Windows 8 tablets will target what market again?

By | December 2, 2011, 7:19am PST

Summary: Microsoft is busy getting Windows 8 tablets ready to take the world by storm, but it is not clear exactly who will want one.

Forget Android tablets and the iPad, there are a lot of folks waiting for the much ballyhooed Windows 8 tablets due to hit next year. A lot of folks believe a full computer like the Windows 8 tablets will offer lots more utility than the toy tablets currently available. The reality hasn’t hit these folks yet, that these future slates aren’t really aimed at the current tablet market.

Microsoft is busy working on Windows 8, especially the new breed of tablet that will take tablets to the next level. That may be the plan, but it’s already hard to figure out who will benefit from this effort. There will be both Intel-based Win8 tablets and ARM-based models. This will require two different versions of Windows 8, and more importantly two different app ecosystems.

Those expecting the ARM tablets with Windows 8 to be more capable than Android tablets and the iPad better sit down. Windows 8 tablets using the ARM technology will need entirely new apps to be of any use. This means an entire ecosystem of apps, both third party and from Microsoft, will have to be written for this new platform. Those dreaming of running all of the legacy Windows apps are living in a dream world. Even if developers are willing to port all of the apps users might want, they all need to be totally revamped for the Metro touch interface. This means entirely new apps, even if based on existing user favorites.

While Intel-based Windows 8 tablets can more easily use legacy Windows apps, they too will need to be revamped for touch operation. Those of us who have been using touch Tablet PCs for years can tell you how useless most Windows legacy apps are on those devices. It will be no different on Windows 8 Intel tablets. This means yet another app ecosystem, on top of legacy Windows and ARM Windows.

It’s too early to tell how many developers will be willing to do all of this work porting legacy Windows apps to these two new tablet platforms, much less write new ones. Without the ability to predict how the app situation will evolve for Windows 8 tablets, it is impossible to guess which market segments might be attracted to which version of Windows.

Will consumers flock to the ARM Windows 8 tablets? Depends on the apps available. Same thing holds true for the enterprise market. Will it be attracted to the Intel-based Windows 8, the ARM-based, or stick with desktops/laptops? That’s impossible to predict without seeing how the apps go on each. It all sounds as clear as mud, but it really is even less clear than that.

Microsoft has forked the app development effort into three streams with Windows 8: conventional desktop/laptop (Intel), touch tablet (Intel), and ARM tablets. Each brings its own demands and requirements to write apps, and developers must guess what type of user they must target with the effort. They have to decide if they are going to develop just one or two versions of their apps, or go all-in with all three. Whatever they do, they will be stuck with supporting the various versions, a major investment.

Like many folks I am anxiously waiting the appearance of Windows 8 tablets. I am a tablet person after all. But I can’t see how this will all shake out, and exactly who OEMs should target with them. It is anybody’s guess at this point.

Image credit: Flickr user Odi Kosmatos

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James Kendrick has been using mobile devices since they weighed 30 pounds, and has been sharing his insights on mobile technology for almost that long.

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Biography

James Kendrick

James Kendrick has been using mobile devices since they weighed 30 pounds, and has been sharing his insights on mobile technology for almost that long. Prior to joining ZDNet, James was the Founding Editor of jkOnTheRun, a CNET Top 100 Tech Blog that was acquired by GigaOM in 2008 and is now part of that prestigious tech network. James' writing has appeared in many print publications: Smartphone and Pocket PC Magazine, Information Week and Laptop Magazine to name a few. James' coverage of the mobile technology sector has regularly appeared in the New York Times, Salon.com and CNN/ Fortune online. Not just a writer, James has filmed numerous video reviews and how-tos that have garnered well over a million viewers. He has appeared on local news segments and been interviewed by the Associated Press on mobile technology topics. Additionally, James has been podcasting about mobile technology for years.

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Duplicate - Deleted
Joe.Smetona Updated - 25th Dec
Duplicate - deleted.
0 Votes
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Which market(s)?
Tim Acheson 2nd Dec
1) The tablet market.
2) The PC market.
3) The laptop and netbook markets.

Isn't it obvious?
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Who dat
Robert Hahn 2nd Dec
What exactly is "the tablet market"? Does Microsoft even know? We know it's not about devices or operating system features. The big-time device makers who thought the "tablet market" was about better widgets spent a fortune and came away empty. HP spent a billion on a well-regarded tablet OS and they hit the rocks, too.

The only guys who have succeeded in the tablet market are content-oriented: Amazon, Apple, and Barnes&Noble. With the sales numbers now coming in on the K-Fire, we know that -- despite the fates of the XOOM and its ilk -- Android can do fine in the tablet market IF it is backed by a rich content ecosystem. (Some would say the Nook and K-Fire are about price, but if that were all it took, Archos would own the market).

When Microsoft talks about the "tablet market," they speak of "Windows apps" and a full-blown OS and near-desktop functionality. Meanwhile 50 million iPads have gone out the door with none of that. The skeptic might think that until Microsoft starts talking about buying Hulu or Netflix, and B&N, they're no smarter than the "device makers" who fell on their butts trying to sell Powerful Widgets.
0 Votes
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kindle fire sales numbers
bannedfromzdnetagainandagain Updated - 2nd Dec
@Robert Hahn
which sales numbers? amazon doesn't provide any sales numbers for the kindle products, only smokescreen pr bs. what are you referring to? baseless analysts' estimates?
I agree with the article but don't forget Win8 is much better at touch than previous Windows versions, including Intel tablets.
@Robert Hahn

First off, if you listen to a word at all the Mac and Linux lovers have been preaching for endless years, people buy whats foisted upon them and somehow learn to first live with it, then no matter how god awful it is they eventually claim to love it. Thats how they all say Windows got a market. If its even close to the truth then its certainly happened with tablets because the current crop is largely garbage, iPad included. The over priced iPad would barely be worth its value at $100 bucks a pop yet millions have bought one and claim they love it, even if its sitting on the corner of the family coffee table waiting for someone to decide to do something with it, at $500 a shot.

If you cant see the potential of a full blown Windows based tablet in this kind of a market then you don't understand so much as a single thing about the way the market works.

What a silly article. What market?

Take a simple guess and get real.
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The followup
ScorpioBlue 3rd Dec
First off, if you listen to a word at all the Mac and Linux lovers have been preaching for endless years, people buy whats foisted upon them and somehow learn to first live with it, then no matter how god awful it is they eventually claim to love it. Thats how they all say Windows got a market.

True except for the last part. I haven't met anybody yet in the last 10 years that claims to "love" Windows. I've never heard it said or read it until I starting posting on zdnet. Come to think of it, I never realized there were rabid Windows fanbuis until I posted at zdnet. Windows was seen as just a tool people used because there wasn't anything else available and they weren't willing to spend the money on an Apple.

If its even close to the truth then its certainly happened with tablets because the current crop is largely garbage, iPad included. The over priced iPad would barely be worth its value at $100 bucks a pop yet millions have bought one and claim they love it, even if its sitting on the corner of the family coffee table waiting for someone to decide to do something with it, at $500 a shot.

And how do you that's true? How do you know they're just sitting on coffee tables just waiting to be used? Have you ever used one before? Have you bothered to learn?

If you cant see the potential of a full blown Windows based tablet in this kind of a market then you don't understand so much as a single thing about the way the market works.

No I can't see the potential since Windows tablets have been around for the last 10 years and have barely made a dent in the market. If you can't see that then it's perhaps you who
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@cayble
ego.sum.stig@... 3rd Dec
You have a rather flawed (as in so totally wrong) view of what "others" think happened wrt Microsoft's dominance. That and I'd offer the (correct) opinion that you wouldn't know what a market was even if one wandered up to you and tried to alert you to its presence and function. On that point, you don't even begin to describe a use case for Windows on a tablet. You wave your hands and belch and declare it (a WinTab) is (presumably) going to take some mystical market by storm apparently.

However, in your defence, the blogger is waving his hands etc and opining, but at least he's a tad more honest in his musings.
@Cayble

"First off, if you listen to a word at all the Mac and Linux lovers have been preaching for endless years, people buy whats foisted upon them and somehow learn to first live with it, then no matter how god awful it is they eventually claim to love it. Thats how they all say Windows got a market. If its even close to the truth then its certainly happened with tablets because the current crop is largely garbage, iPad included."

Sorry but must point out that is true.
How many car owner you know who have changed their car engine to better one?

Are you saying that the engine what comes in the car, is the best available?
Are you saying that people buy that car because they want that engine in it?

See, every one can change their car engine. It takes just hour or two from skilled mechanic. You just need to buy a new compatible engine for the body.
But why doesn't no one do that?

Because they just want a good looking car what goes fast or has lots of space. They do not care so much about the engine.
Think about if people could learn that they could switch their gasoline/diesel engine to electronic one and then add bottom of their car full of batteries and make a electronic car?
Or that they could swap the gasoline engine to diesel engine and gain savings with that?
@Robert Hahn The best tablet that is affordable in price and with good features in my think of that one is here: http://www.technologyfazer.com/acers-upcoming-iconia-tab-a200.html
@Robert Hahn

I agree with you. Just to add, I use tablets for finance-related work and school and I am very satisfied, especially with the IPad2. Unfortunately, I experienced so many dissapointments with Windows OS in the past that unless they come up with a truly innovative product, I will not spend a dime on them.

As you mentioned, Apple, Amazon & B&N are now getting a good portion of their respective market shares. By the way, Amazon does not provide sales numbers for their Kindle, but it is easy to get an idea by simply checking inventory orders from their contracted manufacturers.

Good posting,
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@Tim Acheson
+1
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@Loverock Davidson-

Apparently Intel and others believe that there is no longer a viable netbook market. (Intel recently pushed back the availabilty of their latest Atom CPU slated for netbooks until next year.)

I would amend Tim's third bullet to just include laptops. (Ultrabooks are a subclass of laptops.)

Actually, when you think about it, both you and Tim believe a Win 8 tablet will compete against the Ultrabook market.

I always felt that, being in the Apple ecosystem, that the iPad enhanced a person's MBA experience. In other words, the iPad doesn't compete against the MBA market. The two products can stand alone, so to speak, but combined, they form a very impressive system.
0 Votes
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@Loverock Davidson-
You've repeatedly said tablets are a fad. Shouldn't MS just stay out of that market? After all, why waste tons of cash just to get into a market that, according to you, won't be around very long??
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@Tim Acheson

Right. If it's so obvious why did Microsoft and Windows OEMs struggle to figure the market for over a decade? They've consistently tried to push these devices onto consumers since 2001 but saw little to no sales.

Apple swooped in with their version of what a tablet should be (light computing appliance type device, not full tablet Mac) and they've sold in one year more iPads than Microsoft and partners managed to push out in 10 years, combined.

Amazon swooped in with their 7" consumption focus Kindle Fire and already seeing more sales than full Windows Tablet PC saw over the decade.

Microsoft seem to be chasing the same failed vision of having full Windows as the unifying bases of tablets and PCs. As Ballmer admitted, tablets and slates are just another form of the Windows PCs. Meaning it's just another form factor to continue pushing their bread and butter Windows. But this time with metro-like shell as the lipstick to cover the ugly.

Microsoft in their own self interest to keep Windows relevant everywhere seem to be purposefully ignoring where the consumer tablet market is heading. Light, efficient, cheap consumption devices not full PCs. Lose the complexity and focus on strong app selection and content ecosystem. The form factor of the device will always dictate its use.
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@Tim Acheson
right now MS doesn't have an ARM based tablet OS, so they created a version of Windows for ARM based tablets.

But then again, tablets are a tinyt segment of the overall "PC" market. Sure MS could make a totally new OS for tablets, but then again, it would be something different that developers would have to develop for, as they do with Mac OX, iPad iOS, and iPod/iPhone iOS.

So what's the issue?
Do you think if you do not like others do not like..
Microsoft still doesn't understand the problem. Apple does. Amazon just figured it out. Unfortunately for Microsoft, IT people have just gotten the idea. It's not the operating system, it's the portal to the world. iTunes was the spark. It showed that it's the process, not the computer, that matters. The iPad is the process to do something. The Kindle is the process to do something. Nothing more. Nothing less. It's the struggle to regain the productivity that the PC and Windows stole from the march of progress.
@Tony Burzio

I agree that if you want a browser, ebook reader, or audio/video player, Windows is overkill. But far more people buy Windows PCs than tablets of all sorts combined. If you need the extra capabilities, you can do more on Windows than you can on iOS or Android.
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@HildyJhnsn
That is true, but 95% of that stuff requires one of two things, neither of which is characteristic of a tablet: The 'productivity' stuff wants a keyboard, and the serious Windows 'gamer' stuff wants a GPU that would last 8 seconds on a battery-powered device. Heck, mine has three power-supply connections and a loud fan. It's just not a tablet kind of thing.

I don't think people are questioning whether Windows is appropriate on a desktop computer, or even on a laptop.
@Robert Hahn, ASUS Transformer Prime may be what you have in mind... quad-core processor, gaming graphics, tablet form factor, thinner and lighter than iPad and has attachable keyboard which extends battery several hours beyond iPad's. The up side, it should run Windows 8 as well as Android.
0 Votes
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Puny human graphics
Robert Hahn 2nd Dec
@Hbstringy
You're not one of those people who believes the Asus hoo-hah that they have the only tablet with a keyboard docking station, are you? Those things are everywhere. Even Apple has one.

Do not even try to sell the idea that "gaming graphics" in a tablet are on the same planet with desktop GPUs like the nVidia GTX 580. Heck, the GTX 580 board costs more than the Asus Transformer.
@Robert Hahn

I agree with you but I think there is still opportunity for a solution with Windows 8 tablets. The key will be the ability for a dock to have additional GPU/CPU power. When you look at new CPU architecture using combined CPU/GPU cores you can see that this will be entirely possible. Using something similar to CrossFire or SLI you could easily have your basic graphics built into the tablet and then the dock could be where you have the additional horsepower. The advantage? Everything comes with you.

Eventually I think we'll see dumb slates that are powered by a cell phone's processing while on the go and by your local dock when in your home. I like the idea of combined devices. I think MS has the right ideas, I'm just not convinced they'll pull it off. I think they're heading in the best direction though. But it all comes down to execution.
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@LiquidLearner ... you cannot be serious
thx-1138_@... Updated - 2nd Dec
" ... Using something similar to CrossFire or SLI you could easily have your basic graphics built into the tablet and then the dock could be where you have the additional horsepower. The advantage? Everything comes with you. "

... so wan't a 15kg, 17" display, gaming tablet, with SLI or CrossFire?!? You've just discovered a "niche" of one, deluded guy .. yourself.

You've gotta be on some mind bending drug. I've never heard so much crap in one post ... i mean .. geez.
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@Tony Burzio

It's the process that matters? Have you not used iTunes? It's the most restrictive, bloated mainstream piece of software on the market. There's a reason Apple FORCES you to use it, because it would be the first thing uninstalled if not.

Let's be realistic, not everyone requires a "portal" to Facebook and smooth-scrolling Image viewing. Mini banking apps and Pandora are great, but they are just that, "apps." Some people need to use real programs. Claiming that these devices need to run a "process" is absurd. If that were the case I would need to bring my; laptop, iPad, Kindle, phone, camera, iPod and about five others when I go somewhere. These are computers, not abacuses.

No, there aren't any fully-optimized touch screen programs for Windows 7/8/9 yet, there is no medium to run them on. A year before the iPhone came out did you forecast it's success based on current app availability? Hopefully not. Windows developers are plentiful, and the majority. If you don't think that they will develop/adapt programs to utilize the touch screen input of a tablet, it's naive. (see IE 10 to get started)

"640kb is all the memory anybody would ever need on a personal computer..." nope.

Classifying tablets (and their uses/users) is very short-sighted. Sure, SolidWorks would probably work best on a Laptop(for now) but I can guarantee you that if there was a full version of Windows 8 and its programs, plenty of people would have no problem pulling out a mouse to get stuff done. Does that mean you can't use touch-screen apps for a quick task? no. Is this going to replace the laptop or can you not have both devices, bringing whichever one is going to be best suited for the scenario? no. It's about portability, not eliminating computing in lieu of Angry Birds.

Personally, I use Linux. It works best for what I do; networking, development, penetration testing, command-line navigation, and many others. Does that mean I hate the iPad because it's utterly useless to me? no, it's a great piece of hardware, one of the best on the market. It's just does absolutely nothing that I require.

Bottom line, don't assume everyone uses computers for the same purpose. Let's also not rag on manufacturer's theoretical programs for an OS that doesn't exist on hardware that isn't built. It's an invalid argument. Apple isn't better than Microsoft, and Microsoft isn't better than Apple. Nor are their devices. Guess what? Linux is a better server than both of them, and Microsoft has a better Office Suite than all others, and Apple has better media editing than them all. I don't think anyone drives an oil-rig to their office job downtown... right? There is no one size fits all.
Windows tablets offer offer one major advantage over phone OS tablets - they run Windows software. They also offer three advantages over laptops - they're smaller, lighter, and you can interact with them via touch or stylus. I would guess that Windows tablets will be priced and sold like laptops. Consumers who currently buy laptops because they can run an office suite or other PC software will be the primary mass market target. Enterprises who want a tablet alternative that can run enterprise applications will also be a possibility, although I would see most demand coming from vertical field applications and executives because of the installed base of cheap laptops.
@HildyJhnsn
they run Windows software.
@HildyJhnsn

The advantage you cited (Window's tablets run Windows Software) is both advantage and disadvantage. Please recall what James wrote. Legacy Window apps running on a 7 or 10 inch tablet surface are not fun. The pull down menus require constant "zooming" in order to use touch input, for one thing. Anyone who has used a VCM to access their desktop computer understands this fact of life.

I would have to say, without disrespect intended, that the disadvantages outweigh the advantages of running legacy Window apps on a tablet screen. Like James said, vendors will need to rewrite their application code to take into account the requirements for touch input. (larger menus, ect.) Apple realized that when they redid their office suite apps (Keynote, Pages, Numbers) for the tablet environment. There is no other way around that reality.
@HildyJhnsn

They don't run Windows software. ARM tablets will need new software to run on them. Or some sort of "Universal Binary" like the Mac has(d) for PPC and Intel.

That being said, I think MS has no idea what people want. People are skipping WP7 because of the FUGLY UI and I think that will carry over to Tablets.
0 Votes
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I needed a laugh before the weekend
LiquidLearner 2nd Dec
@itguy10

People are skipping Windows 7? You're right, it's only the fastest selling OS in history. It's also an OS that was rolled out in enterprises faster than any previous OS. But sure, people are "skipping" it.
@itguy10
Universal binaries are necessarily larger. I suspect this would impact load times and RAM footprint. This could be addressed by hardware, but at cost to battery life.

No, the binaries will be processor specific. Developers will have to compile to Win8-on-ARM if they want to be on that platform. I assume it will be a switch in Visual Studio or VS produces an Intel and ARM binary when mobile is the target.

The real question is whether Microsoft opens up the pocketbook for developer subsidies and a Win8-ready non-beta Visual Studio so there's a robust app store by the end of 2012.
@HildyJhnsn The ARM based tablets sure aren't going to run Windows any time soon. It sounds to me like MS threw a bomb into Windows 7-8 and picked up the biggest pieces as new products.
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Imagine for a moment
LiquidLearner 2nd Dec
@HildyJhnsn

An enterprise 5 years built off the Windows 8 tablet. Each user is assigned a tablet, and each desk has a dock that has keyboard, mouse, monitor and network connectivity. Everything the user needs to be productive is on that tablet. They can work from anywhere within the company and have everything they need simply by dropping their tablet into a cradle.

They could also be issued a bluetooth keyboard dock similar to what we have on the ASUS Transformer Prime today so they could switch to laptop mode while on a plane or sitting in a coffee shop. Or they could leave that in the car while they're in a client's office and have a tablet with them. A single device that can fill every computing role. It sounds like a pretty cool prospect to me.
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I take it you think that is a good idea
ego.sum.stig@... 3rd Dec
However, there are a number of flaws in your "argument."
1. No company in its right mind on down to completely insane is going to stump up for fixed location under-utilised accessories (dock, screen, mouse, network adaptor).
2. All of your nirvana can be accomplished with a laptop/netbook, so there is no compelling argument to get new kit.
3. What are the users supposed to be capable of when they wander off to wherever with said fabulous WinTab? Because if they are capable of doing it away from the kit on the desk, then they surely don't need it at the desk.
3. You haven't thought this through at all (which covers the rest of your nirvana).
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Say what!?!
rhonin 4th Dec
@ego.sum.stig@...
. No company in its right mind on down to completely insane is going to stump up for fixed location under-utilised accessories (dock, screen, mouse, network adaptor).


Are you nuts?
I would luv to have that in a lab! Notebooks are too cumbersome and having to use a desktop type setup ties my scientists and techs to a specific location. Having a tablet I can move from dock to dock would make a lab run smoother and more efficiently.

shocked
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What indeed
ego.sum.stig@... 5th Dec
So, your lab is going spontaneously increase in available space and connections for docks etc?
... going forward. That will be metro app development. If you develop in HTML / Javascript or .Net, your app will automatically target both the Intel and ARM platforms. You won't have to develop two versions of your app, or do two compilations of your app. If you develop in C++ - and this affects a minority of developers - you will have to compile your single app to both Intel and ARM. Therefore even a C++ developer will only have to create a single app, and compile it to two platforms - not create two versions of his app. Now beyond the above, developers will still be able to develop for the old Windows desktop. But this will be legacy app development - not the future metro app development. Therefore for the vast majority of developers looking to the future, there will only be metro app development, which will be relatively straightforward.
@P. Douglas
And more importantly, millions of Windows developers who have created far more applications than any app store has don't have to redevelop them from scratch - they can adapt them in a familiar environment (Visual Studio) to gradually transition to a new platform. First make it work, then gradually leverage more of the features. Doesn't sound pretty, but it's the reality, and for many apps with small customers bases, the only way that will pay for your costs.
@P. Douglas
Well, maybe. High performance applications may mean that the developer has to care about the underlying processor or abstractions that support the write once, compile-and-run windows-where world we see zdnet talk-backer describe as all but here. Mobile is a resource-constrained environment and programming takes some real chops, if a compelling user experience is the goal.
All I want is a full featured Microsoft Office suite... but with Microsoft indicating taht they are about to release an Office suite for iOS, there might not be any reason to wait for a Windows 8 tablet.
@dsf3g
....you'd better stick with the desktop. I doubt very much that either a Windows tablet or an iOS table will run full-featured versions.
@Userama

I have a Win7 tablet (HP Slate 500) and it runs the full MS Office Suite including the ink annotations capabilities. While MS may well offer a lite version for ARM tablets, any of the current i86 Windows tablets run the full version of Windows and the full version of Windows software.
@Userama

Not everybody needs a full-featured version. More often than not, users of Office would just need to edit preexisting documents on their tablet. And if it just gets the display and print formats right (which most non-MS suites have issues with) it will be worth the purchase price.
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But that will ...
P. Douglas 2nd Dec
@dsf3g,

... almost certainly be a light version of Office, which won't be able to do all that much. Win 8 tablets will be able to support full Office, and will have the horsepower to do so.
@P. Douglas And how many people need/want this? Answer, not many.
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RE: Windows 8 tablets will target what market again?
Cylon Centurion Updated - 2nd Dec
@mobile_manny

I would love MS Office w/ ink for school. Office is all we use. Not to mention a Windows 8 tablet will guarantee I can interact with my systems at home where ever I am. Having a full, no compromise, OS on a tablet is a dream come true. Once I am done at school, I could come home and dock it, and carry on. You can't exactly do that with an iPad.
0 Votes
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And you asked everyone about that?
William Farrell 2nd Dec
@mobile_manny
iPad owner here and very happy. Looking at the NOOK next, do I really need 3 tablets?! I think MSFT is very very late to the game....
@Hasam1991

A bit of advice to fellow iPad user. Instead of spending the 250 dollars on a Nook (a fine product, BTW), use those funds to enhance your iPad ecosystem.

I just purchased the Seagate GoFlex Satillite HD and portable WiFi device and the added 500 GB storage space and tradional file manager functions incorporated into it's free iPad app have been well worth the 200 dollar investment.
@Hasam1991
Microsoft's tablet will offer a whole lot more different features over your iPad than a Nook will. If you're really buying a Nook after owning an iPad already, then buying a Win8 tablet as well will be a lesser duplication of value than your Nook purchase.
0 Votes
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Duplicate - Deleted
Joe.Smetona Updated - 25th Dec
Duplicate - deleted.

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