Google is extremely confident, in itself. Google CEO Eric Schmidt believes in the “Power Law Distribution,” how it powers Google’s success, in particular.
I heard Schmidt proclaim to Bear Stearns earlier this week a Google YouTube invincibility: “With only a small number of online video winners feasible, other players will be “crowded out,” he predicted.
What about Google Television? Is Google betting on the “Power Law Distribution” there too?
I asked last month "Can Google crack $74 billion TV ad market?"
Today’s Wall Street Journal headline already puts Google in the TV power seat: “Google gains on goal of controlling and targeting TV commercials.”
It is no surprise that Google would be proclaimed the emerging victor in a battle it has yet to wage. I recently put forth “Should Google be trusted?,” underscoring how when Google speaks, the world listens, especially the media.
Google’s favored diversification product introduction strategy is to run new advertising product “tests” with prospective partners before formally announcing a marketplace launch of the ad product, as it is currently doing with Google Audio Ads for radio.
Google Radio tests have not proven sufficiently successful and Google has not met its projected Google Audio Ads marketplace introduction date of Q4 2006. Moreover, Google’s radio diversification efforts appear to have stalled, following a surprising departure of the founding management team of dMarc, its radio advertising infrastructure acquisition of 2006.
Because the outcomes of new product testing are, by definition, unknown, Google is generally mum on new product tests underway. Lack of direct insight from Google, however, does not deter general speculation that a Google product test in any given sector portends an impending Google diversification slam dunk in the sector.
The WSJ headlining assertion that “Google gains on goal of controlling and targeting TV commercials” is apparently not based on Google’s own assessment of its current TV ad tests. A Google spokesman is cited:
As we have stated publicly, we think we can add value to TV advertising by making this important medium more relevant for users, measurable and more accountable for existing and new advertisers. As part of this, we are currently running a small, early phase trial working closely with a small number of partners and advertisers.
Google also believes it can “add value” to radio advertising “by making this important medium more relevant for users, measurable and more accountable for existing and new advertisers.”
Despite Google’s several years of believing, however, its efforts to bring the Google revolution to radio advertising, including a $100 million plus acquisition, have resulted in no meaningful impact on the Google bottom line, neither have its Google Print diversification test efforts.
Is there any reason to believe that a Google Television search for TV ad dollars will be successful?