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Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

Why Adobe is right to abandon Linux, why it's no big deal, and why this could be bad for Mozilla

By | February 23, 2012, 4:53am PST

Summary: By the time the Flash plug-in is longer supported by Adobe, Flash won’t matter any more.

Adobe has essentially abandoned Linux, with the company’s latest roadmap barely mentioning the platform. But ultimately, Adobe is right to ditch Linux, and while this could be a blow to Mozilla’s Firefox browser, overall it’s not really a big deal.

OK, so why was Adobe right to abandon Linux?

Well, the usage share figures for Linux say it all really. Take this from NetMarketShare:

Image credit: NetMarketShare

That chart there is a little optimistic in saying that Linux has a market share of 2 percent. In fact, it’s 1.56 percent. You might be able to find a data source that gives Linux a better market share, but it’s not going to be much better. In terms of current usage, and growth, Linux is dead in the water. Outside of the kernel forming the foundation for Android (that platform is going places) and server use, Linux is a fringe platform, and it’s hard for a company like Adobe to justify continuing to support the platform.

Note: Also, as of Adobe AIR 3, that platform is also dead as far as Linux is concerned.

It’s hard to spin 1 percent as anything other than 1 percent.

But why is it not a big deal?

But Flash isn’t vanishing from Linux completely. Following the Flash Player 11.2  release for Linux, the only way to get on-going Flash support will be via the Google Chrome browser. Flash Player 11.2 will continue to see security updates for five years, but the only platform that will see new versions that bring new features and developments is Chrome.

Yes, I did say five years. The Adobe Flash plug-in will be supported by Adobe for five years, but in web years that’s a very long time indeed. While it does mean that users won’t be able to make use of any new Flash features, it does mean that they’ll still be able to make use of Flash on the web. And when support for the release expires in 2017, I doubt that anyone will be that bothered by it because we will have all moved on to a web powered by HTML 5.

Bottom line, it’s hard to get worked up about this given that Linux will still support Flash for the foreseeable future. 11.2 will offer basic support, and anyone wanting the latest and greatest can jump over to Google Chrome.

So why might this be bad for Firefox?

It’s not so much users I see getting caught up in the crossfire here over Flash, it’s Mozilla. For years Firefox has enjoyed pride of place as the browser of choice for most Linux distros. This gave the browser a foothold among the greybeards, who in turn became evangelists for the web platform.

But now there’s a new kid of the block, and it has an ace up its sleeve. If Google Chrome is the only browser that can deliver the latest Flash experience to Linux, then I can see the browser making an appearance. maybe initially it will be installed alongside Firefox, but I could see the day when Chrome becomes the new Linux darling.

This a big deal for Firefox because the browser is already in rapid decline and it’s giving ground to Google Chrome:

Image credit: NetMarketShare

Linux isn’t itself a huge market, it’s a segment that’s been loyal to Mozilla and Firefox, but given how bad things have gone for Firefox since Chrome appeared on the scene, being sidelined in Linux could be the last straw.

So all you Linux users can stop panicking!

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Adrian Kingsley-Hughes is an internationally published technology author who has devoted over a decade to helping users get the most from technology.

Disclosure

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

All opinions expressed on Hardware 2.0 are those of Adrian Kingsley-Hughes. Every effort is made to ensure that the information posted is accurate. If you have any comments, queries or corrections, please contact Adrian via the email link here. Any possible conflicts of interest will be posted below. [Updated: February 23, 2010] - Adrian Kingsley-Hughes has no business relationships, affiliations, investments, or other actual/potential conflicts of interest relating to the content posted so far on this blog.

Biography

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes is an internationally published technology author who has devoted over a decade to helping users get the most from technology -- whether that be by learning to program, building a PC from a pile of parts, or helping them get the most from their new MP3 player or digital camera.

Adrian has authored/co-authored technical books on a variety of topics, ranging from programming to building and maintaining PCs. His most recent books include "Build the Ultimate Custom PC", "Beginning Programming" and "The PC Doctor's Fix It Yourself Guide". He has also written training manuals that have been used by a number of Fortune 500 companies.

Adrian also runs a popular blog under the name The PC Doctor, where he covers a range of computer-related topics -- from security to repairing and upgrading.

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Top Rated

RE: Why Adobe is right to abandon Linux, why it's no big deal, and why this could be bad for Mozilla
fatman65535 23rd Feb
@saneu@...

I wish I could help you, but all of my Windows drivers are on cassette tape!

Just In

Good Flag, Troll
marc van hoff 16th Mar
Since you obviously can't present any of your information in a logical and structured manner, I will brand you as yet another Micro$uck fanboy trolling on this site.
I hope the Mods get rid of your nonsense.
I keep trying Chrome, but I just can't get on with it.

As to Flash, the first thing I do in Safari, Chrome and Firefox is install a Flash Blocker anyway.

On the other hand, OS X only has 6% of the market... How long until the only way to get Flash on OS X is in Chrome? wink
@wright_is I agree, I've tried Chrome and just can't use it....it annoys me.
@DreyerSmit Chrome is like a browser made by someone who never saw a browser, or something?
@wright_is
First thing I do is install a flash blocker.
Same here.
As far as Chrome, it works for me. 90% of the sites I go to.
(even on most MS support sites I frequent)
1 Vote
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Chrome works
wright_is 23rd Feb
Oh, it works, just not how I want it to... The UI isn't as good as Firefox.
0 Votes
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Chrome... and Apple
alan_r_cam 24th Feb
I had a nightmare experience with Chrome, thanks to loaning a laptop to a bilingual friend. She set the thing to default in Thai. Do you think I could change it back? Not a chance - all the menu was in Thai, and I was guessing which menu command was the language changer. In the end it was easier to remove and re-install it.

Sad thing is - she also used my iPad, and I had the EXACT same fault. Unreadable settings! I had to borrow another iPad, find the right tab, memorise the tab location, then go back to mine and change it.

[Sigh] the concept of a country flag on the international settings tab is so logical - and so easily forgotten by those who ASSUME everything will readable by the end user.

Acid test: Set your product to Arabic or Chinese, then hand it to your average citizen - can they change it back?
0 Votes
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Curse my dyslexia
kludd 29th Feb
Wake me up when the headline reads "Why Mozilla is right to abandon Adobe Flash".
0 Votes
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chrome
michaellashinsky@... 5th Mar
It is aggravating. I want to enable the menu bar so I can find the options I want to change. I'll stick with FF
3 Votes
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adobe was wrong to abandon Linux
The Linux Geek 23rd Feb
Linux is the platform of the future and the myopic leadership at adobe failed to see the writing on the wall. I suspect that threats made by apple and M$ behind the scene also played a role.
@The Linux Geek
Funny. I've been hearing this for the last 10 years.
Thanks, you just made my day.
@TheCyberKnight

What you are not taking into consideration is that those Linux figures are heavily skewed, based on probably on "bought" PC installs. Linux comprises a lot more than just 2% of the population.

The majority of smartphones run on Linux. Linux itself is seeing a much larger conversion rate than even a year ago with Linux Mint and Ubuntu getting more and more Windows users using it.

No, this is a very shortsighted move on Adobe's part, one of the many in recent years. With W3C's HTML5 Canvas adoption of open-licensed video drivers on the horizon and Apple and many other companies pushing for its use over Flash, Adobe can't afford to lose a free and very large core of developers which make tools that the public at large on all OS's use. Once they convert them to using Canvas, it will be done.
@Rexibit

Although the article doesn't specifically mention it, the figures are about desktop use, which is also the subject of my comment.

I won't discuss further your comment about phones since, at the level you present it, you are right. For the Windows migration, it always happened, will continue but you forget to mention that migrations in the other way do exist even though, for advocates, it is better to keep this quiet.

For HTML5 slowly pushing Flash out of the battle arena, it is true and a lot of people just can't wait for the final blow. Did you ever consider that Adobe may, on the contrary, foresee this day coming and is already putting its efforts elsewhere? Therefore, the Linux community support simply becomes as irrelevant as its current desktop market share.
1 Vote
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" I've been hearing this for the last 10 years."

See, you're looking *back*. Linux is the platform of the *future*. happy
@The Linux Geek

Linux is the platform of the future ...

Lol nice one, almost had me believing it for a second.
1 Vote
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The other option is ...
orendon 24th Feb
.. we as robots unable to figure how a OS works, and consuming what our masters want us to.
@The Linux Geek So 2012 is finally the year of desktop Linux? HOW many years have you been saying this and yet here we are again with the Microsoft and Apple conspiracy theories.

It looks like you have way too much time at the fry station - I'll put a word in with you McManager and have him add floor sweeping and taking the trash out to your job...
@Pete "athynz" Athens

If you can't understand how great Ubuntu and Fedora (and other Linux based distributions) are now (and have been for at least two last years) then it only shows how ignorant you are in IT.

But in this case you should not be commenting on an IT blog because clearly you have no idea about computers.
@The Linux Geek Linux may be the platform of the future, who knows? We must all live in the present though. I doubt Apple or Microsoft care very much about Linux. Certainly not on the desktop.
2 Votes
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Wrong
Michael Alan Goff 23rd Feb
Ballmer is on record as saying that Linux is a bigger threat to Microsoft than Apple.
@The Linux Geek Curiously, as the currently used OS with the oldest architecture, Linux is also the OS of the past. In some ways, sure, it is the OS of the future -- the future of portable and embedded devices, anyway. And servers.

But unfortunately, it's never the desktop of "now", and never will be ... at least as long as people care about desktops. There's no market for commercial software on Linux, and in fact, much of the market works against commercial software on Linux.

Hey, it's a great environment if you're a software developer... I have two Linux VMs running on my desktop now. But it's totally unfit for many other markets, and that's nothing to do with the OS, everything to do with the fact that FOSS only rarely produces professional quality software. Linux is one example. But so many other projects are barely entry-level, or too buggy to be useful. Or simply non-existent. I can't professional electronics CAD on Linux. Or audio/video content creation. Sure, there are programs, but nothing within 10 years of being a current professional-level tool. And no one will develop such programs for Linux, because they know that users refuse professional software.

Meanwhile, it's mobile anyway that's the real future. The fact that someone noticed last week that Apple shipped more iOS devices in 4Q11 than they shipped MacOS computers... ever, should be fairly telling. These are not the whole answer to a professional's computing needs, but they will increasingly be the whole answer for regular consumers. One reason why Apple, Microsoft, and many Linux people have the silly idea of moving portable ideas to the desktop.
"But unfortunately, it's never the desktop of "now", and never will be ... at least as long as people care about desktops. There's no market for commercial software on Linux, and in fact, much of the market works against commercial software on Linux. "
The issue is, is that if developers would get off their lazy rears and develop for Linux, the more it'd gain acceptance and use and snowball forward until it becomes as easy to get software as it is on OSX or maybe even Windows. Apple's Mac OS suffered similar woes at first and when given a fair shake at things was able to gain some foothold. Now that's not to say desktop Linux is perfect, but with commercial software being available for it, more people would use it and perhaps gain more developers to add on to the platform to get something stable and a real competitor to Microsoft and Apple OSes on the desktop/laptop front. However even if that never becomes the case, Linux and Unix will still dominate everything else we have and use. You did make valid points as well and I applaud you for not displaying them in a trollish way (even though i'm sure mine seem to be that way)
2 Votes
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Linux is not the oldest
makeMeAnOffer Updated - 24th Feb
@dave
"Curiously, as the currently used OS with the oldest architecture, Linux is also the OS of the past. "

Not true. Linux goes back to the early 1990s, about the same time as NT, which is the architecture Windows uses. OSX, on the other hand, goes back to the early 1970s, as it is based on BSD Unix.

So, out of the three, Mac is the oldest, followed by Linux and about the same time Windows, if we are just talking about the lineage of the operating systems.
0 Votes
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Linux is not the oldest
capmeras 12th Mar
You are right about some things, wrong about others. It is correct that Linux's aversion to professional software, and third party drivers has been a problem.

You are wrong about Linux architecture, its not older than Windows NT, in fact the Linux kernel was started about the same time as NT, which is the core of the Windows OS today. Its not really age however that determines code quality, if anything, older software can be better and more mature, but the quality of the code.

Linux does have good code quality but getting a stable system is a different thing than getting a useable UI and good hardware support, which is where Linux stumbles.

Mac OS X and iOS are in fact based on a system that is older than Linux by far, the earliest development that composes parts of iOS were made in 1970 since it is a bloodline descendant of AT&T Unix through BSD, though the AT&T code has been completely replaced, as well. But these things evolve and develop over time.

As for mobile. I think your wrong. There is growth in smart mobile devices because its an unpenetrated market with still room for growth. Eventually mobile device growth will level out and stabilize and demand will be similar to desktop growth. These are business cycles and eventually the cycle for mobile will hit a low point. Desktop and mobile sales will eventually come to some sort of parity as most people will have both. The really big thing that people want is to be able to have desktop and mobile interact. The idea that people are going to walk into a store and trade in their 20" desktop screen for a 2" screen and a chiclet keyboard and much slower hardware is absurd. The desktop is a great value as well, and this can be further exploited, as the same system can be used for DVR, Gaming, household finance, taxes, and so on. No one wants to write a letter make a resume, do their finances, or play a game on a 4" screen. WHen one realises that one can with one device do everything that DVR, Wii does, plus office applications and games in one box, rather than having to buy seperate boxes, its a much better value. In many ways, special purpose boxes such as Wii and so on are wasteful and a bad value, a general purpose computer can be a much better value as you can do everything with one box rather than 5.

There will be a lot of need and excitement about making mobile work with the desktop and also the desktop to also work with the TV so movies stored on desktop can be played to a TV at a click of the button . But also people want privacy for other computing tasks so a dedicated monitor is also important, few want to type a private letter or look at naughty websites on the living room TV.
Fedora will never include a default browser that isn't 100% Free Software. And AFAIK, Google Chrome is not. After all, how can it be if it includes Adobe's proprietary Flash code? So I think Linux users will always have Firefox as an option.
@Zogg

Users can change their default. And Linux users tend to know how to do that.
0 Votes
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Users can, but Fedora won't.
Zogg Updated - 23rd Feb
@Michael Kelly
My point is that Fedora will not ship with Chrome as the default browser. So if users want Chrome then "yes", they are going to have to install it themselves.
1 Vote
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@Zogg wrote:
Fedora will never include a default browser that isn't 100% Free Software.

Nor will Debian. Google's Chrome browser also includes a proprietary PDF reader plug-in. It is possible that some distros may choose to make the open-source Chromium browser the default. The chromium-browser package for Debian is currently in the main repository.
With iOS not supporting Flash, it is only a matter of time until the number of web sites that require Flash gets near zero.

Or iOS becomes irrelevant.
0 Votes
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Faulty logic - what actually is happening is...
TheWerewolf Updated - 23rd Feb
@raleighthings That sites which rely on Flash are making iOS and Android apps for their sites. That way they can keep providing a good experience for the majority of computer users (ie: Windows and MacOS) without changing much - and providing a special experience for iOS (and Android) users.
0 Votes
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I believe you are wrong there, look how long it is taking to get the enterprise away from ie 6, the company I work for only has 20% of their internal websites supporting ie7, while the others refuse to load and only give you a display telling you that you must use ie6 or Firefox 2.0 or Netscape v3 yo view them (sometimes ie compatibility works, but only to get to the website, when you try to do anything in it, major fail. Same if you try to use chrome) and I work for a fortune 100 company. I also contact put to another fortune 100 company, and they have ie6 on 80% of their windows servers and only just started upgrading their desktops and laptops up ie 7 in August, then changed to ie8 in December.
Both companies have over 95,000 full time employees and more than 15,000 contractors working for them.

Sorry for typos, had to Swype left handed with a sleeping baby in my lap.
0 Votes
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happy
I would have thought most Linux users would use Chromium instead of Google Chrome, to avoid being tracked to death. Chromium doesn't come with an in-built flash player. What will happen to Chromium and flash I wonder?
1 Vote
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No big deal is right......
linux for me 23rd Feb
There are other open source players that can play flash videos without any issues, and without all the security headaches that flash player has.

No disadvantage in losing Flash Player, and a big advantage in losing a buggy and insecure application.
3 Votes
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1.56%? I don't think so...
Kyoraki 23rd Feb
You've got to be kidding me if you think Linux only has 1.56% of the market. Mirosoft's estimate from 2008 was at 8%, and even then they said that was a conservative estimate. the 1-2% your getting is from machines that have Linux preinstalled, and doesn't count the number of dual booting systems, or those that came pre-installed with Windows, but were wiped for Linux.
This is a disastrous move for adobe, especially if Shuttleworth ever reaches his goal of 400 million users by 2014. Another nail in the coffin for Adobe and their doomed platform.
@Kyoraki
Could you be misleaded by including server market numbers?
Again, like AKH said, you can find statistics that will give Linux a better market share but, usually, the metric is around 1.5%.
@Kyoraki Do you have any sort of links supporting your claims? I ask because everything I've seen put Desktop Linux's share at 1.5 to 2%.
@Pete "athynz" Athens

You mean apart from Ballmers rough 8% estimate from 2008 he already gave? you can't measure the usage of a free OS because one download can be used on as many PC's as you want.

Windows on the other hand will always get over counted because a laptop brought for the sole purpose of running Linux will get counted as a windows sale.
@Pete "athynz" Athens Last I heard was about 1.2%. The mobile market has ate into share. Android doesn't really count towards desktop Linux either.
@Kyoraki Who told you Linux couldn't lose market share? I don't think Linux use numbers from the time Windows Vista was at its height have any relevance today. A lot that had abandoned Windows then went back, when in their estimation things improved somewhat. I would have to tend to agree with them too. XP wasn't nearly the end of the world Vista was, and 7 improved on that.

Total Linux desktop use hovers somewhere under 2%. Always has. Websites track OS usage so that is how the information is compiled. No, I don't want to hear that all Linux users spoof their OS browser ID either. I don't.
0 Votes
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Nonsense
marc van hoff 16th Mar
I have spoofed my ID on most of my browsers. I have no idea why a site should know everything about where I live and what I use. Oh and don't blather on about Kyoraki not being able to support his/her claims, since you haven't presented any evidence yourself. In fact, Kyoraki did support his/her claim with evidence, and a quick Google/DDG/Yahoo! would have given you a bunch of reliable sources to support Kyoraki's claim.
0 Votes
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yeah, that 1.56% is based . . .
sir_cheats_alot@... 24th Feb
on SALES, not actual usage/downloads/installs(you know the USEFUL information).
0 Votes
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Nail on the Head
marc van hoff 16th Mar
You got that right. The estimate for the US is 5-6% for Linux, and this is greater in the world as whole. Kudos for pointing that out, the above article is somewhat biased and based on an inaccurate statistic. Author please correct your article to mention this important tidbit of information.
2 Votes
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but it is a big deal for Firefox to lose 1%? That doesn't make sense.

I don't think this is a big deal for anybody. It's merely something that has to be taken into account. Adobe could do exactly the same thing for the Mac and even Windows platforms and I'd say exactly the same thing because Adobe is phasing out Flash in favor of HTML. Really the only resources Adobe should put into Flash at this point are security fixes.
I hope in 5 years, flash will be history, at-least everything flash can do now, should be done natively by the browser. Good riddance
This is a huge deal. More and more companies are abandoning linux and with good reason, the platform is dead. Its only a matter of time before we hear about the linux foundation disbanding due to lack of product to support. For me that day can't come soon enough.

Your article contradicts itself. You say its not a big deal, linux only has 1% of share, its dead and all that, then you say its bad for Mozilla. With linux having such a small percentage and dropping quickly, this really doesn't affect Mozilla at all. They aren't going to miss that 1% when their users are on other platforms. Mozilla still has plenty going for it without linux. Read it again, Mozilla does not need linux, especially not at their 1% share.
@Loverock Davidson- Loverock, I need your help. I need to add a driver to my system and I can't find my 8" floppy drive. Since all Windows drivers come on 8" floppies, what am I going to do.
@saneu@...

I wish I could help you, but all of my Windows drivers are on cassette tape!
-2 Votes
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@saneu@
none none 23rd Feb
Just cram them in the open telnet port.
@Loverock Davidson- I've seen some pathetic trolls but your sick and twisted fantasies are the saddest indeed. Trying to use the greatest open source victory of all time against another open source project is really a new low for you though.

Read it again, Mozilla is Netscape's Open Source triumph over Microsoft!
0 Votes
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Good Flag, Troll
marc van hoff 16th Mar
Since you obviously can't present any of your information in a logical and structured manner, I will brand you as yet another Micro$uck fanboy trolling on this site.
I hope the Mods get rid of your nonsense.

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