The bottom line on Novell-Microsoft may be RedHat stock surge

The Novell-Microsoft deal, announced November 2, was designed to boost Novell's place in the Linux universe against that of competitors, notably RedHat.

Those analysts, like Peter Yared, who spun the deal as a good thing were banking on the idea it would make Novell a more significant competitor in the Linux space.

RedHat's "what, me worry" attitude was dismissed by no less a thinker than our own Larry Dignan, who predicted that buyers would enjoy "Some serious leverage as Red Hat subscriptions expire in a few months" because of the Microsoft (and Oracle) market entries. Mark Wagner added that the deal created "Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt" among RedHat customers, benefitting Microsoft.

OK, so what are the early returns from people who pay attention most closely, namely investors on Wall Street? Well, here's the performance of the relevant companies for the last three months:

• Oracle -- Down 3.56%
• Microsoft -- Up 2.7%.
• Novell -- Up 8.13%
• RedHat -- Up 36.82%

These are early days. The behavior of these vendors' stocks is not attributable solely to Linux, or their positions on the Linux market question.

But I have always believed that conventional wisdom is more convention than wisdom, even my own, and that if you want to seperate truth from fiction you should follow the money.

So far, you'll find that money in the red hat.