iPhone - Out June 29th

iPhone - Out June 29th

Summary: Apple will release the long-awaited iPhone on June 29th.

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Apple will release the long-awaited iPhone on June 29th.

Apple iPhone - Out June 29thThe deal will be simple, you hand over $600, sign a 2 year contract and the mobile phone/widescreen iPod/Internet comms device is yours.

I still find it hard to see how Apple is going to shift 10 million iPhones in 2008I have mixed feelings about the iPhone. Sure, there are things I like about it (such as the 3.5 inch multi-touch display and WiFi capability), things that I don't like (that 2 year AT&T contract and that touchscreen - a hard, unyielding surface doesn't sound like it's going to make a good keyboard to me) and things I'm still waiting to find out about (such as whether the battery will be user-replaceable).

It's usually bad luck to bet against Steve Jobs, but I still find it hard to see how Apple is going to shift 10 million iPhones in 2008. Sure, 10 million is a neat round number and I bet investors thought it sounded nice, but I really don't see how this phone can hope to capture 1% of the cellphone market in a year, especially given the price and the fact that users will have to switch to AT&T. I'd be surprised if the iPhone could attract 1% of sales within AT&T – since the network has over 53 million subscribers that 1% would translate out into half a million units - not a shabby total but way off the predicted 10 million.

I also think feel that Apple is going to have a hard time selling the iPhone to other networks both in the US and in other countries. While AT&T in the US (and Rogers in Canada) might be willing to take the gamble and roll with the iPhone, new features like visual voicemail will need thorough testing to ensure compatibility within networks - no provider will want network outages because of some new disruptive feature - something as small as an hour without voicemail could see people voting with their feet. AT&T might be willing to take that gamble because they see the iPhone as the latest cash cow, but other networks are likely to be more wary, especially if sales aren't all that hot.

There's certainly a market for a sophisticated cellphone like the iPhone, it's called the smartphone market, but Apple is applying a reality distortion field on both the industry and consumers in regards to the iPhone. While some of the iPhone's features are certainly new and interesting, it's still nothing more than a smartphone. Once the honeymoon is over, iPhone will be left competing with other players such as Symbian and BlackBerry.

Where the iPhone has an advantage over the competition is that it won't be seen as a phone, but as a device that contains a cellphone. So instead, it's a widescreen iPod that just happens to be a cellphone. This shift in thinking is the revolutionary bit of the iPhone, and within a few years you'll see this spread into all sorts of devices such as GPS receivers and digital cameras. The cellphone feature will eventually become yet another checkbox item, like a color touchscreen or expansion slot for additional memory. Pretty soon, you won't buy a cellphone, you'll just expect it to be part of other devices and you'll move your SIM card around accordingly.

Check out the three iPhone ads over on Apple's website (ad 1, ad 2 and ad 3).

Thoughts?

Topics: iPhone, Mobility, Networking

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102 comments
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  • Good observations

    I work in the industry and I agree that a new device can introduce problems of its own. Extensive testing and education of the support staff will be necessary.

    This device will be nothing without the network to back it up. For me, lack of 3G support makes the device worthless to me.

    It will be interesting to see how well this sells and how many copy cat devices emerge. Sun has already shown one running JavaFX:
    http://blogs.sun.com/jonathan/ and: http://www.sun.com/software/javafx/mobile/
    otaddy
  • $600 ??? 2 Year Contract !!!

    Naw, I don't think so.
    No_Ax_to_Grind
    • Message has been deleted.

      NonZealot
      • Sorry that Billy and Stevie have lost favor.

        Maybe it's time you give up too.
        nomorems
      • Actualy it's ATT

        ATT is setting the minimum contract requirements and customers will
        be paying ATT the $30 per month. Give it a while and that requirement
        will be dropped, or the price reduced by ATT.
        Ken_z
        • Why use AT&T?

          If you don't want to pay for the unlimited data plan, buy your iPhone and activate it on Verizon's network. What? You can't? Apple [b]forces[/b] you to use Cingular? Then Apple is the one forcing you to accept whatever ATT hoists on you. If Apple wasn't all about restricting consumer choice, ATT wouldn't be able to get away with this.
          NonZealot
          • Buy another phone...

            How is consumer choice restricted?? There are hundreds of phone models out there. Don't like the cost or other attributes of the iPhone?? Buy something else!!
            cseanor
          • Verizon...

            ...has Verizon only phones, why don't we see you complaining about them in the same manner? Plus, its not so much Apple forcing you into Cingular, as the iPhone requires the network to be upgraded and have features added that no other phone uses (such as visual voice mail)
            Stuka
          • Message has been deleted.

            Kid Icarus-21097050858087920245213802267493
          • Wow, my message was deleted?!?!

            Uh, why?
            Kid Icarus-21097050858087920245213802267493
          • What do you care?

            You're not getting one, right?

            No one's forcing you to do anything, go twiddle your thumbs elsewhere,...oh wait, you have no where else to go.. Apple bashing is your bread and butter....
            Kid Icarus-21097050858087920245213802267493
      • There are plenty of mobile phone services and providers

        There are plenty of alternatives to Apple OSX and Mactintosh computers/software so
        where is the "Force" you keep refering too when it come to Apple? I tend to doubt
        you will be purchasing an iPhone so again how is it you avoided Apple's FORCE!?!
        Are you a Jedi? NonZ I am your farther......:P Seriously there is not force and plenty
        of choice out there Apple just uses her ability too choose to do business in a fashion
        she think will benefit her and the customers get to vote yea or nay with their wallets
        and their choices. No force that I can sense......

        Pagan jim
        Laff
    • Oh Please...

      Oh please, Ax, this is something from Apple which means you would find fault with
      the price (and everything else) if it only cost $1. Spare us.
      dolph0291
    • Actually $499

      Article is incorrect and only quotes the price for the more expensive version.
      tic swayback
      • Which is Sad.....

        Cause the majority will be buying the iPhone (4 gig) at $499
        dave95.
    • Yeah, sure killed..

      the Motorola RAZR.

      By the way, most carriers require a two year contract. Certainly Verizon does. And
      guess what? If I change ONE feature of my plan, that's ANOTHER two years.
      msalzberg
      • You've forgotten one thing...

        Pay as you go.
        rtk
  • I hope that crow is gonna taste good!

    Trolls
    Reverend MacFellow
    • Who are you speaking too?

      You really think 10 million poeple are going to fork over $600 and sign a two year contract for a cell phone/MP3 player? Don't think so...
      No_Ax_to_Grind
    • Why not just post another

      fake steve ballmer link under your "ballmer@" screen name...
      GuidingLight