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Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

Microsoft: In a year, Windows Phone has gone from very small to ... very small

By | July 11, 2011, 1:56pm PDT

Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer used the keynote speech at the 2011 Worldwide Partner Conference to admit that Windows Phone 7 is still “very small.”

While he hailed Windows and Office a success, he was restrained in describing how Windows Phone 7 had performed:

“In a year, we’ve gone from very small to … very small.”

Ballmer was more upbeat about the future:

“You will see a lot of progress in the market going forward.”

Microsoft has been very cagey about how well Windows Phone has done (we’ve had all sort of numbers from Microsoft, but no actual sales figures). Then there was the whole update debacle that left some handsets bricked. Even offering a Windows Phone 7 handset for $0.01 hasn’t seemed to have helped boost user share.

The biggest ray of hope for Windows Phone is Microsoft’s deal with Nokia to become a major OEM for the brand. In exchange for the company’s loyalty, Microsoft is allowing Nokia to customize the Windows Phone OS. It seems that Nokia’s first Windows Phone handset will be similar to its N9 flagship handset.

Where do you think Windows Phone will be in a year?

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Adrian Kingsley-Hughes is an internationally published technology author who has devoted over a decade to helping users get the most from technology.

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Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

All opinions expressed on Hardware 2.0 are those of Adrian Kingsley-Hughes. Every effort is made to ensure that the information posted is accurate. If you have any comments, queries or corrections, please contact Adrian via the email link here. Any possible conflicts of interest will be posted below. [Updated: February 23, 2010] - Adrian Kingsley-Hughes has no business relationships, affiliations, investments, or other actual/potential conflicts of interest relating to the content posted so far on this blog.

Biography

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes is an internationally published technology author who has devoted over a decade to helping users get the most from technology -- whether that be by learning to program, building a PC from a pile of parts, or helping them get the most from their new MP3 player or digital camera.

Adrian has authored/co-authored technical books on a variety of topics, ranging from programming to building and maintaining PCs. His most recent books include "Build the Ultimate Custom PC", "Beginning Programming" and "The PC Doctor's Fix It Yourself Guide". He has also written training manuals that have been used by a number of Fortune 500 companies.

Adrian also runs a popular blog under the name The PC Doctor, where he covers a range of computer-related topics -- from security to repairing and upgrading.

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RE: Microsoft: In a year, Windows Phone has gone from very small to ... very small
kmr214@... 24th Jul
@paul2011 It's like the Sony Betamax of mobile OS.

It is interesting to watch, though. MSFT has at least as big of a loyal fan base as Apple had when Apple introduced the iPhone.

I mean, there are a lot of fairly loyal MSFT people out there too. So why don't they run out at midnight and buy WP7 like Apple fanboiz do for anything Apple sells? Maybe b/c they are more in the corporate world--and thus are stuck using their RIMs or even WM6 devices until the corp IT moves on?

Frankly, I'm kind of one of those--but it's not Corp IT that keeps me back. It's the fact that a corp discount @ATT keeps me from upgrading my WM phone until Sept of this year (unless I want to pay full for the handset--I don't!).

MSFT and WP7 seem to be caught in a chicken-egg problem as I've heard from a lot of people who've seen the OS demo'd and think it's great. But they won't pull the trigger until they feel confident WP7 will survive. If they'd all just pull the trigger now, it would survive and thrive.

MSFT have a derived demand / network dependency problem to overcome.
Well they jumped into the market knowing they'd have to start from scratch. They did the same thing with the xbox and it evolved into a pretty cool thing. The next update looks pretty enticing, tossing a lot of functionality to the OS that other platforms require an app for. I'm positive in a year WP7 will be much better. But there is that stigma Microsoft has always had. People just don't like them for some reason. It'll be tough to get out of that funk.
@Darkninja962@...
I am thinking: how is that even possible?

Windows Phone OS hasn't been out for a year yet.
WP7 was announced by Ballmer as a real big thing - and 500 million USD were spent to promote the launch. Already forgot that? And now WP7 is below 1% market share. The sad thing is that there are so many Microsoft lemmings who can't swallow the fact that Microsoft ****** up big time. The market doesn't need a Microsoft OS driven phone and the cooperation with Nokia has the potential to kill Nokia.
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@hengels WP7 should have been a real big thing - look at the reviews it got. Considering the generally pro-Apple, anti-Microsoft stance, they were astonishingly positive. And $500M on a national advertising campaign is peanuts for Microsoft... I don't think you really have a grasp on how big (and rich) they are.

That being said, yes, they did screw up with WP7 and the way they did it is almost pure classic Microsoft. They turned over hardware control to third party companies who for the most part treated the WP7 as an 'also ran' product compared to Android... which then was passed to carriers and retailers as an 'also ran' handset too. Then for all the launch promotion money - I've seen almost NO ads. Seriously - some channels after 10pm turn into iPhone/iPad sponsored shows with every second commercial being an Apple product.

As for the market not needing a Microsoft OS driven phone - we'll the market doesn't 'need' anything - that's not how markets work. At best, a more correct statement would be 'the market isn't interested in WP7 at the moment'... but as other have noted, when the XBox came out, it wasn't exactly hot stuff - now it's at the top of the heap. This is Microsoft's big forte - endurance. When they decide to stick it out, they sit back and constantly improve things until suddenly their product clicks (usually when their competition makes a big mistake).

Before you bring up Windows Mobile, that was never targetted to the consumer market, so it's not a valid comparison.

Nokia was already dying quickly. They needed a new OS. Nowthey have one. If Nokia becomes THE Windows Phone company and Microsoft works directly with them to tune and tailor the OS while Nokia tunes and tailors the hardware, it'll be a hit pretty much everywhere outside of the US.. and since there's a LOT of people not in the US... that bodes well for Nokia and WP7.
Microsoft knows how important the mobile market is. Ballmer said that they're all in on Windows Phone. Being so far behind will cause Microsoft to inovate their way back into the game. This is good for all mobile consumers no matter what OS you're using.

Windows Phone Mango has been a dream to use and I look forward to developing many applications on this platform.
Windows phone will get a huge boost when nokia launches their windows phones. however, I think nokia will take a huge hit when that happens, and I think eventually nokia will lose even more of it's market share. Right now Nokia has about 32% of the market worldwide. I think in 3 years they'll be down to about 15%. Nokia is trying to address it's lose of market share by replacing the OS it uses, and it's not the OS that is causing Nokia to lose share. So, yes, I think Windows Phone will get a good boost, but it won't be enough to save Nokia.
@mgrubb@... Their smartphone market share was just under 25% in the 1Q of 2011 and likely will have fallen further in 2Q. It isn't going to take 3 years to drop to 15%.

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/11_24/b4232056703101_page_2.htm
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Yes and No on Nokia's share
LiquidLearner 11th Jul
@mgrubb@...

This is as much of a gamble for Nokia as it is for MS, perhaps more so. They are going for the US market. I get the feeling Nokia is hoping to regain EU share when the new devices launch and finally gain some popularity in the US using Microsoft's OS and advertising dollars. You know they will spend a small fortune getting it out there. Will it work? No idea. I like WP7 and would buy one today if I could. I hope it improves, Mango sounds pretty awesome. Hopefully around this time next year I'll be getting a shiny new WP, perhaps even from Nokia.
@LiquidLearner
Nokia may not even survive till the end of this year. Once the Microsoft takeover was announced, their market share and stock price tanked.
They lost some of their WM loyalists by changing the platform the way they did.
If nokia only has a couple handsets out this year 2012 will still be small for WP. The growth will delay until 2013. But MS will have the os in very good shape this fall from a competitive perspective and will have completely leap frogged ios and android by the end of 2012. That will also give them all of 2012 to fix the retail sales rep bias problem. So WP should have very good growth in 2013-2015.
@Johnny Vegas That's insane. At the speed that technology and innovation brings? 2015? As pointed out earlier, Nokia can't survive until your most optimistic date - 2013. The only thing that makes sense to me is that MS will let Nokia bury itself so they can buy Nokia and own control of the HW and SW. But WM, IMHO, will never be a serious threat to take over Apple or Android anytime soon. Let's also not forget HP's web OS and the soon to be released completely re-done RIM products. So, in the end, you have the giant behemoth MS being too little to late in chasing an ever smaller size of the mobile pie.
@dequire There's always naysayers and pessimists like you out there. Fortunately there are optimists and people with vision to get things done. It was a gutsy move by Nokia to essentially throw away their investment in Symbian, but they had little choice in order to remain relevant. The Microsoft-Nokia partnership is a win-win for both companies, and it doesn't matter what you think, nobody asked you.
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It is surprising
paul2011 11th Jul
Windows Phone is really nice. It is a bit surprising to see it struggle so much. Maybe MS should pay somebody to show their phones on some soap opera or a movie?
Windows phone is quality product without customers. Very strange indeed.
@paul2011, Microsoft blasted already more than 500 million bucks away to promote WP7. The result is not strange. The market simply doesn't want to see Microsoft there - at least for the moment. That a good product alone doesn't help you could see with Palm.
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@hengels No disrespect, but you're kind of obsessed with $500M without actually asking 'what did they do with that money?' $500M is nothing if it's not spent well and it's clear that MSFT didn't do a good job advertising (and neither did HTC or Samsung or anyone else who makes WP7 phones).

So, the market doesn't 'want' or 'not want' a Microsoft product - they just don't even know it's there. Stop telling the market what it wants.
@hengels
Considering that WP7SOS is not a new product (just version two of the Kin), Their market penetration pretty much says what the consumers think. No thanks! I wonder if the talking fool at Microsoft will ever get it? Selling license stickers to OEMs can only get you so far.
@hengels Wow, $500 million to "promote" WP7! You do realize that amount is not only a pittance of the cash on hand Microsoft has and I see so many iPhone and iPad ads on television that frankly I'm sick of them. It seems that "If you don't have an iPhone..." runs multiple times per hour on network and cable stations. Oh, and that commercial that asks what would your child say about the iPad- "magical"? Yeah, I trust my child to make decisions on the tech I buy because I'm just that stupid that I can't make logical decisions without asking my "little ones" first... Any idea how many billions Apple spends on their non-stop advertising for their products? And don't you find it strange that apparently nearly everyone who has actually used a WP7 phone doesn't go back to Android or iPhone? And HP's webos will likely do a bit better than Palm did when they owned that platform...
@hengels Problem is MSFT couldn't market a million dollars to a homeless person. Bald held is the equivalent of a used car salesman who just yells crap that no one wants to listen to or values. Xbox was successful because they went outside of MSFT to advertise market stepped out of the MSFT norm. The true failure is that MSFT has ignored the consumer to land businesses on bald head's orders for so long there is a bad taste in people's mouth. Ever ate something nasty it takes a while to for that bad taste to go away and give it another taste. It's a great phone, I own one and the user reports indicate 93% of people that give the phone a chance like it. Problem is they can't get anyone to try it. Yell louder bald head the people will listen eventually...
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Interesting concept
rahbm 14th Jul
@hengels
"That a good product alone doesn't help you could see with Palm."

Equally, that a bad product alone doesn't hurt, you can see with Windows. Cue the double standards and Windows fanatics and zealots frothing at the mouth!
@paul2011 It's like the Sony Betamax of mobile OS.

It is interesting to watch, though. MSFT has at least as big of a loyal fan base as Apple had when Apple introduced the iPhone.

I mean, there are a lot of fairly loyal MSFT people out there too. So why don't they run out at midnight and buy WP7 like Apple fanboiz do for anything Apple sells? Maybe b/c they are more in the corporate world--and thus are stuck using their RIMs or even WM6 devices until the corp IT moves on?

Frankly, I'm kind of one of those--but it's not Corp IT that keeps me back. It's the fact that a corp discount @ATT keeps me from upgrading my WM phone until Sept of this year (unless I want to pay full for the handset--I don't!).

MSFT and WP7 seem to be caught in a chicken-egg problem as I've heard from a lot of people who've seen the OS demo'd and think it's great. But they won't pull the trigger until they feel confident WP7 will survive. If they'd all just pull the trigger now, it would survive and thrive.

MSFT have a derived demand / network dependency problem to overcome.
Even so, it's a dinosaur none the less. It's extinct. Office is bloatware, there is no compelling reason to ever upgrade from 2003 or 2007.

The only OS that deserves any kind of use is XP. Vista is garbage and Windows 7 is Vista with lipstick and lyposuction. When my 3-year-old Windows XP machine (I downgraded it from Vista) finally dies, another MAC is coming into the house to join my other two MACs and my iPads.

Microsoft bought their way into XBOX, but now mobile is going to make consoles obsolete (just like Internet Explorer). The deep-pocket, buy your way into an industry days are over for Microsoft, just look at Bing.

Windows 8 is already a joke. The days of taking 25-million lines of crappy code and putting an "aero" interface on it is just about as wise and healthy as deep-frying Twinkies at a carnival. Windows on tablet will be just like....well....Windows on tablets. How'd that work out for them?

Windows Phone 7, where do I begin. There's a reason why gangsters give each other nicknames and "Windows Phone 7" is begging for one! Using Zune's interface on a smartphone wasn't exactly the greatest idea; especially after what happened to Zune. Microsoft is so pathetic they can only make money in mobile by extorting Android users like they are gangsters....so why not find a nickname for Win-Pho-Seven please.

Microsoft is a big stinking joke. Apple is crushing them. The haven't had an original idea since....well, never, actually. They stole every idea they ever profited from. As Malcolm X said: "The Chickens are Coming Home to Roost".
@orandy
ZDNet?
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It's called free speech
Chipesh 12th Jul
@toddybottom

Don't you like it because it smacks of the truth ?

Nothing wrong with orandy's post and the person who flagged it needs to get a life.
  • Flagged
@toddybottom
You have a problem with someone?s opinion? Or are you just offended that the OP is not praising Microsoft? No matter how it was put, it is actually true. Microsoft cannot compete on merit, they never could.
@orandy

It amuses me that you'd write so much about a company just because you think they have bad products.

Nice rant though.
Even so, it's a dinosaur none the less. It's extinct. Office is bloatware, there is no compelling reason to ever upgrade from 2003 or 2007.

The only OS that deserves any kind of use is XP. Vista is garbage and Windows 7 is Vista with lipstick and lyposuction. When my 3-year-old Windows XP machine (I downgraded it from Vista) finally dies, another MAC is coming into the house to join my other two MACs and my iPads.

Microsoft bought there way into XBOX, but now mobile is going to make consoles obsolete (just like Internet Explorer). The deep-pocket, buy your way into an industry days are over for Microsoft, just look at Bing.

Windows 8 is already a joke. The days of taking 25-million lines of crappy code and putting an "aero" interface on it is just about as wise and healthy as deep-frying Twinkies at a carnival. Windows on tablet will be just like....well....Windows on tablets. How'd that work out for them?

Windows Phone 7, where do I begin. There's a reason why gangsters give each other nicknames and "Windows Phone 7" is begging for one! Using Zune's interface on a smartphone wasn't exactly the greatest idea; especially after what happened to Zune. Microsoft is so pathetic they can only make money in mobile by extorting Android users like they are gangsters....so why not find a nickname for Win-Pho-Seven please.

Microsoft is a big stinking joke. Apple is crushing them. The haven't had an original idea since....well, never, actually. They stole every idea they ever profited from. As Malcolm X said: "The Chickens are Coming Home to Roost".
@orandy ... Windows Phone 7, where do I begin. ...
You could take a look at actual phone happy
Your comment is basically one big scream GET OFF MY APPLE LAWN!
@paul2011
A phone is what the user makes of it, not what you say it should be. You chose your phone on what you review or be leave. Folks have a choice in what they use. (There is a period there).
@paul2011
I have tried a few of them and my thoughts are this: an OS that is designed for a 13 year old girl. When you design the OS for a particular segment, do not expect everyone else to conform to that design.
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As a Cross-Platform User...
Snooki_smoosh_smoosh 11th Jul
@orandy I see no reason to stay with Windows XP. WinXP is a slug. Windows 7 is a lot faster and more secure than XP, and has a much better interface. I absolutely loath when I have to work on an XP machine, I didn't care much for Vista, but it certainly was better after SP1 & SP2.

My Primary machine at home is a MAC, and my Next laptop will be a MBP. My Phone is an Verizon iPhone 4.

I have yet to see anything to compel me to give up my iPhone at contract renewal for WP7, but that isn't to say it is a bad OS, because honestly I don't know, but I really love how my iPhone integrates with the OSX platform.

Windows 8 does look interesting, and I will reserve judgement till the RC is released.
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Message has been deleted.
toddybottom Updated - 13th Jul
  • Flagged
@toddybottom
Are you upset that the OP is not a Microsoft Zealot? Sounds like a person that made an informed decision, rather than a fool that drools over the latest from Redmond.
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Funny you say 2003 and 2007
LiquidLearner 11th Jul
@orandy
@orandy

Cool story bro.
@orandy

Sounds to me that that Windows XP machine is most likely sitting in a corner gathering dust already.
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Riiight.. so.. they're such a failure that...
TheWerewolf Updated - 12th Jul
@orandy Windows 7 has sold over 400 million licences since its rollout last year making it the fastest selling operating system in the history of computing... and Office 2010 has sold 100 million licenses since it was released.

Windows market share has indeed declined - from 92% to 89% over five years. Which means it's STILL the OS on 89 computers in 100... with over one billion users.

Let me say that again.. ONE... BILLION... USERS. One human in seven is using a Windows computer.

To put that in perspective, 6 people in 100 are using MacOS world wide and less than 1 person in 100 are using Linux.

Yeah. I should be such a failure.

PS: The dinosaurs didn't die out because of some intrinsic fault - they died because an asteroid the size of Manhatten Island hit the earth. Apple and Android aren't asteroids... and the Microsoft 'dinosaur' isn't that endangered, no matter how much you want it to be.
@TheWerewolf
Note: Microsoft is not saying that there are over 400 million active copies of Windows 7, only that they have sold 400 million license stickers. Probably (though it is impossible to verify) half of those re not activated. Think of all the companies that have a site license. Many of them are still using Windows xp, even though Microsoft counts them as using Windows 7. It is all about perception as opposed to reality.
@Rick_K
Anyway, even if your guess is right, Microsoft yet owns the desktop market share. But it doesnt matter in this article.
I believe this will change when Nokia start selling WP7 worldwide. In my country Nokia is almost the 'default' phone for everyone, so yes, Microsoft can be a big player in this game.
Just waiting they launch it (in november) to get one.
I'm happy I with my HTC Surround. Very sleek OS, and I love the Facebook integration.
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Where WP7 should be
keebaud@... 12th Jul
In the office. Microsoft should give up on the whole consumer market push for these things and focus on making it a rival for the BlackBerry.
To do this Microsoft may have to go WP8. WP7 may simply become another Vista.
The biggest problem for WP7 is that it's too consumer based for business and not trendy enough for consumers. It seems like Microsoft are pushing hard to try and make it trendy (a gamble that may or may not pay off) and completely ignoring the potential business market.
@keebaud@?
Microsoft simply rehashed the Kin and changed the name. Look at the UX on both and you?ll see it.
@Rick_K Actually that not true... Kin was a watered down version of WP7... This is another flop of the MSFT marketing debacle to get to market fast. Instead they delivered crap half cooked and confused or turned away a few customers. The right delivery would have been WP7 for Mom and Dad and a kin for the kids.
Once the Mango update is out, its going to be one the best mobile OS out there. MS needs to change the customer perception that WP7 is not WM.

WP7 has the best tools for app development,and the apps look elegent than the competiting platforms.

Bring cutting edge and variety hardware, and WP7 will sell like hotcakes.
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Microsoft and Nokia
florincrisan 12th Jul
I think the deal with Microsoft will kill Nokia, eventually. First, because Microsoft can not seem to grasp the mobile phone market. Second, because Ballmer has no sense of reality: he thinks as a business man, not as a consumer. I have seen all the windows Mobile versions; none lived up to my expectations.
@florincrisan
Then WP7SOS will not live up to your expectations either. For an OS to go in the bargain bin less than six months after initial launch, it is truly a sign that there is little interest in it. To this day I have not seen one person that has a WP7SOS phone. I see plenty of iPhones and Android phones, but it seems no one wants the stigma of owning a WP7SOS phone.
Why does ZDNet tolerate posters like Rick_K?
@toddybottom
Because unlike trolls (like yourself). The main idea here is to express individual opinions. You may wish to dictate other?s opinions. But in reality that will never happen. Maybe you need to visit windowslover.com, or some other website that caters to your particular fetish.
I love my Windows Phone. It already does so much without needing "an app for that". And forget about the fruit wanabee. It's becoming fragmented and in my experiences, it lags. The market needs another good choice and WP7 is it. It's buttery smooth and the updates are making it better & better. I think the problem here is that so many people don't know it exists.
@mpietrorazio@?
People know it exists, just like they knew the original version existed (the Kin). People in general are just not interested in Kin version 2.

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