.

Biography

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes is an internationally published technology author who has devoted over a decade to helping users get the most from technology -- whether that be by learning to program, building a PC from a pile of parts, or helping them get the most from their new MP3 player or digital camera.

Adrian has authored/co-authored technical books on a variety of topics, ranging from programming to building and maintaining PCs. His most recent books include "Build the Ultimate Custom PC", "Beginning Programming" and "The PC Doctor's Fix It Yourself Guide". He has also written training manuals that have been used by a number of Fortune 500 companies.

Adrian also runs a popular blog under the name The PC Doctor, where he covers a range of computer-related topics -- from security to repairing and upgrading.

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http://wednice.ru/ 19th Feb
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if a "claasic" UI is still included?
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@William Farrel
he classic UI thats been currently shown in the developers copy really has no relation to what the classic ui has been. The loss of a full desktop that doesnt just take you back to the metro ui doesnt count. The removal of the start button means that your once central area to find what you need is gone so you have to retrain. The extensive use of the ribbon is a ball buster also which will need to retrain people on. If people have used an os with a handful of non changebale features for almost 20 years then you take that all away and say here now this is what we are making you use it just doesn't go well. Now figure in retraining the IT department to deal with completely new issues they have yetr to see and your talking massive costs for any company which just doesn't make it worth it.
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Because it's different
Richard Flude 15th Feb
@William Farrel seriously believes Win8 can be rolled out in the enterprise without training? Another post to tag;-)

Adrian's points are spot on; touch on the desktop is a non-starter, winPC market in decline, 32/64-bit was a joke (even in Win7) but about to be topped with ARM ( really windows branding exercise - aka dot), MS marketplace failures (Microsoft Points, seriously) and enterprises looking for productivity savings (Win8 promising the opposite).

Advice to MS: Get ride of your clown CEO, slash R&D expenditures, ride the monopoly cash cows, return money to shareholders and disappear into irrelevance.
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@Richard Flude

"touch on the desktop is a non-starter"
So says you. If it is or it isn't it dosnt matter a bit. Windows 8 isn't going to cost more just because its optimized to work with touch, and the none touch functionality is every bit as good or better then Windows 7 it will be a no complaints issue either way. And one more thing for the road on this one. For several years now there have been too many complaints about MS being caught flat footed on new advances. How flat footed would MS be if touch did catch on in about a year or two and MS had nothing ready. Its people like you who cause people to go nuts; wrong if you do it, wrong if you don't do it. Well, MS is doing it and in such a way it will work just great in either event. Its win win for MS and loose loose for the nay sayers.

"winPC market in decline, 32/64-bit was a joke (even in Win7) but about to be topped with ARM"

Well well. This comment is just plain uninformed and downright nutty. All I'm going to say is that for the uninformed; the demise of the Windows desktop/laptop PC environment is grossly exaggerated for one massive reason thats as plain as day once one considers the Windows XP effect and what it really means. People have held on to Windows XP for so incredibly long for TWO, count 'em, TWO reasons. One, Since XPSP2 Windows operating systems have been so good there has not been a compelling reason to upgrade particularly if your hardware is still running well. Reason #2, for several years now peoples hardware has become so good even on the moderate budget level their hardware is still running well. So few people need to upgrade due to lagging hardware or sorely outdated operating systems. That is THE primary reason why the PC market is in a slumpish mode, not at all because PC's are being replaced in ANY meaningful way by smartphone.

Desktops being replaced by smartphones...my God. A concept still so currently laughable I cannot believe anyone has the stones to even say it, but alas the narrow and simple minded do. Sure people do a lot of odds and sods computing by phone, I do, and plenty of it trust me, but only about 5% of it has any possibility of replacing what still needs to be done on a PC. Its so obvious it bothers me a lot that I just took the time to type it.

"MS marketplace failures".
Well, this one is like so much dust in the wind. Reality proves it to be thus. Whatever failures there have been in the MS Marketplace have had pretty much zero impact on Windows and any continued failure will have just about exactly the precise same impact on Windows. Apple needs iTunes desperately to make the iPad and iPhone and even iPod to work in the market place. Windows as it turns out has never needed that kind of thing and really never will. All that is just MS seeing if they can build up another cash cow, whether they can or cannot will not create any failure for Windows whatsoever. AT ALL. It never has and no rational reason why it ever would at this point.

" return money to shareholders and disappear into irrelevance."
Well....at least you make it clear the kind of clear cut bias you have that lead you to say such irrational things.

Hope your still around these boards in a couple years, I'm going to just love linking this ridiculous post of yours back to you and watch you squirm as you try and explain why you appear to be so horribly wrong but are somehow still right, because thats what guys like you do. All the time.
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Not all MS marketplaces suck, see XBLA
Ndiaz.fuentes Updated - 16th Feb
@Richard Flude Though I believe you have some valid points, I have an issue with one piece of your comment. You state "MS marketplace failures (Microsoft Points, seriously)", but while the Marketplace for Vista failed and the one on WP7 isn't huge, you must take into account the huge success that is XBLA. The Live Arcade marketplace on Xbox (owned by MS) is HUGE. I'm not saying this guarantees the success of the Windows marketplace, but it certainly hints at the possibilities. It all comes down to us devs, I guess.
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Typo
Ammalgam 15th Feb
I???ve talked to in enterprise have with Windows 8 is that they can???t see a compelling for touch to be in the OS
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@Ammalgam
This is good news to hear.
@Ammalgam ... Microsoft understands that they cannot compete with the iPad unless they can offer a touch UI on Windows, ported to a tablet. Besides, Windows on ARM will scare the daylights out of Intel.
interface mechanisms. Meaning you can't design one without sacrificing utility in the other. This is why Launchpad in Lion generally winds up stuck in a dusty corner. Basically, what we are seeing in Windows 8 is Microsoft copying Apple again. Only this time, they are copying Apple stupidity.
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Microsoft's biggest problem is that today, writers like you and sites like this have a very big influence on a vocal minority of users. So while you folks continue to seed the doubt about if Windows 8 will work with keyboard and mice, users like me will actually install the OS on a desktop in a corporate setting and actually test it out. But I don't have the reach of a CNET, I'm not a tech blogger, I'm just a tech user who finds that Window8 works much like Windows 7 does with current software, new software will be Metro, but guess what, for some reason keyboard and mouse also works with those.

Before we start listing all the reasons why something will fail, how about we wait to see at least what Microsoft has to offer in the consumer preview. I will point out that I'm curious about how they're going to market the ARM version of Windows, that to me is your only valid point.

BTW, as a indie developer I'm almost half wishing that the bigger developers are slow on the Win8 uptake. There will be 100's of millions of users using Win8 after it's released, I want all of them for myself!
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RE: Five ways Windows 8 could fail
TechJunkiesCA 15th Feb
@rwalrond I just couldn't agree more.
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RE: Five ways Windows 8 could fail
thoiness Updated - 15th Feb
@rwalrond I'd be more excited to hear the ways Windows 8 will enhance our operating systems, instead of always hearing blog after blog on Metro and whether or not they like it. Metro is a big deal because it's new and has some potential, but it is only a small part of it, and an optional one at that. It's akin to basing an entire OS on where they stuck the time on the taskbar. Enough already, that chiz doesn't matter.

I think the term you were looking for was FUD.
They are all trolling using FUD.

If we are only talking about Windows 8 tablets, then start titling blogs as such. I'm excited about them too, but I care a lot less about the tablet architecture than I do the Netbook/Desktop one.
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@rwalrond
But see your just one opinion. As techie myself who has installed windows 8 since its release to devlopers I find it hugely different then windows 7 or any other windows of the past. I see the huge headaches this os will casue and the loss of simplicity which is why windows has had such a success. Now remove 2 of the most basic must have options in their entirty such as a full fledge classic desktop with start button and you have just alienated 85% of your loyal customer base. Human as a whole tend to not like change once they have a set form of doing so. For almost 20 years people have trained and done work with windows os with a few things that have been constant and they have grown comfortable and efficient in how to do so. Now take that away and say here this is all new and you no longer do things as you have and to make it harder we removed what has always been there good luck...just very very bad. I mean anyone who has an tech clue can see the failure about to come with this. A quick look at what a fail the windows phone has become since the intro of metro ui and remval of the known desktop of windows 6 and earlier clearly shows the demand or want from customers for this poorly designed os just is non existant. Unless Microsoft offers an install disc that asks if you want a traditional windows os install meaning x86 based full classic desktop with start button and no metro touchcentric features or the option to go with the new metro look versions for pc or arm thenit is a fail. The bet is not on touch or tablets but on work pcs with millions who use them and are acustom to how they work.The biggest mstake is trying to force a one os for all microsoft device as there are way to many devices that need completely different setups. Laptops and pcs use one, Netbooks another, phones another, and then add tablets. They must all play nice but the os structures have to fit te device job and windows 8 fails handily at this.
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RE: Five ways Windows 8 could fail
rwalrond Updated - 15th Feb
@Fletchguy I've been in the industry long enough to remember when using a keyboard and DOS based application was what we defined as normal and how this Mouse and GUI was going to alienate customers. Multi-tasking was a buzz word for make your computer crash. You see things can change, things are changing. You mentioned WP7 but what you failed to mention is that WM 6 was already free falling and the reason? Apple changed up the game, not because Microsoft released WP7.

The classic desktop is not going away, just the way we use the start menu.
Will Microsoft succeed? I think they will, but we'll all have to wait and see. One thing for sure, it would be a mistake for Microsoft to sit back and wait for Google, Apple or some other company to lead computing into the next era. A change was needed and this will be just as big as Win16 to Win32 but not nearly as big as DOS to Windows.

You see, I fully expect my computing future will be to carry around 1 device not 3 or 2, but one device that can wirelessly connect to shells (desktop, laptop, tablet) and give me my information when I want it. Where not going to get that future if we stay stuck in the present or the past or don't take chances. I applaud Microsoft for taking a chance.
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So wrong.
Cayble Updated - 15th Feb
@Fletchguy

All I'm going to say is two things, first, so wrong.

Second, seriously, don't tell me that even in your heart of hearts (as is often said) you really believe what you just said. Either that or you love to comment on things you know nothing about. Every single report I have read by any credible reviewer has said it appears Windows 8 will work just A1 with a mouse and keyboard.

Make some attempt to be accurate and real.
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@Fletchguy Your 100% correct, I'll be sticking with Win7 in may gaming rig for a while.
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@rwalrond
Why hasn't Microsoft demonstrated how "good and great" Windows-8 will be on laptops/desktops using traditional keyboard/mouse input? That would do a lot to minimize FUD, and, possibly, encourage business users that Windows-8 does offer their laptop/desktop users major productivity gains.
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They will ... beginning VERY SOON.
mwagner@... 15th Feb
@TsarNikky
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RE: Five ways Windows 8 could fail
rwalrond Updated - 15th Feb
@TsarNikky I agree, Microsoft should have demonstrated it more. I would assume they didn't because the first public release was really for developers to get apps ready so that when the consumer version was ready, consumers would experience it themselves.

In reality Microsoft did demonstrate and talk about the fact that it will work just as well with keyboard and mouse as it does with touch, but that doesn't get you the same amount of page views as saying Windows 8 won't work with mouse and keyboard.
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@TsarNikky

http://www.winsupersite.com/article/windows8/windows-8-tip-mouse-140635

http://www.techradar.com/news/software/operating-systems/hands-on-windows-8-review-1025259?artc_pg=4

Plenty more around and the general consensus seems to be that with some minor practice, if you were a power user before with keyboard and mouse in no time you can be a Windows 8 power user with keyboard and mouse.

I have to believe that realistic thinking people would have to believe that MS would know far far better then to allow anything less then that to be the case.
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We'll know soon enough
Robert Hahn 15th Feb
When talking about whether Windows 8 could fail, I think it's important to define 'failure'. Regardless of what they might say publicly after the fact, Microsoft will consider Windows 8 a failure if it does not enable Microsoft to gain considerable traction (> 30-40% share) in the tablet market.

No one seriously doubts that consumer PC buyers are all going to accept and learn to love Windows 8 once it becomes the OS that ships on new PCs. Similarly, not even Microsoft expects a wholesale conversion by enterprise customers, most of whom are just now weaning themselves off Windows XP. If '7' becomes 'the new XP' Microsoft won't be surprised. This happens. Microsoft it used to it.

So it all comes down to tablets. Microsoft seems to believe that there is a large market for tablets that can run genuine Office apps. Since the defining characteristic of tablets is that they have no keyboard, that's an interesting belief. It will either turn out to be right or wrong, and when it does we'll know whether Windows 8 succeeded.

In the meantime we shall be inundated with assurances from Munchkins that Windows 8 is an unstoppable force that will sweep the globe, tossing aside everything in its path. But that's just their PR department writing scripts. When people have to actually part with their money, anything can happen.
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Do you write your own script
William Farrel 15th Feb
@Robert Hahn

or does someone else?

You're posts don't sound convincing or all too honest, IMHO.
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The Great Carnak
Robert Hahn 15th Feb
What could possibly be dishonest about saying, "It will either turn out to be right or wrong, and when it does we'll know whether Windows 8 succeeded"? These are events that haven't happened yet. If it's dishonesty you want, find the guy who says he already knows how it will turn out.
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@Robert Hahn ... for MS to retain their market-share. Microsoft has to be able to offer a tablet which is fully-compatible with Windows and it has to come it at a price-point (and specifications) comparable to that of the iPad. Microsoft is betting the farm on their ability to successfully port Windows to a tablet.
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@mwagner@...

It was already stated by Microsoft many times, that the Windows on tablets will not be Windows. Wonder, why they had to name it Windows in the first place.. that is going to bite them back.
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RE: Five ways Windows 8 could fail
SamWilkinson 15th Feb
@Robert Hahn above post flagged by Loverock Davidson.

People, anything posted that opposes Microsoft is flagged by Loverock, and if you continue to post things against Microsoft your account will be deleted because ZDNet pays him to be here.
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test
Dietrich T. Schmitz * Your Linux Advocate 15th Feb
test
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Microsoft will hedge their bets
Dietrich T. Schmitz * Your Linux Advocate 15th Feb
@Dietrich T. Schmitz * Your Linux Advocate

Recall, how many SKUs of Windows 7 were created?

The same will happen with 8 and the market will pick and choose what's best for a given use case.

Touch will be its own SKU, perhaps on x86 in addition to WOA.
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@Dietrich T. Schmitz * Your Linux Advocate

I doubt there will be a Windows 8 [SKU] AND a Windows 8 [SKU] for Touch for all SKU's.

Windows 8 has touch built-in from the get-go across all SKU's. Period.
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Test?
itpro_z 15th Feb
@Dietrich T. Schmitz * Your Linux Advocate I used to wonder why you did the Test thing, but now I understand. Most of the time when I try to post a comment to the main thread it simply disappears, sometimes requiring me to post several times before it actually goes through. One would think a "tech" site like ZDNet could figure out how to make a working comment app, but I have issues at others as well.
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@Dietrich T. Schmitz * Your Linux Advocate I'm so confused... You mean Windows 8 ARM comes pre-installed on Windows 8 tablets? You don't say...

And if Metro is included on every version of Windows, why would a SKU be needed for x86 on touch screen? I think we're grasping at straws here.
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Great article
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RE: Five ways Windows 8 could fail
Loverock Davidson- 15th Feb
All 5 of these concerns you need not worry about.
1. Even if touch is a fad, it will still work the way they intended it to and will be the best design for a touch based interface. You don't have to have touch since you can plug in the keyboard and mouse. The choice is yours.
2. This one is easy. X86 on the PC and ARM on the mobile devices. The consumer won't even have to think about it.
3. With the release of Microsoft Windows 8 the PC market will pick up. I haven't heard anything about a crashing PC market except on ZDNet and their whole "Post-PC" theory. PCs will always be around.
4. App ecosystem is already in place from the success of WP7.
5. Enterprises that don't adapt to the new way of doing Microsoft things will die. They need to learn Microsoft is helping them make their lives easier.
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@Loverock Davidson-

About point 2 I hope you're wrong. I've been waiting for x86 tablets for a long time. A tablet which comes with a keyboard docking or that is a laptop convertible but x86 is my world and ARM will never get further in my world than the little smartphone attached to my belt (be it Android or Windows Phone or something else).
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Saying is not believing
Robert Hahn 15th Feb
    I've been waiting for x86 tablets for a long time.
You're a perfect example of why it's dangerous to trust market research. Ask people if they'd like a Shigawizzle if you made one, and they'll say "yes." As soon as you make one and put it in the stores, they don't buy it.

C'mon, x86 tablets have been around for ten years. If you really wanted one, you'd have bought one. But you haven't. And neither have all the other people who say that's what they want. HP and Microsoft announced the "Slate PC" in November, 2010. HP planned to build 5,000, and was ecstatic when demand was almost 9,000 units. This while Apple was selling iPads by the millions.
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RE: Five ways Windows 8 could fail
rwalrond Updated - 15th Feb
@Robert Hahn, come on now, the kind of x86 tablets that lepoete is talking about have not been around for 10 years. The one good thing that Windows on ARM will do is get Intel to finally wake up and create a chip that will allow x86 tablets to be as slim, light and long lasting as ARM based device. With the added usability of Windows 8, I dare you to point out an x86 tablet in the last 10 years that fit all those criteria.

I own both the EP121 and the Samsung Tablet I got from Build (which is now my desktop replacement) both those tablets are incredibly powerful, but both have some draw backs that will need to be addressed if x86 tablets are going to make use forget ARM.
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RE: Five ways Windows 8 could fail
ScorpioBlue 15th Feb
The one good thing that Windows on ARM will do is get Intel to finally wake up and create a chip that will allow x86 tablets to be as slim, light and long lasting as ARM based device. With the added usability of Windows 8, I dare you to point out an x86 tablet in the last 10 years that fit all those criteria.

How do you know? Robert mentioned their past history since that's the only guide we have to fall back on.

At this point in time, your analysis is nothing more than wishful thinking and conjecture.
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Breakout success?
Robert Hahn 15th Feb
@rwalrond
The difference between the x86 tablets that have been around for ten years and the ones you're talking about isn't night and day. There's incremental improvement, to be sure. But incremental improvement rarely turns a dud product that's been around for a long time into a blockbuster hit.

Look at the HP Slate PC. The price is not out of line. It gets decent reviews. Are you trying to tell us that the Slate PC sells in the 9,000 units/year range while the iPad sells 30 million per year because of a few hours' difference in battery life?

Maybe Windows 8 will prove to be a magic elixir. It's just that there haven't been too many of those in the history of the computer business.
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RE: Five ways Windows 8 could fail
SamWilkinson 15th Feb
@Loverock Davidson-

1. Touch isn't a fad, it's here to stay and dinosaurs like you need to go away.
2. Won't matter with a $700 starting price no one will want a Windows 8 tablet when Apple's starts at $499 and others are cheaper.
3. No, it won't. The enterprise has barely gone over 50% the rest are on Windows XP...no one is going to want to move to Windows 8 this fast, and the ONLY reason it's coming out is Ballmer has to backtrack and eat his words because of the success of iPad, but you're too clueless to see that.
4. WP7 is NOT a success, it holds only 5% of the market...again, you're clueless.
5. Enterprises are using other things besides Windows..I talked to a colleague the other day who stated that integration of multiple platforms in the enterprise is critical today and if you don't know Linux, Unix and Windows you don't stand a chance at survival.

Once again I've shot you down and you are a clueless fool.
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@SamWilkinson Wow, did you even read his post?
1. re-read what he said.
2. re-read what he said. I agree, ARM based devices will probably be cheaper.
3. re-read what he said. If you don't think the PC market picks up each time a new version of Windows is released, you might want to Googl.. BING it.
4. WP7 has over 50k new apps in one year, seems like it's off to a decent start. Yes market share hasn't exploded but that's not what he was talking about.
5. I can't say I agree with him on this one either, but Microsoft commands 90% of the Market, so whatever they do, Enterprise must pay attention to.

6. I don't even know why I bothered feeding you.
  • Flagged
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RE: Five ways Windows 8 could fail
ScorpioBlue 15th Feb
1. re-read what he said.

I read it but it was so child-like it was hard to take seriously.

2. re-read what he said. I agree, ARM based devices will probably be cheaper.

How much cheaper? They'll have to be in the $200-300 range if they want to steal the thunder.

3. re-read what he said. If you don't think the PC market picks up each time a new version of Windows is released, you might want to Googl.. BING it.

Not during economic downturns they don't. You could have the greatest OS in the world but if nobody's buying...

Besides, no BING used here.

4. WP7 has over 50k new apps in one year, seems like it's off to a decent start.

See point 3 again.

Yes market share hasn't exploded but that's not what he was talking about.

Why not? Doesn't MS have the 'greatest OS' in the world?

5. I can't say I agree with him on this one either, but Microsoft commands 90% of the Market, so whatever they do, Enterprise must pay attention to.

Through their own monopolistic inertia. And they will have to pay attention to Enterprise as well.

6. I don't even know why I bothered feeding you.

Uh...because you're an idi0t? No?
  • Flagged
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RE: Five ways Windows 8 could fail
DannyO_0x98 Updated - 15th Feb
@rwalrond (whose comments may be viewed underneath mine)

I did try to look up (Google) a graph of pc sales. I didn't spend that a long a time on it, though, so better research is clearly possible.

I would have loved to see a graph of sales by year, so in the Windows os release years of 1995, 1998, 1999, 2001, 2006, and 2009, we should see a steeper slope in the year of or following. (I believe Vista was December 2006 and Win7 was October 2009.) Didn't find it, so don't know.

My recollection was that 95 and 98 did spur sales as people had to move to the 486 in order to get the gui, and maybe there was a spike with Win2000, but otherwise, people don't really care what flavor of Windows is on the computer they're about to buy. (Do I need to add Vista*, which did have more demands on a system and could not run to full experience on many sub-3-year-old computers and on the netbooks that were soon to happen.)

I did find a pcWorld article from March 2007 where an analyst was opining that Vista was not driving sales growth. To be clear, this doesn't mean that there was no pc sales growth at the time, it meant that growth could be explained by population and economic growth and falling prices bringing the pc to new markets.

While I clearly have not proven SamWilkinson's Point 3, I don't think you have disproven it, and I followed some of your instructions.

As we are speculating, yes, a collapse of the pc market, unless it is offset by a rise in Microsoft's mobile revenues would hurt Microsoft. As far as hurting the product, Windows 8, it doesn't really matter what it says on the side of the box [he said anachronistically], when people buy a computer, they are buying a Microsoft os, for the most part. If the collapse did happen and Windows 8 was delayed for another reason, Microsoft would still have a long cold Winter 12/13.
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@Loverock Davidson-

To add to your points above, let's not forget that the "Chicken little sky is falling" perspective of the PC market is not going to result in an overnight collapse of PC sales.

While PC sales may not be growing much, there are still some 400M+ laptops and PC's sold every year, not to mention all the memory, HDD, graphics cards, screens, etc. that people buy to extend the life of their existing computers.

The PC ecosystem is still very, VERY buoyant, especially considering that the entire world is still reeling from considerable global economic difficulties compounded by many major environmental disasters (Japanese tsunami, Thai floods, various major quakes around the world, etc).

But let's also be honest here: Windows 8 introduces a brand new user experience and app platform which will take some time for developers and users to adapt to. I have no doubt that we'll start to see some really compelling metro-style user experiences appear in the coming months and years as people figure out how to build apps and experiences for the "Post GUI???" era.

While all that is happening, Microsoft will continue to evolve and improve it's platforms and tools to better support these new app experiences.

It'll take a release or two for the new metro-style UXP to gain critical mass, but when it does, it's going to be a goldrush.
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@bitcrazed Which is exactly why Microsoft is doing this now, right after a successful Windows 7 launch. By the time Windows 9 rolls around they will have ironed out all the kinks from Windows 8. To me this is the best time for Microsoft to introduce such a change.
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@rwalrond .. you've contradicted yourself
thx-1138_@... Updated - 16th Feb
" ... Which is exactly why Microsoft is doing this now, right after a successful Windows 7 launch. By the time Windows 9 rolls around they will have ironed out all the kinks from Windows 8. .. "

So, acknowledging that Win 7 is a runaway success: a la XP (and will likely be the staple desktop OS for most enterprise / org's / .edu's, you then add:

" ... To me this is the best time for Microsoft to introduce such a change. "

So you basically shoot down your own assertion by pretty much implying, "hey Win 7 is barely out of diapers ... but hey! let's throw a completely new creature at the masses." So which is it?? I mean, you can't have your cake and eat it.

What would have been better would have been to allow Win 7 far more time to build traction (proper) .. ideally 4-5 years, then to slowly implement changes to the public with a new platform / systems architecture (i.e. WOA).

For mine, it would have been a far wiser move for Redmond to make W8 a tablet-ONLY OS (..at least initially). The reason i say that, is that it would have given them an opportunity to (1) let Win 7 keep sales and market momentum whilst (2) simultaneously allowing W8 the opportunity to gain traction against the iPad & iOS - or at least gauge whether or not the public are even interested (en masse).

The most important differentiator in possible, flow-on scenarios being that if W8 tanks on tablet, MS still has the strength of W7 to fall back on. As it stands, they have placed all the proverbial eggs in one basket (W8 cross-platform, desktop-PC & Tablets). The obvious, worse case scenario being that if W8 tanks in the eye of consumers, MS is left picking up the pieces (again) - with the lost time, revenue and market rep' that goes with it.

Having W7 & W8 existing in such a relatively short time frame of 3-5 years sends out a message of panic and confusion. Personally, i can't see it happening with W8; this is bad timing - esp. given the seriously depressed economy worldwide and a reticent public that dislike drastic changes in user experience.

I will agree with you on one semantic: WOA & W8 aren't particularly bad ideas. The real problem is MS's bad timing in a rushed push toward a new paradigm.
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RE: Five ways Windows 8 could fail
Fletchguy Updated - 15th Feb
@Loverock Davidson-
I have to question if you get out much or keep up with current tech trends....

1. Not really the new windows 8 is heavily more geared towards touch and has become cumbersome and non mouse keyboard friendly. If you have been using the dev copy this is obvious since day one as nothing is natural or flows with a full pc use with mouse and keyboard its like the os fights you.
2.But will all pcs be non arm based what about hybrids such as ultra books or netbooks?

3.You haven't seen how bad the pc market has been struggling including the surplus of hardware due to poorer then even expected sales?? Do you have a tv or internet as this is a daily issues for last 3-5 years.Might want to turn them on..

4.Success of wp7??? You mean the phone that carriers refuse to bring in and can't be given away with under 5% in the toal market in 3 years???? The wp7 ha been so far an ultra fail ..again might want to tune in once a week to keep up.The Microsoft app store for wp7 is pathetic at best with them having to beg developers to make anything for it.

5.How is costing companies millions and billions helping them? Creating a completely different os that none of their employess will know how to use creatiing disorder and low productivity in the office is helping?? If they were helping they would listen to their consumers and improe upon what they have and not scrap it for the unknown at one of the worse possible fiscal stages in history.....
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@Fletchguy I don't chime in too much, relatively speaking, in these nerd wars. But, sometimes you have to counter someone's lack of knowledge and/or opinion based "facts".

Windows Phone was released in October of 2010 in Europe and November 2010 in the U.S. If going by the Gregorian Calendar, that would mean the OS has been in existence for a year and 3-4 months. In that timespan the marketplace has accrued nearly 65,000 apps from its initial 1,000 at launch. If compared to other Phone OSes in the same span, within their existences, that exceeds pretty much all of them.

Microsoft has indeed offered monetary incentives to some developers to develop/port their apps for WP. I believe that's called business if I'm not mistaken.

Statistics are showing that WP is steadily growing. As a matter of fact it just passed Blackberry in Italy and Ireland. Nokia phones are selling out in many places they've gone on sale and WP phones are in the top rated phones (top 7) on all 4 major U.S. carriers as well as Ebay, Bestbuy, and Amazon.

If you're going to argue, facts and supporting evidence go a long way toward a having a credible point. So, in the future allow me to suggest that you "turn on" your tv or internet and "tune in once a week to keep up".
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RE: Five ways Windows 8 could fail
SamWilkinson 15th Feb
@Fletchguy Fletch,

No, he has no clue about technology. He's on ZDNet's payroll as a shill for Microsoft. All he cares about is saying the same junk:

1. Microsoft can do no wrong, Microsoft is God
2. When in doubt, refer to number 1.
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Clickbait article, figured it was written by SJVN.
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Training?
itpro_z Updated - 15th Feb
Why would enterprise customers have to spend a lot of money training employees? I have been hearing this for years, but never see it happen. Wasn't that supposed to be a big deal with Windows 7? Most of my users wouldn't know there was a change if I didn't tell them. Yeah, they notice that the taskbar is different, but they figure that out in seconds all by themselves. Most enterprise users spend their day in Word, Excel, Outlook, and whatever enterprise apps they have, not playing around with the OS. Changes to Office have an impact, but the OS has very little. I have even changed users from Windows to Linux and most don't really see any difference (until they try to run iTunes).
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........
http://wednice.ru/ 19th Feb

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