ie8 fix
madison

Hardware 2.0

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes
Home / News & Blogs / Hardware 2.0

Microsoft offers up "Windows Phone 7 numbers that (don't) matter"

By | March 31, 2011, 6:47am PDT

Microsoft is at it again with Windows Phone 7, offering up numbers that it claims are the ‘numbers that matter’ but which in reality aren’t the numbers that matter.

Brandon Watson offers up the numbers on the Windows Phone Developer blog. Here’s a breakdown:

  • 1.5 million Visual Studio Express for Windows Phone and Expression Blend 4 for Windows Phone downloads
  • 36,000 AppHub community members
  • 11,500 apps
  • 7,500 paid apps
  • 1,200 developers added each week
  • 1,100 ad-funded apps
  • 12 app downloaded per customer on average
  • 1.8 days for apps to be certified
  • 62% of apps pass certification first time
  • 44% of apps include trial versions
  • 40% of registered developers have published an app

But there’s one number that Microsoft isn’t talking about - Windows Phone 7 activations. How many handsets are out there in the hands of users browsing the web and downloading apps? It’s an important question that Microsoft continues to dodge.

In an attempt top get to the bottom of this I approached NetMarketShare to see what sort of Windows Phone 7 usage it’s are seeing. Vince Vizzaccaro, EVP Marketing and Strategic Alliances at NetApplications.com had this to say:

We are tracking Windows Phone 7, but it hasn’t gained enough market share yet to show up in our reports.

This gives us a clue as to how small the Windows Phone 7 usage actually is. The OS report for February goes as far as listing Windows CE with a usage share of 0.02% and browsers down as far as Chrome 4 with a usage share of 0.06%. That means that Windows Phone 7 (or the Windows Phone 7 IE browser) usage share much be lower than this. This means that the overall usage share for Windows Phone 7 must be incredibly low.

Microsoft, give us the numbers that really matter!

Kick off your day with ZDNet's daily e-mail newsletter. It's the freshest tech news and opinion, served hot. Get it.

More from “Hardware 2.0”

Topics

Microsoft Windows Phone 7, Microsoft Windows Phone, Microsoft Corp., Microsoft Windows, Operating Systems, Software, Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes is an internationally published technology author who has devoted over a decade to helping users get the most from technology.

Disclosure

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

All opinions expressed on Hardware 2.0 are those of Adrian Kingsley-Hughes. Every effort is made to ensure that the information posted is accurate. If you have any comments, queries or corrections, please contact Adrian via the email link here. Any possible conflicts of interest will be posted below. [Updated: February 23, 2010] - Adrian Kingsley-Hughes has no business relationships, affiliations, investments, or other actual/potential conflicts of interest relating to the content posted so far on this blog.

Biography

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes is an internationally published technology author who has devoted over a decade to helping users get the most from technology -- whether that be by learning to program, building a PC from a pile of parts, or helping them get the most from their new MP3 player or digital camera.

Adrian has authored/co-authored technical books on a variety of topics, ranging from programming to building and maintaining PCs. His most recent books include "Build the Ultimate Custom PC", "Beginning Programming" and "The PC Doctor's Fix It Yourself Guide". He has also written training manuals that have been used by a number of Fortune 500 companies.

Adrian also runs a popular blog under the name The PC Doctor, where he covers a range of computer-related topics -- from security to repairing and upgrading.

136
Comments
Add Your Opinion

Join the conversation!

Just In

RE: Microsoft offers up
non-biased 7th Apr 2011
@neilpost They got them into a lot of TV shows early on.
View in thread
0 Votes
+ -
RE: Microsoft offers up
Return_of_the_jedi Updated - 31st Mar 2011
@Adrian

You are going to have all the M$ fanbois cry babies screaming FUD.
0 Votes
+ -
I am not sure there is much the MS propeller heads can do with this one.
DonnieBoy 31st Mar 2011
There is no wiggle room here.
0 Votes
+ -
RE: Microsoft offers up
dheady@... 31st Mar 2011
@Return_of_the_jedi Well, isn't it FUD? After all, I'm certain that Windows Phone 7 has been purchased by a goodly number of Zune users! Wait, ok, six, maybe seven?
0 Votes
+ -
RE: Microsoft offers up
SlithyTove 31st Mar 2011
@Return_of_the_jedi

You are going to have the all the M$ fanbois cry babies screaming FUD.

I would say that is coming up with the right answer to the wrong question. A better comparison would show % of overall mobile share.

See the iPhone only has 1% of total browser share. All mobile browser combined account for, what 2.5% of the entire graph? It's like trying to judge the success of a new Airbus airplane by comparing it's % usage share against all modes of transportation.

The best data so far for WP7 is still off of Facebook. Which shows iPhone (all models) at about 100x the usage share of WP7. Nothing to gloat about for a WP7 fan. But it still means that WP7 is playing in the same ballpark as the initial iPhone sales, and better than the initial android sales.
0 Votes
+ -
RE: Microsoft offers up
intenet 31st Mar 2011
@SlithyTove
Well, the graph tracks down to windows CE (!?!?).
I don`t know a single person who is still using or even OWNs a WinCE device!
WP7 numbers are obviously even lower than Windows CE numbers. For me, this figure is more than conclusive!
0 Votes
+ -
RE: Microsoft offers up
jreuter 31st Mar 2011
@internet
I though Windows Mobile 6.x was based on winCE. I've got one of those (Samsung Jack) in my pocket right now and use it all the time, but I don't usually use the web browser on it. Mostly, I use it for phone, text, and email.
0 Votes
+ -
RE: Microsoft offers up
SlithyTove 31st Mar 2011
@internet

All previous versions of Windows Mobile plus whatever odd bits are still running CE are getting rolled up under Windows CE in that chart. Not surprising at all.

Android and iOS would have been buried on that chart close to release as well. If NetApplications are tracking it, then what is the actual value? AKH seems to be replying to MS posting numbers that don't matter by posting numbers that don't say anything because relevant data is bumped off the chart by inclusion of main-line OSes.

Facebook and the IDC data (showing 5% market share) are the only pieces of good recent data that I know of.
0 Votes
+ -
RE: Microsoft offers up
Rick_K 4th Apr 2011
@SlithyTove
Facebook and the IDC data (showing 5% market share) are the only pieces of good recent data that I know of.

The IDC data combines all versions of Windows Mobile, not just WP7SOS phones. Remember before WP7SOS phones were released, Windows Mobile had 6.8% so a loss of over 1% does not speak well for WP7SOS phone adoption. If the number of activated units was something to write home about (so to speak), Microsoft would have press releases about it, just like the Kinect.
0 Votes
+ -
RE: Microsoft offers up
ParrotHead_FL 31st Mar 2011
@Return_of_the_jedi I'm not a Microsoft fanboy (that was clever how you replaced the "S" with a dollar sign--I've never seen that before), but I'm a WP7 fanboy. As in, I actually own and have extensively used a WP7 and, based on that experience, came to a conclusion about it.

Anyhow, OF COURSE these numbers matter. Without strong developer support, a mobile platform will fail. The point of these numbers is to show that there is, indeed, strong and growing developer support. Clearly those developers see something they like.
0 Votes
+ -
Actually, the number that matters is HOW MANY ARE THE ACTIVATING. Without
DonnieBoy 31st Mar 2011
activations, NOTHING ELSE MATTERS. Sure, MS can pay huge sums to developers in the short term to get them to port applications to WP7, but, unless people are actually using the phones, that will go nowhere in the long run. Again, the numbers to NOT indicate "strong developer support", they indicate that MS has deep pockets and paid developers a lot of money to develop for a platform that would otherwise not develop for.
0 Votes
+ -
RE: Microsoft offers up
ParrotHead_FL 1st Apr 2011
@DonnieBoy You're kidding, right? You think that that Microsoft is paying a significant portion of the nearly 5,000 developers to write apps? Sure, they've paid some to get started. But how many do you think? A few hundred, maybe? I can assure you that there aren't 5,000 developers on the dole.
0 Votes
+ -
RE: Microsoft offers up
Rick_K 4th Apr 2011
@ParrotHead_FL
Without strong developer support, a mobile platform will fail. The point of these numbers is to show that there is, indeed, strong and growing developer support. Clearly those developers see something they like.

Only one small problem with your assumption: If there are no willing customers, then the developers will abandon ship. This will take some time, as they will buy into the Reality Distortion Zone (RDZ) thinking. Once they realize how much more money they could make developing for the other platforms, they will need anti-depressants.
0 Votes
+ -
RE: Microsoft offers up
non-biased 7th Apr 2011
@ParrotHead_FL I thought it was very telling that they claim 12 app download average per customer yet don't list how many customers. If they can track how many apps on average are being downloaded to phones then they know how many phones are activated. I am sure developers are getting discouraged by not getting these numbers either and are getting antsy to leave if something doesn't happen before long.
0 Votes
+ -
Message has been deleted.
Rob.sharp@... Updated - 6th Apr 2011
0 Votes
+ -
RE: Microsoft offers up
tonymcs@... Updated - 31st Mar 2011
@Return_of_the_jedi

Of course it's FUD. Obviously Adrian needs more money, so we get a troll bait article.

I can confirm there are at least 6 users. I bought 4 phones and 2 people just downlaoded and purchased my WP7 educational game. I also don't know where the rubbish about paying developers comes from or at least can you tell me where I can join the line?

You will get the numbers sometime Adrian, but all they are going to do is make you depressed as MS grabs more and more marketshare until you wake up one day and Apple will be at 9% and the rest will be Windows - sound familiar?
0 Votes
+ -
RE: Microsoft offers up
Rick_K 4th Apr 2011
@tonymcs@?
You will get the numbers sometime Adrian, but all they are going to do is make you depressed as MS grabs more and more marketshare until you wake up one day and Apple will be at 9% and the rest will be Windows - sound familiar?

Or it could end up being you that is depressed. If this version of the Kin goes the same way as the last version? Sound familiar? Even using the numbers from ?Facebook? as a baseline there are only 460,000 WP7SOS phones in the hands of customers, compared to 100,000,000 iPhones.
0 Votes
+ -
RE: Microsoft offers up
non-biased 7th Apr 2011
@tonymcs@... Since you continually prove you don't know what your talking about with just about every post I don't think the competition has anything to worry about.
0 Votes
+ -
RE: Microsoft offers up
WilErz 2nd Apr 2011
@ Return_of_the_jedi

Unlike the Linux fan-boys, the Microsoft fan-boys don't tend to scream 'FUD' at anything that isn't in line with their biases. Microsoft are being quiet about the numbers, so bloggers are naturally speculating that they're low. It's a reasonable assumption, and may prod Microsoft into providing more details.

I don't know anything about Windows Phone's progress in the US market, but I do know that Telekom, the dominant operator in Germany, have said Windows Phone is selling ahead of expectations. Its market share is of course still tiny, but it now shows up in the StatCounter results for Germany:

http://gs.statcounter.com/#mobile_os-DE-monthly-201104-201104-bar

A hit rate of 1.2 per cent is hardly a roaring success, but it was 0 per cent in December. Even if Windows Phone continues to add only 0.4 per cent per month, it will still overtake Symbian's current hit share (7.53 per cent) next year, to move into third place behind iOS and Android.

An important point here is that there hasn't been any big advertising push for Windows Phone in Germany. I haven't seen any advertising for it at all, actually. If Nokia ship Windows Phones this year, and together with Microsoft and the operators (e.g. Telekom) start pushing them, I'd say a continuation of the current trend is extremely conservative. Once Nokia ship, Windows Phone could rapidly overtake Symbian in Germany and move into third place. From there, it could become a serious challenger to Android, though I expect iOS will continue to rule for some time.

According to bloggers, Windows Phone 7 hasn't sold as well as expected in the US. Assuming that's correct, I suspect it's partly down to the unusual market structure, where a lot of the operators require special models using non-standard technologies (e.g. CDMA), instead of standard GSM models. All of the initial Windows Phone models were GSM, and the main GSM operator in the US are AT&T, who are also the main (and until recently sole) iPhone distributor. This was hardly an ideal combination for Microsoft.

With CDMA models having now apparently shipped, Windows Phone may start to sell better in the US. Still, with the Nokia partnership, my bet would be that if Windows Phone succeeds, its will happen first in Europe, and perhaps in Germany. If I were running Microsoft, I'd be working with Nokia and Telekom for a major marketing push later this year. The German market may be small next to the US market, but it's the biggest market in Europe, and Europe as a whole is the biggest market in the world. With a solid European base, it will be a lot easier for Microsoft/Nokia to break into the US too.
0 Votes
+ -
It took Android six months to breach 1 per cent in Germany
WilErz 2nd Apr 2011
As an aside, it took Android about six months to breach the 1 per cent level of mobile web hits in Germany (according to StatCounter), so Windows Phone may be following a similar trajectory.

It took over a year for Android to breach 5 per cent, but in its second year it exploded to more than 20 per cent, and iOS tumbled from over 72 to less than 58 per cent. Only time will tell if Windows Phone will do the same, but a market split of 30 per cent or so each for iOS, Android and Windows certainly looks plausible.

The Nokia launch will be important, but even without it, Windows Phone has been following a similar trend to Android in its first year. The key is probably to have a range of handsets, which is something Windows Phone will have once Nokia start shipping in volume. It's likely that iOS will continue to decline relative to the others, since it had an early lead, but is a single device from a single vendor.
0 Votes
+ -
RE: Microsoft offers up
Rick_K 4th Apr 2011
@WilErz
First off: WP7SOS phones were released on many carriers in many countries . Compared to the iPhone that was released in One country on One carrier. The success of the iPhone was (is) ease of use., something that WP7SOS phones only claim to have.

Secondly:If anything the constantly updating icons would be more distracting to the younger people. I have seen some of these fools walk into street lights, and fences, because they spend more time texting (and possibly sexting) than paying attention to where they are going.

For the younger people, the artificial ADD generation, that needs to constantly be connected to Facebook, Myspace, and Twitter; WP7SOS phones do not give them a resin to take part in reality, but would cause even further distractions from reality.
0 Votes
+ -
RE: Microsoft offers up
WilErz 4th Apr 2011
@ Rick_K

You've apparently replied to the wrong comment. I didn't write anything about the iPhone (except to mention that AT&T are its primary US distributor) or updating icons.

My comment was that, in Germany, Windows Phone is gaining web hit share at least as quickly as Android did when it was launched. Add Nokia to the mix, and Windows Phone looks set to become a strong third (behind iPhone and Android) in the German market next year.
0 Votes
+ -
RE: Microsoft offers up
Rick_K 6th Apr 2011
@WilErz
You are seriously missing the point. There have been reports that the WP7SOS phones have been selling at a less than moderate clip, and that the License stickers shipped is not a good metric. If the numbers are as good as the Windows Zealot had predicted, Microsoft would call a press briefing announcing how they were killing the competition. Being the marketshare of WP7SOS phones is not even high enough to factor in as a rounding error, looks like the section round of Kin is not doing much better than the first.
0 Votes
+ -
RE: Microsoft offers up
non-biased 7th Apr 2011
@WilErz I don't know anything about Windows Phone's progress in the US market, but I do know that Telekom, the dominant operator in Germany, have said Windows Phone is selling ahead of expectations.

Not saying that WP7 isn't having success in Germany but claiming sales are ahead of expectations really doesn't tell us anything. If they expected to sell 100 a month and they are selling 101 it's ahead of expectations but still not real figures you want to broadcast. Not saying they are that low, just using extremes to make the point.
0 Votes
+ -
RE: Microsoft offers up
AndyPagin 31st Mar 2011
MS should arrange some product promotions to get the public interested, like a free WP7 in every packet of cornflakes. At least the activations might make it into double figures.
0 Votes
+ -
Yes, and that is the problem for Microsoft, the OS is junk, and the only to
DonnieBoy 31st Mar 2011
gain share is to buy your way in. Like giving Nokia a cool billion.
0 Votes
+ -
RE: Microsoft offers up
Return_of_the_jedi Updated - 31st Mar 2011
@DonnieBoy

That other number we haven't heard is, you ready? The ROI on WP7.
0 Votes
+ -
I'll take a few with my corn flakes
Economister Updated - 31st Mar 2011
@AndyPagin

As long as they have Wi-Fi wink


BTW, it is double DIGITS, not "figures"
0 Votes
+ -
RE: Microsoft offers up
dheady@... 31st Mar 2011
@Economister You're correct on the usage of 'digits'. After all you can probably count on one hand how many activations there have been.
0 Votes
+ -
RE: Microsoft offers up
non-biased 7th Apr 2011
@Economister But MS is using double figures. The first figure is the number of stickers they have shipped and the second figure is the one they won't tell anybody, actual activations wink
0 Votes
+ -
Sounds like Windows Phone 7 is maybe even worse than the Kin numbers.
DonnieBoy Updated - 31st Mar 2011
Look for Nokia to pull out of the agreement. Well, maybe they can not pull out, but, they at least have room to offer phones with other OSes. Nokia has to realize that their company is worth a lot more than a billion dollars. They can not trash their company for a payment of a billion dollars.
0 Votes
+ -
RE: Microsoft offers up
balsover 31st Mar 2011
@DonnieBoy There won't be a change until the CEO is replaced, he is Ballmer's pal and no one hands out that much money unless guarantees are made and not using any other OS was certainly part of the deal.
0 Votes
+ -
Actually, under the agreement, they will still release a MeeGo phone. Maybe
DonnieBoy 31st Mar 2011
they will get less money if they do not almost exclusively use WP7, but, I am sure that they will be able to cancel it. With these numbers, and the Bing market share in Europe showing how much Europeans hate MS, it seems that Nokia might not have much choice but to use other OSes on their phones.
0 Votes
+ -
RE: Microsoft offers up
SlithyTove Updated - 31st Mar 2011
@DonnieBoy

With these numbers, and the Bing market share in Europe showing how much Europeans hate MS

With the European Windows user numbers showing how much Europeans LOVE MS, I predict HUGE success for all MS products. Clippy is loved by all!

And with the abysmal share currently held by the Pippin in Europe I predict that Europeans HATE APPLE FROM THE BOTTOM OF THEIR SOUL THE APPLOCOLYPSE BEGINS NOW!

0 Votes
+ -
The Emperor's clothes
john_gillespie@... 31st Mar 2011
Sad about the mental state of MicroSoft. You see this type of activity in other once preeminent empires, commercial or political, as they spiral down. They spend enormous amounts of money and energy trying to show that all is well, while they should be devoting their resources improving the situation and preserving what is left.
0 Votes
+ -
Yes, Microsoft's statements on WP7 are surprisingly similar to Gaddafi.
DonnieBoy 31st Mar 2011
Trying to pretend that nothing is happening and that WP7 is doing very well.
0 Votes
+ -
RE: Microsoft offers up
Rick_K 4th Apr 2011
@john_gillespie@?
Maybe they should hire the Iraqi Information Minister, he seemed pretty good at spinning the truth.
0 Votes
+ -
RE: Microsoft offers up
Rick_K 4th Apr 2011
@DonnieBoy
Look for Nokia to pull out of the agreement.

The only thing that could possibly save Nokia at this point is: for someone to halt the sale of Nokia to Microsoft. I highly expect Nokia to be come a subsidiary of Microsoft within two years.
0 Votes
+ -
Happy Talk News
Robert Hahn 31st Mar 2011
As Rockhead Goliathson has already said, people with Windows Phones are so happy talking on them that they don't have time to use the web browser. That's why it doesn't show up in the net tracking figures.
0 Votes
+ -
RE: Microsoft offers up
dheady@... 31st Mar 2011
@Robert Hahn And isn't the whole idea behind WP7 that you can 'get back to your life' and not use the phone so much? Seems that's the message in the MS ads. What I read into that is 'our phone OS sucks so badly you can't use it and want to do something else quickly'. What a poor advertising approach. Your target market is someone who doesn't use a smartphone? MS is rapidly shooting itself in more than just its foot.
0 Votes
+ -
RE: Microsoft offers up
john_gillespie@... 31st Mar 2011
Their feet are gone. Their spending their energy looking for a gun with a shorter barrel so they can shoot off their kneecaps.
0 Votes
+ -
RE: Microsoft offers up
Loverock Davidson 31st Mar 2011
Bring back the thumbs down button so I rate this article as it should be rated.

How many handsets are out there in the hands of users browsing the web and downloading apps? It?s an important question that Microsoft continues to dodge.
Why do YOU want the numbers? Its not like you own a WP7 device, will ever own one, or have any interest in anything Microsoft produces so your whole article is bunk. Worst of all you never give a clear reason why Microsoft should release the numbers. You just want them for your next click bait article saying "Well these numbers for WP7 that's only been out for a few months aren't in line with the others that have been out for years!" And yes that is exactly what you would say.

We can say that WP7 is doing very well for its short duration of being on the market. It has the fastest growing marketplace, its poised to be the #2 mobile OS in a couple of years. WP7 are the happiest of the mobile phone users. Leave it up to AKH to bring any negativity to something everyone should be happy about.
0 Votes
+ -
Sour grapes and delusions
Economister Updated - 31st Mar 2011
@Loverock Davidson

Must be tough to be a MS fan boy and still have to deal with reality.
0 Votes
+ -
RE: Microsoft offers up
Loverock Davidson 31st Mar 2011
@Economister
Its rather easy correcting the FUD AKH posts.
  • Flagged
0 Votes
+ -
Message has been deleted.
LTV10 Updated - 31st Mar 2011
  • Flagged
0 Votes
+ -
RE: Microsoft offers up
tonymcs@... 31st Mar 2011
@Economister

No the reality is actually owning one, using it, developing for it and realising it's the best phone out there. Stock up on antidepressants now Economister, WP7 rocks.
0 Votes
+ -
RE: Microsoft offers up
john_gillespie@... 1st Apr 2011
Its the Ballmer distortion zone. Gates was smart and got out before it became an embarrassment. Sic transit gloria del mundo.
0 Votes
+ -
RE: Microsoft offers up
Rick_K 4th Apr 2011
@john_gillespie@?
So as-well-as a gravity distortion Zone and a no smell zone around sweaty Monkeyboi, they have created a reality distortion Zone?
0 Votes
+ -
RE: Microsoft offers up
Rick_K 6th Apr 2011
@tonymcs@?
SO you?re saying that WP7SOS phones are like pet rocks? Cool to look at, but other than that pretty useless? If you are a developer for this OS, then you should be interested in how many handsets are actively being used. I have only seen them in the AT&T store, never in actual use. Kind of like the Zune, I only saw those in stores, never in the wild. What happened to the Zune music players? Do they still make them?
0 Votes
+ -
RE: Microsoft offers up
Socratesfoot 31st Mar 2011
@Loverock Davidson "We can say that WP7 is doing very well", who's "we" do you admit now your paid by MS to troll? "its poised to be the #2 mobile OS in a couple of years", this was based on a report by IDC assuming that every single Simbian phone on the market today switches to WP7, doesn't that seem a little unrealistic? "WP7 are the happiest of the mobile phone users", are they, really? If only we had some indicator of satisfaction...something like sales numbers versus return numbers, or data usage. Then you could say that.
0 Votes
+ -
RE: Microsoft offers up
Loverock Davidson 31st Mar 2011
@Socratesfoot
"We" as in the consumers, the mobile users. IDC was right (surprisingly) with their prediction. Nokia is a well known brand name with a loyal customer base. There is no reason for any of their current customers to drop them, that's what loyalty is all about. Yes, WP7 are the happiest. Sales numbers will do nothing to measure that. What you can do is go to the WP7 forums and look at all the people who have them and they are always complimenting on what a great phone it is.
  • Flagged
0 Votes
+ -
RE: Microsoft offers up
non-biased 7th Apr 2011
@neilpost They got them into a lot of TV shows early on.

Join the conversation!

Formatting +
BB Codes - Note: HTML is not supported in forums
  • [b] Bold [/b]
  • [i] Italic [/i]
  • [u] Underline [/u]
  • [s] Strikethrough [/s]
  • [q] "Quote" [/q]
  • [ol][*] 1. Ordered List [/ol]
  • [ul][*] · Unordered List [/ul]
  • [pre] Preformat [/pre]
  • [quote] "Blockquote" [/quote]
ie8 fix
Click Here
ie8 fix

The best of ZDNet, delivered

ZDNet Newsletters

Get the best of ZDNet delivered straight to your inbox

Facebook Activity

Blog Roll

Blog Archive

White Papers, Webcasts, & Resources
ie8 fix
ie8 fix