Hardware 2.0

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

You will decide whether Windows 8 is a success or a failure

By Adrian Kingsley-Hughes | February 8, 2012, 8:24am PST

Summary: What do YOU think of Windows 8 so far? Take our poll.

There’s a lot of debate lately as to whether Windows 8 will be a flop, a success, or just some in between. Here at ZDNet we’ve got a lot of thoughts on the matter. Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols offered up five reasons why he thinks Windows 8 will be dead on arrival. I countered with my own set of five reasons why I think Windows 8 won’t be a flop, and then David Gewirtz joined in, telling us why Windows 8 matters for real work, and so will Windows 9.

As you can see, opinions are divided, even by pundits. But the success and failure of Windows 8 won’t be decided by pundits, it’ll be decided by people like you, folks who buy PCs at home, for a small office, or for a large enterprise. That’s how the success or failure of Windows 8 will be decided; not on websites, blogs, or forums.

I also think that it’s rather premature to be declaring Windows 8 dead based on how little information we have about the platform. We have the developer preview (which is now quite long in the tooth) and we have a bunch of blog posts from the Building Windows 8 blog. Between those two resources there’s a lot of information to digest, but we still don’t have a beta or consumer preview or whatever Microsoft will call what it releases next.

From what I’ve seen so far I see two key, maybe even killer, features present in the new operating system:

PC refresh and reset, which will appeal to home users
ReFS file system in Windows 8 Server, which will appeal to enterprise users

I also see risks, specifically relating to tablet pricing, system requirements, the possible increased cost of Windows 8 systems, Microsoft making big UI changes like dumping the Start button, and the heavy focus (not to mention ambiguity) Microsoft is placing on Metro UI and touch.

So, I’m interested in hearing from you. Based on what you’ve seen of Windows 8 so far, what do you think of Microsoft’s next operating system? Do you think that it will be a success or a failure?

Poll

Will Windows 8 be a success or a failure?

If you could expand on your thoughts in the TalkBack section, I’d love to read what you think of Microsoft’s new OS and how you see things panning out.

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Topics

Microsoft Windows 8, Microsoft Windows, Operating Systems, Software, Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes is an internationally published technology author who has devoted over a decade to helping users get the most from technology.

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The same disease as government...

mikifinaz1@... 24th Feb

Everyone is scrambling to invent the "killer" GUI.

Well, I have seen this thinking with the government. For at least the last 50 years and probably before, the government has been trying to invent the "universal" infantry rifle.

NOT GOING TO HAPPEN! Not going to happen in either case...

Touchpads good for handheld devices not so much for desktop computers, large block buttons same thing. And this is what will kill Win 8, it will fit everyone and fit no one at the same time. Most of these experiments go down in flames.

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It is too early

Michael Alan Goff 8th Feb

The development preview was decent enough, but not ready for prime time. They have some work to do. We will be able to judge better by the end of the month.

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RE: You will decide whether Windows 8 is a success or a failure

ccrockett@... 8th Feb

Once the consumer preview is available the picture will be a little clearer, but I am leaning toward success.

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RE: You will decide whether Windows 8 is a success or a failure

mrlinux 8th Feb

Please define a success ?? Even if it is a piece of crap, it will be the only OS available on NON Apple Computers, so it is going to sell, and if it really is a piece of crap then Microsoft will sell a downgrade license to Win 7 and make more money.

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I totally agree with you

toddybottom_z 8th Feb

@mrlinux
"Please define a success ??"

It is so predictable that the people who predicted that their favorite products are going to be successful and the people who predicted that their most hated products are going to be failures, are the ones who after the fact get to make up the definition of the criteria that guarantee they were correct with their predictions.

Also interesting to see how the same person will come up with wildly different definitions of success based on the company behind the product. The Apple fanboi thinks Apple TV is a success because it broke even and shipped a million units last quarter. That same fanboi will think Vista was a failure however because it made billions and shipped hundreds of millions of units.

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RE: You will decide whether Windows 8 is a success or a failure

J Hartsock 8th Feb

@toddybottom_z

Exactly! Windows 8 is a new operating system for a new world!

I have friends who see no good reason to upgrade from XP and, for themselves, they are not wrong. I VMd the 7 beta and loved it and bought 7 as soon as it was available. Its a fabulous OS that had a few quirks that Microsoft is continuing to fix.

I VMd Windows 8 and found it to be nice but very different. The Metro UI is the first step in Microsoft's creating a new OS for a 'new mobile world' full of tablets, netbooks, smartphones, etc. If they hadn't made the change then all the MS 'haters' would be criticizing them for not keeping up with the changes in platforms.

People are resistant to any change - see XP hanger-ons - and 8 will be no different than Vista or 7 in that some will hang on to the old for some period of time before they upgrade their hardware and the accompanying OS.

James@Santa Barbara

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J Hartsock. You are dead on. Thank you sir!

xuniL_z 8th Feb

No matter what MS does, their frantic haters will spin it as a failure. As you said, if win8 was just enhancements to win7 with same UI, they would have laughed how MS was out of touch with today's technology.
If you are a Windows user or a fan of the product, you can take comfort in knowing that much attention is only given to the super stars, by the Wannabes who are only showing their envious nature.
It's really kind of funny, yet a little sad too.

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I think you are being naive, Adrian

honeymonster Updated - 8th Feb

Windows Vista was sunk primarily because of pundits' frontal attacks and FUD campaigns. MS allowed that to happen because they didn't have all the ducks in row for launch (3rd party driver vendors - especially nVidia - offered sub-standard and crash-happy drivers). But it the bad rep created by pundits stuck.

That is exactly what SJVN tried to do again with Windows 7. And what a lot of MS detractors try again and again. First it was "Stick to XP". Now it becomes "stick to Windows 7". It is a transparent attempt at preempting a success.

And your fellow blogger SJVN is the most transparent of the bunch.

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RE: You will decide whether Windows 8 is a success or a failure

benched42 8th Feb

@honeymonster

Uhh, no. Lack of quality drivers is what sunk Vista before it went out the gate. Microsoft didn't release it to OEMs and hardware companies to get drivers for it in time for the public release.

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RE: You will decide whether Windows 8 is a success or a failure

Aerowind 8th Feb

@benched42 You realize that's exactly what he said, right?

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You're kidding right?

Joe_Raby 8th Feb

@benched42

The development time for drivers in Windows Vista was still longer than it was for Windows 7.

Many companies just didn't want to update their drivers though, and instead thought that the long development time (they did reset it in 2004 due to failures in implementing Longhorn features) was enough excuse to market new hardware products for Windows Vista support instead. Remember that Windows pushes a lot of the computer hardware upgrade cycle.

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You forgot to mention the magical Vista capable fiasco

ego.sum.stig@... 8th Feb

However, fairly succinct, somewhat useful.

You also forgot one other thing, the humanoid in the street would take more notice of commentary on a football team's prospects than anything a tech pundit would ever say, good, bad or whatever.

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RE: You will decide whether Windows 8 is a success or a failure

powellwi 8th Feb

@honeymonster

I would not worry to much about SJVN's predictions, his track record demonstrates a complete lack of IT knowledge.

His bias against MS makes me think he applied for a job at Microsoft and was rejected.

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Vista failed to be successful because

tony@... 23rd Feb

@honeymonster .. it introduced a new driver model, and it was a long time before there were many drivers around. Thus hardware support was patchy. Windows 8, I believe, uses the existing Windows 7 driver model, so will come onto a market with good hardware support.

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I believe that Win8 will be a failure on the Desktop

linux for me 8th Feb

What seems to be missing in all the opinions, is the costs involved. XP is still out there at just under 50%. As these systems fail due to age of hardware, they are being replaced with Win7 systems. All those customized apps for those systems have probably have been rewritten for Win7 and IE8 or 9.

Microsoft has stated that any hardware that runs Win8 must be Win8 certified. All these organizations that have Win7 already installed, will not dump all this hardware and replace these systems with new hardware.

All the current applications will need to be rewritten for Metro interface and be repurchased for these new Win8 systems. The jury is still out on whether the new security boot feature will even allow any other legacy Windows applications or OS to run, except for Win8. Add the costs for labor to replace those systems, rewrite again all the customized apps so that they run on Win8, training, etc...and those costs will be just too prohibited to justify Win8 on any desktop.

As stated in articles from other trade magazines, businesses have be quoted that Win8 for the desktop, is DOA for the reasons listed above. Many of them still have XP systems and are just getting those replaced.

No, I don't think it looks very promising for Win8, especially on the desktop. Certified hardware and the Metro UI will be the big failures for Win8.

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Are you sure about this?

toddybottom_z 8th Feb

@linux for me
"Microsoft has stated that any hardware that runs Win8 must be Win8 certified."

I've heard that tablets will have to fulfill certain hardware requirements but nothing about desktops. I've also never heard that Windows 8 will not run on uncertified systems. I've only heard that if you want your system be marketed as Windows 8 certified, it must have certain hardware like secure boot enabled. However, nothing stops anyone from selling uncertified systems or installing Windows 8 on uncertified systems. Companies will not have to get rid of all their hardware if they want to move to Windows 8, at least from what I've read.

If you have links to what you are talking about, please share them. I suspect they don't say what you are really hoping they say.

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RE: You will decide whether Windows 8 is a success or a failure

JoeFoerster 8th Feb

@toddybottom_z Large enterprizes care a lot about vendor support. If MS says Win 8 needs certified hardware and we don't listen, we don't get support. Our on-site MS rep will shrug and tell us he can't help. So no, we won't do something that is not explicitly supported.

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RE: You will decide whether Windows 8 is a success or a failure

toddybottom_z 8th Feb

"If MS says Win 8 needs certified hardware and we don't listen, we don't get support."

Do you have any links to support your statement that Microsoft is going to, for the first time ever, withdraw Windows support from an enterprise if they run a version of Windows on hardware that was not certified for that version of Windows when it was sold? That would be an amazing piece of information because this would signify a huge shift in Microsoft's support policy. If this is true, we need to know about it so we can make a stink and get Microsoft to cancel this proposed change in its support policy. Microsoft currently offers full support for Windows 7 even if it is running on hardware that does not have a Windows 7 Certified sticker on it so you'll pardon me if I don't simply take your word for it that this change in their support policy is coming. Do you have any links to support your claim?

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RE: You will decide whether Windows 8 is a success or a failure

sjaak327 8th Feb

@toddybottom_z

Support will be given by Microsoft IF a pc meets the minumum requirements, these are exactly the same as for Windows 7. Linux for me seems to be mixing things up here. He also does on the application front, any native app that now runs on Windows 7 will also run on Windows 8.
How any application running on win32 al of a sudden needs to be rewritten voor metro is complete nonsense, win32 is still present in Windows 8, and even on arm, all that is needed is a recompile to arm, as it seems the desktop and win32 might be present on arm devices as well.

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RE: You will decide whether Windows 8 is a success or a failure

itguy10 8th Feb

@linux for me

"What seems to be missing in all the opinions, is the costs involved. XP is still out there at just under 50%. As these systems fail due to age of hardware, they are being replaced with Win7 systems."

A growing # of those systems are being replaced with Macs. Witness Apple's increasing marketshare for OS X and the slow declining of Windows machines.

Not a huge deal right now but inertia may keep the trend going - it's been going on for years now already.

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RE: You will decide whether Windows 8 is a success or a failure

sjaak327 8th Feb

@itguy10

At the rate this increase has been going on in say the last 5 years, we might even see osx being bigger then Windows somewhere in the next century ! Allthough I assume the chance of that ever happening is next to zero, anyone who supports comouting in the enterprise knows why, the absence of tools to centrally manage these machines. The slowly and marginally increasing marketshare for osx (highly off topic by the way, this is about Windows 8) doesn't come from the enterprise.

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RE: You will decide whether Windows 8 is a success or a failure

itguy10 8th Feb

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RE: You will decide whether Windows 8 is a success or a failure

OrlandoHatch 8th Feb

@linux for me
"The jury is still out on whether the new security boot feature will even allow any other legacy Windows applications or OS to run, except for Win8. "
How would the security boot feature keep a legacy Windows application from running? I understood that the security boot was to limit what could execute at boot time, not after.
Thanks in advance.

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RE: You will decide whether Windows 8 is a success or a failure

Gary554 Updated - 8th Feb

@linux for me

Anything I've ever read on the subject states that anything running on Win 7 will run on Win 8 and any hardware currently running Win 7 will run Win 8. New hardware purchases may require Win 8 certification but that's no different than today where hardware manufacturers require Win 7 cert...

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Not quite true.

spdragoo@... 8th Feb

@linux for me

Just as with "XP Certified", "Vista Certified", and "Windows 7 Certified", Microsoft will have rules for OEM vendors to meet before they can put a sticker on saying, "Windows 8 Certified". But just because your hardware doesn't have "Windows 8 Certified" on it doesn't mean you can't run it. Just as the logo saying "XP Certified" doesn't mean it will run even so-so (case in point was my dad's prior computer: had a Celeron processor, but only came with 128MB of RAM, & the motherboard would only expand to 256MB. Talk about "slooooow").

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You're just wrong

easson 8th Feb

@linux for me
No, Microsoft has NOT stated that any hardware that runs Win8 must be Win8 certified. What it has said is that for an OEM to put a sticker on their PCs saying they they are Windows 8 compatible, they have to be certified. But that was similarly the case for Windows 2000, XP, Vista, and 7.

Windows 8 has been demonstrated to run on a wide variety of hardware, including many that currently run Windows XP.

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RE: You will decide whether Windows 8 is a success or a failure

ccrockett@... 8th Feb

@linux for me Nice FUD, Microsoft has stated that ANY current system that runs Win7 can run Win8. The certification process is only for new computers that want to be sold with a Win8 sticker. STOP SPREADING LIES.

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RE: You will decide whether Windows 8 is a success or a failure

JoeFoerster Updated - 8th Feb

@linux for me Spot on. The kicker for me is the item "ReFS file system in Windows 8 Server, which will appeal to enterprise users". maybe some enterprise users, but not large ones. We are still on Server 2003 on our Windows-based servers. The majority of our servers are non-Windows. Changing a server OS is more painful than changing the desktop OS in a large organization because tens-of-thousands of user's productivity is tied to it. One mistake, one outage, wipes out tons of man-hours in a single step. I don't manage servers but if I did, I wouldn't be putting a brand-new shiney OS on one.

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RE: You will decide whether Windows 8 is a success or a failure

TsarNikky 8th Feb

@linux for me
Not only not very promising for desktop; but also for laptops user with serious keyboarding requirements. Tap, tap, tap... won't cut it.

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FAIL

itguy10 8th Feb

I'll be avoiding Windows like the Plague it is.

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RE: You will decide whether Windows 8 is a success or a failure

Michael Alan Goff 8th Feb

@itguy10

If it doesn't work for you, it'd be silly to use it.

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RE: You will decide whether Windows 8 is a success or a failure

omdguy 8th Feb

@itguy10

Much like many of us avoid your stupid posts since it is patently obvious you have nothing to do with IT, unless you call operating the fry machine at Jack in the Box IT...

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Expectation is everything

keebaud@... 8th Feb

The success or failure of Windows 8 will depend on what people expect of it. Let's hope Microsoft know what they want it to be. If they are at all vague as to what it's supposed to be then it will fail.
If it's supposed to be snappy then it had better work as quickly and smoothly as their phones. If it's supposed to replace the desktop then it had better be able to do everything a desktop can do. If it's supposed to be revolutionary then it had better know how that revolution is supposed to start.
At the moment I'm not sure what Microsoft think Windows 8 is going to be. If Microsoft are going to try and make Windows 8 a singing, tightrope walking, juggling walrus then it isn't going to work.

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RE: You will decide whether Windows 8 is a success or a failure

mheartwood 8th Feb

@keebaud@...
I think You've hit upon what is the key to why Windows ME, and Windows Vista failed. Microsoft felt they needed a new o/s to market, so they could make more money, but they really didn't know what it was suppose to be. Without that definition, they produced crap no one needed and no one wanted.

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RE: You will decide whether Windows 8 is a success or a failure

MG537 8th Feb

Many Enterprises are just now starting to move over to Windows 7 or have moved in the not so distant past. For then Windows 8 may not be an option.
New computers available to the public will probably come bundled with Windows 8 so yeah, that will be a success.
But MS's real goal here is mobile. That all depends on what will make Windows 8 different than the other big two.

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RE: You will decide whether Windows 8 is a success or a failure

chris@... 8th Feb

As a desktop OS, it will do OK, but in a post - desktop PC world, it really will be irrelevant.

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RE: You will decide whether Windows 8 is a success or a failure

ccrockett@... 8th Feb

@chris@... A post-desktop PC world?? We will be on Windows 12 (atleast) before (or if) that happens. AND before any of you Apple people start waving your iPads and iPhones around... those devices will not work without a desktop PC, you can't even boot up a new iPad without attaching it to a REAL computer first.

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RE: You will decide whether Windows 8 is a success or a failure

chris@... 8th Feb

@ccrockett@... I think it is already happening, as evidenced by sales figures. While Windows will undoubtedly be around, it is loosing dominance and relevance quickly.

I could be wrong though- wouldn't be the first time.

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RE: You will decide whether Windows 8 is a success or a failure

sjaak327 8th Feb

@chris@...

As witnessed by the sale of 525 million licenses of Windows 7 in about 24 months, that's about 20 million each month. Wake me up if and when this post pc area actually is around, and I can perform the same workflow on a tablet for the same price as a 350 usd laptop.

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RE: You will decide whether Windows 8 is a success or a failure

Loverock Davidson- 8th Feb

Huge success! Its already got the momentum going for it because users are so curious about it. Its going to be on both desktops and mobile devices so its unified and will be everywhere. Its a new shift in computing and that is exactly why its going to succeed.

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Question

ego.sum.stig@... 8th Feb

Are you sure you're not Bott in disguise, or a faithful flunky of his?

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RE: You will decide whether Windows 8 is a success or a failure

benched42 8th Feb

It will be a big FAIL for the desktops and servers. However, on tablets it will succeed to a point; after all, Microsoft has to break into that market. It may be able to break into the tablet market, but it will take time. Besides, it's kind of silly to expect one OS and interface to span tablet to server, and that's where Microsoft is going.

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RE: You will decide whether Windows 8 is a success or a failure

ccrockett@... 8th Feb

@benched42 And who would have though a phone OS would work on a tablet, but it did.

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RE: You will decide whether Windows 8 is a success or a failure

sjaak327 8th Feb

@benched42

Did you bother to read up on what the server version is going to bring to the table ? Too much to mention here, the metro interface being on servers isn't in any way shape or form going to deter companies from rolling out the server version, it is the vast improvements in storage, smb and hyper-v that will certainly be a big reason to embrace the server version with great speed.

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RE: You will decide whether Windows 8 is a success or a failure

regsrini 8th Feb

Whether people think it is a flop or not depends on whether they want it or not The better question to ask here is whether you want to buy Windows 8 or not.
My answer is:
I want to buy Windows 8 and I want it to be a hit and I feel it should be fairly successful, maybe a bit less than Windows 7, but still.

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Success

johnfenjackson@... Updated - 8th Feb

Developer Preview working OK here.

1. An Ivy Bridge CPU 20% faster.
2. Add an SSD .
3. Two second secure boot.
4. All legacy applications working in the Desktop mode.
5. A faster all-round machine due to efficiency gains for ARM porting.
6. A funny old, sorry new, METRO switch to play about with some new toys.
7. USB 3.0 ports into which one can plug all one's old peripherals.
8 Spaces to protect your data.

Efficiency, power and compatibility with a bit of extra security: everything VISTA wasn't (except new).
What's not to like?
Potentially awesome.

Even if M$ screw up RTM, they'll fix it by SP1, or even SP2.

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Too early to tell ...

johnfenjackson@... 8th Feb

... about METRO and ARM port.

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RE: You will decide whether Windows 8 is a success or a failure

lepoete73 8th Feb

@johnfenjackson@...

What's not to like? The missing Start menu to start, I'm not interested in a full screen thing filled with boxes that represent applications. I don't want to see Metro UI unless I want to run a Metro app.

If you give me the Start menu back, I'll be a happy camper, I actually like the change in Windows Explorer with the ribbon and the new conflict resolution dialog for file copy/move.

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RE: You will decide whether Windows 8 is a success or a failure

rshol 8th Feb

Do Want:
Under the hood improvements it brings.

Don't Want:
1) Metro Interface on Laptop/Desktop and deprecation of multiple overlapping windows interface.
2) WinRT lock-in to app store.

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Already saving up to get a W8 ultrabook convertible or if I cant find one I

Johnny Vegas 8th Feb

like then both a W8 ultrabook and a W8 tablet. This is apples nightmare. Cleary superior to ipad in every way. Its like WP7 but without the carriers in place to squash it.