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Survey: Microsoft's Windows Phone 7 a distant third in developer interest

By | April 26, 2011, 6:15am PDT

Summary: Amid “plateauing” interest in Android among mobile developers, as detailed in the latest quarterly survey by Appcelerator and IDC is some mixed news for Windows Phone.

Amid “plateauing” interest in Android among mobile developers, as detailed in the latest quarterly survey by Appcelerator and IDC is some mixed news for Windows Phone.

Among the 2,700-plus developers using the Appcelerator Titanium cross-platform development environment surveyed by the research outfits in mid-April, Microsoft is now considered the distant third horse in the mobile race, trailing Apple and Android, but edging out RIM.

(click on image to enlarge)

Microsoft fell seven points since the last survey, with 29 percent of the developers surveyed saying they are “very interested” in Windows Phone 7. But Blackberry phones dropped eleven points, to 27 percent, in terms of high developer interest during the same period. (Windows 7 tablets don’t even merit a mention in slide above.)

In spite of the potential upside of Microsoft’s partnership with Nokia, Microsoft’s phone platform still faces some major perception barriers with developers, according to the survey results.
(click on image to enlarge)

Microsoft “faces a long road ahead and will be challenged by both market share issues and a time-starved developer base,” the Appcelerator-IDC researchers found. “At this point, developers simply have their hands full with getting mobile projects out on the top two platforms.”

(click on image to enlarge)

The full 17-page Appcelerator survey is downloadable from the Appcelerator site. As a few readers have noted, Appcelerator’s tools do work on Windows PCs, but don’t seem to support Windows Phone on the mobile side. However, because Microsoft is recruiting heavily among Android and Apple developers for its phone platform, I still consider the survey results worth writing about.

Update: An interesting Nokia-related aside: Nokia currently looks to be one of the most active contributors to the Android code base.

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Mary Jo has covered the tech industry for more than 25 years for a variety of publications and Web sites, and is a frequent guest on radio, TV and podcasts, speaking about all things Microsoft-related. She is the author of Microsoft 2.0: How Microsoft plans to stay relevant in the post-Gates era (John Wiley & Sons, 2008).

Disclosure

Mary-Jo Foley

Freelance journalist/blogger Mary Jo Foley has nothing to disclose. WYSIWYG (what you see is what you get). I do not own Microsoft stock or stock in any of its partners or competitors. I have no business ventures that are sponsored by/funded by Microsoft or any of its partners or competitors.

Biography

Mary-Jo Foley

Mary Jo Foley has covered the tech industry for 25 years for a variety of publications, including ZDNet, eWeek and Baseline. She has kept close tabs on Microsoft strategy, products and technologies for the past 10 years. In the late 1990s, she penned the award-winning "At The Evil Empire" column for ZDNet, and more recently the Microsoft Watch blog for Ziff Davis.

Got a tip? Send her an email with your rants, rumors, tips and tattles. Confidentiality guaranteed.

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RE: Survey: Microsoft's Windows Phone 7 a distant third in developer interest
tomlin21-24319035676893835085146735905770 11th Oct
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You should mention that this is a special class of developers using a specific cross platform tool. Microsoft also has a very large army of .NET developers targeting WP7 and they, as evidenced by the rapidly expanding marketplace, seem happy.
@Skippy99 - No, developers are not happy.

Windows Phone 7 handsets are not selling. Over the life of a Windows Phone 7 app, most devs won't make enough money to buy a single dinner. They're starving.

Developers initially showed interest in WP7 because of all the Microsoft hype. Now the reality is setting in, that the Windows Phone platform is not working.
@zndac

And you know that, because...? I am a developer of WP7, I have different story.
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Will Farrell Updated - 26th Apr 2011
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Will Farrell Updated - 26th Apr 2011
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@JK_10...

I agree, the prediction that zndac seems short on detail, we really don't know what the Windows Phone 7 numbers are "in the wild". I'm curious for some more detail on your take though, as regards "your different story".

Are you finding it easy to make money on Windows Phone 7 Apps (When I say easy, I'm assuming quality apps, not the bazillion odd flatulence apps available on other platforms). To wit: If you are a good programmer, is there a lot of money to be made *today* developing for Windows Phone 7, in your experience?

Kindest Regards,

Hans
@zndac

I think you seriously missunderstand .net developers. Every single one of them became a wp7 developer that can churn apps in a fraction of the time it takes to do in iOS and android because of the better tools and because it is all buit in the familiar .net framework. So they are happy. What's holding back the platform is bad marketing and lack of the api's that mango will bring, such as sockets.

yet android and iOS are simply mature OSs which will not really do any ground breaking work any longer and are in a state similar to windows and mac OSX. They evolved all they can and can do no more other than wait for hardware to catch up.

You also missundersand iOS and android developers. Most are startving anyways because it is nearly impossible to compete against all the cheap shops in india cranking out apps. So if you want to make money, the platform is secondary to luck and a good idea. In fact, WP7 is probably more profitable to starting developers because if you have a good app, you're in it early and can build your user base and rating as well as word of mouth before the flood of developers drown whatever good apps are out there in a sea of trash...like the IOS android markets.
@zndac

Now that MS is involved the phone wars have just begun.
The only appeal that Win 7 phone apps have for developers is that they would not have many users to support.
@john_gillespie. I am typing this from my MacBook Pro, with MonoTouch and XCode open beneath building a pretty substantial app.

To say that Apple's environment is FAR more (and unnecessarily) complex than Windows' is a major understatement.

Having written apps for UNIX, DOS, Windows (Win16, Win32, .NET), Windows Mobile (C++/Win32), Windows Phone (C#/Windows Phone OS), iPad/iPhone (C#/MonoTouch and C++/XCode), I can guarantee you that NOTHING comes close to being as productive and well supported as writing .NET code for Windows or Windows Phone. Period.

The Windows Phone market is currently in its infancy (heck, it's only been available for 6 months), but within a couple of years, what it'll evolve into will be a major force spanning phone, tablet, PC and server. I can't wait so I can stop fighting with Apple's schizophrenic API's.
Love what you're doing here.
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@Skippy99
All the platforms have their sdks, ides, and experienced developers.

If I were to challenge the interpretation of these results, it would be regarding a question that is begged, that developer interest correlates to platform uptake.

Besides a mobile app of any serious utility relies on the network in a significant way, and the protocols and consumption memes are cross-platform. To put it more succinctly and without buzzwords, your tablet doesn't (and shouldn't) care if the server is running Windows, Linux, or BSD. This leads very naturally to a clear division of concerns in the apps, which promotes portability. Indeed, the NetBSD people always said by having a diversified target of processors, the code gets better.

Also, how many developers creating how many apps makes a platform viable? The more killer apps, the fewer developers. There's also something intriguing about the way mobile apps are an order of magnitude cheaper than desktop apps pre-2008. A developer needs an order of magnitude higher volume to get the same revenue. This would lead to development first for well-populated platforms and then porting if success allows.

That said, a fair amount of folks did well targeting the Apple desktop platform, despite being no better than 5-7% of the desktop population. If you figure out what people want and need and the way they prefer to do it, you can make a living.

Now, that update note regarding Nokia: that's interesting and I wonder if the Deal will affect that.
@Skippy99: ... mean much.
@Hans I am not supposed to share specifics. There are big differences between each one. I feel it is very inline or better with/than other platforms at the same stage. The future of WP7 is much brighter than Android or IPhone, IMHO. I wouldn't surprised if Wp7 take #1 in market share next year. Well, if you believe in analysts, don't trust me.
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@jk_10
anono 26th Apr 2011
"IMHO. I wouldn't surprised if Wp7 take #1 in market share next year."

There are a lot of dilutional fanboys in this forum, but with that comment you might have made the top of the list.
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Upside potential
symbolset 26th Apr 2011
@jk_10 When you're in the gutter, there's nowhere to go but up. Here, have a look at some facebook usage stats: http://j.mp/gl6Fom

WP7 is down to 0.7% on row 117. That's not setting the world on fire.
@jk_10 WP7 almost certainly won't be #1 in a year, but Microsoft has a real shot within 2-3 years. Those who always show up here arguing that WP7 has no chance generally seem to have little experience with the platform. People who actually use WP7 tend to be happy with it, and developers tend to agree that it's easy to create apps for.
@Skippy99

Yep never heard of this so-called cross-platform environment. Why would anyone use inferior tools to develop for WP7? We used the XNA framework for our WP7 game and others are using Silverlight.

This sounds just like another self-promotion gimmik. Next time Mary, perhaps we could see a survey from actual WP7 developers wink
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The survey seems almost meaningless
P. Douglas Updated - 26th Apr 2011
I'd be surprised if the survey covers as much 1 - 5% of WP7 developers - using the Appcelerator product. (I've never hear of the product before.) Why do bloggers ignore the accelerating developer sign up rate for the WP7 AppHub, and the accelerating rate of apps entering the market, etc.; and instead look at some obscure statistics about non-typical WP7 developers, which has negligible impact on the overall marketplace? This kind of coverage by bloggers is getting so old.
@P. Douglas

Douglas, because they are iNaive. It really is getting old... And there is a huge double standard.
They will see when in a few years, Microsoft will own this market.
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@mikroland
anono 26th Apr 2011
"Microsoft will own this market."

A decade and counting when will MS own the market? It used to be that Apple would come up with a new idea for its premium products and MS would copy it for the main stream market. Now Apple is looking more and more attractive to the mainstream market and Google appears to copying Apple a lot faster than MS so I can't see much room for MS and their market share after 10 years reflects that.
Very misleading article.

"As a few readers have noted, Appcelerators tools...don't seem to support Windows Phone on the mobile side."

Perhaps you should mention this at the top of your article. I agree that it's worth writing about, but you can't generalize the entirety of app developers based upon one group that doesn't yet have support for Windows Mobile.

The findings of this one group don't match up with the reality that Windows Phone's app store seems to be growing faster than anything I've seen before. The difference between Windows Phone Marketplace and BlackBerry App World is much more dramatic than this chart/article would lead you to believe.
@cool8man
Maybe that's why they were asking, to see if there's a market for their products.

Everyone is pointing out the bias in the population. Fine. So you ask today and you ask again later and watch the trend lines.

But, all you Microsoft fans would have jumped up and down with loud huzzahs if your platform had beaten iOS and Android among iOS and Android developers, right? Of course you would.

So why treat this as the last word? It's of some interest. It's a fact. File it away. Put other facts in the file and develop a conclusion. Eat, drink, and be merry, for tomorrow we opine.
@DannyO_0x98 Dude, AppCelerator does not support Windows Phone 7. That one fact pretty much makes this entire article irrelevant and useless. If AppCelerator doesn't support Windows Phone 7 development at all, how can it comment on what developer interest is?

The fact that WP7 market place is growing faster than iOS and Android ever did, in a much more competitive market place, proves that there is a lot of interest in the WP7 platforms.
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mikroland Updated - 26th Apr 2011
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OffsideInVancouver Updated - 26th Apr 2011
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itguy08 Updated - 26th Apr 2011
@itguy08 I dunno, man. When I talk to people using VS 2010 for Windows Phone, they're way more interested in developing for WP7 than Android or iOS.
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mikroland Updated - 26th Apr 2011
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Will Farrell Updated - 26th Apr 2011
ladys leaving the ballet to see how many are ultimate cage fighting fans. The reason for the drop is probably because the few appcelerator users who were interested in WP already dropped appcelerator...
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@Johnny Vegas
anono 26th Apr 2011
Or maybe developers are concerned by Microsoft's lack transparency about the number of current WP7 users. After all that's ultimately where the money is going to come from although I have heard rumors about MS trying to pay developers, but not sure how well that would work.
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Duh.
I like coffee. 26th Apr 2011
You survey devs who are using a tool primarily used for Android and iOS development and discovered most of them were more interested in developing for Android and iOS? Whoda thunk?
@I like coffee.

People are interested in generating negative and false news about WP7. Starting from thestreet.com's WP7 first day sales. How on earth those people can get the first day sales on the second day? Microsoft wouldn't know at the time. And they said first day: 40K sold on first day, and they said that was major disappointment. To remind everyone, 40K for the day is like 18% of market share if it lasts. If that's bad, what they call the android first day, major disaster? They never say that.

Speaking of developer interest, I am WP7 developer myself, I see a lot of interest, and growing fast. Just look number of application published each week. Now 1000 new apps published about a week. comparing to 3~4 weeks last year end. It can easily reach 50K at the end of the year.

Again, I still think WP7 will reach 10% market share by 2012 without Nokia. It should reach 30%+ by 2013. It stands at 4~5% market share right. How do I know? a logic reasoning. This is more accurate than what the experts say.
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@jk_10
anono Updated - 26th Apr 2011
"To remind everyone, 40K for the day is like 18% of market share if it lasts."

Apple sold 18.65 million iphones this quarter and they have about 25% of the market share in smart phones. So the number of smart phones sold on average this quarter is about 829k. 40k is less than 5% of that not 18%. In other words, on opening day MS had sales of about 5% of the market.

Considering it's MS, I would have been impressed by a continuous 5% sale except MS told us that they sold about 1.5 million licences in the first 3 months which works out to be about 17k a day. And that's just licence sales; obviously sales to actual customers are lower. In other words, even if you count sales to manufacturers as sales then MS has about 2% of the market share.

Considering in one of your above comments you said you wouldn't be surprised to see MS #1 in the market next year, I shouldn't be surprised.
@anono

the conext of talking is in the US. thestreet.com made that news on Nov. 9, second day of US launch. They said WP7 sold 40K on launch day. First of all, their number is fictional, there isn't a possible way for them (even mcirosoft) to know on the second day.

In January, NPD (might be IDC, I can check) released smartphone market share in US for the Q4 of 2011. WP7 (not including WinMO) had a marketshare of about 2%. We do know that Q4 has 13 weeks, and WP7 only available for 7 weeks in the quarter. NPD didn't make that explicit, only one reporter from Cnet pointed that out. You could take a guess what the real number would be.

I said, I take a logical reasoning, unless there is signs that WP7 sales has since slowed (disregard seaoning slowness in Q1, which is true for everyone), i have reason to believe that WP7 is keeping about 4~5% market share. Signs I have seen is WinMo and WP7 combine market share has been slipping since start of WP7, the trend has stalled. That's a strong indicator that WP7 is making up WinMo's loss. I have reason to believe WP7's market share is improving. However, it is still my strong believe, WP7 is hovering at 4~5% market share.

Why I say, it will reach 10% by the year end? I don't know, not even the God. But there are undeniable reasons make me believe that. 1) A Wave of new devices will come this fall, that will make current WP7 super cheap. This is one big reason. 2) Verizon. I don't need say too much. 3) WP7.5 update will generate updated reviews. That should be a lot better than before. 4) WP7 is a better platform all around if feature complete. I don't think there is much to complain about after 7.5.

Why I say WP7 will be #1 next year? Nokia and Windows 8.
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2-3 years will be critical for MS.
voltrarian Updated - 26th Apr 2011
If low power, low cost, high graphics CPUs and the rest of the hardware components follow (including battery tech), miniaturized PC's could allow Windows OS to compete again in the hand held device market.

It may not mean that MS would have to do a rush job to release a completely new (ie: consumer alienating) OS to market. Perhaps it could mean that MS releases a highly polished, a _truly_ thoughtfully designed UI (which would be a radical culture change for MS) skin over windows 7, coherently & syncretically optimized for hand held devices.

But of course, that would mean that MS would have to adhere to extremely high standards of polish, user care and consideration (which means keeping the usual OS annoyances & bloat to an extreme minimum).
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Target them all with HTML5
Stephen.Smith@... 26th Apr 2011
Many developers are targeting them all with HTML5. If they need something on an app store then they wrap it in an app like PhoneGap. Use of proprietary SDKs isn't required anymore.
The reality in device uptake is that many smartphone owners are locked into two year contract cycles; I still have almost a year to run on my iPhone 3GS. After a complete cycle, during which we will have had the Windows Phone 7.5 update, I think we'll have a better picture of the landscape.

That said, I do wish Microsoft would get a grip on their advertising, and target ads pushing Xbox Live at different times and on different channels to the ones pushing Microsoft Office.
That Windows Phone is third behind two of the most popular veteran platforms, and ahead of the other veteran platforms, is actually good especially coupled with the fact that the Windows Phone Marketplace now has roughly 15K apps in six months time. Once Mango is released and Nokia devices hit the shelves, developer interest and sales will surely grow.
The truth is that, since the turn of this century, Microsoft has had a tendency to enter the market at the point where the window is closed, locked, and has security window bars up... Android and Apple have captured it, it is an uphill battle for anybody else.
@mikroland

Let me give you an analogy...

Microsoft is the Turtle
Apple is the Hare
Google is the Wolf in Sheep's Clothing
@kotireddy
iPhone 5 baby!!!!!! that's worth waiting for!!
@Hasam1991 Because?
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.NET Developers Are Indeed Migrating Elsewhere
csgallagher@... 26th Apr 2011
Both my parftner and I are doing whatever we can as fast as we can to get new skills: ON OTHER PLATFORMS.

It's called: BEING EMPLOYED AND WE CAN"T WAIT NO STINKING THREE MORE YEARS
@csgallagher@...
Used to develop on .Net platform for about 4 years. Last year I started developing iPhone apps, took me about 3 weeks to learn it. No big deal, if you understand OO programming concepts, it is the same idea as any other language. It is true that MS tools are more rich (and complex), Xcode is pretty good and gets the job done in a straight forward way... I recommend a good book to get you started: David Chisnall - Cocoa Programming
@prof123
Oh... Then i wonder why there are developers who has developed 15k+ apps on a very fresh phone instead of developing apps on a straight forward framework.

It might be because they do not know OO programming concepts, i guess...
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Titanium
jgoode@... 26th Apr 2011
I took the survey and it was meant to gauge interest in adding WP7 to their framework. It is true that there are not likely many WP7 programmers who know or use Titanium. However, to have that many iOS/Android show any interest in WP7 development is interesting.
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RE: Survey: Microsoft's Windows Phone 7 a distant third in developer interest
tomlin21-24319035676893835085146735905770 11th Oct
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