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James Kendrick
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Is there a viable market for tablets other than the iPad?

By | April 26, 2011, 7:32am PDT

Summary: I believe I am not alone with my affinity for the tablet, but when it comes to hard numbers there haven’t been any to indicate that there is a sizable market for any tablet outside the iPad.

Regular readers of this blog know my affinity for the tablet. I like using them, I find they fit my life very well and it’s a common site to see me with one tablet or another in my hands. I believe that I am not alone with my preference for the slate, but when it comes to hard numbers there haven’t been any to indicate that there is a sizable market for any tablet other than the iPad.

Samsung got some traction last year with the global release of the Galaxy Tab, but the sales numbers bandied about for this tablet were called into question. I don’t remember seeing any hard proof that Samsung has sold millions of the Galaxy Tab as originally indicated. This is my tablet of preference, so I think it’s possible Samsung has sold a lot of them, but I have seen no proof of that.

The Motorola XOOM was the first big tablet to hit the market with the Android Honeycomb operating system optimized for tablets. It was released with a big advertising campaign in the U. S., so if any non-iPad tablet should have created a splash it should have been the XOOM. Analysts are painting a very grim picture for sales of the XOOM, so it doesn’t look like it has proven there is a real market for an Android tablet.

There are a lot of other Android tablets getting ready for market, and the HP webOS-based TouchPad is too. These follow on the heels of the BlackBerry PlayBook, which is aimed at the enterprise. While these are happy times for a tablet fanboy like me, there is simply no hard proof that there is a market for any of these tablets, no matter what some analysts may predict. The only tablet that has been proven in the market is the iPad, both first and second generation, and its success is driving the rest of the industry to try and cash in. I hope they do, but it’s not a given it will happen.

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Topics

Apple iPad, Affinity, Tablets, Notebooks, Hardware, Notebooks & Tablets, James Kendrick

James Kendrick has been using mobile devices since they weighed 30 pounds, and has been sharing his insights on mobile technology for almost that long.

Disclosure

James Kendrick

James Kendrick has no affiliations or relationships that need to be disclosed.

Biography

James Kendrick

James Kendrick has been using mobile devices since they weighed 30 pounds, and has been sharing his insights on mobile technology for almost that long. Prior to joining ZDNet, James was the Founding Editor of jkOnTheRun, a CNET Top 100 Tech Blog that was acquired by GigaOM in 2008 and is now part of that prestigious tech network. James' writing has appeared in many print publications: Smartphone and Pocket PC Magazine, Information Week and Laptop Magazine to name a few. James' coverage of the mobile technology sector has regularly appeared in the New York Times, Salon.com and CNN/ Fortune online. Not just a writer, James has filmed numerous video reviews and how-tos that have garnered well over a million viewers. He has appeared on local news segments and been interviewed by the Associated Press on mobile technology topics. Additionally, James has been podcasting about mobile technology for years.

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RE: Is there a viable market for tablets other than the iPad?
Peter Perry 26th Apr 2011
Of course there is, the market is just now starting to grow and expand... More people will see cheaper options and buy into them...

Companies like Samsung and Asus will be able to match or beat the pricing of Apple and that along with friends who bought these alternatives will push them over the top.

Crud, I had a guy from work call me and ask me which Tablet I have... I told him the XOOM and he asked me how I liked it... I said, it's great, I love it! He said, I'm going to buy one.

Why does this matter? Because he isn't technical but he doesn't appreciate Apple's heavy handed approach to managing their ecosystem.
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RE: Is there a viable market for tablets other than the iPad?
CowLauncher 26th Apr 2011
Peter, you must still be sleepy.
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RE: Is there a viable market for tablets other than the iPad?
credulousDolt 26th Apr 2011
@Peter Perry
"he isn't technical but he doesn't appreciate Apple's heavy handed approach to managing their ecosystem."

This is a technical argument, so how much coaching did your non-technical friend get to draw his conclusion?

Ah, you object: it's not technical, he just hates iTunes. Sorry, he wouldn't understand what an "ecosystem" is in this context unless he understood the various content delivery mechanisms and their alternatives, and whether Apple's approach is good or bad--hint: it's not bad--unless he was somewhat savvy.

Or your putting words in his mouth, which is some more coaching.
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Another option
Michael Alan Goff 26th Apr 2011
His friend worded it one way, and he worded it differently (same message) for here.
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RE: Is there a viable market for tablets other than the iPad?
Peter Perry 26th Apr 2011
@credulousDolt None that I know of, he said he talked himself out of the Apple.
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@Peter Perry... you get funnier with each post
MacCanuck 26th Apr 2011
You are indeed the new Mike Cox (or is that you Mike with a new routine and schtick?)

Keep up the good work. We all need a good laugh each day.
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RE: Is there a viable market for tablets other than the iPad?
Peter Perry 26th Apr 2011
@MacCanuck I am no relation to Mike Cox, I don'y hide behind aliases...

Apparently you find reality funny though as you call me names and say I am inaccurate and then fail to provide proof that I'm wrong and yet people should take your word for it.

Shouldn't you be patriotic and supporting RIM anyway?
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RE: Is there a viable market for tablets other than the iPad?
msalzberg 26th Apr 2011
@MacCanuck

He's NonZealot.
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RE: Is there a viable market for tablets other than the iPad?
Peter Perry 26th Apr 2011
@msalzberg I am not nonzealot either... Again, I do not hide behind aliases.

Of course I have never read their posts either or but it appears I have gotten alot of zealots attention as they all hate me!
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Don't call a winner at the start of the race
mutualmobile 26th Apr 2011
This space is still in its infancy, it's way to early to call a winner. iPad beat everyone to the game and had that excitement and frenzy, but Android, and particularly the Honeycomb OS have a lot of practical applications for enterprise. It's no wonder Xoom isn't doing well, there aren't more than a hand full of Honeycomb apps. Give it time.
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RE: Is there a viable market for tablets other than the iPad?
ckantack@... 26th Apr 2011
Yes. Once manufacturers realize they must produce good tablets that cost substantially less than the iPad. Barnes and Noble's Nook is the only other viable tablet competition for the iPad right now.
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Variety is key
toltz 26th Apr 2011
I think there is definitely a market for android and webOS so long as they innovate and create variety on the hardware side of things. I bought the ipad and ipad2 and I would go out and buy an android tablet right away if it had honeycomb, a price around $400, and a 7 inch screen.
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RE: Is there a viable market for tablets other than the iPad?
swmace 26th Apr 2011
I think the Lenovo tablet will make a big splash in the Enterprise world. I think RIM has basically lost its hold on the Enterprise device market and much of that market share will be picked up by Lenovo, who excel at making great functional business-quality products.
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There's room for all.
Bates_ 26th Apr 2011
Obviously, the iPad will lead the pack for a while, but that doesn't mean it will be the only one making big numbers in the tablet game. Today is a prime example with how fast the ASUS eee Pad Transformer sold out everywhere. Give the market time.
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RE: Is there a viable market for tablets other than the iPad?
toestor Updated - 26th Apr 2011
Of course there is. That's like asking: "Is there a viable market for PCs other than WindowsOS?" But for now the iPad is the gold standard. It's good to see that the competition is starting to wake up and (hopefully) catch up. I like the new Sony offerings just announced (especially the S2 because it puts a new spin on the form factor).
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No. You have all these developers writing for Android tablets
Will Farrell 26th Apr 2011
but nobody really buying them in any great quantity.

in about 6 months alot of development will drop away from Android tablets, so that won't help it either
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RE: Is there a viable market for tablets other than the iPad?
Peter Perry 26th Apr 2011
@Will Farrell Not going to happen, they're converging the ecosystem and standardize aspect ratios so you can write for the phones and scale to the tablets.
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RE: Is there a viable market for tablets other than the iPad?
dave95. Updated - 27th Apr 2011
@Peter Perry

In other words, they're taking the lazy uninspired route by scaling up apps built for a small 3.5 or 4 inch phone to tablets? 10" inche tablets? If there's no desire to make apps specifically for Android/Honeycomb tablets then there will be no tablet market to compete. Developers are just as important to the success of these alternative tablets as users. If the'se no developer interest then there's no user interest (and vise versa). Apps are the main driver to these devices, as well as the user experience.

And why would I want a wonky blown-up phone app for a tablet experience with enlarged and stretched out buttons when I could get one built specifically for the iPad size instead?
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Err...
jeremychappell 26th Apr 2011
Well the Android Tablets don't seem to be "catching the world on fire", but what else is there?

Windows Tablets have been around forever, and never gained traction - Maybe Windows 8? Maybe, but I actually don't think so. The appeal of the iPad is how "un-computer" it actually is, I don't see how Microsoft can make Windows 8 very iPad like without alienating their core market (which is FAR larger than the market of "iPad like devices"). Maybe they can, but I find it hard to conceptualise what such a system would look like.

The Playbook is an utter mess - we can forget that.

Thus far that leaves HP's webOS [SIC] and this seems to be the most interesting device since the iPad. Here the challenge isn't to take a PC and make it "iPad light", rather scale up something like an iPad into a "full PC". I think their chances are rather better (no legacy).

So of what we've seen I think the HP holds the most promise (of the non-Apple tablets). Of course, we can't discount the notion that someone will be able to conjure a completely new "magical device" out of a hat and amaze us all... But then you never can.

At the moment Apple seem secure, with only webOS on the horizon to offer any real competition. For all our sakes, let's hope HP don't drop the ball (even as a current iPad user, I can see competition is good).
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I disagree. I think Windows 8 will be a competitor
Will Farrell 26th Apr 2011
@jeremychappell
in the future, but the near future, I agree with you, Apple is secure. I don't see WebOS gaining over Android as it doesn't have the mind share that Android does, and you're right, it isn't catching the world on fire itself.

What will be most interesting will be overall tablet sales in the next 6 months. Will it have the same uptake as phones, or will it level off much earlier given the nature of the tablet factor itself?
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It's a different world
Robert Hahn 26th Apr 2011
@Will Farrell I don't see WebOS gaining over Android as it doesn't have the mind share that Android doesIt's difficult to predict the sales of something that is peddled primarily to enterprise customers with a major accounts sales force. Heck, sales of IBM mainframes are up 40% over last year; if there is one thing that is not "catching the world on fire," it's mainframes.

HP will be quietly walking out of offices with 4- and 5-figure unit orders. We won't hear a word about it. RIM will be doing the same thing.

Will either one of them get to Android- or Apple-class unit volumes that way? Nope. But they may not care. Like Apple, they'll be making money. The Android guys... not so much.
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Call the fire sale department
Robert Hahn 26th Apr 2011
By June, Android tablets will be flying off the shelves.

The Global Equities analyst estimates that Motorola is sitting on an overstock of between 500,000 and 800,000 XOOMs. At a manufacturing cost of $350 per, they've got a quarter-billion dollars tied up in inventory that's not moving. Motorola doesn't have the cash to float that.

It's a good bet that Samsung isn't in much better shape with the original Galaxy Tab. Let's figure they have a million of those.

I don't know who's on third, but surely somebody -- in order to lock in good parts pricing -- committed to delivery of a half-million super-duper Android tablets figuring that that would be a 90-day supply. Now they're starting to get that Deer In The Headlights look.

And there are more coming... from Acer, and Asus, and Sony, and Dell, and probably Ronco and Mattel as well.

By June -- and starting with the XOOM -- these are going to start hitting Woot and Overstock.com and Waste Management's bargain bin of recycled electronics. The dreams of $200 -- and even $100 -- Android tablets will come true as this massive overbuild of unsold tablets gets turned into cash at any price.

Poor Sony hasn't got a prayer. They'll be showing up with $400 and $500 Android tablets just as their predecessors are unloading XOOMs and Galaxies for so much a pound.

It'll make a big splash while it lasts. But as they say on TV, once they're gone, they're gone.

Heck, I might pick up a XOOM myself -- or two, they're on BOGO -- if I can get them for a hundred bucks.
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RE: Is there a viable market for tablets other than the iPad?
mstrsfty 26th Apr 2011
People need to realize that with the bigger screens of tablets, the need for apps to access certain websites diminish. Yes, apps for games and specialized purposes would be better for a tablet. But for everyday websurfing, the tablet browser is a good experience. The Apple ecosystem is overrated for tablets other than to provide apps.

Smaller devices like the iPhone, touch etc, need apps to compensate for the poor websurfing experience. The apps provide easy access to websites. Though I have found too many of them simply don't provide the depth of information that the full websites do. Therefore ecosystem is necessary to provide a constant stream of apps for these devices.

The iPods need music so consumers think they need Apple's ecosystem. In reality, its just as easy to buy music anywhere else and sync to iTunes and iPod.

Consumers will start buying tablets when the price hits a sweet spot.
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RE: Is there a viable market for tablets other than the iPad?
justinkearney 26th Apr 2011
These devices are still over priced and under powered. I have to say the apple user experience rocks over the xoom. I dislike the apple walled garden ecosystem and do not own any apple products but when you pick up these two devices side by side and use them, apple wins. I haven't had a chance to try the HP slate or one of the few windows tablets but i think interplatform compatibility is key for the winner of this evolving race. I personally want to be able to be doing something on my pc, transfer it to my tablet and then to my phone or TV to finish it up if I need to go somewhere.
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RE: Is there a viable market for tablets other than the iPad?
dXoom Updated - 26th Apr 2011
Absolutely, its the American way ...choice. With choice comes advancement, competition and results. Without it you get a closed ecosystem that just relables the old with only minor updates at an unheard of life cycle breakingt the consumer's wallets. I bought a Xoom knowing soon better and more powerful devices were comming, but also knowing that it did what I needed how I wanted it done. Buy the right tool for the right job and you'll be happy no matter what you buy.
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Yikes: Class, profession and fashion statements in all
scallag Updated - 2nd May 2011
IMHO: All these iPad's, slate's, tablet's and that elusive 'gotta-have-it' I'm forced to handle in my job, seems to be nothing but class-, profession- and fashion statements -- much like walking stick's. With a few exceptions these gadget's end-up being put aside when their novelity wears-off and only brought out again at the next B2B-meeting as a *issing-match. Once, I actually confronted one of these guy's about what use these gadget's had a full year after it's acquisition, he said '...any use [of them] is still being formulated'. Oh, really?

Now, former PC Magazine used to be good at covering the future prospects of a topic. So, I'm asking: What about the future alternative's as, say; map-sized roll-up screen peripheral's to use with iPhone- or Android-unit's and such?

//S
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There won't be a compelling alternative to iPad's until Windows 8 comes out
scott2010 20th Jun
There has to be a compelling reason to buy a tablet other than an iPad, and so far the Android camp haven't given us one. They better hurry, because Microsoft with Windows 8 creates a compelling alternative to the iPad. Why? As a user I'll be able to have a single device (tablet or hybrid) that serves as both a tablet and allows me to run all my PC software (with either a built-in keyboard on the hybrids or a bluetooth keyboard on the tablets).
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RE: Is there a viable market for tablets other than the iPad?
Monkeypox 20th Jun
The one thing I've found severely lacking in the iPad, besides a nimble, extensible OS like Windows, is a stylus. Why get your grubby mitts all over the screen? Stylii rock.
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G1
jibmaster 22nd Jun
When the G1 came out shortly followed by the HTC Hero everyone was still on the iPhone love train. The market difference was astounding. Fast forward a few years and Android is #1. The same thing will happen again with tablets in a shorter amount of time. End of next year iPad will be below 50% of total sales.

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