ie8 fix

What's Microsoft's next billion-dollar business? (Hint: it's not search)

By | August 3, 2009, 12:37pm PDT

Summary: Now that Microsoft’s SharePoint sales have passed the $1 billion barrier (they were $1.3 billion for fiscal 2009, which ended for Microsoft on June 30), what’s Microsoft’s next big thing? What products are CEO Steve Ballmer & Co. betting on to become the next big, near-term hits?

While many company watchers continue to fret over what Microsoft will and won’t do to make money in the search/online advertising space, there are other less sexy Microsoft business units plodding successfully along with relatively little public notice.

Until fairly recently, SharePoint was one of those businesses. But now that Microsoft’s SharePoint sales have passed the $1 billion barrier (they were $1.3 billion for fiscal 2009, which ended for Microsoft on June 30), what’s Microsoft’s next big thing? What products is the company betting on to become the next big, near-term hits?

At Microsoft’s Financial Analyst Meeting (FAM) last week, company officials shared a few tidbits about one of those businesses: Microsoft System Center.  System Center encompasses a variety of system-management tools that Microsoft sells to IT professionals who want to manage their Windows — and Linux/Unix — clients, servers, hypervisors and more.

CEO Steve Ballmer told Wall Street analysts that System Center already has passed the billion-dollar mark. It’s growing at a rate of 30 percent year-over-year, according to Microsoft officials.

System Center is one of a handful of server-side product families that Microsoft is planning to push more in its coming fiscal year. (The others: Windows Server 2008 R2, SQL Server 2008 R2, the forthcoming Forefront Protection Suite, SharePoint 2010, Exchange 2010 and Office Communications Server 2010 — about which Microsoft has said very little to date.)

Microsoft officials mentioned in passing last week that System Center Online Desktop Manager (SCODM) is likely to be a big revenue generator for the company in the near-term. The Online Desktop Manager is one of Microsoft’s own hosted “Online” services that it is touting as a way for cash-strapped customers to save money. Microsoft’s pitch: By having Microsoft manage your users’ desktops and provide the anti-malware, desktop configuration, remote assistance and IT asset-management for them, IT pros won’t have to shell out for on-premise products and people to provide these services.

Microsoft SCODM, which is built on top of Silverlight, is in private testing with select customers now and is expected to be released in final form in 2010.

Beyond 2010 — but before search and online advertising move in any noticeable and serious way from being in the red, to in the black — what else is Ballmer betting on?

Microsoft has a number of technologies in what it calls its “business incubation” bullpen. The goals for these technologies are far more modest than $1 billion per year in sales. (Microsoft’s first step is to get them to $150 million to $200 million, partners say.) Some of the technologies in this group: Windows Server High Performance Computing (HPC), Business Productivity Online Suites, Windows Azure, desktop virtualization, storage (Data Protection Manager) and identity services.

In spite of a number of recent articles and blog posts, claimng that Microsoft has “turned the corner” with products like Windows 7 and Bing, there are still a number of Microsoft watchers calling for Balllmer’s resignation. MSNBC is running a story with the bold headline “Investors: Steve Ballmer’s a Failure,” based on a week-old poll of Wall Street Journal readers. (I have a feeling more than a few of these Ballmer-haters are Yahoo shareholders, mad that Ballmer didn’t buy Yahoo outright 18 months ago.)

I’ve been critical of Microsoft execs spreading the company too thin. But you can’t say Ballmer doesn’t have a lot of ideas and that he’s methodically attempting to nurse them along. Ballmer’s first year without Bill Gates involved in day-to-day operations has been one of cleaning up leftover messes, reprioritizing, and, frankly, pushing out more than a few Friends of Bill. I’ll be curious if Ballmer’s “grades” with business-focused investors improve by this time next year….

Do you think Ballmer is making the right technology bets for Microsoft going into 2010? If not, what would you do differently?

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Topics

Mary Jo has covered the tech industry for more than 25 years for a variety of publications and Web sites, and is a frequent guest on radio, TV and podcasts, speaking about all things Microsoft-related. She is the author of Microsoft 2.0: How Microsoft plans to stay relevant in the post-Gates era (John Wiley & Sons, 2008).

Disclosure

Mary-Jo Foley

Freelance journalist/blogger Mary Jo Foley has nothing to disclose. WYSIWYG (what you see is what you get). I do not own Microsoft stock or stock in any of its partners or competitors. I have no business ventures that are sponsored by/funded by Microsoft or any of its partners or competitors.

Biography

Mary-Jo Foley

Mary Jo Foley has covered the tech industry for 25 years for a variety of publications, including ZDNet, eWeek and Baseline. She has kept close tabs on Microsoft strategy, products and technologies for the past 10 years. In the late 1990s, she penned the award-winning "At The Evil Empire" column for ZDNet, and more recently the Microsoft Watch blog for Ziff Davis.

Got a tip? Send her an email with your rants, rumors, tips and tattles. Confidentiality guaranteed.

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RE: What's Microsoft's next billion-dollar business? (Hint: it's not search)
makrekwe85-24353645770225391928980580402533 11th Nov
rnjsfm,good post!
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Typo
Mam00th 3rd Aug 2009
"Business Productivity Online Services, Windows
Azure, desktop virtualization, storage (Data
Protection Manager) and identity services."
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Contributr
thanks
Mary Jo Foley 3rd Aug 2009
The "v" is back in services. (My V key is stuck on my keyboard. I think it's from typing Vista too much... or maybe CRTL-V...) Thanks. MJ
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I think Microsoft is doing the right thing in the Enterprise space. I even think it is a good idea to keep it low-key. In these areas, the open source crowd has no competing products.

The search war, which is far from over, has been engaged in earnest with Bing.

Now it is time for Mobile, particularly with some of Intel's move with the Atom. Microsoft needs more than just an offering in this space, they need a domination product. Multi-tasking, RIM functionality for the enterprise (syncs with Exchange, Live, Gmail, Yahoo, & Lotus Notes, email calendar, journal and todo. Backup and restore, application installer, wifi, and great browsing.
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I completely agree
jjworleyeoe 3rd Aug 2009
M$ has to get Windows Mobile 7 right and out the
door on time with a robust marketplace supporting
mobile dev. In additional to creating a much
better product with faster deliveries, M$ has to
start advertising heavily with some outstanding
angle that puts Apple and to a lesser extent
Google on the defensive.
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dream on
bannedfromzdnetagain Updated - 4th Aug 2009
when will that be? 2011? get used to it, microsoft is in decline (17%
revenue down, 29% profits down, there are much better offerings on
all fronts - remember the hardware may be cheap but microsoft
software is expensive).

take the online division (the fabulous bing): it is having a greater loss
than revenue in the last quarter - imagine that! windows phone is a
bad, derivative and clumsy copy of the iphone and the android os and
not on the market for a few more month. have a look at the windows
mobile demo here: http://blip.tv/file/2430145 it is emberassing.

i always knew that they have no taste and no pride. and they have no
shame eighter. they copy, copy, copy. and they copy bad. it will even
have multitouch somewhere in the future, "when we have worked with
our hardware partners."

you better face the truth. the dark age of computing will soon be over.
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Unless they used a time machine, I can't imagine how this could possibly be the case. They started making phones out of the Pocket PC before iPhone was even a gleam in Steve Jobs's eye.

If you mean they appropriated interface elements, sure -- but no more than android and the newer touch Blackberries have. That's just responding to the market. Apple, on the other hand didn't invent the multibutton mouse, so they still won't ship notebooks with a second freaking button.

The real problem with WinMo is that there are elements (especially in the UI) that are too dated, not that it's a Johnny-come-lately knockoff. WM7 has taken way to long to respond to the market -- we'll have to wait and see what happens when it arrives.
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I would emphasize convergence
zdnet-gregc 4th Aug 2009
For instance, a consumer version of Microsoft's Unified Communication system for the enterprise springs to mind. It's a great system and could be deployed on windows mobile. Let customers receive incoming calls for free and charge them for outgoing calls.

I'm already approximating this with Google Voice and SIP but its a bit clunky. One of Microsoft's big advantages is the incredible ecosystem that's built up around windows. If Microsoft offered something like this to consumers, all sorts of players would be dying to help them along with e.g. USB headsets designed specifically for Windows Unified Messaging and all sorts of other bells and whistles.



BTW, there are no physical buttons whatsoever on MacBooks now happy

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Follow the link
Graham Ellison 4th Aug 2009
If you follow elllroy's link, you'll see what he meant.

Windows Phone is a straight rip-off of the iPhone. Any argument is
pointless. Microsoft is clearly incapable of designing anything original.

And what are you talking about with the "the multibutton mouse, so they
still won't ship notebooks with a second freaking button."?

I'm using an Apple mouse with FOUR programmable buttons and a scroll
button. It's by far the best mouse I've ever owned.

Plus, Apple MacBook Pros all have a multi-functional, programmable pad
that allows you to click in a much more intuitive manner than any
windows box with its nasty clunky buttons, extra switches, useless LEDs
and hideous stickers.

Check your facts please.

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In elllroy's link where they are demoing the
"New" (copied) MS Mobile OS, they incorporated
Apple's patented technologies (swipe and
flick)(as well as coppied almost everything they
could)... Apple owns those gestures, so MS is
about to either pay through the nose and/or
change the UI. Overall, yes, it is a total rip
off of the iPhone. And I'm thinking that Apple
might just own them on Surface as well.
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Interesting
wanorris 4th Aug 2009
Microsoft's been working on Surface for years -- since before Apple acquired the company they got multitouch from. They probably have a boatload of multitouch patents as well, so it's possible that the two companies quietly cross-licensed with each other.
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I worded it pretty carefully.
wanorris 4th Aug 2009
The Mighty Mouse I used a couple of years ago was pretty good, though I thought the squeeze thing was a little weird.

Last I checked, the single button that ships on a MacBook Pro or iBook still doesn't right-click. Yeah, you can get an external mouse, but a lot of people use notebook computers in places and ways where an external pointing device is a pain.

And yeah, you can do all sorts of stuff with the multitouch trackpad. It's nifty, and I'm glad the OEM trackpad manufacturers have all picked that feature up.

But there's still no reason for Apple to ship notebooks without at least a second button on the trackpad other than not-invented-here syndrome.
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It's called put two fingers on the trackpad near the bottom and
press down.
You've just right-clicked.
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Ignorance is bliss in the Microsoft world.
No More Microsoft Software Ever! 4th Aug 2009
Use TWO fingers on the Apple trackpad - that's a double click.

Just like use TWO fingers at once to SCROLL the page. One finger just moves the cursor down.

Guess you can't write about what you don't know. And Microsoft Windows users only know what Microsoft tells them!
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right clicking with the touchpad
wanorris 4th Aug 2009
Will it work under Linux and Windows when I triple boot? If not, it does me no good.
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right clicking...
vulpine@... 4th Aug 2009
In Boot Camp, it probably would. It works well enough in Windows
Vista.
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Nice
wanorris 4th Aug 2009
I didn't know it would work under other OS's -- I figured it was a Mac software thing.

I don't really have much reason to use OS X, but I'll keep that in mind next time I shop for a high-end notebook, because Apple makes good hardware. Usually I prefer ThinkPads, but Apple hardware is always on the short list.
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Just so you know...
vulpine@... 4th Aug 2009
Boot Camp provides drivers for all the hardware in the 'generic
PC' mode. They're extensive enough that I can use my
bluetooth Apple keyboard in Windows paired to the system as
though it were hard-wired. The display, memory card, front-
side bus, everything is already available. Just follow the simple
instructions and you're there.

Oh, and I absolutely love the instructions for connecting new
hardware to a Mac. With Windows you get instructions like,
"Install drivers before connecting device." With OS X, all you get
is "Simply connect device to your computer." You'll usually get
applications to take full advantage of the device's capabilities,
but guess what, you don't really need them. Install what you
want and ignore the rest.
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Windows Mobile 6.5
wanorris 4th Aug 2009
Windows Phone is a straight rip-off of the iPhone. Any argument is pointless. Microsoft is clearly incapable of designing anything original.

6.5 certainly isn't Microsoft's best effort. It's a quick and dirty hack to try to keep from being completely wiped out in the phone market while everyone waits for WM 7.0, and it contains purely UI changes with no underlying OS enhancements.

Then again, it's worth remembering that Microsoft could thrown a real wrench in the works for the iPhone, had they chosen to. Business users get iPhone synchronization with Exchange because Microsoft let Apple license the technology they were already using in Windows Mobile. And it certainly wasn't because they had to: are Fortune 500 companies really going to migrate away from Exchange servers because Apple didn't make phones that sync properly? Not likely.

Honestly, I've used Windows Mobile through a lot of device generations (I still remember when the first Handheld PCs came out, before Palm). And, other than background tasks, I can't think of a single software feature on my WM phone that's an improvement over the iPhone. (well, maybe Remote Desktop.) So yeah, WM is at a low point.

Then again, the reason I'm going to buy another WM phone in a couple of months is the real advantage over iPhone: choice of hardware. Apple lets you choose how much memory you want, and that's it. But I need a phone with a physical keyboard, and I want one with a removable SD card, so I guess Apple doesn't want to sell me a phone, but Microsoft and HTC do. Sometimes, it's that simple.
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1
johnmullinax 5th Aug 2009
well said on most points (Although I wouldn't cal WM6.5 a hack... more of a "positive UI evolution", if not the complete refresh people are expecting with WM7).
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well
davidhite 4th Aug 2009
Thats like your opinion, man
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wow.
cyberbull Updated - 5th Aug 2009
oh come on graham - even MS's worst product (don't get yourself a headache trying to name it) is infinitly more original in design than this posting of yours. and you're talking about FACTS? all YOU offer is a very biased opinion and the usual pointless killer phrases to avoid any serious argument.

i hope it made you at least feel better wink
  • Flagged
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New and Improved
bigpicture 4th Aug 2009
We are talking about their New and improved version
of Mobile OS you know the one that looks like iPhone
OS. But that iPhone OS lead by a year or two, and
that Stevie made a lot of derogatory remarks about
when it launched. Remember?? The man with the
vision to lead!!!.
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Reality ...
williamacole@... 4th Aug 2009
Although I am not a Microsoft "fan", I am less inclined to write them off because of a bad release. They made a comeback from Windows Me with XP and the rollout of Win7 was like glass. The competition has made them tough as nails and M$ has shown that they can roll with the punches as well as the next guy.

The future is small, portable and everywhere. Whatever M$ can do to conquer that market will be the true test. I think, at this point, anything can happen and counting M$ out is like turning your back on a bull.
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Reality under glass
vulpine@... 4th Aug 2009
"... and the rollout of Win7 was like glass... "

How can you use the past tense for something that hasn't been
released yet? Yes, I know you're probably using a 'release
candidate,' but that doesn't mean the version you're using is
the one that finally gets sold. Odds are that they'll manage to
screw something up with the final product, they have with every
single version of Windows so far. That doesn't mean Win7 won't
be better, I expect it will; what it does mean is that glass is
fragile and this rollout could still shatter.

We don't know where the future will be. I don't deny that a lot
of people want tiny toys that they can carry anywhere. But in
my case, not only do I want a big screen I can see from 2 feet
away, but I also want to have more than one available at a time
so I can multitask properly or have my controls on one screen
while my image that I'm working with is on another, larger
screen. There are things a portable computer just can't do well,
if at all.

Is Microsoft out? No, not yet. But they're beginning to fade,
and if they don't do something fast, that fade will continue to
accelerate until they disappear. We've seen what happened
when Apple pushed Steve Jobs out of the top chair, it nearly
collapsed from incompetent management. It looks like
Microsoft may be headed the same direction without Bill Gates.
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Huh?
johnmullinax 5th Aug 2009
Right now I'm running a Sony VAIO laptop with 13 inch screen, and simultaneously a 24 inch LG monitor, as well. My portable computer is doing it just fine. Even running max resolution in both cases, with no hiccups at all.
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That's funny
Joeman57 6th Aug 2009
MS fading? Dream on! It's not even close to starting a fade.
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Another problem Microsoft has - too many fanbois and shills! (NT)
No More Microsoft Software Ever! 21st Aug 2009
NT
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Problem is that Microsoft has relied on many years (3 releases) to get it.
No More Microsoft Software Ever! Updated - 21st Aug 2009
They have failed miserably with Windows Mobile (Win CE) and continue to fail with the major OS (Win 7).

Microsoft just does NOT have the room they once had to 'give it the college try, again, and again!'. Microsoft no longer has the advantage of three versions. They have to get it right the first time. Something Microsoft CAN NOT DO.

Microsoft - doomed to try three times and fail three times!
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MS is in trouble..
prof123 Updated - 3rd Aug 2009
The business model is changing rapidly. Shrink
wrapped software is out, there is more and more web
based apps, mainly in large corporations. Cloud
computing is around the corner. MS may be a
major player in cloud computing, however, their
revenues will fall because there will not be a need to
get 10,000 licenses for MS Office at $400 each. The
best indicator is MS Office for Web which is clearly an
Office suite killer, forced on them by Google.

Price of netbooks is falling to $200 so MS cannot
charge $50 for a Windows license, they may have to
settle for $10 or $15. This will hit the bottom line.

MS has never been big on innovation so I can't see
anything too positive in the future. Their mobile OS
sucks, they have been at it for over 10 years and still
can't get it right. I would short MS stock.
Innovation may entice consumers, but solid workable products keep businesses happy and MS has a significant business revenue that really mitigates against the so-called catrastrophic situation you think MS is in.

As for netbooks, the trend has been to move towards the larger (and more expensive) ones, allowing MS larger profit margins. Really, netbooks have NOT turned out to be the Linux champion and MS killer that many might have thought they would be. Basically, people want laptops, but were balking at the premium prices being charged for the smaller form factors. Now that they are going to their real marketplace position, they ARE getting back to the profitable OS space traditionally filled by MS.

I think MS basically knows its customer base needs, and just needed to ride out the temporary distraction of consumers. That Linux failed (a real failure, as opposed to Vista) to meet that need in what appeared to be its sweet-spot shows that it has a long way to go before it can capture the consumer imagination.

But, that MS, with solid work, can turnaround its credibility in the OS space with Win 7, shows that Linux has a chance. I think the real problem with Linux is that its proponents generally don't think it needs to have that solid work done (especially in the marketing space).
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I disagree
prof123 Updated - 3rd Aug 2009
You say innovation is not important... that is only true
if you are a monopoly without any competition. This
may have been true but no longer. MS two main
revenue streams are under attack - OS and Office. The
reason is not Linux but the web. Enterprises are
building web based apps whenever possible. Cloud
computing is another factor that makes Windows less
important so an enterprise will be in a position to
reduce the number of Windows and Office licenses.
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MS has lots of enterprise products
Patanjali 3rd Aug 2009
I know you would like to believe that MS is about to die from wounds due its 'rapidly dwindling' product revenues, but I think you are delusional.

MS may have taken a 17% revenue hit over the last year, but does it look like it is hiding in a corner to lick its wounds? No, it is fighting. No Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing for them.

I think many like you think that MS is just about a couple of products and that's it.

MS IS an infrastructure building company and KNOWS how to build products that supports business processes. Changes in business processes open up other opportunities for alternate infrastructures, something for which MS spends a lot on R&D. Windows and Office are infrastructure items, but hardly MSs only offerings.

I seems you have an emotional dependency upon MSs failure, but I would suggest you find another habit and kick this one.
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RE: MS has lots of enterprise products...
broertjie@... 4th Aug 2009
Of which very few work without constant MAINTENANCE
Of Which ALL are EXPENSIVE
OF WHICH ALL FAIL MISERABLY AND SPECTACULARLY
FOR WHICH I AM GRATEFUL AS THEIR STUPID PRODUCTS KEEP ME EMPLOYED.....By the way in case you were wondering what the word infrastructure means

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infrastructure

It seems that you have an emotional dependency on glorifying the company in the history of IT that has NEVER had an ORIGINAL IDEA on it's own and frankly make really crap copies of other peoples ideas and still is the ONLY FRIGGIN company who gets away with making people pay for their miserable defective products with a promise of 'fixing it later' and in the process of doing so enforces their unscrupulous track record of screwing other vendors' software that knocks the block off anything they can supply....

Next time before you climb on yer high horse BOY make sure you have a clue of what you are talking about....

...now piss off and let the grownups get on with their work

MS - thank you for making my job prospects better and better every year : I REALLY APPRECIATE IT!! xxx
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You must suck
davidhite 4th Aug 2009
as an admin. I have non of these issues
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You off your meds
davidhite 4th Aug 2009
Cause your vein is throbbing on your forehead.
You are getting all emotional about it...want a
tampon?
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lol
stewymelb 5th Aug 2009
Wow, you just shot your argument in the head with an emotional sidearm happy

It's like you are a kitchen cleaner who craps in the kitchen sink.
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And you probably work for them...
Graham Ellison Updated - 4th Aug 2009
If you don't work for them, you probably depend on them for your
income.

Another thing that's clear, is that you understand nothing about
business.

Innovation is the feed-source for research and development. And R&D
is
the hot-bed in which new products are cultivated, which in turn fuels
diversification and expansion.

And finally, since this obviously needed explaining, it's the fact that
no
markets remain stable for long, that means expansion into new
markets is vital
for survival.

Simply relying upon Apple coming up with great ideas, letting them do
all the development, testing the market, and gaining first-mover
advantage, whilst ridiculing them, then copying their ideas exactly 5,
4,
3, 2 years later, is a strategy built on your theory, and doomed to fail.
And we can all see how well it's worked for MS!

Therefore, without innovation/expansion, any company is dead. Ergo,
Microsoft is dead.

May I suggest you take some of your own advice. An emotional
dependence of any kind is clearly unhealthy, but a dependence on a
rotting corpse is some weird branch of necrophilia.
0 Votes
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Do you know the products MS has?
davidhite 4th Aug 2009
No one else is there for them to rip off.
Who did they steal sharepoint from?
Apple has nothing like it. In fact apple servers
are used almost never, maybe in an editing studio,
but smarter IT folk will avoid that crap
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Apple's Xserve servers are in quite a lot of server farms. And now,
Macs are starting to make inroads onto the corporate desktop as
well. Microsoft's market is shrinking, and that shrinkage is
accelerating. If Win7 can't turn that around, it won't be that much
longer until it's no longer the dominant OS vendor and just 'one
of the boys.'
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You said "Ergo", so I know you're smart
johnmullinax 5th Aug 2009
Microsoft is massively innovative across many fronts. Not a perfect measure, but passed IBM in patents recently.

Big picture: Computing is exploding and is happening across an ever-widening array of devices and form factors. Is the cloud emerging? Sure! And Microsoft is building a killer story there with Windows Azure. Azure might lead to lower margins in some cases, in other cases it will open brand new revenue streams that didn't exist before. Most importantly, Windows Azure is an offering that allows Microsoft to earn a bigger slice of the IT industry pie.

At the same time, the software clients are growing like crazy. Trend toward netbooks is tip of the iceburg. Industrial equipment, Cars, cable set top boxes, picture frames, phones, media player, portable game machines, big game machines, etc, etc etc. Microsoft is in all of these client/device platforms in a significant, credible way -- and has a leadership position in some of them. And they are nurturing a partner ecosystem for each of them, as well.

And in the data centers, Microsoft is also continuing to grow. The future is not a world where everything happens on an iphone happy, it's a world where people can make choices about when and where and how computing happens - so the right experiences are available at the right time on the right hardware/software and delivered from the right place. Bottom line: Most people want all this stuff -- various clients, servers, and services in the cloud -- to all work together, and Microsoft is well positioned to help make that happen.
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I agree
davidhite 4th Aug 2009
with you. There is no danger for MS right now.
Linux is a huge desktop failure, it really only
shines in certain environments and none of them
are the consumer market.
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Failures?
Li1t 4th Aug 2009
What kind of successful operating system are you forced to charge /less/ for than the previous version? See, even though you may not consider it a failure, obviously Microsoft has admitted defeat on that one.

As for Linux failing, last time I checked it doubled its market share since Vista came out. Yes, that doesn't mean it has a high market share yet, but nobody expects it to displace the established monopoly just yet.

As for marketing Linux, I have to disagree with you there. There are a lot of people, myself included, who would like to take the plunge completely. They are, however, shackled to windows because they need X or Y windows-only software to do their job, or their new Z hardware isn't supported yet as the manufacturer provided no Linux drivers.

Marketing campaigns are great for popularity, but Linux already has a great reputation. What it doesn't have is market share, and because of that it has less support from hardware and software distributors.

Linux is slowly gaining ground with manufacturers. Once support is there I'm sure a marketing campaign will help to tip the balance, but face it: M$ has a bigger marketing budget than Linux, and probably always will do.

The next big thing that can happen for Linux in the near future is Linus moving the kernel to the GPLv3. If that happened, we'd start to see mergers of the Linux kernel with the OpenSolaris kernel. If the codebases could be merged to some extent, at-least to the point that drivers and so on were compatible, then I think the combined voices of the Linux unwashed masses and the ever-respectable Mr Sun could finally get some real support.
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Linux's failure
LiquidLearner 4th Aug 2009
is the ability to capture the developers that keep you "shackled" to Windows. Until Linux has market share, developers won't be interested. Until developers are interested, Linux won't have market share.

Oh, and people want real support. Ubuntu support makes it more expensive than Windows. And it can't even match its functionality.
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RE:Linux's failure
richdave Updated - 4th Aug 2009
>>>...Oh, and people want real support...

What support? I have used Linux since 1998. I don't nor have I ever needed your stinking support. Most people won't, beyond a distro's forum.
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The reason LInux can not attract and hold developers is simple. They would starve.

The GPL was designed to destroy IP, and this it does. Billions have been dumped into Linux by IPO, by people looking for 'the next Microsoft' and by Microsoft Competitors.

Yet, I cannot find one sustainable IP based business model anywhere near the GPL. And as soon as a company gets near it, they die (e.g. Sun, Wind River). The only business model around GPL is money for services. This means outsourcing. The GPL will destroy any possible back-end revenue royalty stream.

Right now, we are seeing shortfall in Linux investment, for example massive multi-core. Investment is now limited to purchase of walking deadman that can still sell services. This will cost gigabucks. Why should, say Intel, drop that kind of coin into a GPL hole?

Linux might destroy Microsoft (IMHO a very outside possibility) , but it certainly will not replace Microsoft.

Lawrence Ricci
www.EmbeddedInsider.com


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WELL SAID
Aussie_Troll 23rd Aug 2009
Sun and Wind River were huge in their respective fields. And your right the GPL is not effective as a business model. Red Hat is a service company as you pointed out.
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Horribly irresponsible recommendations
sephroth@... 3rd Aug 2009
This is one of the most irresponsible posts I've ever seen on the matter.

You *DO* realize that this article you're responding to goes directly against the "recommendations" you're making, right? That Microsoft's upcoming billion-dollar businesses are the antithesis of "shrink wrapped software" you think they're exclusive to, right?

"short MS stock"? Honestly, how could anyone make such a terrible, uneducated recommendation at this point? In the next year alone, there is Windows 7 and Office 2010 releasing - two of their shrink wrapped products that will sell *HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS* of copies whether you like it or not. And on top of all that is what Mary Jo already discusses.

No, your post reeks of fanboyish biases instead of actual knowledge of Microsoft's upcoming lineup. Extremely irresponsible.
but will still drink from it believeing their glass of Kool-Aid is somehow different.
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Pithy...
30YrVet 4th Aug 2009
That was really useful commentary. You should write it on your blog....
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Kool Aid satisfies thirst ...
mckenzl 4th Aug 2009
and sure does taste good. But you would like to be the Jim Jones here, and poison it for everyone, wouldn't you?
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RE: What's Microsoft's next billion-dollar business? (Hint: it's not search)
makrekwe85-24353645770225391928980580402533 11th Nov
rnjsfm,good post!

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