A Windows 8 tablet in Q1 2012? Hmmm...

By | February 16, 2011, 5:05pm PST

Summary: There’s an alleged leaked Dell roadmap making the rounds that shows a timeline indicating that Dell is going to ship a Windows 8 tablet, codenamed Peju, in the first quarter of 2012. My first reaction on seeing this is… No way.

There’s an alleged leaked Dell roadmap making the rounds that shows a timeline indicating that Dell is going to ship a Windows 8 tablet, codenamed Peju, in the first quarter of 2012.

My first reaction on seeing this is… No way. How can this possibly be, given that we haven’t even seen a first tech preview of Windows 8 — and are unlikely to see one, according to most informed (and uninformed) speculation until fall 2011? I’m still thinking Windows 8 will be released to manufacturing in time to make it onto PCs for holiday 2012, but there are also some claiming it won’t be out until some time in early 2013.

Put another way: If Microsoft delivers a public beta or two, and does the final fit and finish work on Windows 8, is there any way that it could possibly be released to manufacturing in late 2011, which is what Dell would need to get it onto tablets in time to ship it in Q1 2012? I just don’t see it. (And for the record, Microsoft officials are not commenting. I asked.)

There is another remote possibility… and one that’s been in the back of my mind for a while now. Let me say up front that this is all pure and utter conjecture on my part.

What if Microsoft is planning to deliver the system-on-a-chip version of Windows 8 first? The company is believed to have been working on a port of Windows to ARM for several years now, starting with the rumored “LongARM” project. So what if the SoC version of “Windows Next” that Microsoft showed off at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) this past January was a lot further along than many think? Microsoft has said it plans to deliver Windows “Next” — which is widely assumed to be the same as Windows 8 by most sane and rational people — on Soc chips from Intel, AMD and ARM.

The purported leaked Dell roadmap also shows a new Windows Phone 7 from Dell, codenamed “Wrigley,” shipping in July. Wrigley is said to be running a “major new version” of the Windows Phone OS. That feasibly could mean “NoDo,” the version that Microsoft is expected to deliver in early March 2011. If it means “Mango,” the true “next major version” of the OS, which Microsoft is expected to release to manufacturing in early fall 2011, the roadmap is off (or dated).

What’s your take? Is there any possible way you can see Dell delivering a Windows 8 tablet so soon?

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Mary Jo has covered the tech industry for more than 25 years for a variety of publications and Web sites, and is a frequent guest on radio, TV and podcasts, speaking about all things Microsoft-related. She is the author of Microsoft 2.0: How Microsoft plans to stay relevant in the post-Gates era (John Wiley & Sons, 2008).

Disclosure

Mary-Jo Foley

Freelance journalist/blogger Mary Jo Foley has nothing to disclose. WYSIWYG (what you see is what you get). I do not own Microsoft stock or stock in any of its partners or competitors. I have no business ventures that are sponsored by/funded by Microsoft or any of its partners or competitors.

Biography

Mary-Jo Foley

Mary Jo Foley has covered the tech industry for 25 years for a variety of publications, including ZDNet, eWeek and Baseline. She has kept close tabs on Microsoft strategy, products and technologies for the past 10 years. In the late 1990s, she penned the award-winning "At The Evil Empire" column for ZDNet, and more recently the Microsoft Watch blog for Ziff Davis.

Got a tip? Send her an email with your rants, rumors, tips and tattles. Confidentiality guaranteed.

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RE: A Windows 8 tablet in Q1 2012? Hmmm...
homeioy26-24353595963389203614689387349918 10th Nov
qitfmq,good post!
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Very interesting guess work, Mary! It *might* make sense: they could do something like what Google's done with Honeycomb/Ice-Cream - ship SOC first and now worry about making it compatible with 'grown-up' Windows, then use the next release cycle to get the SOC Tablet Windows synced up with x86/x64 Windows.
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@willpe
Its definitely possible.
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@willpe I dont think that will happen.
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@willpe and Mary Jo: my take is that Windows 8 is really two separate and distinct projects:

1) Plain vanilla Windows 8 for x86 and x64: code optimization, move to .NET Framework 4 or 5. IE9. Dual and quad core support. Better GPU/APU support. Touch friendly APIs for touch friendlier taskbar and start menu.

2) Windows 8 for SoC (aka ARM, but they won't use that name to avoid upsetting Intel's tummy): Minimal UI based on Metro, optimized for tablets. No Windows 7 application compatibility. Full Windows Phone 7 app compatibility. Extended Marketplace. Full driver compatibility with Windows Vista and 7 (which is a key nobody's focusing on). Dual mode use (aka like Motorola Atrix) on Intel Atom, with full blown UI on Netbook and dock and limited functionality as smartphone.

Maybe Dell's tablet is Atom only and on Q3-12 we'll start seeing Snapdragon versions of same reference design.
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RE: A Windows 8 tablet in Q1 2012? Hmmm...
Cylon Centurion 16th Feb 2011
No way would Microsoft miss holiday sales. Their OEMs would be unforgiving.
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@Cylon Centurion 0005

Their OEMs would be unforgiving.

Where would they go?
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@none none : Android, Ubuntu, et al.

Remember, this is a ARM Windows we are speaking of. On that turf, Microsoft has plenty of competition. And at this moment, they can't toss the usual "...but we are the only compatible with such and such...", as no current Win32 app works with ARM. If developers had catched the bait and switched to WinForms and WPF, we would be on another place, but those two "platforms" (and I say that under quotes) never took off.
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Contributr
holiday
Mary Jo Foley 17th Feb 2011
Hi. I thought about that, too. But I really cannot see them getting Win 8 out in time for holiday 2011, given it is still in internal milestone build stage, at this point. One of my Twitter followers is wondering whether those dates on the roadmap are for test versions of new tablets (that could be shown off at CES 2012)... I don't know, but Q1 is an odd timing choice, however you look at it... Thanks. MJ
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RE: A Windows 8 tablet in Q1 2012? Hmmm...
Cylon Centurion 17th Feb 2011
@Mary Jo Foley

Sorry, I guess I should have specified. I meant holiday 2012. There's no way, we'll see final code this year, and I know there is a lot of work to be done with Windows.Next, but prolonging that into 2013, would be a bad idea, IMO.
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Hilarious
Ron Burgundy 16th Feb 2011
Windows 8 tablets....just in time for iPad 3...

As usual Ballmer is three years late to the game....just like

Zune
Zune HD
WP7

Notice every time Ballmer comes late to the game it's after he laughs at the competition for coming out with it first then suddenly realizing he was an idiot for laughing at it.

Fire this goon.
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RE: A Windows 8 tablet in Q1 2012? Hmmm...
charlesdjones1 17th Feb 2011
@Ron Burgundy
We can all agree that Zune didn't even begin to scrape the installed user base of iPod owners, but Microsoft just added over 2 million new Zune account holders in 3 months. These are also known as Windows Phone 7 users. Zune is here to stay, just like Bing, just like Windows, just like Office.
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RE: A Windows 8 tablet in Q1 2012? Hmmm...
Socratesfoot Updated - 17th Feb 2011
@charlesdjones1 But is it here sustainably or will it become something that Microsoft has to carry on the backs of other product lines. Zune is definitely a carry product, it's there because it's the only thing they have to compete with iPod, not because it's succeeding in the market; nobody says, let me BING that fro you, they "Google" it; and Windows Phone 7 has not taken over the smart phone market, but instead grabbed non-smart phone users looking for basic smart phone features. Even Office has pretty much plateaued. XBOX has done well, but only after taking a loss for years and then only after building huge layers of integration between Windows OS, other Windows devices, and cloud applications that forced it's use on users..
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2 million Zune account holders!?
HollywoodDog 17th Feb 2011
@charlesdjones1 ... source?

All I read was that they stuffed the channel with Zune Phones. And now that everyone in the world is familiar with stuffing the channel, the stories actually explain that up front, that Microsoft pushed phones to retailers and nobody will say how many got sold.
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@charlesdjones1

IMO Zune is superior in every way to its competition - the devices, the software, everything.

Apple has years of iPod history, and millions of iPod customers with trillions of dollars in DRM-protected tunes that will only play on iPod. It was never going to be easy for Zune or anyone else to get much traction against that. For people who don't have an investment in DRM-protected music, any fair comparison will have them running Zune.
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Few iPod users have DRM tunes
HollywoodDog 17th Feb 2011
@charlesdjones1 ... "millions of iPod customers with trillions of dollars in DRM-protected tunes that will only play on iPod"

not factual. Even in the heyday of DRM on iPod, only something like 2% of total music on the iPods were DRM'd.
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Yak, Yak, Yak, HollyWoodDog
John Zern 17th Feb 2011
you sound like a broken record anymore.

I hear Apple stuffs the channel, do you wish to dispove it?
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@charlesdjones1 : just like Kin?

Not sure Bing and Zune are here for the long run.

Ironically, the only one that might stay "forever" is Office, as future versions of Windows might not be Windows at all, like "Windows" Phone 7.

That, my friend is called brand erosion. It happened to Scotch (tape) when 3M started branding everything with that name. It happened to Hummer (when they branded badge engineered GMC trucks as Hummers). And it happened to IBM when anything not server was a Think-something. And guess what happened to all this "companies"?
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Yes Phone7, Zune, Bing, Windows & Office are here ..
StandardPerson Updated - 24th Feb 2011
but for how long will they stay? (@charlesdjones1).

OpenOffice is free and can do anything almost anything that Office can do.

Apple's Pages and Numbers are more useful than MS Office for the vast majority. (Yes, yes, everyone here claims to be a Wall Street quant, who relies on terabyte-sized spreadsheets that are so badly written that they collapse in a heap when faced with any non-MS spreadsheet. I believe perhaps 1% of these claims and of that 1% I suspect 90% are written by people who are too stupid or inept or ignorant to remain successful traders in a non-monotonic market.)

Phone7 will succeed to some extent because of Nokia. I don't know anyone who prefers Bing. Windows will continue because of corporate laziness and inertia.
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@Ron Burgundy

Sometimes successes are not so apparent. While the sales of Zune were disappointing it is now one of several standout, unique features of WP7 and by whatever name its technology will play an increasingly important role in Microsoft?s convergence strategy.

As for WP7 being too late--dream on. It has already captured 3rd in mindshare. Its app store is on an incredible run and rising faster than Android?s did and so far keeping pace with Apple?s. Already some games are generating more revenue on WP7 than Android. If things were not looking good enough as it was, after the Nokia announcement, there was a huge spike in the number of WP7 projects started so it is only getting better and better for WP7. Read it an weep.
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RE: A Windows 8 tablet in Q1 2012? Hmmm...
cosuna Updated - 17th Feb 2011
@Mythos7 : Okey. Mindshare equals how much $$$.

If by Mindshare you mean millions of dollars SPENT on advertising then, yes, they have a third slot. More a dot-com bubble slot, just like Boo.com, startups.com, GovWorks.com, etc.
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RE: A Windows 8 tablet in Q1 2012? Hmmm...
x I'm tc Updated - 17th Feb 2011
@Ron Burgundy

It's so funny how right you are. I think that any realistic observer would have to conclude, given MS's still dominant market position, all the cash they take in, their unbelievably massive R&D budget, etc., that they are *still* the best-positioned company to dominate the software market in the next decade.

That said, very few people actually think that's going to happen, because Google (and to a lesser extent Apple) are innovating the bejesus out of them. And there is no sign that it's really changing. They are executing fantastically in their existing markets, but show absolutely no interest in expanding!

Imagine if Gates came back to helm MS, or some other super-competitor. The stock price would skyrocket. As long as this "goon" is in charge, I agree, MS (despite its advantages) is going nowhere.

What great innovator is out there for them to snap up and put in charge?!? Surely there must be someone who can light a fire under their butts. Who designed the Kinect?!? Put him (her?) in charge!
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Wrong, Ballmer never realizes he's an idiot
HollywoodDog 17th Feb 2011
@Ron Burgundy ... he doesn't have to, he's too rich for that.

Note this story is the same as every Microsoft story, with different names.

Apple has had some product or other out for years, Microsoft is talking up a 'response' that's years away on the horizon. Leaked plans suggest, "One of these days, Alice, pow - right in the kisser."

CompetesForSure
with different names.
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RE: A Windows 8 tablet in Q1 2012? Hmmm...
cosuna Updated - 17th Feb 2011
@Ron Burgundy : Microsoft is a very big ship (some have compared it to Titanic, I compare it to the Exxon Valdez ) difficult to steer and even harder to stop and change course.

With that said, legacy (Win32/Office) and non-legacy (.net/WPF/Silverlight/Zune/WP7) fight each other for resources.

BTW. JoelOnSoftware, had this summon up on a very interesting article.

http://www.joelonsoftware.com/articles/APIWar.html
The dream is always far better than the MS delivered reality:-)
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re: the deam
davebarnes 16th Feb 2011
@Richard Flude

I wish that I had the gift to be snarky AND poetic.
The happy was not needed.
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@davebarnes
There were promises made for Vista that still have not been delivered, not even in W7; for example, a new file system. Unfortunately for MS, it has a tendency to over-promise and under-deliver . . . exactly the opposite recipe for appropriate customer service.
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@ptorning. MS didn't promise a new filesystem for Vista. That was something that was suggested for "Longhorn" which was cancelled.
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It's possible that this could be test hardware so that developers can start testing with real hardware. Like the PDC giveaway tablet but on a wider scale.
A product like that may need to be on their launch schedule.
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@joeyw72 - Yeah, that's my take too.

If Microsoft is going to start shipping Windows proper on ARM chips, then the developers writing the apps that they want to see ported to the new platform will need tin to test on. What better than an affordable Tablet from Dell?
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Separate codebases
xp-client 16th Feb 2011
I was under the impression from CES keynote that Windows SoC/ARM will be a 1:1 port of x86 Windows 8. It will be a nightmare to maintain if they split the codebases.
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RE: A Windows 8 tablet in Q1 2012? Hmmm...
Badgered Updated - 17th Feb 2011
@anonymuos

I thought I read somewhere (wish I could remember where now) that W8 was going to be modular. So they wouldn't be splitting code bases as much as not using parts of it that are not needed for a tablet/phone.
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Win 8 is nothing but Win 7 on SoC !
jinishans 16th Feb 2011
It's already been shown in CES 2011, why not they can release it by end of 2011. I believe Win 7 on ARM/SoC is calling Win 8.
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RE: A Windows 8 tablet in Q1 2012? Hmmm...
Techdelirios 17th Feb 2011
@jinishans Yep. I agree. Soc plus some performance tweaks, along with a couple more UI tweaks to make the tablet experience even better. That sounds like win 8. Minor upgrade.
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Contributr
Interesting theory!
Mary Jo Foley 17th Feb 2011
I've never really thought about the possibility that "Win Next" is really Win 7 underneath... Your theory makes a lot of sense. The version they showed at CES wasn't Win 7 on SoC, however; it was an early build of what is believed to be Win 8 (a milestone 1 build)... MJ
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Win7 on SOC?
jk_10 17th Feb 2011
@jinishans
Thank you very much! The trickiest part is SOC, version is not important. If that easy, they wouldn't call it riskiest bet.
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The greater sophistication of tablet OS'es running on ARM or nVidia processors bodes well for people wanting to take tablets seriously as content-creation devices. Their lightness, near-zero footprint (while handheld), presentability, and long battery charge have won me over...but I have yet to be comfortable using one to create a professional document, instead of just looking at one.

I will take a good look at what Honeycomb-optimized apps can do on a Xoom or Galaxy Tab 2. If I'm not sold on them, then I'll just have to wait for this Win8 thing.
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RE: A Windows 8 tablet in Q1 2012? Hmmm...
charlesdjones1 17th Feb 2011
@Tech watcher
I'm pretty sure you can do all that stuff you mentioned now on a Win 7 based Eee Slate, but that's just me. Then when 8 is released, just update your Slate.
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RE: A Windows 8 tablet in Q1 2012? Hmmm...
Tech watcher 18th Feb 2011
@charlesdjones1 Hmm...I wasn't going to consider current Win7 tablets because I already have a Win7 notebook, which is much bigger, heavier and now gets only about 3 hours on each charge.

If this Eee slate is under 2 pounds, has a screen no larger than 10" diagonally, and can run at least 6 hours (comparable to the Galaxy Tab) on a charge, it's certainly worth a look. Hope it's not too expensive, either.
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I still have a hard time imagining a full windows 7 os running on mobile hardware, optimized for it or not. But I will be curious to see what they come up with.
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RE: A Windows 8 tablet in Q1 2012? Hmmm...
Cylon Centurion Updated - 16th Feb 2011
It's needed though. In my eyes, these silly mobile operating systems just aren't cutting it. Handwriting is my killer feature, and so far, it's being ignored. It also has the expandability of a standard PC, I can slide in an SD card, and move data with easy between my other machines. Plus, I don't need to tie myself to my cell phone carrier to use the Internet.

Can't do that at all with any of these other "tablets". They're being held back, I don't know if it is on purpose or what, but these tablets today are very limited and not reaching their full potential. They're jokes of toys.
Android had the potential to take off, but they're just not doing anything with it to make it worthwhile, and Apple.... Is being well, Apple.... "Yeah, we know you want feature X, but just because we can, we'll add it at a later date." Also, we want your iPad, to be dependant on iTunes, and not something more logical, such as removable storage.
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@Cylon Centurion 0005

I do have an iPad, and wouldn't call it a joke or a toy, but rather a 'content appliance'. I think appliance really is the correct word too. I don't have to fuss over it, or think about it much, in the same way I don't fuss over or think about my washing machine. For much of the unwashed masses this may well be as much 'computer' as they really need.

Utter rubbish for content creation of any kind though.

And there is certainly an untapped market for true generalized computing and content-creation devices in tablet form and MS seems like the only one really interested in delivering that. But to date, their offerings were always too big, too light on battery, and WAY too expensive for me to be able to justify it. Technology is helping close that gap. Cheers to them if this is the year.
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@SlithyTove
As long as you call it a big iTouch I agree.....
I have one and end of the day that is all it is.
Sad....
sad
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RE: A Windows 8 tablet in Q1 2012? Hmmm...
John Baxter 16th Feb 2011
Calendar or Fiscal (Dell) 2012? When is Q1 of Dell Fiscal year?
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RE: A Windows 8 tablet in Q1 2012? Hmmm...
Andreas Erson 17th Feb 2011
@John Baxter
Dell Fiscal Q1'2011 is February-April.
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Message has been deleted.
Tim Acheson Updated - 17th Feb 2011
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RE: A Windows 8 tablet in Q1 2012? Hmmm...
charlesdjones1 Updated - 17th Feb 2011
@Tim Acheson
I agree. The decision to hold back updating Win 7 for tablets or putting the Windows Phone 7 software on tablets, instead to go forward with Win 8 working on all systems was a stroke of pure genius. It really makes perfect sense, one OS for all systems, instead of Apples approach with OSX Lion, Leopard, Snow Leopard for laptops.. then on the other spectrum iOS 1, 2, 3, 4.1-10 for tablets... Thats too much confusion. Even still, has anyone been reading about Win 7 on EEE Slate? It's not like Win 7 is all that bad to begin with.
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My 2012 Wishlist
Grayson Peddie Updated - 17th Feb 2011
AMD Fusion Wichita dual-core
2GB DDR3 RAM
128GB SSD (Great for Windows and Ubuntu for dual-booting)
10.1" 16:9 widescreen
SIM slot with support for HSPA+.
720p webcam
No camera in the back of tablet
3-Axis Accelerometer
GPS
Light Sensor
Two USB 3.0 ports
HDMI port
Kickstand
Windows 7 Home Premium (Upgradable to Windows 8, but I doubt Windows 7 supports 3-axis accelerometer)

Can I ask for more? I'll probably be paying about $1,000 for a tablet.

By the way, has anyone kept up the news about Windows 8 Milestone 3?

Oh, and don't forget about a 7000+ mAh battery! happy Sure, that'll thicken the tablet, but no biggie! happy
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Could be awesome... but no.
charlesdjones1 Updated - 17th Feb 2011
Besides the fact that Windows 7 has only been out for just over 18 months... Microsoft has recently just announced Windows 8, but much less even release a beta version for all of us to test. This would mean, within a 10 month timeframe, Msoft would have to release a beta, release a RC, and still release the final version by January 2012? The answer to your question is no, Windows 8 will not be here until late 2012 at the earliest.
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I agree, no way will see Windows 8 in Q1-2012 and while I would love to see Mango by July I highly doubt that one too. Though, I suppose they could also decide to split Mango.
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RE: A Windows 8 tablet in Q1 2012? Hmmm...
homeioy26-24353595963389203614689387349918 10th Nov
qitfmq,good post!

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