The Windows Mobile-Windows continuum: The plot thickens
Summary: One of the most interesting question-and-answer exchanges between Wall Street analysts attending Microsoft's Financial Analyst Meeting (FAM) and company execs has been around the convergence/divergence between mobile devices and PCs.
One of the most interesting question-and-answer exchanges between Wall Street analysts attending Microsoft's Financial Analyst Meeting (FAM) and company execs has been around the convergence/divergence between mobile devices and PCs.
Wall Street analysts attending the July 30 confab had a number of questions about how Microsoft intends to address the new CPU and GPU architectures that are emerging in all kinds of mobile devices, ranging from phones to netbooks.
Up until now, Microsoft has maintained a clear division. Mobile phones run Windows CE/Windows Compact at the base level (with the Windows Mobile environment layered on top). PCs run Windows.
But the Windows and CE lines have been starting to blur -- and the effects are being felt not just by Microsoft, but by its competitors, as well. (Gizmodo reported recently that there has been talk that Google's Chrome OS may end up on mobile phones and not just netbooks. And Google's Android is being ported to both phones and PCs, as well.)
As one Wall Street analyst attending Microsoft's FAM noted, Intel is working on new lower-power x86 processors that could find their way into phones and other consumer-electronics devices.
Chief Research and Strategy Officer Craig Mundie had a ready response. He noted that Microsoft has been supporting for years a variety of processors with Windows CE and Windows Mobile, "so the technical transfer is not a big leap for us."
"For us, the X86 environment is one that we know well and have an easy time supporting. Clearly, adapting that to the environment that we have in the embedded and the phone business would take some work. But it is not a monumental amount of work as it would be if it was an architecture that the company didn't already have a heavy investment on. So I think our view and (Entertainment and Devices President) Robbie and the business team will have to make the call as to how we see that evolving."
Bach, for his part, hedged a bit more.
"If they (new x86 processors) go into phones, there is probably work for us to do. but we have a pretty good handle on the X86 environment and we can make a business decision based on volume and our operator customers are looking for."
Interestingly, no one asked Microsoft during the FAM Q&A about how, when and whether it might make a version of Windows available on ARM processors. Microsoft has said that Windows 7 has not (yet) been ported to ARM processors, which some company watchers have viewed as leaving the door wide open for Linux on ARM netbooks. Windows Compact, however, does work on ARM processors.
In response to another analyst question about Microsoft's mobile-OS plans, Bach did note that the Windows and Windows Mobile team are working more closely together.
"Today we actually already share components between what we do in the Windows space and the Windows Mobile space. You are going to see more of that share continue over time and you will see us accelerate it and do more," Bach told analysts. "Understand historically that was tough because the underlying architectures were actually quite different. But to Craig (Mundie)'s point about GPUs and CPUs and the underlying chip architecture, as those get more similar, it absolutely makes it easier to share more. You will see that whether it is work in the browser, on development tools, a number of other places where we will be able to do more of that sharing. That's baked into our plan."
Reading between the Q&A lines, do you foresee Microsoft releasing Windows (and not just new versions of CE/Windows Mobile) for future smart phones?
More from the analyst meeting:
- Ballmer: Ultra-thin PCs will be the answer to netbooks
- Microsoft's Project Natal for business: In your dreams
- How will Microsoft fix Windows Mobile? The Softies still aren’t saying
- Larry Dignan: Ballmer: He knows when you’re using a Mac
- Ballmer on the Microsoft-Yahoo deal: ‘Nobody gets it’
- Slide of the day: Laptop Hunter ads working?
- Yahoo costs: The slide Microsoft didn’t want you to see
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Talkback
"3 screens and a cloud"
you mean like gmail web client, gmail cellphone client
Some will go this route, but I predict it won't prosper long term.
Yes there are other ways to do it of course...
I speak to many MS developers and most (if not all) are very happy or keen to start Silverlight development if they can; once Mobile supports the same model, it will be very compelling.
Actually, I see this as quite the opposite,
One program for all, not separate versions with conversions.
As for clunkiest, I would disagree, as there have been years of quality apps for both Windows and WM/PPC, and I have had no issues with the mobile OS itself.
Expensive?
No completely the opposite.
The W/SL/RTM way will be a single RIA across all 3 that adapts to resolution from VGAish phone to netbooks to laptops to large screen tvs.
RE: The Windows Mobile-Windows continuum: The plot thickens
I think you'll see something around using Silverlight on the mobile platform. This means across WinPhone, Nokia and others. The same apps will be able to run on the web and OOB (out of browser). I could also imagine seeing some integration with XBOX and the Mesh.
A single platform enables a single appstore. With one appstore feeding the three screens, plus non-Microsoft hardware properties (other phones, Macs etc). Maybe this is what the OneApp moniker trademark will be used for?
RE: The Windows Mobile-Windows continuum: The plot thickens
Something like lite version of desktop Windows(different looks but almost identical possibilities). Kind of complementary system(which would fit well in their strategy).
Making ARM version of desktop Windows 7 would kill WM.
I know you're a fan of the concept of Windows on ARM
Window CE already provides a lot of core services and DX/CE handles the high end graphics. Since Google and Android cannot run any Windows apps either, there's no obvious competitive advantage here to port Windows to ARM.
Add to that the fact that ARM based netbooks are still a theory, not a real device, and given the almost universal rejection of Linux on EXISTING netbooks in favour of Windows, we're left with the question of what marketing advantage ARM netbooks have.
The usual argument is 'lower power CPU so longer battery life' - but that's a weak and suspect argument. First, the CPU isn't really the big power hog in most devices anymore. Remember, the Atom only draws around 12W full on and can drop to 5W. The ARM processor is better, but not THAT much better. Either are swamped by display, memory, storage and other power expenses. There's a reason PDAs and phones have small screens (in terms of resolution and size), limited memory and small storage using Flash/NAND memory- that's where the lion's share of power savings come in.
On top of that, the use pattern for ARM devices tends to be rather different from Windows devices. ARM devices tend to be in sleep most of the time, and are intermittantly wakened to do a simple task, then go right back to sleep. This is why most iPhone apps are 'one-bangers'.
Windows devices tend to be awake longer and doing more complex tasks.
[Sidenote - this is why people who keep trying to argue that a netbook is not a laptop don't get it - they, like Ballmer, see a netbook as a glorified PDA - but the consumers of netbooks see them as cheap, compact *laptops* running Windows and their familar apps. The reality is that netbooks *aren't* underpowered - it runs most people's real world apps just fine as it is.. it's people who have surreal demands and define them as 'minimal' who have driven this argument.]
The short version is - an ARM based netbook doesn't solve any problem that the general public perceives exists and causes all sorts of new ones that makes that platform undesirable by most people.
Microsoft generally doesn't get involved with niche products - it's not cost effective for them to.
The trend is towards cellphones for email and the web
As people use paper far far less, wordprocessors and DTPs are becoming irrelevant.
We still write manuals as documents, but this is plainly doomed long term in favour of wikis which can be far more corroboratively worked on by their nature.
Top end cellphones can already be used to effectively video-edit. I can read long documents on my regular cellphone using gmail.
Apart from tasks like CAD, to me, the writing appears to be on the wall for the desktop/laptop/netbook.
The cellphone market has never been bigger. The internet is now used hugely by cellphones.
Windows mobile has been in this space for ever, but has both failed and lost market share. I think it's unlikely that a company which has failed over a long time with multiple initiatives can turn around this situation. There are simply too many players, and all the players are excellent.
There is already a programming platform common to 4 billion cellphones (MIDP2.0) over which a mass of software is already being sold (including many great 3d games). It's hard to see how Microsoft's strategy of trying to add value by adding proprietary APIs is going to cut it in this market.
word-processors irrelevant.
from now.
Wikis will never replace requirements and design.
"hard to see how Microsoft's strategy ..."
The Xaml/Silverlight/Wpf model will be easier still.
Overall surely you use the api that brings the most value for your scenario and runs on a platform you can target. I think that will be a growing win for Microsoft for both consumer and corporate markets
I agree with many of your points, but ...
ARM chips running at around 1GHz draw AT MOST around 2W - that's 1/6th of the power an Atom currently draws.
In a small device with a small screen, small amount of DRAM, low-end graphics, WiFi, etc., that actually DOES account for a significant amount of batter power.
Of course, in a machine with a bigger screen, more RAM, etc., the % of power drawn by the CPU decreases, but it's still not to be ignored.
In the world of portable devices, every mW matters.
ARM based devices, on the other hand, do present some challenges, primarily around app compat. Little existing software is going to work unaltered. Most games will not run without modification. Drivers? Ouch!
The BEAUTY of Windows being ported to ARM is that it opens up the economics - a sufficiently large potential customer audience that many app, tool, hardware, etc., vendors who will be able in most cases to relatively easily recompile their apps for Windows/ARM.
One of the major things that MS did in Vista and in Win7 was to eliminate and/or segregate the remaining assembly/CPU-specific code. 99% of Windows is now machine agnostic!
Supporting a whole new CPU and machine architecture has its challenges, but it's not something that MS has never done before - they've ported Windows to Alpha, MIPS, PowerPC, Itanium and x64 and have also ported it to ARM once before (in a POC).
In short, if MS thinks there's a big enough market for ARM powered nebooks, laptops and PC's they'll be there.
What I See Is A Total Mess
emperor ain't got no clothes.
What is taken Microsoft so long?
good point
Then we have the Mobile Marketplace for Developers that makes a point about "Marketplace will be pre-installed in every single Windows Mobile 6.5 device" but only has links to Windows Mobile 6 documentation.
What is going on? Could it be that 6.5 is smoke and mirrors and 7 will be the next release? That would certainly make for a news worthy splash of the type Apple are so successful with...
They delayed WM7
Well WM7 was supposed to release this year but since it's not perhaps they made the decision to do a major overhaul.
WM 6.5 to me seems like a minor stop-gap release just to stop the market share bleeding so fast.
Microsoft has the money, research, and smart staff to introduce some innovative technology next year. I hope they do but if they don't they might as well purchase Palm.
Midori Play?
Where is Midori on all of this? Is M$ supposedly
working on something like Midori that's completely
managed code based and Windows rebuilt from the ground
up? Is it possible M$ has moved along with this to the
point that at least WM or W will be supplanted by this
new OS in about 2-3 years? I thought the word was that
WM8 was based on Midori? If so, then how does it
relate to ARM versus x86? Personally, I have to think
that Intel's work on Atom's SoC integration suggests
that we're about 18 months from an x86 chip that comes
very close to equally the low power consumption of ARM
chips.
Midori is not about replacing Windows
Microsoft is not about to rebuild Windows using managed code - that makes no sense.
But having a second environment in which you can run large parts of complex apps (and even OS features) which are verifiably safe would be a VERY welcome thing.
Yeah, I never got that.
They would own WebOS, blam: problem solved.