IDC: Windows Phone to overtake iPhone sales by 2015 ... What do you think?

IDC: Windows Phone to overtake iPhone sales by 2015 ... What do you think?

Summary: According to research group IDC, worldwide sales of Windows Phone handsets will exceed that of iOS devices by 2015.

SHARE:

According to research group IDC, worldwide sales of Windows Phone handsets will exceed that of iOS devices by 2015.

According to IDC, the smartphone market is expected to grow 49.2% in 2011 as more consumers and enterprise users exchange feature phones for smartphones, with this helping to smartphone vendors to ship more than 450 million smartphones in 2011 compared to the 303.4 million units shipped in 2010. IDC also predicts that the smartphone market will grow more than four times faster than the overall mobile phone market.

"Overall market growth in 2010 was exceptional," said Kevin Restivo, senior research analyst with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. "Last year's high market growth was due in part to pent-up demand from a challenging 2009, when many buyers held off on mobile phone purchases. The expected market growth for 2011, while still notable, will taper off somewhat from what we saw in 2010."

 IDC also predicts (guesses) that Windows Phone will jump to second place, beating iOS:

Nokia's recent announcement to shift from Symbian to Windows Phone will have significant implications for the smartphone market going forward. "Up until the launch of Windows Phone 7 last year, Microsoft has steadily lost market share while other operating systems have brought forth new and appealing experiences," added Llamas. "The new alliance brings together Nokia's hardware capabilities and Windows Phone's differentiated platform. We expect the first devices to launch in 2012. By 2015, IDC expects Windows Phone to be number 2 operating system worldwide behind Android."

Here's a handy chart showing how things might change:

 [poll id="614"]

Topics: Hardware, Enterprise Software, Telcos, Software, Smartphones, Operating Systems, Mobility, Microsoft, iPhone, Windows

Kick off your day with ZDNet's daily email newsletter. It's the freshest tech news and opinion, served hot. Get it.

Talkback

71 comments
Log in or register to join the discussion
  • never going to happen

    I think anyone who thinks this is an accurate and plausible possibility has been smoking too much weed. Never going to happen.
    quagmire1973
    • RE: IDC: Windows Phone to overtake iPhone sales by 2015 ... What do you think?

      @quagmire1973

      I disagree. I think it is possible, though not likely. You never can tell what is going to happen 4 years from now, especially in the IT world. For all we know Apple could implode on itself or forced to break-up. Linux may capture 80% market share by then too. All are unlikely but possible.
      Cyrorm
      • If Nokia will install WP on all of their phones by 2015, then yes

        @Cyrorm: by that time even $25 phone could be run by some very downsized version of WindowsPhone OS.

        It is similar to HP's goal to have hundreds million WebOS installations (they will achieve that by installing that OS on every PC "alongside with Windows" no matter if anyone needs it or not).

        However, *real* smartphone OS share of Apple will not hardly lower.

        <b>Even now, by the way, when Google counts sales of Anroid devices</b> it should be remembered that these are by far half dysfuncitonal -- no flash memory, no CPU power, tiny display, no AppMarket cheapo Chinese dumbphones (though officially they are counted as "smartphones").

        Yes, even with that "quality" of platform, overall iOS share (not just smartphones) is still about 20% bigger than that of Android.
        DDERSSS
      • RE: IDC: Windows Phone to overtake iPhone sales by 2015 ... What do you think?

        @AHK: What do I think? I think you are an applebot. That's what I think. BTW, how are you spending your paycheck from Apple?
        nomorebs
      • RE: IDC: Windows Phone to overtake iPhone sales by 2015 ... What do you think?

        @nomorebs
        Just because a particular blog author does not meet you NBM attitude that means they are a paid shill for Apple? You seriously have some issues you need to visit a doctor for.
        Rick_K
      • RE: IDC: Windows Phone to overtake iPhone sales by 2015 ... What do you think?

        look who's here. Mr. SteveJobsA$$licker (aka Rick_K). I'm not the only one who thinks the same about your buddy AHK. This fool now called "the apple nurse" (ex pc doctor) is another worshiper of your daddy's money.
        nomorebs
      • RE: IDC: Windows Phone to overtake iPhone sales by 2015 ... What do you think?

        @nomorebs
        I can see as usual; you have no intelligent response, so you choose to hurl insults. Why is it that Zealots like you call anyone that doesn?t believe in your way of thinking is a <b> SteveJobsA$$licker</b>?

        <i>I'm not the only one who thinks the same about your buddy AHK.</i>

        Sure all the Windows Zealots think believe that he is. I personally do not know Adrain, I have never met the man, have you? Are you shooting for the title NBM member of the month in your particular chapter? You were in fact one of the NBMers that predicted that the iPhone would never sell, the iPad would be a colossal flop, and that within the first year WP7SOSPs would be outselling iPhones. Too bad that iPhones are outselling your precious idol?s phones at roughly 15 to one.
        Rick_K
      • RE: IDC: Windows Phone to overtake iPhone sales by 2015 ... What do you think?

        @Cyrorm
        Yes i also like your word Cyrorm you are right.
        <a href="http://www.PhillyInjuryLawyer.com">Philadelphia Injury Lawyer </a>
        jawadsatti11
    • 2015, that late?

      I was thinking 2013 or earlier 2014.
      LBiege
      • RE: IDC: Windows Phone to overtake iPhone sales by 2015 ... What do you think?

        Too bad that iPhones are outselling your precious idol?s phones at roughly 15 to one. <a href="http://www.affordabledegrees.com ">life experience degree</a> | <a href="http://www.affordabledegrees.com/ADA/bp.asp">bachelor degree program</a> | <a href="http://www.affordabledegrees.com/ADA/accreditation.asp">online accredited degree </a>
        jordanhawk
      • RE: IDC: Windows Phone to overtake iPhone sales by 2015 ... What do you think?

        Thanks for sharing this information. <a href="http://www.affordabledegrees.com/ADA/associate-program.asp">associates degree</a> | <a href="http://www.affordabledegrees.com/ADA/degreeprograms.asp">degree programs</a>
        jordanhawk
      • RE: IDC: Windows Phone to overtake iPhone sales by 2015 ... What do you think?

        @LBiege Nothing man I think LBiege is write
        <a href="http://www.howtogetridofbedbugsfast.org">how to get rid of bed bugs</a>
        jawadsatti11
    • RE: IDC: Windows Phone to overtake iPhone sales by 2015 ... What do you think?

      @quagmire1973 Looking at the ZDNet poll 45% Yes 50% No 6% don't know...that's 101% WTH. They're as bad as IDC.
      Socratesfoot
      • Because of

        @Socratesfoot ... Rounding error...
        Snooki_smoosh_smoosh
      • RE: IDC: Windows Phone to overtake iPhone sales by 2015 ... What do you think?

        Too bad that iPhones are outselling your precious idol?s phones at roughly 15 to one. <a href="http://www.affordabledegrees.com ">life experience degree</a> | <a href="http://www.affordabledegrees.com/ADA/bp.asp">bachelor degree program</a> | <a href="http://www.affordabledegrees.com/ADA/accreditation.asp">online accredited degree </a>
        jordanhawk
        • RE: IDC: Windows Phone to overtake iPhone sales by 2015 ... What do you think?

          Thanks for sharing this information, keep up the good work. <a href="http://www.affordabledegrees.com/ADA/associate-program.asp">associates degree</a> | <a href="http://www.affordabledegrees.com/ADA/degreeprograms.asp">degree programs</a>
          jordanhawk
      • RE: IDC: Windows Phone to overtake iPhone sales by 2015 ... What do you think?

        Linux may capture 80% market share by then too. All are unlikely but possible. <a href="http://www.affordabledegrees.com/ADA/associate-program.asp">associates degree</a> | <a href="http://www.affordabledegrees.com/ADA/degreeprograms.asp">degree programs</a>
        jordanhawk
    • RE: IDC: Windows Phone to overtake iPhone sales by 2015 ... What do you think?

      @quagmire1973

      Well who do I believe? The whining FUD of the trolls here or Adrian's guesses (not predictions) or a research company? It's also interesting that >40% of the poll responders also thought it was possible.

      Keep pushing those static crowded little desktop icons, I',m expecting Apple's great next "new" innovation will be tiles ;-)
      tonymcs@...
      • RE: IDC: Windows Phone to overtake iPhone sales by 2015 ... What do you think?

        @tonymcs@?
        <i>Keep pushing those static crowded little desktop icons,</i>
        Just say it, you?re an NBM member. Once you come out of the closet, you?ll feel better. Maybe even someday they will have NBM Pride parades. ;)
        Rick_K
      • RE: IDC: Windows Phone to overtake iPhone sales by 2015 ... What do you think?

        @tonymcs@... If it's a research company with obvious ties to Microsoft and no grounds for their prediction...I'll stick with trolls and bloggers who have no vested interest. I predict the poll above will be near 60% within the week and that WP7 will flat line about 43%. Because that will be all the win-fan spammers can do against the vast majority of iPhone/Android users.
        Socratesfoot