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Consumers' interest in Windows tablets plummets, study claims

By | November 29, 2011, 7:21am PST

Summary: Users’ interest in Windows tablets is waning and Microsoft has missed the peak of consumer desire for a Windows 8-based iPad competitor, a new study claims.

Just a couple months after one study claimed the majority of tabet-buying users wanted a device based on Windows, another research outfit is reporting that consumers are sick of waiting for a true iPad competitor from Microsoft.

Consumers’ interest in buying a Windows tablet has plummeted in the past six months, according to a new Forrester Research report on November 29.

“Microsoft has missed the peak of consumer desire for a product they haven’t yet released,” said Forrester in a new blog post.

In Q1 of this year, when Forrester asked consumers considering buying a tablet which operating system they would prefer on the device, 46 percent said Microsoft/Windows. Now that number has now dropped to 25% — a decline Forrester said should be “alarming to Microsoft.”

(click on table above to enlarge)

(Forrester’s latest data comes from recontacting in September 2011 roughly 2,300 U.S. online consumers who are “not opposed”to buying a tablet” as part of its “North American Technographics Telecom And Devices Online Survey.”)

For tablets, though, Windows really isn’t a fast follower. Rather it’s (at best) a fifth-mover after iPad, Android tablets like the Samsung Galaxy Tab, HP’s now-defunct webOS tablet, and the BlackBerry PlayBook tablet,” said Forrester analysts JP Gownder and Sarah Rotman Epps.

“While Windows’ product strategists can learn from these products, other players have come a long way in executing and refining their products — Apple, Samsung, and others have already launched second-generation products and will likely be into their third generation by the time Windows 8 launches,” Gownder and Rotman Epps added.

Microsoft is taking too long to bring a true iPad competitor to market, the analysts said. (Windows 8 tablets are expected to come to market starting in the fall of 2012 by many Microsoft watchers.)

But the slow development and delivery schedule isn’t Microsoft’s only problem, Forrester opined. The analysts also cited the iPad’s move into office productivity, consumer interest in Android tablets and the level of OEM support for Windows tablets as other factors which may be affecting consumer interest.

The Forrester analysts advised Microsoft to differentiate itself from iPads and Android tablets by focusing more on office productivity and gaming.

Forrester has been — and continues to be — fairly bullish about Microsoft’s Windows 8 strategy. But I have to agree with their latest take to at least some degree.

I think Microsoft overestimated how much uptake there would be with Windows 7-based tablets. The Redmondians seemed to believe that business users would prefer the ability to run legacy apps (especially Microsoft Office) would save their bacon and tried to get their sales force to emphasize the enterprise shortcomings (like lack of security) of the iPad when selling against it. Windows 7 wasn’t a touch-centric operating system and Windows tablets to date have been pricey, heavy and lacking good battery life.

Will users be willing to wait until later next year for Windows 8 tablets? Or should (and could) and Microsoft and its PC partners start playing up some of the new tablet form factors coming to market in the coming months as “Windows 8 ready” to grab users who aren’t willing to wait for holiday 2012 for a Windows tablet?

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Mary Jo has covered the tech industry for more than 25 years for a variety of publications and Web sites, and is a frequent guest on radio, TV and podcasts, speaking about all things Microsoft-related. She is the author of Microsoft 2.0: How Microsoft plans to stay relevant in the post-Gates era (John Wiley & Sons, 2008).

Disclosure

Mary-Jo Foley

Freelance journalist/blogger Mary Jo Foley has nothing to disclose. WYSIWYG (what you see is what you get). I do not own Microsoft stock or stock in any of its partners or competitors. I have no business ventures that are sponsored by/funded by Microsoft or any of its partners or competitors.

Biography

Mary-Jo Foley

Mary Jo Foley has covered the tech industry for 25 years for a variety of publications, including ZDNet, eWeek and Baseline. She has kept close tabs on Microsoft strategy, products and technologies for the past 10 years. In the late 1990s, she penned the award-winning "At The Evil Empire" column for ZDNet, and more recently the Microsoft Watch blog for Ziff Davis.

Got a tip? Send her an email with your rants, rumors, tips and tattles. Confidentiality guaranteed.

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RE: Consumers' interest in Windows tablets plummets, study claims
GR8BigCheese 3rd Dec
I think people originally thought: "Gee, Windows. I know how to use Windows with a Start menu etc. I have 100's of Windows programs that I can run on the tablet. Why, it would cost me $15-30 just for an office suite for the iPad."

Then they found out it is a new interface that must be learned and software must be specially developed for a Windows tablet and none of the existing programs would work because it uses a different incompatible CPU. Also, would you spend $400 for an office suite for a tablet? Prospective buyers don't know what will be available and what it would cost.

There won't be much interest until the tablets are available and enough software is announced to see what is actually is.
Windows 8 = failed
@Randalllind

You got it. When people have a choice or feel that they have a choice they don't choose Windows or Microsoft.
@itguy10 i misread that and now I am editing this. oops
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@itguy10
Hey... Microsoft gave us a choice ten years ago. They gave us the Windows tablet amidst much hype and hoopla... and guess what??? The buying public had little interest in it. I know, I actually owned three Windows tablets but I rarely met anyone else who owned one.
Now I own an iPad and it does everything Microsoft's best effort couldn't.
I speak for many people when I say that a Windows 8 tablet offers little more than a big yawn. What good is it? What will it's big advantage be over the little Windows 7 tablet I have that's basically gathering dust?

This is not 2001. It's time to move forward. Windows had it's chance. Time to let the true innovators move us in directions Microsoft failed to see.
@itguy10 Hmmm.... Windows 8 is not even out yet. Where was the choice? I think you missed the part about people simply being tired of waiting for Windows 8 tablets.
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@itguy10 Hmmm.... Windows 8 is not even out yet. Where was the choice?

I think that IS his point. Where is the choice.

I think you missed the part about people simply being tired of waiting for Windows 8 tablets.

And that's supposed to be a good thing? For me, it is. happy
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@Randalllind "... Many people - when they have a choice - don't choose Apple, either. ..."
M.
@Randalllind I don't know about other consumers choice but my favorite tablet http://www.technologyfazer.com/asus-transformer-android-tablet.html
@Randalllind - I would not say "failed" just yet. Microsoft has a history of entering markets late (remember Napster?) and then finding a way to dominate. I'm not saying it will happen here but you never know.
@ryork272
Considering their legal team is about as big as their research team, I wouldn't doubt it.

I also wouldn't doubt they'll be in the DOJ's crosshairs again.
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@ryork272
Perhaps but, their record against Apple in this situation is not pretty.
Zune vs iPod
Windows Phone vs iPhone
Apple has dominated MS in the mobile arena and I don't think the W8 Pad will change that record.
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This story is based on a falacy. They announced that they were on the horizon, interest peaks. Then no new word during dev, interest wanes (as it should) then when they come out, interest will peak again. Unless people are, as I suspect, on a subconcious hate/love/hate/love pattern for MS Operating Systems, then they'll have to release their new version (8) then some refined one (8+).

But having a COMPLETELY FREE (as in speech) tablet to do what I would like would be a dream!
@shane@... I think you are right on the money, Shane. In both cases.

I know folk are having fun MS bashing but its really all about availability. The clue is in the stat that fully one quarter of respondents didn't know what an OS is.

I think the MS haters don't have the numbers outside tech forums so once the product is released and the hype kicks in, the market place will be there. Add to that the tendency of Apple to price at the top end of the market and I think there will be plenty of room.
@ryork272...

Don't forget that after all teh hype and chat, that Android actuallys outsells iOS two to one.

So if MS is no good because Apple "dominate" MS, then is Apple "no good" now too?

The point here is that all these devices appeal to different people so the respective companies can make money. When looking at "how good" a device or tablet ir, the first question is "what do i need to DO with it?" !!

J.
Microsoft has finally gotten around to rounding off the square wheels on its' Windows freight train with the refinements and innovations (???!!!) within Windows 8. I truly believe that companies like Asus & Samsung along with the larger manufacturers will build sleek, slick-looking tablets that deliver on the promise of enhanced functionality & performance; Once a few positive reviews are posted, consumers & enterprise buyers will have much more than a passing curiosity in them.

It's taken the better part of 2 decades for the MS Windows freight train to pick up steam, getting on a track that will actually take users where they want to go and smile upon arrival. Despite countless detractors, the computing world has more than just "gotten by" with Windows- It's been the cornerstone of a digital revolution that has forever changed the way we live and do business. Don't be surprised if the freight train turns into a Bullet Train. Microsoft will by no means go quietly into the digital darkness.
@gcapp99@...

And all it takes is one mishap, and the whole `train` gets derailed.
@gcapp99@...
You're right the MS freight train is finally on a roll....unfortunately there competitors are now traveling by jet!
@gcapp99@... I think you and petermcc are overlooking the big picture here. Sure a lot of consumers have no idea what an operating system is but---on the other hand----they sure know what an ipad is whether they own one or not. One of the problems with MS very delayed entry into the tablet market is the fact that they have lost what some would call the ???fear and familiarity??? factor. For the better part of the past 25 years people bought Windows computers because a) that was pretty much what was available or b) they wanted something they were familiar with and feared trying something else. From the early 90???s until the early to mid 2000???s (following the return of Jobs to Apple) there was no real competition for MS in both the consumer and enterprise sectors (still the case today in enterprise by and large). However, with Apple and various Android tablets getting the jump on MS most potential tablet consumers are aware of the ipad---many probably know someone who has one---some have maybe played around with one at a friend???s or family member???s home and when they decide to buy a tablet in most cases that is what they are going to get. The Fear and Familiarly factor does not come into play. For many people ipad has become synonymous with tablet almost in a generic sense---as for many years Windows PC meant ???computer??? to consumers. I just don???t think MS can leverage their long dominance of the platform this time to succeed in tablets. Plus, most people who own ipads--or some versions of an Android tablet----use it strictly as a secondary, mobile device for browsing, email, looking at photos and videos, etc when they are out somewhere or in bed or wherever; they use their laptop or desktop--be it Windows or OS X or Linux---for processor intensive work and things that require more advanced applications. They don???t need Office and other heavy duty apps that drain battery life and might be more expensive. They use their main computer for those kinds of tasks.
@Randalllind You will be proven wrong. Only the Micr0$uck$ LoseDoze Operating System (O/S) will allow tablets to install the internet and browse the web and point and click and cut and paste and multitask and do all of the things that are so DIFFICULT it outright IMPOSSIBLE to do with any other tablet!
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Master Joe Says...Honestly
MasterJoe 29th Nov
To be honest, I have little interest in a windows 7 tablet. But, give me a windows 8 powered, metro style tablet, with decent hardware, and I'd be first in line.

--Master Joe
@MasterJoe My sentiments exactly Master Joe. I had a convertible with Windows 7 and though it was much better than the Vista predecessor, I still didn't think Win7 was suited to touch. I was one of the advocates for having Windows Phone 7 in a slate but that didn't happen. Windows 8 however is built for touch and I will be second in line after you I suppose for one of those when they come out.
@MasterJoe

You realize, of course, that there will be two Win 8 tablet hardware families. One will include traditional Intel x86 processors and the other will include support for ARM based components.

ARM based laptops will NOT run legacy Window desktop apps. Those applications will have to be rewritten to support ARM based machines. I'm betting the "Redmondians" are hard at work preparing an ARM based MS Office Suite product. If they are not, due to internal MS politics, than MS truly is clueless. I won't adhere to that belief until Win 8 ARM based tablets are released with the absence of an ARM based Office Suite.

The other Win 8 tablets (or Slates) running traditional Intel x86 hardware might suffer from the same battery and weight problems of current Win 7 slates. Additionally, the legacy software has "pull down menus" optimized for mouse input and for a much larger monitor screen size. Those characteristics of legacy software will not be addressed by a Win 8 Metro UI layer.

You must acknowledge that applications MUST be designed for a tablet's small screen size and finger touch gestures as well before a tablet ecosystem can truly prosper.
@MasterJoe

@MasterJoe

Exactly...Win 7 wasn't designed for a tablet so it's not worth comparing to the others at this time. Windows 8 will be a true touch-centric OS that will power a number of different devices. Yes, MS is slow to the tablet market but what they plan to bring is a step beyond anything Apple or Google has on the table. I don't buy into a poll of 2300 people anyways...it's a small sample of users that would barely know the difference between single and two-ply TP. When Win8 hits the shelves it's bold and fresh Metro interface will have the same 2300 people selling their first born to get one!
@rob.sharp@...

*Part* of Windows 8 wilkl be touch-centric (the new Metro UI and parts of the classic shell, such as the explorer with the ribbon), but the rest will still be classic Windows UI (Windows 7 shell being "classic").
*Part* of Windows 8 wilkl be touch-centric (the new Metro UI and parts of the classic shell, such as the explorer with the ribbon), but the rest will still be classic Windows UI (Windows 7 shell being "classic").

Yeah they forgot about that big point. Remember Ballmer introducing the HP Slate two years ago? With Windows 7 as the OS?

EPIC FAIL!

And now the fanboys here have caught on to the truth that Windows 7 wasn't very touch-centric after all.
  • Flagged
@rob.sharp@... I don't put a lot of faith in small sampling surveys either let alone analysts that seem to get things wrong more than right but want makes you think you have any knowledge what so ever about the 2300 surveyed? Is it because they don't agree with you that they must be clueless or do you actually know all 2300 of them? If the metro interface is going to be so bold that they will sell their first born to get one why is it that WP7 isn't doing great? Only time will tell but make statements like yours as if the future is already written just shows your bias, not any actual knowledge.
@MasterJoe I have an HP Touchsmart tm2 running Windows 8 and I don't want to go back to Windows 7. Startup time is 38 seconds with 8 compared to 2.5 minutes with 7. My battery is running around 8 hours. And this is with just the Developers Preview! I love Win8 and if I ever have the need for a tablet (other than the tm2) I would definetly wait for 8
@bvonr@...
2.5 minutes? I have played with many slates...and have NEVER seen anything take that long.
@MasterJoe
Im the opposite. After beta testing the windows 8 developers release and pplaying with WP& you couldnt pay me tio use anything that involves the metro crap. Windows 8 from most of what i am reading from testers is in trouble with the metro UI being a big miss and the removal of the start button being the next biggest mistake. It just takes too long to get around and makes no sense entire metro idea especially for pc and laptops . I do love the full on windows 7 tablets but wish they could get the battery life up.For me android is the only option for tablets and phones. I have 6 different tablets and android just keeps on running. If windows 8 sticks to metro and no start button Its looking more like Ill move to Ubuntu after windows 7 is not supported.
@Fletchguy
I'm sure WinPhone 6.5 users felt the same about Metro on WinPhone 7 at first blush but for anyone who's actually USED it - it's the key differentiator on mobile/tablet devices. It makes the current iPhone/Droid devices look positively....quaint.
@Fletchguy
8 hours is what the most recent slate release has. It's on the Samsung...
@Fletchguy
Isn't it magical how someone who read about something think they are more knowlegeable than someone who actually used said something??? As far as going to U-bugam-2, seems like you are already a linux fan. But, I'll make you a bet that you going to linux will not stop Windows 8 Tablet from becoming successful??!!
@MasterJoe I think the article is hot air. WHEN MS releases the Windows 8 that is aimed at Tablet type devices there will be a huge clamor to get these devices. No doubt. All of the naysayers can sit on the curb and shout independence of the software giant's tentacles but many of them will secretly purchase one and we will not hear a word from them. Until they start bashing the cracks that surface. I have apple and windows based products for the very reasons they were designed without the other's technology. Like em both. Own it!
@MasterJoe Your speaking completely honestly? As long as it has your above listed criteria you are buying? What if it cost 2 or 3 times what other tablets cost? Doesn't affect me one way or another what somebody else uses and to each their own but I don't buy blanket statements like that. I honestly believe that cost is by far the largest factor in the tablets failure up to the release of the iPad.
Yes, it would have been nice if Microsoft really supported tablets today. I remember aving a Compaq Concerto many years ago, probably WFWG days. It worked with a stylus and was great. It was so much nicer than anything else out there, but it didn't get accepted.
A touch screen has been a premium only utilized for Point of Sale systems until now. With a touch screen on a Windows class machine, we start to enter the next era. And that era is also being assisted with Microsoft's redesign of the OS to better support touch, and hopefully applications that better support touch.
I think that it's a lot like the Internet to Microsoft. It's hard to turn the ship, but when it is turned, you better the heck get out of the way.
Not knowing the actualy questions that they survey has (no survey organization has ever slightly interpreted results just to get a headline), my take on the concept is that folks did indeed want Windows based tablets initially because they were familiar with the operation of Windows. The "other OSs" just made the tablets harder to use than they should have been. But as Windows jumps back into the bandwagon, and it Microsoft Marketing doesn't put too high of a price on the product, going back to once, consistent interface across all of your computers will be well welcomed.
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Cannon everywhere
Robert Hahn 29th Nov
    It's hard to turn the ship, but when it is turned, you better the heck get out of the way.

That's true when you're the biggest ship in the ocean. These days, Microsoft is not up against Netscape or Novell. Apple, Google, and Amazon can shoot back. I think the threat from Microsoft exists mostly in the minds of the 'Softies.
@ewoodrick

"It's hard to turn the ship, but when it is turned, you better the heck get out of the way."

When was the last time Microsoft posed such a threat to anyone? For the last decade or more they've been the ones chasing after the competition (reactionary) and many times coming up short (Pocket PC, WinMo, MSN Music, Zunes, WP7).

It's not 1995 anymore, Windows is no longer required computing the way it once was. There were a point where consumers bought-up Windows PCs so they can take work home (compatibility with Office files etc). And that PC was used as the main "family PC" for entertainment/consumption and work. With tablets such as the personal iPad and Kindle Fire now filling that entertainment/consumption role for many at home, the full Windows OS relevance and value will continue to fall. These tablet devices will continue to become more capable devices with each generation. And the price will continue to fall. Add in cloud storage and cloud sharing and cloud syncing between all you devices and computers (ala iOS, still have to work out some bugs) and you wonder how longer can Microsoft hold onto that full WIndows bread n butter in the consumer market.
@dave95.

The last time was with Xbox and Xbox 360.
It took time to get in the console market, and at first xbox sale where low.
The totally dominate the market now.
@SylvainT

"The totally dominate the market now."

When did the US become the entire market? XBox lags horribly in East Asia and Europe. The former has always tended towards native made products and the latter hasn't had a great history with Microsoft. XBox only dominates in the US, and even there not by much. It certainly has a long way to go to touch the domination of the Playstation2, which is one of the major reasons console sales are down in this generation (like Windows XP, consumers found the Playstation2 was good enough).
@DarkPhoenixFF4

The XBox has a significant foothold in Europe and aside from the 'family adoption' fad that was the Wii, it is the PS3 that is having a hard time, not Xbox360 and Kinect (heard of that?). PS2 good enough? Do you live in the Sahara or something? Where do you see PS2 games dominating the shelves? Certainly not in the UK or any country in Europe that I have been to.
@SylvainT According to vgchartz, Wii sales is at 90m, 360 is at 58.7m, PS3 at 56.1m. I'd hardly call that "totally dominating". PS3 is quickly catching up to 360, and PS3 was released a year later than 360. So PS3 is already selling more than 360 per year.

MS just got lucky with 360 because Sony totally screwed it up with PS3 initially, but now it's quickly catching up.
@dave95. Amazing, how you have a different opinion than all the MS fan club members and you get flagged for thinking....Hmnn
DELETED by user.
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@ewoodrick

But, as any ship captain can tell you, all it takes is one well placed torpedo, and you are on the way to the bottom.
@fatman65536 +100!!!
I love my Windows 7 tablet and I love my Windows 8 tablet. I have no interest in buying any other type of tablet. So perhaps this firm asked all the wrong people.
Besides, Microsoft won't be selling a tablet, they will be selling a PC. I fully expect to see form factors that you doc to a keyboard to use as a full laptop and un-dock to use as a tablet. Same OS, same Applications, no compromise. If Microsoft can convince 10% of PC buyers to buy a Windows Tablet/Laptop, they will be right up there with Apple for tablet market share. Of course if that happens, they will just create another category of tablets so to downplay the success.
@rwalrond

And they lived happily ever after, that's how all fairy tales end.
@rwalrond

"If Microsoft can convince 10% of PC buyers to buy a Windows Tablet/Laptop". They've been trying to convince PC buyers to buy a Windows tablet/laptop for a decade and they haven't even approached 1%. Why would you think they could get 10% when they actually have competition for a change?
@rwalrond

You're absolutely right when you say Microsoft won't be selling a tablet, they will be selling a PC.

And that is precisely why they will fail.

The iPad isn't a Mac without a keyboard/mouse. It's something different. Apple has understood what role a tablet plays in people's lives, and delivers a superb solution to fill those needs.

Microsoft (or at least their 'visionary' CEO Ballmer) are simply unable to embrace the fact that Windows (as in PC Windows) will not deliver the experience people want.
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YOU HAVE A WINDOWS 8 TABLET?!...
cosuna Updated - 29th Nov
@rwalrond : either you work at Microsoft or you are delusional.

Windows 8 is not even beta software, less can be added by any OEM without breaching contract.
I think people originally thought: "Gee, Windows. I know how to use Windows with a Start menu etc. I have 100's of Windows programs that I can run on the tablet. Why, it would cost me $15-30 just for an office suite for the iPad."

Then they found out it is a new interface that must be learned and software must be specially developed for a Windows tablet and none of the existing programs would work because it uses a different incompatible CPU. Also, would you spend $400 for an office suite for a tablet? Prospective buyers don't know what will be available and what it would cost.

There won't be much interest until the tablets are available and enough software is announced to see what is actually is.

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