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Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

Steve Jobs is right about tablets, right about RIM, wrong about Android, and kills off the "7-inch iPad" nonsense

By | October 19, 2010, 7:50am PDT

Apple CEO Steve Jobs was in fighting spirits during yesterday’s earnings conference call and found the time to take swipes at, well, pretty much every Apple competitor out there.

This is the first time we’ve heard Jobs address investors for two years, and he took the opportunity to attack almost everything non-Apple.

Let’s start with tablets. Here’s what Jobs had to say

“The current crop of 7-inch tablets are going to be DOA, dead on arrival. Their manufacturers will learn the painful lesson that their tablets are too small.”

I agree with Jobs on this one. I believe that price has more to do with 7-inch tablets than portability or usability does. OEMs like the idea of 7-inch tablets because they’ll be cheaper than 9.7-inch tablets like the iPad. In theory a 7-inch screen tablet sounds like a good idea, but in practice it’s a size that falls uncomfortably between the iPad and smartphones. Too large to carry like a cellphone, too small to use like a proper tablet.

The fact that Jobs attacked 7-inch tablets so hard is the best indication to date that Apple doesn’t have plans for a 7-inch iPad. I never believed that there were any plans for a 7-inch iPad outside of the minds of people who spend their time building houses of cards out of guesses and hunches. And that’s putting it mildly. In fact, I’d go as far as to say that the 7-inch iPad “rumors” were little more than slow news day BS.

It’s hard to see how Apple could have competitively priced a 7-inch iPad given the cost of the screen compared to the total component cost of the device.

I sense a rocky road for 7-inch tablets.

Let’s now shift out attention to what Jobs had to say about RIM:

“I don’t see them catching up with us in the foreseeable future.”

Makes sense. RIM nowadays seems to be more interested in clinging onto its existing customer base than dramatically expanding.

Google’s Android platform came under scrutiny:

“Unlike Windows, where most PCs have the same user interface and run the same apps, many Android OEMs, including the two largest, HTC and Motorola, install user interfaces to differentiate themselves. Compare this with iPhone, where every handset looks the same.”

He went on to say:

“We think Android is very, very fragmented and becomes more so every day. We think this is a huge strength of our approach when compared to Google’s. We think integrated will trump fragmented every time.”

And:

“The multiple hardware and software iterations presents developers with a daunting challenge.”

I think that Jobs is trying to make out that the Android market is far more fragmented and differentiated than it actually is. Sure, there are plenty of handsets on offer, but underneath a thin veneer of customizations Android is Android. And as 2.0+ versions of the OS take over from earlier versions, the fragmentation issue is getting better, as opposed to getting worse.

And what about those multiple handsets from a variety of OEMs (and offered of a variety of networks)? What Jobs sees as fragmentation, others see as choice.

Jobs did go on to make a point about Android in general that I agree with:

Apple strives for the integrated model so that the user isn’t forced to be the systems integrator. We see tremendous value at having Apple, rather than our users, be the systems integrator. We think this a huge strength of our approach compared to Google’s. When selling to users who want their devices to just work, we believe that integrated will trump fragmented every time.

That’s a good point, and strikes at the heart of what Android ultimately is - a platform for people who relish technology and like to tinker. iOS is designed with consumers in mind. Android is designed with geeks in mind.

Jobs spend a lot of time Google-bashing during the conference call, going well beyond the swipes he took at other competitors. It’s clear that Google, or at least Android, that represents the biggest threat to Apple’s business today. Apple no longer sees Microsoft as a threat.

Oh, and for your entertainment, I give you Steve Jobs’ five minute Google rant. Enjoy!

No matter what you think of Apple, that was one heck of an earnings conference call!

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Adrian Kingsley-Hughes is an internationally published technology author who has devoted over a decade to helping users get the most from technology.

Disclosure

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

All opinions expressed on Hardware 2.0 are those of Adrian Kingsley-Hughes. Every effort is made to ensure that the information posted is accurate. If you have any comments, queries or corrections, please contact Adrian via the email link here. Any possible conflicts of interest will be posted below. [Updated: February 23, 2010] - Adrian Kingsley-Hughes has no business relationships, affiliations, investments, or other actual/potential conflicts of interest relating to the content posted so far on this blog.

Biography

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes is an internationally published technology author who has devoted over a decade to helping users get the most from technology -- whether that be by learning to program, building a PC from a pile of parts, or helping them get the most from their new MP3 player or digital camera.

Adrian has authored/co-authored technical books on a variety of topics, ranging from programming to building and maintaining PCs. His most recent books include "Build the Ultimate Custom PC", "Beginning Programming" and "The PC Doctor's Fix It Yourself Guide". He has also written training manuals that have been used by a number of Fortune 500 companies.

Adrian also runs a popular blog under the name The PC Doctor, where he covers a range of computer-related topics -- from security to repairing and upgrading.

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I just have to ask...
ExploreMN 10th Dec
What did you expect Steve to say when addressing his investors??? "Wow, we really missed the boat on screen sizes. Android is kicking our butts in market share because one size does NOT fit all. Android really isn't that fragmented and if ICS does what Google says it will, we are in serious trouble because fragmentation will be a thing of the past. Not to mention a lot of people like having a UI they can set up the way they like. With our product, every device looks exactly the same and customers are getting board, but if we change anything we will be called hypocrites. So we need to keep it the same. We are also locked into our 3.5" phone display and 9.7" tablet displays for the same reason. Since we can no longer compete and innovate we will instead try to block these companies with all those bullsh!t patents we were able to bribe our way through the USPTO with. That will keep our company on top for a little while longer. Eventually we will get the smack down on a global level, but for the short term, we will remain on top. Seriously investors, make as much money as you can now off of us because we will be a shadow of our former selves, financially speaking, in the future. Thank you for your time and support. It's been a good ride." Did you really expect him to say the truth like that????
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Tablet technology is overhyped
Dietrich T. Schmitz, ~ Your Linux Advocate 19th Oct 2010
Netbooks are currently outselling iPads by a margin of 4:1.

Steve Jobs seems to overlook that and is more than a bit disingenuous himself when he characterizes Google, Android in an 'open' vs. 'closed' context. Does he truly not know what was meant by 'open'? I think not.

fyi:
http://www.reghardware.com/2010/10/14/netbook_shipments_vs_tablets/

Netbook sales will continue to eclipse tablet sales for at least another year.

The iPad, in particular, is really a niche, walled garden product.
like a plain old larger screen netbook (11.5 inches), but, with a touchscreen.

I bet that apple will announce some larger screen tablets soon, and, some smaller screen Macbook Airs.
@Dietrich T. Schmitz, Your Linux Advocate Android maybe open, but the US carriers are making it closed, they are adding things to make root harder and harder to get.
@mrlinux I cant remember who it was, but someone released an android based phone over the summer that was rooted the same day it was released. not sure how thats making things harder......
@mrlinux Yup, some are. That's the problem with freedom... everyone gets to use it or abuse it their own way. Given today's free flow of information, it's pretty clear that, as long as fully open hardware is demanded, there will be customers rejecting that sort of thing. And laws, perhaps. Reviewers need to be diligent in exposing these limitations, and consumers need to be vocal about why they're rejecting a particular phone model. This can be stopped, but not if everyone assumes it's just inevitable.
"The iPad, in particular, is really a niche, walled garden product."

Really? Is that just a jab to get people going or do you truely believe that? My iPad quickly replaced my netbook, and may very well replace my laptop too. Sure there is a learning curve, and content creation is different, but this is an outstanding computing device that will only get better, netbooks will be replaced by tablets, and I doubt any other tablet will outshine the iPad any time soon.
@E Conner
I agree with this. I can't believe how my iPad is my second appendage (my iPhone being the other), and I only use my netbook when my iPad is currently charging, which I might add is few and far between charges. I was happy to experience such a robust and functional product owning an iPad. So far the tablet prototypes out there seem to be small, ugly buggers. HA!
@E Conner
You may not use your laptop for any serious tasks, but for a heavy user no matter how much one likes the concept of the iPad, its not going to replace a laptop due to its single tasking limitations, and if you need to do a lot of typing a keyboard has a definite advantage.
Of course if apple brings out one with multitasking and a usb connection so you can plug a keyboard in that may change, but I don't think thats coming soon.

the lack of flash support is also another reason to not abandon the laptop but thats a more personal thing and may not bother some as much.
@E Conner

If you plan on replacing your laptop with an iPad, then you probably dont do a lot with your laptop. Keyboard wins over touchscreen for data entry every time (imo).
@Dietrich T. Schmitz, Your Linux Advocate ... sure Dietrich, sales of 4.19 million units in one quarter really seems a niche market to me, lol?
@ron.connal@... There are 6 billion people on the planet, 4.19 mill isnt a drop in the bucket
@Dietrich T. Schmitz: Jobsie is a marketing guy. You would think that, one of these days, someone would explain to him the meaning of "open" (well, the various meanings of "open", in-context).

And while they're at it, they ought to explain to him the main purpose of an OS -- to isolate applications from hardware. His claim of "integerated" systems failed back in the early Mac days (the early Macs were among the most abysmal hardware designs ever inflicted on the computer buying public, a shame after the excellent Apple ][ series), and it's even less appropos today... in a world where Macs ARE exactly the same as PCs, and pretty much all smart phones and tablets, including Apple's, are based on the same SOC cores from ARM and a few others (Apple's A4 is a stripped-down versions of the SOCs Samsung's using in the Galaxy S series).
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"Apple no longer sees Microsoft as a threat."
OS Reload Updated - 19th Oct 2010
That line must be really depressing reading for those oh so silly Microsoft fans.

iSteve no longer cares about what Microsoft does or does not, bwahaha.
being, he is more than willing to let MS self-destruct, they are doing a fine job without any help from Apple.
@OS Reload

Reverse the names and I was pretty sure I read that same line about 12 years ago regarding Apple.
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@OS Reload At the end of the day the iPad is a toy; a very good toy mind you. I have access to ipads/iphones but choose RIM for corporate use and Android for personal use. The iPad is way too big for practical office use and I would't be so cocky if I were you or iJobs. I've long advocated a smaller pad and 7" does it for me. Something I'm likely to uplift as I go about my job, something like the natty clamshell designs I spotted earlier today.

Ipad is largely consumer use as far as I'm concerned and does serve a good purpose in internet and movie content. Business wise... give me a smaller gadget that sits on the right side of the firewall any day.

The next few months will be interesting! And you should open your mind before your mouth!
What a ******* blowhard. People actually listen to this drivel?
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@Droid101

Get used to it, Microsoft is well on its way towards irrelevance. Pretty soon not even Richard Stallman will care about what Microsoft does or does not.
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Someone needs to get their eyes check
Yax_to_the_Max 19th Oct 2010
@OS Reload

He's a Droid fan!
@OS Reload
They're not going away; they still have a near monopoly on the enterprise.

I'll agree that aside from the XBox though (which has cost MS Billions of dollars establishing a presence), in the consumer space, Microsoft is all thumbs. I don't see a bright future for WP7, Zune or any other direct to consumer venture.
@Droid101

More than listen to you.

Or me.
and the sweet spot 11.5 inches. But, the 7 inch might be VERY good in isolated verticals with a very specific application that only needs 7 inches.
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case for a 7" (6")
toviz@... 19th Oct 2010
@DonnieBoy
As a user of a proper e-reader (e-ink) I find a 6" screen better size-wise then a 10" for long term reading (novels). Whilst the lager screen of the iPad makes good sense for magazine and newpapers, I find it nowhere as comfortable for reading novels, so I would be interested in a 7" screen despite what Jobs says.
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Why buy an ipad just to read novels?
Tigertank 20th Oct 2010
@toviz@...
A tablet is more than just a reading device. It sounds like you should get a kindle.
@Tigertank
what? whats mentioning a kindle got to do with this discussion, (and what makes you think I don't have one anyway).
I was pointing out that 10" is generally too big (and heavy) for serious reading and not as portable. Even this 8" unit from Moonse would be better.
http://cgi.ebay.com.au/Moonse-8-ANDROID-WiFi-TABLET-16GB-32GB-robot-epad-/120632659962?pt=AU_eBookReaders&hash=item1c16444ffa
to make it easier for developer to deal with the differences, and, iPhones have differences that developers have to deal with too. Most of the Android phones are getting upgraded to 2.0 or later. Variety in design and price will win out. Freedom for many different players to innovate will win out.
I think you hit the nail square on:

"iOS is designed with consumers in mind. Android is designed with geeks in mind."

Where are the margins? With consumers that you can attract by delivering products outside of the commodity market. Apple does that very well and the iPad will simple be another very profitable line.

As for Android, I think Jobs put some needed insight on the table - maybe Google will tighten up their software for consistency with both the developers and consumers.

The sleeper might be HP with their Palm products, throwing in a major battle for Second Place that will kill margins.
Once again steve jobs doesn't seem to understand that not everyone believes what he believes. Just because he doesn't like 7" tablets doesn't mean another person won't. And why is 10 inch perfect. Why not 11"? He just doesn't get it. I bet you if ipad came in flavors of 7-11 inches, there would be a variety out there own by apple users. Jobs is phrasing this like if apple presented 7-11 inch tablets an overwhelming majority would buy the 10 inch version only.

I suppose this is one way to detract from the fact that sales of ipads were only 4.1 million this quarter. Thats about the number of PCs that get shipped each week.
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All Remember When Steve Said....
mrlinux 19th Oct 2010
Who would want to watch video on an iPod with such a small screen ??? He maybe be baiting everyone.
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I am not so sure about that. There is the right size for each applicatioin. Consider cars. What about a "snap-in" space for a 7" tablet integrated right in the head unit of the car. This is for the driver not the passengers. A tablet with Wifi connection to a 3G mobile hotspot in the car. This would really make the road warrior rock. Calendar, contacts, call lists, navigation all at your fingertips and synced to the cloud. No fumbling around with your mobile phone. That is what I am looking for.
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Just a side note...
rlorenz 19th Oct 2010
Jobs sounds like a girl on this recording. haha
I've got enough Grey hair (and wisdom) to remember the last time Steve Jobs made this prediction.... Windows vs Mac. Although Windows wasn't completely open in the sense Linux or Android is, they were quite open to having a variable platform that manufacturers could tune and customize and look what happened to the Mac. You can go even further back and contrast the original MS-DOS PC with the Apple II variants... no contest. Integrated doesn't always trump fragmented... if that was true we'd all be using Frameworks today.

I also think he's wrong about the 7" display. The iPad is too big to be used as a book. The darn thing weighs a pound and a half. The new RIM Playbook (and a host of other Android versions) come in well under a pound. That extra half pound adds up when you are holding it up and reading it. If huge was so great why are they only now coming out with an 11 inch Mac Air??? Why not a 17" like all the competitors laptops?

It must be great to stand up on stage in front of thousands of adoring syncophants and make grand prouncements that you KNOW are wrong. He's such a prima donna. I didn't like him in Apple II days and I don't like him now (although I do own some Apple gear that isn't half bad).
@mapsonburt
"If huge was so great why are they only now coming out with an 11 inch Mac Air??? Why not a 17" like all the competitors laptops? "

For a start, the iPad isn't huge. It's actually the perfect size. It's a hi-res magazine, an A4 notebook and the bit of any screen we all use most. Bigger would be wrong. Smaller would be what the Kindle dreams of being... and would be if it was colour.

Next, there has been a call for a 12" Mac portable ever since the last 12" aluminium PowerBook was discontinued. Now, that was a popular niche device.

Lastly, Apple made the first decent 17" laptop and have been doing so continuously since the PowerBook G4 of January 2003. It's the industry standard. I've owned them and they competently act as portable design platforms as well as desktop replacements. But they're really too heavy to lug around on a daily basis, as are all 17" laptops, all 15" PCs and, from a personal point of view, 15" MacBook Pros. Been there, done that. I want lightness now. I will be getting the 2nd generation iPad.

The 7" form factor may well also have a niche. Indeed, I can imagine it would be ideal for slipping into one's pocket. But I've got my iPhone 4 for that, and I can make calls on it too. So why would I want to carry another pocketable device?

As I say, I'm sure some OEMs will shift numbers of these. They won't shift significant numbers and they won't be very good. And this is obvious btw. Products become great when the company that makes them has resources to design, develop and continue to develop them.

But, Apple only needed to hint that they were going to release a 7" iPad to set the industry, including the likes of the terminally deficient Dell, off down that road. What does that tell you?

It tells me these other manufacturers are just plain lazy. They don't even bother to employ original thinking, they just wait for Apple to show them a lead. Not only would I never buy any product from such a short sighted and unimaginative company, no one else should either. It's plain folly.

And if you think the real argument is about the difference between so-called open and closed or integrated systems, then you're mistaken. It's all a techie's wet dream of a smoke screen.

The real choice is between business models. One works and has eight revenue streams, while the other hasn't planned beyond disrupting a competitor's field by employing a scattergun approach... after it's own retail ambitions failed.

Don't be evil? BS. Don't be dumb.
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Presumptions and Megalomania
cushcalc 19th Oct 2010
Don't presume that your preference will hold for all. I want something 5-7" - so many times I have to zoom in Safari on iPhone so I can read small text. I just want something big enough that I don't have to do that, but don't want something as big and heavy as the iPad.

That's just my opinion. I'm not presuming there are lots of others that feel my way, but I hope there are. If the product is made, the market will bear out whether it is wanted by enough to be be profitable.

Also, Jobs says "every handset looks the same" - well, even Apple lets users now have their own background, but customizing (via jailbreak for iPhone, via carrier or rooting for Android) is something that a significant percentage of users want to do (even if only 10%, that is significant).
@cushcalc
Youre right, there plenty of us out here who think a smaller screen has its place.

As I replied to @DonnieBoy
As a user of a proper e-reader (e-ink) I find a 6" screen better size-wise then a 10" for long term reading (novels). Whilst the lager screen of the iPad makes good sense for magazine and newpapers, I find it nowhere as comfortable for reading novels, so I would be interested in a 7" screen despite what Jobs says.
This "Steve just doesn't get it" BS is getting old. Apple reinvented the tablet device which, in the case of the iPad is not a PC, though some still feel the need to compare it to one; rather, it's an entirely new product with literally no competition that has, from day one, been selling exceedingly well. There are a few lame tablets lying around that try to run Windows 7 on cheap hardware, but since Windows is not a touch optimized OS, such tablets can only fail - as they've been doing for years now. The iPad caught everyone flat footed and no one yet knows what to make of it, let alone how to compete with it.

Adrian overlooks entirely Jobs' quite accurate observation that Google is not presently developing Android for tablets and, in fact, is actively discouraging Android tablet development. So just who - or what - is going to compete with the iPad? At the moment there's nothing out there but vaporware. It's not Steve Jobs that's not getting it. As he said, he dropped by (the earnings call) for Apple's first 20 billion dollar quarter. Apple sales growth outstripped the market in every segment in which they compete, including Google's Android and RIM.

Adrian further underrates Apple's business model, wherein they develop both the hardware and software, a system that supports a range of well integrated products. It is this integration which sets the iDevices apart from the crowd and makes them appealing to developers and consumers alike, a fact amply demonstrated by the number of apps available for the iPhone, the iPod touch and the iPad. You can say what you like about the virtues of "closed" and "open" systems, but the numbers don't lie.

Google (and Adobe) have tried to make a big deal out of the supposed advantages of open as opposed to closed systems, but since their claims are little more than boiler plate marketing hype, Steve is entirely justified in re-framing the discussion in such a way as to show Apple's approach in a more favorable light. At worst his integrated vs. fragmented description is no more artificial than the closed vs. open argument. At best, Apple's "walled garden" is far less vulnerable to fraud and malware than Google's unmoderated approach. As far as security goes, Android is just another Windows. It's only a matter of time before you'll have to buy a security suite for your Android phone, just as you do for your Windows PC. What, pray tell, will that do to the cost of ownership, not to mention performance?
@thewhitedog

And the eight revenue streams!
The Google Android experiment will eventually fragment. It's inevitable.

Jobs is right. Choice always looks like a better deal than it actually is.
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Hybrid is the sweet spot.
TripleII-21189418044173169409978279405827 19th Oct 2010
Here's what I would like to buy, a netbook where, literally, the screen simply docks onto the keyboard. When in keyboard, it goes to landscape ala slide out keyboard, you unplug it (hot), it works like a non keyboard phone. Imagine your iPad, you are happily using it on the go (or Android ipad), you slide back the cover, slide it into the screen slot and poof, you have a computer.

Take any slider phone as an example. It auto-adapts to portrait/landscape based on if the keyboard is out, nothing prevents any manyfacturer from making the two pieces separate and easily merged.

TripleII
Uh... what did you expect him to say at a meeting like that? "I'm doing a lousy job, so fire me."
I think he's mostly trying to keep his Apple fanboi base, and I don't think RIM has anything to worry about from Apple. Even with its flaws, the BB is still the best smart phone.
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He's wrong on 7 inch tablets
roystonlodge 19th Oct 2010
I bought one of those super-cheap EKEN m001 tablets via eBay.

Underpowered? Yes. Obsolete version of Android? Yes. Terrible touchscreen? Yes. Awful battery life? Yes.

However, the one thing I absolutely LOVE about the device is the form-factor. The 7-inch screen provides me with a device that is large enough to actually get some work done, but small enough to fit in the inner pocket of my suit jacket. Perfect, perfect, perfect.

Also, the plethora of REAL buttons at the bottom of the device are also a nice touch.

If the machine had decent internals, a better touchscreen, and a better battery, I would be head-over-heels in love with it.
@roystonlodge

I just want to see if I understand: The device is underpowered, obsolete, the screen is terrible, and it has poor battery life, but it's perfect because of it's size?

Talk about form over function.
"We think the Windows and PC hardware market is very, very fragmented and becomes more so every day. We think this is a huge strength of our approach when compared to Windows. We think integrated approach of the Mac will trump fragmented every time.

The multiple hardware and software iterations of x86 presents developers with a daunting challenge. With Our platforms, developers have no choices but to use our tools and systems

Apple strives for the total controlled integrated model so that the user doesnt have any choice isnt forced to be the systems integrator. We see tremendous rippoff value at having Apple, rather than our users, benefit from inexpensive hardware be the systems integrator. We think this a huge strength of our approach compared to being honest about our margins . When selling to users who want their devices to just work [for the devotees to repeat three times facing east], we believe that closed system integrated will trump fragmented every time."
Windows 7 sells at a much higher rate than tablets. An Ipad is heavy, thats its main problem along with the charging issue. Try a kindle3, runs for weeks and is lighter than a paperback.
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I just have to ask...
ExploreMN 10th Dec
What did you expect Steve to say when addressing his investors??? "Wow, we really missed the boat on screen sizes. Android is kicking our butts in market share because one size does NOT fit all. Android really isn't that fragmented and if ICS does what Google says it will, we are in serious trouble because fragmentation will be a thing of the past. Not to mention a lot of people like having a UI they can set up the way they like. With our product, every device looks exactly the same and customers are getting board, but if we change anything we will be called hypocrites. So we need to keep it the same. We are also locked into our 3.5" phone display and 9.7" tablet displays for the same reason. Since we can no longer compete and innovate we will instead try to block these companies with all those bullsh!t patents we were able to bribe our way through the USPTO with. That will keep our company on top for a little while longer. Eventually we will get the smack down on a global level, but for the short term, we will remain on top. Seriously investors, make as much money as you can now off of us because we will be a shadow of our former selves, financially speaking, in the future. Thank you for your time and support. It's been a good ride." Did you really expect him to say the truth like that????

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