The iPad 2 is here, but laptops are not going away any time soon

By | March 3, 2011, 6:11am PST

Summary: While I like a good tablet in my hands, I am not so big a tablet fanboy to understand that the laptop is not going away any time soon, post-PC blockbuster or not.

As a self-professed tablet fanboy you’d think I would be preparing for the death of the laptop with the introduction of the iPad 2 and other capable tablets such as the Motorola XOOM. While I like a good tablet in my hands, I am aware enough to understand that the laptop is not going away any time soon, post-PC blockbuster or not.

Laptops have this thing called a keyboard that a tablet is lacking, and it makes a huge difference for users needing to create written content. It may not be the most efficient way to get lots of text into a document, but it is far better than alternatives. Say what you will about typing on a laptop keyboard, it is much better than tapping fake keys on a screen.

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Don’t get me wrong, tablets will indeed take sales away from laptop makers. There are a lot of folks who dont create much written content who will be happy without a physical keyboard. Sales of tablets will continue to grow at a fast clip, especially with lots of products about to hit the market that provide choice. But laptops aren’t going anywhere, in fact maybe competition from this unexpected source will drive notebook prices down.

I started thinking about this tablet/ laptop thing after a visit from my step-daughter last night. She brought our grandbaby over for a visit, and while we were cooing over the baby she noticed the Motorola XOOM sitting on the coffee table. She picked it up, and was instantly hooked.

She uses a netbook at home, but like a lot of folks her usage is confined pretty much to online activities. She got excited the longer she played with the XOOM, as these online activities fit the tablet perfectly. She is now seriously considering replacing her netbook with a tablet of some kind, as it fits her lifestyle.

So how does this back up my statement that the laptop is not going to disappear in favor of tablets? Listening to her describe how perfectly the tablet fits her current lifestyle, I realized that is only temporary. In just a few years her daughter will be heading off to school, and based on my experience with our kids I know that’s when she’ll need a laptop, no matter how prevalent tablets become between now and then.

Schoolkids are expected to use laptops for homework, and with particular software tools. That means Microsoft Office, and not a generic equivalent. Assignments have specific guidelines which basically requires a laptop with web connectivity, running Office. This is a good thing, as in addition to enforcing uniformity in the student’s work, it insures they will get experience using the tools that are in common use.

It is important that kids get exposure to these tools commonly used in the workplace, and this means computers with keyboards. The training wil prepare them for the real world, and that does not mean touch tablets. The enterprise may start incorporating tablets in the the workplace, but on a limited basis. There are too many factors that will make laptops the preferred computing tool in the enterprise, so kids will need to learn how to use them.

So laptops are here for the duration, and that’s a good thing. The more choice we have determining the tools we use, the better. I love my tablets, but I need the keyboard.

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James Kendrick has been using mobile devices since they weighed 30 pounds, and has been sharing his insights on mobile technology for almost that long.

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Biography

James Kendrick

James Kendrick has been using mobile devices since they weighed 30 pounds, and has been sharing his insights on mobile technology for almost that long. Prior to joining ZDNet, James was the Founding Editor of jkOnTheRun, a CNET Top 100 Tech Blog that was acquired by GigaOM in 2008 and is now part of that prestigious tech network. James' writing has appeared in many print publications: Smartphone and Pocket PC Magazine, Information Week and Laptop Magazine to name a few. James' coverage of the mobile technology sector has regularly appeared in the New York Times, Salon.com and CNN/ Fortune online. Not just a writer, James has filmed numerous video reviews and how-tos that have garnered well over a million viewers. He has appeared on local news segments and been interviewed by the Associated Press on mobile technology topics. Additionally, James has been podcasting about mobile technology for years.

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Sounds reminiscent of the Macbook Air...
kaninelupus 20th Mar 2011
@jscott418
And look how many idiots have give up much of the storage options (not including the keyboard of course)... lemmings will always follow an only realise what they are missing when Job's re-adds it as a "an amazing new feature"!!
What's wrong with plugging in an apple keyboard? I do.
@Reged......... Portability?
What about lack of optical drive,decent storage size, no SD card slot, lack of USB ports, I could go on. If you think adding a keyboard fixes everything then you don't do much with your iPad.
@jscott418 Or a floppy drive for that matter? just kidding. But seriously, if everything's going to the cloud do we really need optical drives? There are so many great apps for watching TV and movies that hunting around for a possibly scratched or dirty DVD seems pretty antiquated these days. Software installs? With the App Store no need for optical drives there either. Backup? Happens when you do a sync with your desktop computer now, but I can imagine it won't be long before Apple cuts those ties so everything gets backup to Mobile Me and you don't even need a PC anymore. I think that's what Apple is getting at when they talk about the Post-PC era. Sure we'll be hanging onto our laptops for a while still, but the iPad 2 isn't the end of the evolution of these tablet devices. The list of reasons for people choosing a laptop over a tablet is getting shorter all the time. Kids growing up with iPhones and iPads will be so used to them that using a tablet device will just seem more natural.
@bill Really want to know why laptops are not going away? Because Steve jobs got it into his head that the tablet cannot be powered by a mouse. You see I have a tablet and bought the keyboard. What a mistake. Typing is one thing, but having to constantly raise my hand to touch something not the screen just plain sucked. Of course if you jail break the device there is a mouse driver. But only if you jail break.

Tablets are information consumption devices only. Nothing bad with that. And quite frankly I will continue to own a tablet and a notebook.
@jscott418
That's the point most miss: do you want a consumptive device or a pc-like device - pick your tablet accordingly.

I looked at and like the folio with keyboard for the iPad, but as I want a pc-like device I'm looking more at the Android tablets.

@James K - I cannot agree. I think Motorola has the right idea - smartphone or tablet that can be plugged into a laptop style dock or something very similiar. As the cpu race for tablets heats up and energy use gets more efficient, I feel the laptop will be relegated to some business and hi-end gaming. The average user will have a plug and play smartphone, tablet or both.

wink
@jscott418
LOL what a waste of money
@jscott418
Lol your dead on but in general ipad and apple users aren't very smart, don't demand much for their money and live in make believe worlds lol. Thge ipad couldn't replace a netbook let alone a full on laptop thats a given.
@billsnebold
The thing is not everyone really wants the cloud environment. I think it has a niche market but the complexity of it for the novice and the security issues for companies make it not very ideal or attractive. I as an it guy myself like the cloud for entertainment storage only ie music videos and such but to kjeep important info or files in a cloud nooo wayyy. It's scary to think ebay will be going to a cloud based server with all the users info on it its a giant disaster waiting to happen so drives are a must and great must haves for anyone doing basic work or play.
@jscott418

If you need Netbook type of functionality simply just plugin a keyboard, runs a Windows virtualization software such as ThinServer and it will work !

http://www.aikotech.com/thinserver.htm
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Sounds reminiscent of the Macbook Air...
kaninelupus 20th Mar 2011
@jscott418
And look how many idiots have give up much of the storage options (not including the keyboard of course)... lemmings will always follow an only realise what they are missing when Job's re-adds it as a "an amazing new feature"!!
@Reged

If ipad is powerful enough in the future to have some other software installed like MS Office, the life span of laptop will be much shorter.

In addition, cloud computing will speed up this trend.
@mlwan
What Apple needs is flexibility to make that work.
- common storage area on device for all apps to use
- basic file system when I can't use/get to the cloud

Unfortunately, I don't see this happening in an SJ controlled environment. But then stranger things have happened.

@Reged Whats wrong with turning my slate into a netbook? ... nothing ... thats the point. I think slate/book conversions WILL replace a lot of netbooks, maybe even laptops someday. I thought this the first time a saw a dockable/wireless/touchscreen monitor. Maybe not tomorrow, but eventually. (I think)
@Reged what is the point then - if u carry the keyboard then it is same as to carry a full netbook. tablets are known for mobility.
Finally someone that is willing to admit it. I don't see the laptop going away either. The tablet market may gain some share in the short term but then people will realize its less functional than the laptop and those shares will quickly diminish.
@Loverock Davidson: at most, there was talk that netbooks, which are mostly "good for nothing" devices, might feel some decrease.

Goog laptops will continue to sell.
I don't understand why people can't see the iPad/iPad2 for what it truly is, which is a way for Apple to keep making money. Since Apple's overpriced computers have a crappy market share compared to the PC's 90%, they are not making any money in that area. The media devices (iPod, iTouch, Nano, etc.) is where they made their mark in the industry. Apple can't out sell the PC market when PCs are selling at around $600 these days and a laptop for $700. Apple has a whopping $1,500 - $2,000 price tag for their desktops and laptops. It's ridiculous and Macbooks and IMacs are not all that magical. Apple is riding this media device wave and they are going to continue to ride it because it's their "money maker." Since some people seem to think that the iPad is the best thing since sliced bread, then its popularity probably won't end anytime soon. The notion that the iPad could replace the laptop is a pipe-dream and it probably came from somebody at Apple to raise the curiosity of the public even more and make people want the iPad even more. Unfortunately, its obvious that folks who bought into the iPad thinking that it could replace their laptop, are disappointed with it. They will not admit that because they just spent nearly $1,000 getting it and have to convince themselves that its a good product. The fact that it's sold $18 million doesn't mean that it's the "future", it just means that the iPod is still a popular device...so popular that people want a king size one instead of a pocket sized one. That's it. No magic, Steve Jobs is not a genius, and the iPad is not a laptop killer.
@Gadget Girl

Since Apple's overpriced computers have a crappy market share compared to the PC's 90%, they are not making any money in that area.

Actually, they are ridiculously profitable in this area. They have a small market share, but their margins are so high relative to other PC makers that they suck up a huge percentage of actual profit in the PC industry.

The notion that the iPad could replace the laptop is a pipe-dream and it probably came from somebody at Apple to raise the curiosity of the public even more and make people want the iPad even more.

An iPad can replace a laptop for people who don't have to create content, but merely consume it.


The "tablet" as a separate entity is probably short-lived anyway. Fast forward a few years where full desktop OSes run handily on iPad-thin hardware and mobile docking stations with laptop-style keyboards and mice/trackpads exist and there will no longer be much of a relevant difference between a tablet and a laptop. It will just be "mobile computing".
The "tablet" as a separate entity is probably short-lived anyway. Fast forward a few years where full desktop OSes run handily on iPad-thin hardware and mobile docking stations with laptop-style keyboards and mice/trackpads exist and there will no longer be much of a relevant difference between a tablet and a laptop. It will just be "mobile computing".

It's gonna have to have a touch-centric interface that's intuitive. And it will also have to have a long battery life. The iPad changed the game in all that.

Merely band-aiding a windoze desktop OS with a few stylus options on to what amounts to a laptop with a weak_ass swivel screen, ain't gonna cut it.
@Loverock Davidson: Agreed--the laptop will be around for awhile. I need a keyboard with a proper keyboard to enter text. The Apple tablets I've seen so far look like toys, though I'd make an exception for the commercial tablets used in hospitals, stores, and warehouses. Wife has a Macbook laptop that works great, and she has no intention to replace it with a tablet. I'm not replacing my Toshiba laptop either.
@Loverock Davidson I don't think they'll go away, I think they will merge. Buying a laptop will someday be like buying a camera; for a specialized purpose. For a lot of people who buy computer just so they can play solitaire and get on the net and watch their netflix, your phone/tablet/handheld gaming/digital storage/camera/input device/etc/etc/etc will do the job nicely. Eventually; thats the way its evolving. Convergence. (Course not long after it'll prob all just go on in your head)
But after that, all schools will be using tablets with optional wireless keyboards for school work.

Price is everything and although I have played with the new MacBook Air 11" model extensively and would greatly appreciate it's power and form factor in a school environment, the Apple iPad 2 is half the price and with its ability to mirror or use AirPlay tech to output its content to a central HD TV (in a classroom setting), the choice for which future electronic device will dominate the school environment is self evident, IMO.
@kenosha7777: so you are right.
@denisrs
He is wrong! With school budgets in shambles, and coldhearted Teabagging/Republican not only saying no more money, they are on the kick of deep sixing the department of education. Hence, no school district can afford a $700 toy for each student when a $199 netbook will allow them to do more. We need to stop all the fluff and live in the "realworld."
@kenosha7777 - you left out one important thing. How was it taking notes in class and keeping up with the class your notes when compared to everyone else using pad and pen or a real laptop? Typing on them is a joke IMO and hauling a keyboard around - is well kind of silly.
@ItsTheBottomLine

is very light weight and compact .. very easy to carry around. Plus, not all classes require multiple pages of type written notes. A virtual keyboard would be more than adequate for short note taking, IMO.

For elementary grade levels, a tablet would be better suited for class content, IMO. For secondary and university level classes, a tablet with an optional external keyboard would work.

For university level classes, I personally would prefer a MacBook Air class computer. But a tablet design would still work.
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@ItsTheBottomLine I would say Pretty good now you can just press record...

My point is not to be rude but to highlight when it comes to study and work everyone is different. I never once worked the way you described while I was at Uni.
@ItsTheBottomLine
I use a Windows Tablet computer with OneNote. This works great. I can ink directly on the page in OneNote using my stylus and have handwriting recognition.
You can then also convert the computer into a normal laptop with a keyboard, so you can type with a real keyboard.
I don't see how you could do the same thing with an iPad type device, IMO.
Not to mention you can do virtually everything you can do on a Desktop (have a full office suite and USB ports).
Granted, it's a 3x heavier than an iPad 2 (at ~1.7 kg), but the computer fits snugly under your arm (and is still portable). Although battery life isn't that good, you can always get an additional battery pack (atleast on this tablet) that extends the battery life to 11 hours.
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Apple in schools?
itpro_z 3rd Mar 2011
@kenosha7777, our local school district has no Apple products, either in the offices or the classrooms. The computer labs are all Dells, and they have rolling labs of netbooks for classroom use. The business classes are all Windows/Office based, as are the staff computers. I also remember the school district that my kids attended removing Apple from their Approved Hardware list. While they did not insist that the few teachers still holding onto Macs get rid of them, they did mandate that no more would be purchased.

With school budgets being cut across the country, I would think it would be very hard to justify buying any Apple products.
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If it isn't too personal a question
kenosha77a 3rd Mar 2011
@itpro_z
Could you name your school district?

The largest metro area I live near is Detroit, Mi. Just recently, the Detroit School system recently used Federal Grant money for a large PC System upgrade. (50 million dollars)

The DPS used the federal stimulus funds in the following manner. " ... Every DPS student in grades 6-12 and every teacher in the district will receive or have access to an ASUS EEE Netbook, as part of a massive technology infusion that began last summer with the distribution of HP desktop computers, 4550 document cameras and 4,291 multi-purpose printer/scanners. An additional 533 HP desktop computers were purchased for the 138 early childhood classrooms in the district, and Wayne RESA received $1.5 million in Title I grant funds to purchase 273 SMART Boards for the district?s 38 School Improvement Grant buildings."

Personally, I would have used that financial resource to purchase different hardware but the real point is of that little story is ... Monies for educational purchases are available, even in this harsh economic environment.
@kenosha7777 Spoken like a person who has never used a tablet with keyboard. I have and it just sucks. The big big big problem is the lack of mouse. I hate having to raise my hand to touch something on the screen. And the tablets are certainly not tab smart. So no notebooks are here to stay.
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Nope, your quite wrong about that!
kenosha77a 3rd Mar 2011
@serpentmage
The wireless bluetooth keyboard I have paired to my iPad is the Microsoft Mobile keyboard 6000.

But the simply fact is, a tablet was not meant to use a keyboard for extended periods of time. Short notes, like this post, for example, are easily done with a tablet's virtual keyboard .. As I'm doing now on my iPad.

It is a rare thing when I use that excellent MS keyboard with my iPad. (while on vacation several years ago, I needed a wireless keyboard and I was intrigued by this unit's ergonomic design .. But that's another story.)

Actually, you don't need a mouse with a tablet. If you need more precision placing the cursor than just enlarge the screen with a simply pinch and zoom gesture.

But, as an aside, I have used an external cursor control device with my iPad. I've used my Apple Magic Trackpad (yeah, I know, it's that word again)

Of course, I was able to do this by using Splashtop remote to control my networked MacBook via my iPad. Sort of neat. The illusion of a OSX tablet on my iPad using this app is quite amazing. It's one way to view Flash or Silverlight content on an iPad tablet. It's also a way to have the latest Chrome browser "installed" on it.
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deleted
Hallowed are the Ori Updated - 4th Mar 2011
deleted
@kenosha7777
Not in public school systems any time soon.

sad
@zenwalker
On Apple's web site, a video detailing uses for the iPad 1 tablet during the year has a clip showing iPads being used in Chicago elementary schools. That was just one example of iPad use in a public school environment.
They won't disappear, they will converge and become hybrids.
@Peter Perry - I agree and waiting on a really good one
@ItsTheBottomLine
yup. me too.
@Peter Perry

Except for the price range, the MacBook Air 11" with large multitouch trackpad is the hybrid you envisioned.
The laptop is going away for me. I have been considering for the last 8 months (since I've been an iPad owner) whether I really still need a laptop any more. I haven't moved the laptop off of my desk in months. Garageband on iPad 2 is also a tipping point for me. My next computer will be an iMac (when they are refreshed with the Sandy Bridge processors), not a Macbook or Macbook Pro. My Macbook Pro is about 5 1/2 years old, and it's one of the first Macbook Pro machines, with an Intel Core Duo, not a Core 2 duo. So I see this upgrade happening some time this year, hopefully before or around the time Lion appears.
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not enough negatives
stacejop 3rd Mar 2011
The only 2 reasons given for tablets not surpassing the laptop given above are:

1. There is no physical keyboard (easily overcome by buying a separate keyboard plug-in for writing tasks)

2. Generic Industry tools are not supported (which is a falsehood as almost all tablets run some form of windows or office is available, also due to the common use of Mac products in the United States, students must in fact learn both the PC and Mac platforms for the workplace)

Tablets will indeed take over the industry as they customize themselves to the most necessary tasks: Easily transportable storage (SD), longer battery life (movies and streaming), anti-glare in color for intense long reading by students, and the ability to take on document writing (easy to use keyboards). Not to mention the lower cost than a traditional laptop.

The tablet will eventually rain supreme.
@stacejop have to disagree. A hybrid maybe but to carry around a keyboard with the iPad is goofy. Our CIO does it and it's the silliest thing I have ever seen. We have our laptops flip the lid SSD drive fires up and we have the same benefit minus the touch screen. A hybrid of the two I would agree. iPads replacing laptops nope... If you just read data and that's all you do - then yes you are correct.
James, I think you are absolutely right in this, and frankly it's been something I've been saying for quite some time. However, I'd add one caveat -- netbooks. Those, I do believe are going to go the way of the UMPC. Anyone remember those? Underpowered processor. Restricted resources. Cramped keyboard. Price already not hugely less than a full powered laptop. Laptop prices are already pushed down significantly. I put my wife on a solid, i5-based Vaio, well equipped for under $750. Remember that Sony's are Cadillacs, I could have gone *much* cheaper and still stayed out of laptops.

As far as the hybrids, that one commenter mentioned, I can speak to that from considerable experience. I've been using a hybrid as my primary PC for the last 5 years. I don't think they'll go away, but the cost will always be an issue, if only from a physical hardware standpoint. Designing a reliable screen hinge for these is not cheap, plus the added cost of both multi-touch and pen support is going to keep the price up there.

The reality is, that if the tablet format works for you, it is AWESOME. It will give a great boost to your productivity and flexibility. If it doesn't, you have spent a lot of extra money for something that will under-utilized or set to the side. As someone once said, "It's all happened before. It will all happen again."
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Netbooks are much cheaper than Tablets
kouzen Updated - 3rd Mar 2011
I'm about to buy a netbook for EUR 250,-. Okay, it's not as fast, but the iPad costs EUR 380,- + keyboard EUR 70,-, and the battery is not user servicable(?) which means that in 5 years time it is ripe for disposal. I like my computer systems to last a bit longer.
I agree. I have an iPad and iPhone and there is no way I'm giving up my laptop. The 1st manu that can put a combination of the two together that works, well will win.
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I need
eatingacheesepastieforlunch 3rd Mar 2011
a laptop, theres no way a tablet ipad etc, could cope with what i need ram graphics etc plus having a full blown os that i can run programs on.
I work in a music studio.
Plus a laptop for me is more robust then a tablet, being that a tablet is touch screen and my laptop isn't, means im more then likely not going to scratch my screen.

If they bought out a rough and tough tablet with w7 and the power of my laptop an i7 with 1 gb graphics a large hard drive lots of ram etc then i may consider it, but im sure the laptop would still be cheaper.
@eatingacheesepastieforlunch: Actually, you can get what you want: Win7-64bit, 2.66 GHz i7 quad-core, 1280x800 touch/pen enabled display, 8GB RAM and a 160 GB solid state drive. It does use the Intel graphics chip, but - especially with all the RAM - it's more than adequate for studio use. I've run it with CuBase and Audacity and it's sweeeet. It's nice to be able to manipulate the faders by hand and is a close to a physical board as you can get. I haven't moved my ProTools install to it yet, but I'm looking forward to it.

You're right, though. It's NOT cheap. What I described above is going to be around $3K! My own system, I only needed the 2.66 GHz i5 and went down to the 250 GB SATA hard drive, but that still tabbed in over $2600.

If you can justify the cost, it's wonderful and quite addictive. And you don't have to worry about scratching the screen with either finger or pen -- they're pretty tough.
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I need a keyboard app for my notebook.
I use the notebook from my armchair using a wireless mouse while the notebook is connected to my HDTV for viewing VOD. A bit like what the Wii has. Anything out there?
@Ashtonian If you run Windows, just run OSK from run/start search box. Windows have on screen keyboard for a long time.

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