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How the Web OS has begun to reshape IT and business

By | September 6, 2009, 9:01am PDT

These days in the halls of IT departments around the world there is a growing realization that the next wave of outsourcing, things like cloud computing and crowdsourcing, are going to require responses that will forever change the trajectory of their current relationship with the business, or finally cause them to be relegated as a primarily administrative, keep-the-lights-on function.

IT is going to either have to get more strategic to the business or get out of the way. Businesses too must grow a Web DNA. The proximal cause of this seems to be the growing domination of the global network that surrounds all businesses today: The Web. If you’ve read my writings here since 2006 you largely know what’s happening: Today’s highly evolved Web has grown far beyond its original roots in content distribution and communication. It has become a fully fledged platform for media (TV, movies, music, newspapers, gaming, etc. have been strongly disrupted by the Web and now largely reside there) as well as more strategic pursuits. Probably most significantly is computing in all its many forms. This ranges from low-level services such as raw compute power and storage to social computing, semantics, and collective intelligence.

But the advent of a Web OS is certainly not just an IT story. It’s also — and really mostly — a business story. Those who are trying to track the so-called “big shifts” in the 21st century, thinkers like John Hagel, are attempting to pin down the specific changes taking place in the world today. John recently noted that “we are moving from a relatively stable business environment to one characterized by rapid rates of change with ever more disruptions generating increasing uncertainty and unpredictability“. In this way, routinely transforming instability and rapid change from a threat (which it is to most businesses today) into opportunity is a core skill that organizations increasingly must be able to cultivate.

That much of the pace of change today is driven by the modern world’s pervasive and instant global flows of knowledge is largely due to influence of the Web and its billions of two-way touchpoints with nearly a third of the world’s population (including practically all of the developed world). In addition to ultra fast feedback loops that drive real-time action/response scenarios in the marketplace, the Web has also become an incredibly efficient, inexpensive, and easy-to-use delivery system for just about anything that an interface can be wrapped around.

This has created a new form of leverage in terms of the ability to change and adapt by tapping rapidly and deeply into on-demand resources (be they computing, data, or even people and ideas) in virtually real-time. A recent article in the Wall Street Journal noted that because of modern technology, particularly the Web, business “initiatives that used to take months and megabucks to coordinate and launch can often be started in seconds for cents.” Clearly, this is a brave new world, even if it’s one that’s still happening more on the edge than in the core of businesses today.

Web OS 2009: A Self-Organizing, Organic Cloud Computing Platform Nears the Tipping Point
WOA = Web-Oriented Architecture
CC/SRR = Creative Commons/Some Rights Reserved
AOP = Architectures of Participation

It’s a world where scarcity practically doesn’t exist and access to abundance is virtually free. It’s also true that the business models of the Web OS are only emerging as well. While monetization is prevalent for those consuming or participating in the Web OS, there is also a real and ongoing concern that it’s also the modern version of sharecropping. That traditional management approaches often don’t understand the nuances of these issues and aren’t designed to take advantage of this modern economic landscape, much less compete with a growing number of businesses that do, is a whole side story I’ll explore when I’m able. But it’s one in which the Web OS is increasingly forcing a serious reevaluation of modern business practices as well as the very notion of how an opportunity is defined, identified, and targeted.

What is the Web OS?

While there are multiple ways of looking at the Web as an operating system, from cloud environments that mimic a desktop operating system to sets of services packaged together and bundled as an individual product to companies, the largest — and the most significant — is the idea of an overarching and emergent Internet operating system. The data, services, and even communities of the Web are now programmatic and can be incorporated and remixed into any other business or product at will. The concept of a Web OS isn’t new. But its arrival on the scene in compelling form with serious impact to the enterprise is.

Over the last few years, as open APIs, social networking platforms, cloud computing, open identity services, sensor-driven databases (such as with GPS and OpenStreetMap), or even people (example: Amazon’s Mechanical Turk) have created open ecosystems in which anyone can participate, including business, both to contribute and to consume. The Web has become the ultimate outsourcing platform and one that is incredibly agile too, combined with economies of scale that are very hard to match. There are challenges too: Unpredictabilities and risks exist that must be dealt with both routinely and successfully.

But to perform well in this changing business environment organizations have to move beyond the classical conceptions of partnerships, OEM relationships, and strategic but traditionally static vendor portfolios as they look to either plug into the services in the Web OS or decide to offer up their own businesses as a service within it. Either are highly strategic choices and this is a world where you can connect supply chains or enter in a online partnership as quickly as clicking on the Agree button of an online Terms of Service and adding some (hopefully secure) code to your IT systems.

The Web OS has become a fast moving river of business opportunity as the number of credible services with it has mushroomed in the last 18 months. Having the processes in place to evaluate and exploit this environment to connect with and tap into compute power, infrastructure, software, workers, knowledge, and innovation in time frames that are useful will be one of the signature challenges for traditional businesses seeking to harness what is turning into the richest accessible set of business inputs in history.

While cloud computing is right now probably the strongest trend that’s driving attention and awareness of the Web as a self-organizing platform for strategic services (SaaS is right behind it), many of the other elements of the Web OS have not escaped the attention of forward looking business thinkers looking at the future of their organizations and seeking to improve.

Five Web OS Trends for 2009

Here are some of the ways that the emerging Web OS is reshaping IT and business this year:

  1. Innovation is one of the easiest and least risky areas that can be tapped by most organizations. The ongoing story of market leader Netflix and it’s now-famous Netflix Prize contest is a model of how an organization can open up and tap into ideas without interfering with production processes directly, even though the final outcome will drive operational improvements. While Dell, Innocentive, Crowdspring, and others have been doing this for years, only now are we seeing critical mass in more direct and mature examples of Web OS-driven inputs directly driving concrete, specific, and competitive outcomes.
  2. Vertical and horizontal crowdsourcing models are increasingly viable as 3rd party intermediaries grow in size and experience. Vertical crowdsourcing is when the domain is specialized and requires skill or industry experience. Horizontal crowdsourcing is when the work can be done by almost anyone. The former is more difficult to achieve scale with than the latter. Whichever is required, these days organizations can either choose to do crowdsourcing directly or they can partner with online services in the Web OS such as Mechanical Turk, Innocentive or you can use platforms such as IdeaScale or Kluster and do it yourself.
  3. To get ready to participate in the Web OS, enterprises will have to re-examine how they organize, share, and open data. I discussed this subject recently at length and while it’s one that enterprise architects and SOA practitioners should be focusing on, it’s also one that business strategists should be fluent with in order to understand how to make their companies digital natives.
  4. Plugging into open supply chains dynamically means a new view of operations. Choice in IT and business is becoming a commodity that means the operations, while still about ensuring continuity and determinism in business processes, also means that incorporating alternative suppliers, sudden and rapid fluctuations in process capacity and speed, and rapid introduction of new modes of operation will be the norm. Open standards will help drive this forward. As the cloud computing environment begins to create standards that actually meet business needs, expect that pluggable supply chains will become routine and not the exception it still is today.
  5. SaaS is the slippery slope for Web OS adoption. More and more the large organizations I speak with tell me that rogue IT in the form of on-demand Web applications is becoming a serious challenge (or again, an opportunity, depending on how you look at it). For many — perhaps most — organizations how they’ll respond to the viral, on-demand software of the Web as one of their first major strategic couplings with the Web OS will define their ability to adapt to this future. Many of the lessons learned and policies developed should be crafted to able to subsequently deal successfully with the full unfolding scope and implication of the Web OS. Examples of this includes outsourcing computing and data center capabilities as well as safely incorporating vital business inputs from often anonymous cloud workers.

There is of course a lot more to this story. But it’s clear that IT is going to either have to get more strategic to the business or get out of the way. Businesses too have to learn how to grow a workable digital “DNA” since many of these strategies just don’t make sense to business leaders or managers that don’t understand modern digital platforms, which are often anathema to the brick and mortar view that many executives still have today. Finally, I would just observe that the WebOS, as broad as it has become today, is still in its infancy.

That the world’s largest and most vibrant ecosystem is literally millions of times the size of the average enterprise today should tell the story; enormous leverage is to be had if we can only change our thinking. Significant challenges also exist as we consider what it means to be a business isolated, or perhaps worse, inappropriately connected, to this dynamic global resource. But make no mistake, Web OS topics should be on the radar of anyone tracking the latest areas in strategic business and IT.

What challenges are you facing as you align your business with the modern Web today? Please make your comments in Talkback below.

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Dion Hinchcliffe is an expert in information technology, business strategy, and next-generation enterprises.

Disclosure

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Biography

Dion Hinchcliffe

Dion Hinchcliffe is an expert in information technology, business strategy, and next-generation enterprises. He is currently Executive Vice President of Strategy at Dachis Group. A veteran of enterprise IT, Dion has been working for two decades with leading-edge methods to bridge the widening gap between business and technology. He has extensive practical experience with enterprise technologies and he consults, advises, and writes prolifically on social business, IT, and enterprise architecture. Dion still works in the trenches with clients in the Fortune 1000, government, and Internet startup community. He is also a sought-after keynote speaker and is co-author of several books on 2.0 subjects including Web 2.0 Architectures from O'Reilly as well as the upcoming Social Business By Design (due Spring, 2012.)

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RE: How the Web OS has begun to reshape IT and business
AlexSerdar 3rd Jul
@tonymcs@... Oh and btw, I think they are called mashups because of the code not any musical phenomenon - have you even tried to read any of it?
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What a BS conclusion ...
wackoae 6th Sep 2009
Are you serious or just plain delusional???

Using a server is not using cloud computing. In fact, any decent professional company would never even think about anything "cloud" except for basic web hosting.

Let me just give you the top two most logical reasons why real companies stay the hell way from the concept of cloud computing:

#1- SECURITY. Cloud computing is HUGE security hole, even if provided by a "trusted 3rd party". If you think data breaches and industrial espionage are bad right now, just imagine what would happen if companies put their nest eggs in the hands of hands of unknown, uncleared people.

#2- RELIABILITY. All it takes is a single web outage in your are to have almost 100% loss of productivity. And they last only a few minutes .... right?? If you can't login to the web, you are basically unable to do anything. At least with an intranet, only the affected service is off line until fixed and you can continue to work without an active connection to the net.
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re: BS conclusion...
Christian_<>< 6th Sep 2009
That is common-sense that is not allowed in Corporate America, no matter what it will SAVE $$$ and the Bean counters will slash 500 jobs to WASTE $2 million on a INSECURE joke of cloud computing....

#1 - A company needs their own EMAIL Servers.
#2 - A company needs their own DNS Servers.
#3 - A company NEEDS to keep their administration in house (period)!

Outsourcing is the biggest FRAUD of all time.

Plus, it is the BIGGEST SECURITY HOLE of all time.

However that makes sense, and that is not politically correct in the real world.

So go ahead and get ready for another big waste of money with exploits out the wazoo...
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@Christian_ But hey - which community member likes to be managed? What about the splitting between a Community Manager and a Community Ambassador? araba oyunlari
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Wrong...
prof123 8th Sep 2009
Security can be easily solved by encryption. Look at
Blackberry, it is considered secure enough to be used
by the U.S. government and the White House. The data
is encrypted at the source (handset) and remains
encrypted until it is received by another handheld,
where it is decrypted. All data residing on servers is
encrypted with a strong encryption. The same can be
done with any IT app.

As for reliability, most apps can tolerate 99.99%
uptime which translates to about 5 hours of downtime
per year. This can be achieved by cloud computing.
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Graduate of BuzzWord University
runaway1956@... 6th Sep 2009
Buzzword, after empty headed buzzword. When we get past the hype, how privae is the cloud going to be? And, how much will it cost me to have all my data in the cloud, where anyone and everyone can pick through it? And, how much is the author payed per buzzword?
There is an interesting WebOS offering at called G.ho.st (http://G.ho.st) which is an acronym of Global Hosted Operating SysTem
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"(TV, movies, music, newspapers, gaming, etc. have been strongly disrupted by the Web and now largely reside there)"

TV/Movies: Yes and no. New generation is online, but old generation is still there. I don't see the TV and movie industries doing anything desparate.

Newspapers: Yes and no again. Global newspapers are mostly electronic, but I'm still seing local newspapers around. A lot of non-technical people are still using paper.

Gaming: Not really. The stores that sell games have gone online, but not really the games themselves - unless they were online to begin with. They certainly aren't moving into the browser: They'd rather the online component be built into the game itself than to rely on a browser.

That graph makes no sense at all - you really think HTTP and REST are the ultimate center of the universe?

HTTP is not used by games, and is horrid for any sort of realtime application. I'm willing to bet that 99% of video streaming and games are NOT done via HTTP. You may download the plugin via HTTP, but I'd bet anything once that plugin is installed it opens up UDP ports and bypasses HTTP completely.

. . . and REST has some drawbacks as well: The biggest one being unable to store state information. This is one of the reasons our browsers tend to get littered with cookies: They're attempts to store state information.

Frankly, that's a huge drawback, and I'd hate to build any large scale application that interacts with a large number of users. What use is an application that can never remember what the user is doing?

"Innovation is one of the easiest and least risky areas that can be tapped by most organizations."

Which is why R&D is so expensive, right?

Umm, no.

Even with a totally connected world, you still may not find the best ideas, and there's no telling if an idea will succeed or not unless you try it. Pooling together more heads means more ideas to try - it doesn't mean the quality of those ideas is any better.

"Vertical and horizontal crowdsourcing models are increasingly viable as 3rd party intermediaries grow in size and experience. "

Great, we have crowdsourcing. Now if only we can find something useful to do with it.

Being that most of the "crowd" will be unfamiliar with all of the details of your exact situation - quite frankly, I'd expect the quality of crowdsourcing to be very low.

"To get ready to participate in the Web OS, enterprises need to re-examine how they organize, share, and open data."

. . . and while they're at it, they should always examine the ethical implications of re-examining how they organize, share, and open data.

. . . because frankly, not all data is meant to be shared and open.

"Plugging into open supply chains dynamically means a new view of operations"

Whatever that means. Last I checked, USPS, UPS, and FedEx have always been pretty open about what they ship.

Using "pluggable" in reference to supply chains is cute, but misleading. All you need to do is to grab a phone book (or open a browser to an online one) and supply your address to another supplier.

"SaaS is the slippery slope for Web OS adoption."

SaaS is IMHO ignoring a few realities:

a) The reality that somebody else owns your data. Trust and reliability are major concerns.

b) The reality that they can shut you down at any time on a whim. Missed a payment? Bye bye software. They don't like the way you do business? Have fun next time you want to renew. They decide to upgrade their servers in China in the middle of the night? Well, guess what, in your time zone it's the middle of the day and your work gets disrupted. They become bankrupt and need to liquidate? Well, guess what, your data is gone, or worse, stolen when they don't have the money to destroy it properly.

c) The reality that you are now paying more for software under the blatently false assumption that you've been a slave to the upgrade treadmill, and just haven't "seen the light."

Question of the day:

Will all of this help the REAL world in a meaningful manner?

-Will it wash my dishes?
-Will it make my car go faster?
-Will it make my car more efficient?
-Will it clean my room for me?
-Will it make my life easier in ANY meaningful way?

I'm afraid most of this is technology for the sake of technology. Who knows - maybe my next fridge might be $0.02 cheaper because of all this. Or maybe it won't make a difference at all.

Frankly, I'd love to see the real, material gains because of all this. What is really improving in my everyday life?
@CobraA1 Security can be easily solved by encryption. Look at
Blackberry, it is considered secure enough to be used
by the U.S. government and the White House. The data
is encrypted at the source (handset) and remains
encrypted until it is received by another handheld,
where it is decrypted. All data residing on servers is
encrypted with a strong encryption. The same can be
done with any IT app.

As for reliability, most apps can tolerate 99.99%
uptime which translate orjin krems to about 5 hours of downtime
per year. This can be achieved by cloud computing.
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The same old grifters
tonymcs@... 6th Sep 2009
It's remarkable how similar cloud is to the huge move to privatisation over the last 15 years. We were told selling government assets and moving to the private sector was going to bring so many benefits.

The answer was quite true, it gave so many benefits to a small group of people and screwed over the rest of us. There are enough reports already in that tell the story, no matter how it hurts your ideology.

For any organisation, the cloud deal is the same thing. Instead of having a trusted internal department (which you control) to provide your IT services, you instead use an external provider who no longer shares your priorities. The gaping holes in security and the fragility of the web connection get papered over and they figure if they don't let new people use desktop and intranet apps, they won't know what they're missing in terms of speed and reliability. You are also effectively taking on a business partner who you have no control over, and if they go down, it's going to be a disaster for your business.

It's also about time the blogger realised that a wall of buzz-words and a pretty graphic don't take the place of reasoned argument.

Please sir, could I have some more snake oil wink

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Your last two paragraphs...
bjbrock 6th Sep 2009
say it all. I've never read an article so long that said so little. I don't think this blogger has a clue about what is happening in the real world. Like all proponents of the cloud, they sit behind their desk and come up with ideas that are incoherent and no business in their right mind would touch.

Most of this bloggers blogs are lengthy like this one and they say nothing of any value. Where does ZDNet get some of its bloggers. Most are wannabe IT people that can't make it in the trenches so they decide to spew rhetoric like this one. It unbelievable.
@tonymcs@... Oh and btw, I think they are called mashups because of the code not any musical phenomenon - have you even tried to read any of it?
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Backwards and upside down
dave.leigh@... Updated - 6th Sep 2009
The whole concept of cloud computing is backwards and upside down. You're telling people who already have enough spare processing power that they donate CPU cycles to frivolities like SETI and ASTRA that they should further waste their resources by offloading their core processing to a cloud vendor. Beyond the processing doublethink, you're suggesting they migrate from an infrastructure where 90% of their traffic is secure and unimpeded to one where they share the wire with a billion other people, millions of which are laughing at "jackass" videos on YouTube at any given moment; and thousands of which are claiming to represent your long-lost rich uncle in Nigeria.

The word for this strategy is "STUPID". Oh, certainly a large number of people are impressed at seeing big words in magazines and buy into such tripe, just as many people bought into credit default swaps at the turn of this century: and we all know how that lemming strategy worked out, too. I've got a real bad feelin' about this, Chewie... if you thought the "dotcom" bubble was bad, just wait.

There is absolutely nothing that a cloud vendor can provide you that you cannot provide yourself. Nothing. Cloud vendors are not your friends. They're selling you a handful of pretty beads, and all it will cost you is Manhattan.
This article reads like you played buzzword bingo while drunk.

The WebOS: Really? You use the words "Operating System" in such a way so as to make them completely meaningless. Define your terms. Oh, wait, you can't! You're talking out your ass!

About your graphic: good graphic design uses space, text, and shapes to indicate some sort of relationship between points in a set of data. I'm really not sure what kind of relationship is being displayed in your adorable little colored text blob there, because I think there could be anywhere from eight to twenty differently ill-defined ideas. Is time a factor there? Sorta, a little. Related-ness? Semantic... close-ness? Evolution? Dependency? Wow, look, I'm playing the same game you were, in your article!

Damn, the idiots really have won.
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Hybrid environments....
JB King 6th Sep 2009
How many companies will have a mix of Mac, Windows and Linux machines on their networks? That is part of what the WebOS can bring as there may be cases where people want to bring a laptop from home into the office and thus whatever someone has at home is what comes into the Enterprise. Part of the WebOS is to see how Google's Chrome O/S does when it comes out and how well are some software set up for different environments, e.g. do the tools under an IE in Windows run just as well as in Safari on a Mac? That may be something to see coming soon...
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You have no clue ...
wackoae 6th Sep 2009
Honestly, you don't even have the most minimal clue of what you are talking about.

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RE: How the Web OS has begun to reshape IT and business
sinemafilmizle Updated - 26th Mar 2011
@wackoae

You're right

Film izle
Eyvah Eyvah 2 izle
Recep ivedik 3 izle
Yahsi BATI izle
Avatar izle
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Have you even looked at Mechanical Turk?
cyberpunk@... 6th Sep 2009
Okay I tried to give the poster benefit of doubt, and tried to glean anything new from the article despite its fluffiness.

I found the posts a bit more interesting. Several of the posts are coming from people who mix up DNS/Email servers, desktop applications and cloud computing. But some are quite correct about security issues, lack of visibility of hidden costs, and questioning the use of many buzzwords at once. I do think there is a lack of research.

I suppose "crowdsourcing" is real if by that you mean open source software development by large groups, and getting useful info from random comments to a blog article. Also it is difficult to get anything useful out of the chart. Talented illustrator you have though, it's pretty.

Well I had not visited the Amazon Mechanical Turk site before and so I just did because of the article. Well, it looks like a total scam. Top page says about 35000 jobs are available but a search says max 2000. Sorting by highest reward first, the top one has a reward of 5 CENTS. (5 cents to bookmark a website apparently). This is NOT the future of the net or any future I care to hear about. Similarly I have seen job boards and they are mostly for programming or translation. The programming jobs make you fight it out with Indian and Chinese at their local rates.

Lest Mr. Hinchcliffe say this is not a big example, I must say that I have also recently listened to an hour of webcasts by execs who are promoting webos style ventures. It seemed to be quite bankrupt from an ethical point of view. The big business play was to steal personal information of facebook users with web robots and then mine the data, then indexing this stolen personal data against a database of live events. The other guy was the head I believe of salesforce.com and at least his presentation made sense, talking about integration with google apps and how they run more transactions for other unknown parties over the web api than their own users, somehow.

It all seems a bit disingenuous and it is not clear that real value is being delivered by these things yet. It is all a bit bubbly. That said, I suppose I ought to dust off a similar concept I've had for years since if there's money to be had anywhere it must be in this space. The rest of web venture investment has been in the words of an investor recently, "nuclear winter".

I felt bad seeing such vociferous responses to the blog and wondered if Dion might lose his job. But I decided, it would be better to just demand that he stop writing until he has something to write about, and then not about trying to make wide-sweeping trends sound voluptuous but rather about a single application or company in detail. The best information I got from the article was about g.ho.st.

Finally I would caution Hinchcliffe about vaguely waving the arms at things like "plugging into open supply chains". I imagine this is a very important concept but it is just a footnote to the article. It should be the main article itself. Clearly there are a lot of questions about profitability and competitiveness involved I think. If anybody can join it, then does the work go to Bangladesh? What about liability and human contact? Research supply chains has always been a key tool for dismembering the competition and breaking in to a market. Is it really going to be that open? At the moment all I see is large corporations installing cloud software in their own data centers and using the concept in-house for efficiency. A lot more questions need to be answered.
A message to the Microsoft astroturfers - let me introduce you to real-world reality - trying to deny the approaching speeding train exists won't make it stop.
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Great comment!
linuser Updated - 7th Sep 2009
I'm sure vacuum tube designers slung mud at transistors, when they were first introduced, and we all know how that story ended.
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that any other OS long after you and I are no longer able to even use a computer. Their Office suite will still be the dominant productivity app for just as long. Apple and Linux to a lesser extent may make some inroads in the OS but they will be tiny compared to MS.

The Web OS is still just a jumbled mess that only a few have figured out and the rest are spinning their wheels. But they still need a desktop OS to access it and Windows will be that OS for the majority forever.

MS is, however, throwing their money away trying to grab a piece of the Web OS. They fumble the ball in this respect more than anyone. They should have been happy with the desktop market and left it at that. But I guess if they have the money to burn then they can burn it.

In any respect, Microsoft isn't going anywhere. And especially not the way of the vacuum tube. MS naysayers will be naysaying for a lloonngg time because MS is here to stay.
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...but not on the other platforms
moondowner 7th Sep 2009
and a very good sentence you posted: "MS is, however, throwing their money away trying to grab a piece of the Web OS."

True, and if they don't buy a startup that makes a good Web OS using their technologies, they're in mess.

But, wait... their technology isn't ready yet!

And about "They fumble the ball in this respect more than anyone." false. They are late in this technology, and when they was that there is interest and money, they started developing their implementations.

As for the desktop market, I agree with you, MS isn't going anywhere soon..
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Has nothing to do with Microsoft astroturfers
jimk_z Updated - 9th Sep 2009
Instead of thinking all things must run off the cloud, how about offering options. The cloud or the capability to run the app on your own servers. Running apps internally on your own private secured servers has nothing to do with Microsoft.

I'm sure something like Google Wave will be cool. But I'm not going to have employees use it to collaborate and share privy company info unless I can run my own wave server.

Id love to use Google apps if there was some enterprise version of the app that can be purchased and run standalone. No one says people are married to Office or Exchange. But many IT people want the control on their own hardware on their own network.
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2 points on portability
shis-ka-bob 9th Sep 2009
First, Google has made it clear that they are releasing Wave as open source and they created ways to federate. So, you can run a Wave on you own server, and allow a Wave on your Wave expand to other Wave servers if you so choose. Look at the massive Wave video. (hour+)

AppEngine looks a lot like a JVM, you can write applications that port between the two with only a bit of work. Apache's HBase is written as a Big Table work-alike, so if you write your persistence using JPA, you can port between these databases with some effort.

So, an equivalent to Google's cloud platform can be brought 'in house' with some effort.
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about reality.
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NOT...I didn't see anything here (so far) about MS. Grow up...sheeh.
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Smells like the same prognostications
terry flores 7th Sep 2009
made back in the 1950's that said we'd all be commuting to work in personal aircraft at the turn of the millennium. Sorry, the train I commute to work on was built in the 1960's and it continues to function just fine (even if it smells a little).

We use a little "cloud computing" to do non-mission-critical work, and customer fribbles. It DOES NOT do our payroll, financials, engineering design, sales orders, or anything that has to do with money, assets or business-confidential information.

Every couple of years the CFO and CIO start listening to the siren calls of outsource salesmen. The salespeople usually point them to some "reference" company that sings their praises. If the CFO starts to get a little wonky, we in IT just go out and contact the "little guys" in those companies and get the REAL STORY on how badly serviced they are, then the whole thing just "goes away" at least for another couple of years.
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Another BS article ...
tuvalis Updated - 7th Sep 2009
This is a complete BS with a nice graphic. The
thing
about Dion H is that his prognostications keep
changing
with time ( aka evolving). Atleast I cant read any
actionable items in this blog . If anyone does,
will be
more than happy to learn ..
Cloud = all eggs in one basket, held by a thread (network line).

Offshoring = cheapens; race to the bottom. (That'll effect the rich too, who will in turn blame everyone else for not spending...)

Crowdsourcing? **** that, why hand out free ideas when one can be an entrepreneur and not slave or pimp one's self out to some entity that, when it gets too pricey to spend pennies on the dollar for labor, will charge people to work for them. People are already accustomed to paying $10 for a t-shirt with their big brand name on it (usually the one with the logo has to pay, not the other way around.)

What next, bartering? Like everything else, economic systems should evolve - not devolve.

But people will buy into it and not be bothered to think.


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while (money=monaaaaay)
{

1. Create an unnecessary layer of obstruction to data access and manipulation.

2. Hold conferences saying it's the new thing. Make companies that refuse to budge look obsolete.

3. Charge monaaaaay!

4. (of course) There will be security holes. Charge for premium secure data access; break feature into multiple tiers and charge accordingly.

5. More monaaaaay!

6. Connection down? Charge money for premium "ASPF" (Application State Protection Feature). Also call up our pals at the ISPs; this may be a chance for them to make monaaaaay from a "guaranteed, uninterruptible service", barring acts of nature and terrorists, of course.

7. Big monaaaaay! Big monaaaaay!

8. In the first 2-3 years, restrict monthly bandwidth a la early days of mobile broadband. Charge fees per day, app, etc. for overages.

9. Hoo! Look at all the monaaaaay!

10. Eventually, a young scrapper of a company will provide unlimited bandwidth for a fixed rate. Then we also do the same, but with better brand recognition.

11. Eventually, scrapper will be crushed under our mighty wave of advertising. Said scrapper will either be assimilated into us or go bankrupt.

12. I can't believe it's more monaaaaay!

}

I could be wrong, but I feel this is an idea pushed more by bean counters than actual technologists.

Perhaps in the future, when fiber-optic speeds of today feel like dial-up, and the Internet is synonymous with safety (riiight), but as things stand today and the foreseeable future, I just don't see Pixar running Renderman on the cloud with the renderfarms at some third party's facility (you get my point).
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Many people here with the head in the sand
theo_durcan Updated - 7th Sep 2009
Any disruptive technology is received with aprehension, it threatens employment security obtained by pampering the platform that need constant pampering to function.
I notice the astroturfers & PR army are getting more agressive, personal insults level is rising, I think this is due to some shaky working conditions, you now many layoffs lately.

Now to the subject, the cloud is here to stay, & grow. This grow will happens to the expense of MS? you bet. Is happening. The key aspect of the cloud is wiped off in most posts, so here is a reality reminder. First moving to the cloud are individuals. and next are professionals and programmers, etc. People are storing in the cloud by 100's of terabytes of personal memorabilia, documents & media. Google apps by far are more advanced that any MSOffice has to offer.
So better revise your crystal ball. In this tight environment, I predict more and more chunks of enterprise operations moving to the cloud. Just remember, the economy of scale are enormous and you cant spin around this fact.
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Talk about astroturfing
wackoae 7th Sep 2009
Are you really this dumb??

People are storing 100's of TB in clouds?? Sure, dumb people are. And look at what is happening to the TBs .... they are flying with the clouds into the wrong hands.

Ever read what some of the "cloud" providers are doing with their user's data?? They are selling them to the highest bidders.

That is now, just image if companies start putting their stuff in the hands of cheap 3rd parties. Can you say data-breach or corporate espionage?
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Hmmm
bmonsterman 8th Sep 2009
I'm not saying that you're wrong. From what I've
seen, Google Apps are a value prop...but more
advanced? How?
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Easy
theo_durcan 8th Sep 2009
Really is easy to build a better value proposition than MSOffice. Half of .docs I receive cannot be opened because format incompatibilities. But, are opened & processed by OpenOffice, GoogleDocs, even BBEdit, but not MSware. Spinners can spin anything, the fact remains that, FROM A USER standpoint this is unaceptable. Period. Spinners can spin hardly on this, the fact remains.
This for users is a fundamentally wrong proposition.
So, OpenOffice & GoogleDocs offers more value from the starting point. At least I know my data is my data, not encoded in a secret XML schema that I have to pay to use it. Why? Do I put it on the cloud? Yes. I work with many people across continents, you would be surprised how widely used OpenOffice is. I want to comunicate, share, collaborate with anybody & I do it & use the proper tools.
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Still
bmonsterman 9th Sep 2009
If you aren't on the OpenOffice bandwagon this doesn't bring that much to the table. Office still has most of the market share, so most people don't care about these incompatibilities. I don't want to get in a ODF vs OOXML debate. Putting the file format issue aside, what other features does Google apps bring to the table that MS Office does not?
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One more question
bmonsterman 8th Sep 2009
First of all, Microsoft has been working on cloud
offerings of their own. They will begin offering
a cloud version of office in the 2010 release.
They are currently piloting a cloud based
development platform called Azure. Seems like MS
is moving with the times to me.
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You are right...
dtn_cybermail@... 7th Sep 2009
A lot is moving to the "cloud". But personal media is one thing, company secrets another. It's risky enough as it is that a company with its own digital information under its own guard can still have the data compromised, much more so when a third party will be responsible for it. Think of what will happen with security compromise, with the "cloud provider" selling company secrets to the company's rivals, etc. IMO, the biggest hurdle to cloud computing is security. Company data is high-risk and sensitive enough as it is, even in the hands of the company itself.

The infrastructure, even today, is somewhat available and will get better, but there is still the concern of how your ENTIRE company essentially comes to a halt the moment your Internet connection is down. Sure Google Apps are great - I wouldn't say more advanced than Office though; each one seems to have something the other is lacking - until you're on the go and you have spotty or no service. Whenever my Internet service is down for any reason, my consolation is always "Well, at least I can work with my apps offline until service is back up again." With exclusive cloud computing you'd lose everything.

I think more likely a hybrid structure will be established - some things on the cloud, some locally resident, with companies sorting things out as needed; I just don't think we can go thin client all the way.

Let's not forget that some information are deemed too critical to even house in a computer at all, or at least in a computer that is connected to the Internet, much less in some remotely-located server.

PS: This has nothing to do with Microsoft, who could very well morph Windows itself into a cloud computing platform. Indeed, when you think of it, it would actually give them greater control: your Windows Cloud PC simply comes with Internet Explorer; connect to all Windows features and services remotely, but only if your PC's hardware hash matches the assigned Windows key. Pirates could be easily shut out all together, and every attempt at circumventing can be constantly shut down since the media being accessed is on Microsoft's own servers, not on your local computer you could fool into authenticating with a keygen or the like.
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You are right too...
bmonsterman 9th Sep 2009
This isn't Cloud vs Microsoft. Microsoft has, albeit a CTP version, a cloud based development
platform, Azure. There also is going to release
2010 Office with a cloud based version similar to
Google Apps. ABMer's may see the cloud as a
chance to know MS off of their throne. It is
certainly an opportunity for other platforms to
gain traction, but MS's decline is not yet
assured.
The Cloud detractors are correct; there are serious shortcomings in the areas of security, custody and access with the cloud. But the mainframe guys had exactly the same set of concerns and we know that, while still around, there are fewer of them.

In the relatively near future, there will be significant economic and political pressure to move IT into a more granular model. The granularity will include both variable and fixed costs. Rising processor capacities will make centralized computing more feasible and more economical than distributed assets. Standardized and easily customized software platforms like SalesForce and Google Office will reduce the need for expensive and risky in-house development and deployments.

We went from corporate data centers to co-lo. From divisional compute -- email, ERP, etc. -- to centralized. From in-house IT management to various levels of outsourcing. This was all based on a tried-and-true economic principle called specialization. The biggest beneficiaries have been small businesses. They now have access to the best software, years of development and 24x7 support all for a reasonable monthly fee. Just try to find an IT guy who knows security, OS, email, architecture, network, project management and applications who doesn't sleep because the managed service providers can give you all of that for less that the cost of a couple of Microsoft As.

Web, Cloud, SaaS, PaaS, whatever you want to call it is inevitable and will be a powerfully democratizing force.

And we haven't even touched on the business functions that will be moving to the mobile and smartphone platforms.
At first I thought the article would be about Palm Pre and its WebOS. Gee... that was a huge mistake.
I cannot believe it is written by an enterprise architect - no insights, no substance, no real conclusions, no ananlysis of pros and cons, written in a plain too non-technical language. It looks like a pressie for a business crowd. No wonder the economy is in trouble if people with such a limited big-picture view are considered tech guru.

OS by definition is an interface between a user and a hardware. What is presented in the article is sort of a business model, not an OS. Why is this new? Most companies already operate in "WebOS". The rate of adoption is different as it dictated by the niche, business type, customers, and so on.

So, really, what is new here that requires an enterprise architect insights to see it?
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I would hate to see ZDnet going the way of PCWeek, InformationWeek and other paper magazines that are now printing this type of junk. It is very sad when in entire magazine there is only one or two pages worth of material and the rest is filled with buzzwords wrapped in thick layer of BS.
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Unfortunately your right...
ItsTheBottomLine 10th Sep 2009
I read the links looking for more meat, but this is something that would be given to my CIO and he would run with it...and what I see is tissue paper with no hard solutions. We have a tough business model and the cloud is way too immature for most of our users. Eventually yes, he sees this and he starts slashing. We have see it before, and then the project fails (consultants and the software vendors themselves) because it does not meet the needs of our users. The software needs to match the users needs not the user match the softwares capabilities and the I'm sorry cloud software is not there yet. salesforce.com is a prim example for us. Failed miserablly, because it was simplistic and was quickly shot down...will it be there - I would venture to say yes.
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Web vs. Internet
info@... 8th Sep 2009
It's not the Web/Browser based platform that's changing IT ... it's the
Network/Internet, a big distinction. Who cares what the end user
platform is be it Browser/iPhone/Custom Client/Anything XML? Whatever
is best for the end user.
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The push for the cloud does have a monetary agenda. Its the same reason why many companies no longer sell their applications stand alone. Instead they would rather sell you a device so they force and control expensive hardware & software upgrades.
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Well I tend to think some compromise will be struck, at least that is what I'd personally be comfortable with, which would be private clouds. So to that end, I would guestimate that there is a huge future in providing private cloud hardware and software as well as a continued growing future for colo providers and bandwidth providers. What percentage that hardware and software will be located inhouse or colo'd, I couldn't possibly guess, but it might be fair to say 50-50?

I think the important thing regarding the loaded term "cloud" is that clouds can be shared or private. I don't particularly like the sounds of shared clouds either. On the other hand, change is never easy to swallow.
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advertising jingle to match
bearlyworking 9th Sep 2009
An advertising jingle / song / lyrics use that has come to mind would be the Rolling Stones "Hey, you, get off of my cloud." Which has probably already been used. If not it will be shortly after someone in advertising at IBM or Microsoft or Red Hat reads this post, probably.

I am not certified in anything. Just using common sense though to try to foresee demand in cloud technology.
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This is the same old story that's been told ove and over since the bubble days. Nothing new here at all. WOA? Could be the worst sounding acronym I;ve ever heard, I give him points for that.

The assertion that, "[the] Web OS...is reaching the tipping point..." huh? You mean it hasn't been past the tipping point for five+ years now? Well then, if the tipping point wasn't the first time it was recorded that there were more PCs in homes than TVs, or the first time it was recorded that people on average surfed the internet and web more hours than they watched TV, what exactly is the coming tipping point?

And Web OS maybe catchy, but it belies a fundamental misunderstanding, as well as spreads one, As the Web per se is the presentation layer, the UI, and the UI and the presentation layer are not the OS, not at all.

The web browser is like a VM hosted by the device it is running on top of, a sort of priveledged guest VM.

The protocols and transport layers that allow for syncronous and asyncronous communication between the browser, the host device the browser is running on top of, and the remote services, data, compute and storage infrastructures, and the various interfaces and APIs for the same, all together make up the distributed "OS" -

"Web OS" is a poor reductionism and a fundamental miss-understanding, and it likely helped cause this piece's lack of anything particularly or creative - it is a rather shallow and small tarp to prepare a meal under - and doesn't do any conceptual or creative good as a moniker.

The graphic speaks reasonably and clearly to these services and protocols (albeit fast and loosely), so let's hope a better term is ultimately adopted (probably not, but let's not mistake coming up with a catchy phrase, or simply repeating it, for actual insightful analysis).
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Brilliant abstraction of what is to come
udayshiva@... 9th Sep 2009
Like most things/tech waves, this is sure to come in dribs & drabs. But, for someone to paint a picture of what may happen is pretty amazing...enjoyed the article thoroughly
Rgds
Uday
How about the best of both worlds? Computers with Brains and Memories for people with Brains and Memories and computers with No Brains and No Memories for people with No Brains and No Memories?
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How about the best of both worlds? Computers with ev dekorasyon

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