Microsoft offers up "Windows Phone 7 numbers that (don't) matter"
Summary: Microsoft is at it again with Windows Phone 7, offering up numbers that it claims are the 'numbers that matter' but which in reality aren't the numbers that matter.
Microsoft is at it again with Windows Phone 7, offering up numbers that it claims are the 'numbers that matter' but which in reality aren't the numbers that matter.
Brandon Watson offers up the numbers on the Windows Phone Developer blog. Here's a breakdown:
- 1.5 million Visual Studio Express for Windows Phone and Expression Blend 4 for Windows Phone downloads
- 36,000 AppHub community members
- 11,500 apps
- 7,500 paid apps
- 1,200 developers added each week
- 1,100 ad-funded apps
- 12 app downloaded per customer on average
- 1.8 days for apps to be certified
- 62% of apps pass certification first time
- 44% of apps include trial versions
- 40% of registered developers have published an app
But there's one number that Microsoft isn't talking about - Windows Phone 7 activations. How many handsets are out there in the hands of users browsing the web and downloading apps? It's an important question that Microsoft continues to dodge.
In an attempt top get to the bottom of this I approached NetMarketShare to see what sort of Windows Phone 7 usage it's are seeing. Vince Vizzaccaro, EVP Marketing and Strategic Alliances at NetApplications.com had this to say:
We are tracking Windows Phone 7, but it hasn't gained enough market share yet to show up in our reports.
This gives us a clue as to how small the Windows Phone 7 usage actually is. The OS report for February goes as far as listing Windows CE with a usage share of 0.02% and browsers down as far as Chrome 4 with a usage share of 0.06%. That means that Windows Phone 7 (or the Windows Phone 7 IE browser) usage share much be lower than this. This means that the overall usage share for Windows Phone 7 must be incredibly low.
Microsoft, give us the numbers that really matter!
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Talkback
RE: Microsoft offers up
I am not sure there is much the MS propeller heads can do with this one.
RE: Microsoft offers up
RE: Microsoft offers up
<i>You are going to have the all the M$ fanbois cry babies screaming FUD. </i>
I would say that is coming up with the right answer to the wrong question. A better comparison would show % of overall mobile share.
See the iPhone only has 1% of total browser share. All mobile browser combined account for, what 2.5% of the entire graph? It's like trying to judge the success of a new Airbus airplane by comparing it's % usage share against all modes of transportation.
The best data so far for WP7 is still off of Facebook. Which shows iPhone (all models) at about 100x the usage share of WP7. Nothing to gloat about for a WP7 fan. But it still means that WP7 is playing in the same ballpark as the initial iPhone sales, and better than the initial android sales.
RE: Microsoft offers up
Well, the graph tracks down to windows CE (!?!?).
I don`t know a single person who is still using or even OWNs a WinCE device!
WP7 numbers are obviously even lower than Windows CE numbers. For me, this figure is more than conclusive!
RE: Microsoft offers up
I though Windows Mobile 6.x was based on winCE. I've got one of those (Samsung Jack) in my pocket right now and use it all the time, but I don't usually use the web browser on it. Mostly, I use it for phone, text, and email.
RE: Microsoft offers up
All previous versions of Windows Mobile plus whatever odd bits are still running CE are getting rolled up under Windows CE in that chart. Not surprising at all.
Android and iOS would have been buried on that chart close to release as well. If NetApplications are tracking it, then what is the actual value? AKH seems to be replying to MS posting numbers that don't matter by posting numbers that don't say anything because relevant data is bumped off the chart by inclusion of main-line OSes.
Facebook and the IDC data (showing 5% market share) are the only pieces of good recent data that I know of.
RE: Microsoft offers up
<i>Facebook and the IDC data (showing 5% market share) are the only pieces of good recent data that I know of.</i>
The IDC data combines all versions of Windows Mobile, not just WP7SOS phones. Remember before WP7SOS phones were released, Windows Mobile had 6.8% so a loss of over 1% does not speak well for WP7SOS phone adoption. If the number of activated units was something to write home about (so to speak), Microsoft would have press releases about it, just like the Kinect.
RE: Microsoft offers up
Anyhow, OF COURSE these numbers matter. Without strong developer support, a mobile platform will fail. The point of these numbers is to show that there is, indeed, strong and growing developer support. Clearly those developers see something they like.
Actually, the number that matters is HOW MANY ARE THE ACTIVATING. Without
RE: Microsoft offers up
RE: Microsoft offers up
<i>Without strong developer support, a mobile platform will fail. The point of these numbers is to show that there is, indeed, strong and growing developer support. Clearly those developers see something they like.</i>
Only one small problem with your assumption: If there are no willing customers, then the developers will abandon ship. This will take some time, as they will buy into the Reality Distortion Zone (RDZ) thinking. Once they realize how much more money they could make developing for the other platforms, they will need anti-depressants.
RE: Microsoft offers up
Message has been deleted.
RE: Microsoft offers up
RE: Microsoft offers up
<i>You will get the numbers sometime Adrian, but all they are going to do is make you depressed as MS grabs more and more marketshare until you wake up one day and Apple will be at 9% and the rest will be Windows - sound familiar?</i>
Or it could end up being you that is depressed. If this version of the Kin goes the same way as the last version? Sound familiar? Even using the numbers from ?Facebook? as a baseline there are only 460,000 WP7SOS phones in the hands of customers, compared to 100,000,000 iPhones.
RE: Microsoft offers up
RE: Microsoft offers up
Unlike the Linux fan-boys, the Microsoft fan-boys don't tend to scream 'FUD' at anything that isn't in line with their biases. Microsoft are being quiet about the numbers, so bloggers are naturally speculating that they're low. It's a reasonable assumption, and may prod Microsoft into providing more details.
I don't know anything about Windows Phone's progress in the US market, but I do know that Telekom, the dominant operator in Germany, have said Windows Phone is selling ahead of expectations. Its market share is of course still tiny, but it now shows up in the StatCounter results for Germany:
http://gs.statcounter.com/#mobile_os-DE-monthly-201104-201104-bar
A hit rate of 1.2 per cent is hardly a roaring success, but it was 0 per cent in December. Even if Windows Phone continues to add only 0.4 per cent per month, it will still overtake Symbian's current hit share (7.53 per cent) next year, to move into third place behind iOS and Android.
An important point here is that there hasn't been any big advertising push for Windows Phone in Germany. I haven't seen any advertising for it at all, actually. If Nokia ship Windows Phones this year, and together with Microsoft and the operators (e.g. Telekom) start pushing them, I'd say a continuation of the current trend is extremely conservative. Once Nokia ship, Windows Phone could rapidly overtake Symbian in Germany and move into third place. From there, it could become a serious challenger to Android, though I expect iOS will continue to rule for some time.
According to bloggers, Windows Phone 7 hasn't sold as well as expected in the US. Assuming that's correct, I suspect it's partly down to the unusual market structure, where a lot of the operators require special models using non-standard technologies (e.g. CDMA), instead of standard GSM models. All of the initial Windows Phone models were GSM, and the main GSM operator in the US are AT&T, who are also the main (and until recently sole) iPhone distributor. This was hardly an ideal combination for Microsoft.
With CDMA models having now apparently shipped, Windows Phone may start to sell better in the US. Still, with the Nokia partnership, my bet would be that if Windows Phone succeeds, its will happen first in Europe, and perhaps in Germany. If I were running Microsoft, I'd be working with Nokia and Telekom for a major marketing push later this year. The German market may be small next to the US market, but it's the biggest market in Europe, and Europe as a whole is the biggest market in the world. With a solid European base, it will be a lot easier for Microsoft/Nokia to break into the US too.
It took Android six months to breach 1 per cent in Germany
It took over a year for Android to breach 5 per cent, but in its second year it exploded to more than 20 per cent, and iOS tumbled from over 72 to less than 58 per cent. Only time will tell if Windows Phone will do the same, but a market split of 30 per cent or so each for iOS, Android and Windows certainly looks plausible.
The Nokia launch will be important, but even without it, Windows Phone has been following a similar trend to Android in its first year. The key is probably to have a range of handsets, which is something Windows Phone will have once Nokia start shipping in volume. It's likely that iOS will continue to decline relative to the others, since it had an early lead, but is a single device from a single vendor.
RE: Microsoft offers up
First off: WP7SOS phones were released on <b>many carriers in many countries</b>. Compared to the iPhone that was released in <b>One country on One carrier</b>. The success of the iPhone was (is) ease of use., something that WP7SOS phones only claim to have.
Secondly:If anything the constantly updating icons would be more distracting to the younger people. I have seen some of these fools walk into street lights, and fences, because they spend more time texting (and possibly sexting) than paying attention to where they are going.
For the younger people, the artificial ADD generation, that needs to constantly be connected to Facebook, Myspace, and Twitter; WP7SOS phones do not give them a resin to take part in reality, but would cause even further distractions from reality.