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Linux and Open Source

Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols & Paula Rooney

Will iPhone-Verizon deal, ChromeOS slow Android's momentum?

By | January 10, 2011, 10:55am PST

Summary: One has to wonder if the fallout of the Verizon-iPhone deal includes a slowing down of Android’s momentum. There’s no doubt that Verizon’s strong endorsement of Android-based smartphones has been a big boon for Google’s open source mobile operating system. In the Northeast, at least, customers often go with the Droid or other Android devices simply because Verizon’s [...]

One has to wonder if the fallout of the Verizon-iPhone deal includes a slowing down of Android’s momentum.

There’s no doubt that Verizon’s strong endorsement of Android-based smartphones has been a big boon for Google’s open source mobile operating system. In the Northeast, at least, customers often go with the Droid or other Android devices simply because Verizon’s coverage seems to be better than AT&T and Verizon to date has not offered the iPhone.

Now that has changed and Verizon will no doubt impose a more neutral position vis a vis smartphone operating systems and new talking points for its in store associates. if you have spent any time in a Verizon Wireless store over the past year, you get my point. Android is a virtual religion there.

That’s not the only factor with the potential of slowing Android sales. Google’s other open source operating system, the Chrome operating system, is late, yes, but it’s coming.  And what impact will that have on the minds of consumers?

I asked a Google PR representative to explain to me how the company will differentiate between the two open source operating systems, especially now that both ChromeOS and Android tablets will compete side by side. Here’s Google’s official response:

“Chrome OS was designed from the beginning to work across a variety of form factors. We expect to see different partners build different kinds of devices based on Chrome OS, but for this initial release we are targeting the notebook form factor.”

Some don’t see the difference between an iPad or tablet as all that different from a notebook. And as Google noted, the company does expect different partners to build different kinds of devices based on the Chrome OS. Might we see ChromeOS-based smartphones?

Consumers are left wondering which of Google’s two different open source operating systems will prevail in the marketplace. What if ChromeOS crushes Android? I know that the beauty of open source is that it gives consumers choice. But two different open source operating systems from one vendor?

That alone could cause a fair amount of confusion and delay sales. And it may also impact the purchasing decisions of consumers who understand the differences between the two platforms — but who fear they’re betting on a losing horse.  

It will be interesting to see the impact of this market development on Android, whose momentum has been acclerating to date. I have been a Droid user for more than a year but am considering a switch to the iPhone.  What can I say? The glass on my third and final Droid (covered by Insurance)  shattered when I left it in the cold and I’m not eligible for an upgrade until my contract expires in September.

Why not give the iPhone a whirl?

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Topics

Paula Rooney is a Boston-based writer who has followed the tech industry for almost two decades.

Disclosure

Paula Rooney

Paula Rooney owns no stock in the companies that she covers. She holds a 401K that is managed by Morgan Stanley.

Biography

Paula Rooney

Paula Rooney has covered the software and technology industry for more than 20 years, starting with semiconductor design and mini-computer systems at EDN News and later focused on PC software companies including Microsoft, Lotus, Oracle, Red Hat, Novell and other open source and commercial software companies for CRN and PCWeek. She received a silver award from the American Society of Business Publication Editors in 2005 for her profile on Linus Torvalds and edited and co-authored "Partnering With Microsoft," a book about Microsoft's channel published by CMP Publishing in 2004. Rooney graduated from the Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism in 1997. In her off time, she enjoys scuba diving, sailing, sun worshipping, running, reading, surfing (the net) and hanging out with her family. She resides on the shores of Scituate, Massachusetts.

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you would know this wasn't my first
theo_durcan 14th Jan 2011
@Loverock

2nd one?
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Yes it will. The iPhone on VZW will put a hurtin on android sales. ChromeOS is pretty much DOA so that's not really a factor.
@Loverock Davidson I cannot believe my eyes... A straight forward answer [without bragging about Microshoft nor dissing Google and Apple] from LD. Congratulations on your first sensible post!
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@browser.
Oh you must not read my posts too often otherwise you would know this wasn't my first.
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What will all of you say?

If Android keeps on selling like hotcakes (which they will, specially if Verizon offers something comparable to Motorola Atrix) What will Apple do? how will iPhones fans feel. Their last effort at turning a tide that has drowned the iPhone.

Lets wait and see, time will tell, if its a turning point for Apple or its death sentence.
@browser.
Dont believe him, he is known to lie.
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you would know this wasn't my first
theo_durcan 14th Jan 2011
@Loverock

2nd one?
@Loverock Davidson
Everything is DOA according to you, and all are doing just fine.
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The only thing DOA ......
Economister 12th Jan 2011
@Loverock Davidson

is your brain.
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considering that Android has been such a hit, so far. With Honeycomb due out in a few months, they'll have a mobile OS which will be tablet ready and a competitive alternative to iPad's iOS.
I don't see why they would want to confuse the public, unless they have a game changer and Android is just a stepping stone.
for larger devices with keyboard and mouse, the division makes a lot of sense, AND, there will be much more compatibility between ChromeOS and Android than there is between Windows Phone and full Windows, given that ChromeOS and Android use the exact same kernel.
Chrome is laughable, the term "Operating System" should not even be used to describe that lame Application. That's all it is, just a browser app locking you into lots of google beta junk.
@james347: main idea was to cage user in a browser-OS where he/she will never be able to block these blinking Google advertisements.
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Spot on
Cylon Centurion 10th Jan 2011
@denisrs

NT
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Huh? You think AdBlock/AdBlock won't work?
daboochmeister 11th Jan 2011
@denisrs - AdBlock and AdBlock+ (to name two prominent ones) work fine in Chrome, including the Chrome version in Chrome OS. They're prominently featured in the Chrome App Store, and install with 1 click.

Conspiracy Theory 101 says that your theory shouldn't fall when faced with 1 simple and verifiable fact. Pls go back to the conspiracy theory drawing board.
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No, they are not.
Cylon Centurion Updated - 10th Jan 2011
Do you have proof of this? No? Ok then.
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@DonnieBoy, as crippled systems tied "heart and soul" to Google is not what the "masses" are looking for.

ChromeOS will fill a niche, nothing worth mentioning.
plain
@DonnieBoy

I love how when we're discussion ChromeOS, the Google fanboys argue against bloat and they're all for slimming things down and simplifying the user experience. But when we're talking Android, it's all about how dumbed down the iPhone is and how awesome Google is for giving the user the whole enchilada, complexity and bloat be damned.
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ChromeOS is all the way different
codeofsilence 10th Jan 2011
Google's on the mark here, though most people haven't bothered to do the research on this one before they pipe up about this stuff.

ChromeOS is being developed to be 100% in the cloud... nothing local.

This is VERY appealing to government and business. Eventually it will be home users too that don't want to have to worry about where their data is if they lose their phone, because there won't be anything on the phone.

It's pretty compelling when you look at these cases of "lost data" via stolen notebooks.

I think they are onto something that is the future.

But that is me.

Android tablets and smartphones serve a different kindof market... and they are doing that quite handily.
@codeofsilence
It won't be very appealing to anybody, business or home users when the network goes down or the person is in a location where there is no service at all. I for one don't want to go back to the bad old mainframe days, when that went down, we all stood around drinking coffee, for lack of having anything to do. With local storage on the device, it is possible to keep working until the network services are restored. If everything is in the ?cloud?, then work grinds to a shuddering halt.
@arminw In today's primarily client/server setups, when the server goes down, nothing gets done. Oh, they can still browse the web & work in Word, but usually they need to reference documents stored on the server. We're pretty much already to the point where if the internet goes down, nothing gets done.
@arminw - this isn't your father's attempt at centralized computing/dumb terminals. They're getting it pretty right this time, eliminating the exact problem you point out. E.g., Google Docs has allowed you to work offline for a long time now -- and the HTML5 version will add back in auto-sync (which used to be there, based on Gears, but was removed about 9 months ago because maintaining the Gears-based approach started to conflict with evolving standards).

Other vendors (MS with Live, etc.) already do, or are planning on, offering the same architectural pattern, wrt/ offline/auto-sync.
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You want
Cylon Centurion 10th Jan 2011
@codeofsilence

to give Google ALL or your personal data? Personal photos, music, documents, etc. ALL of that to Google, who have total disregard for people's privacy?

No thanks.
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Donnie
Cylon Centurion 10th Jan 2011
I'm not talking web apps. I'm talking web storage.

Anyone with a brain knows that putting private data and information on the Internet (Cloud) is a BIG no-no.
code in a browser tab. Google is flying in under the radar here. Stay tuned.
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discontinued Google offerings.

I imagine your prediction will carry the same weight now as they did then.
plain
@DonnieBoy if ChromeOS is able to run c/c++ or java native applications, then I would say, it may have a shot else its pretty much DOA in my view also. On the other hand, HoneyComb looks awesome, it will fare well agianst iPad. And yes, iPhone-Verizon could affect Android sales in the short term but not long term.
@codeofsilence "This is VERY appealing to government and business"

No, it really isn't. I know that's the current talking point when it comes to the cloud, but government and businesses are interested in keeping their property and data as secure as possible and sending things over the Internet and storing things in the Cloud are not thekind of security they want. You might be able to make that argument with some home users, but I would still bet even a majority of those users are not interested. As far as "lost data" goes, most people are smart enough to back up. Those who aren't won't be any better served by the the cloud as there are numerous instances in recent memory of cloud-based systems failing and not having a backup available either.
While I can see public cloud based solutions appealing to home users and small business customers, I see government and mid-size to big businesses going to private clouds using VDI technology. In that scenario, the data is still owned and managed by the company or government and housed on their own servers. The end point devices (Laptops/phones/etc.) still have no data stored locally and are just used to access their own private virtual desktop.

Governments and big businesses would be stupid to trust their data to a third party. Small business will probably continue to utilize public cloud solutions simply because it is too costly to implement a private cloud with their limited resources. However, even then as costs go down, I see public cloud computing becoming more of a home user base.
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The Verizon iPhone deal will probably have an inpact
John L. Ries Updated - 10th Jan 2011
I think that we can safely assume that Verizon will no longer be able to actively promote Android (if it's not written into the contract with Apple, then somebody messed up), though they'll certainly continue to sell phones preloaded with it.

I don't think ChromeOS matters one way or the other.
@John L. Ries If you SERIOUSLY believe that the Droid Does campaign will be derailed by a single phone .. even the iPhone .. then you should try to get a job as a pundit for ZDNet or any other chatter site because it's NOT going to happen. Before the Droid 1 took off VZW was having issues and Vodefone was talking about dumping their part of VZW. They were losing customers to Sprint and TMO .. as well as to AT&T. It's Android that has made Big Red the absolute Juggernaut it is at the moment. VZW may get a bunch of Blackberry users to switch to the iphone and pick up the disgruntled AT&T users to fill this 6-12 million sold projection .. but I don't see Android users flocking in droves to the iPhone. Maybe this would be the case a year ago but not now .. especially if it's only 3G and VZW is pushing the hell out of LTE.

Anyway ... there are hundreds of reasons why the title to this article is just a stab in the dark without evidence.
@ben@... THIS Blackberry user (and his wife) can't wait to switch to 'Droid...just waiting for the CES hardware and LTE pricing/availability schedule to finalize.
@ben@... All three droid x users I know including myself are ready to jump to the iPhone. My wife hates my droid x and has been waiting for this. I suspect we are not alone.
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Just so you know...
John L. Ries 10th Jan 2011
@ben@...
...I recently got an Android and like it (but my carrier is Sprint). The question was will the Apple-Verizon deal slow Android's momentum, not whether I want it to. Since Verizon is no longer in a position to promote it openly, I think it must.

The question was not also whether Android users will switch en masse to the iPhone, though I've no doubt that some Verizon users that couldn't stomach AT&T might be now be tempted to buy one. I would think, though, that the vast majority of those who really wanted an iPhone have already bought one. It's even possible that a large percentage of those who jailbroke their iPhones to escape AT&T are Verizon customers (maybe now Apple will welcome them back).
ChromeOS is the next best thing to sliced bread (because he has an interest in promoting it) but I don't see it being much of anything disruptive, and will be surprised if it's still talked about 12 months from now.

Now, the iPhone on Verizon I think will definatelly put a hurting on Android sales, regardless of what SJVN will want us to believe, no matter whether Verizon is activelly allowed to promote Android, or not.
all will be in ChromeOS, giving just enough information to throw off the competition. I imagine that there will be a lot of surprises when ChromeOS arrives.
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Not so fast Donnie
Cylon Centurion 10th Jan 2011
Despite what is known so far, ChromeOS has failed to excite people (Except Chris Dawson, but that's nothing new).

All my techie friends, all the people I chat with IRC, tech forums, etc, all have pretty much rebuffed it. It's DOA. If Google can't excite the techies, they won't be able to excite the public.
It will be everyday consumers that use ChromeOS though.
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Not all of us
Cylon Centurion 10th Jan 2011
Are Windows users, I have friends that use Apple and various Linux distros.

Despite our differences in operating systems, one thing is for sure, we all don't trust Google, and we don't trust web storage. We ALL want local storage.
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in that there is no future for ChromeOS, shy of a short one.

When you start resulting to calling those that disagree with you "propeller head", then it would be safe to assume you have no logical rebuff in support of ChromeOS to counter with.

The masses do not want to be subservient to a company like Google when both Windows and Linux based systems can do everything that ChromeOS can do, plus more if needed.

And both for the same price without having to rely on Google.

plain
The flood of Verizon 4G LTE dual core phones that were shown at CES and are coming during the next 2 months will make anyone buying an iPhone look like a mental lunatic. Android has already surpassed the iPhone and iOS in every measure and will continue to do so in 2011. Nobody is stupid enough to throw money away when the same money or less can get you a 4G LTE dual core super fast super expandable phone with TRUE multitasking and an alarm that works and does not drop phone calls like the iphone does.
@larryvand A little bit of insight for you, what you want does not equate to what everyone else wants. From what I have read most of what was demoed at CES is 6 months or further out (just what I ready, not confirmed) and by then the next iPhone will be available which may or may not surpass those. Regardless of if it does or not the iPhone will sell great on Verizon and eat into some Android sales. Will it be a huge number, we don't know. The average consumer who are the ones buying most smartphones don't care about most everything you said. Sure Android based phones from numerous manufacturers on all carriers have outsold the iPhone on one carrier but not the single carrier days have passed.
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Android is Safe
trickytom3 Updated - 10th Jan 2011
If Honeycomb weren't awesome,( which it really seems to be) Android tablets might be in trouble; but given the videos that I've seen, I think that Apple has some serious competition on the horizon.

Microsoft tablets are a dead issue; they just won't appeal to the same market as iOS and Android Honeycomb. People want and "instant on" device that is easy to use and has great battery-life...Microsoft tablets simple can't deliver those things.

The deciding factor is - as usual - going to be price. Unless Apple drops the iPad price considerably, it's going to be very difficult to compete against a carrier-subsidized $350 Motorola Xoom running Honeycomb. In addition, the new iPad is going to have to be a bit more "connective"... I'm tired of Apple inventing new input connectors just so they can sell me an expensive adapter.

Given the opportunity to get a Xoom PLUS a year's worth of wireless broadband for the price of the iPad 3g alone, I think that most people would opt for the Xoom.
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carrier subsidy
banned from zdnet 12th Jan 2011
@trickytom3
you understand what that means? another 2 year contract for your tablet and you pay the full price of the device anyway. it is actually the other way around, people prefer paying $100 more upfront for not having to get into another 2 year contract. just look at the att contract apple is offering with the ipad: no contract, monthly cancelation option. that is what people want. any vendor that tries to chain their tablet offering to carrier subsidies is doa. just look at the sad state of the galaxy tab.
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Chrome OS is for enterprise
letowskie 10th Jan 2011
Agree totally with the above response: Chrome OS will only play in the medium to large business market, where security and IT management will be the key to its adoption. It's basically functioning as a cloud based thin client in a portable form-factor, exactly what IT departments of large firms want. For most markets, it is dead on arrival, and pretty much irrelevant for the consumer markets.

As for VZW iphone, it's estimated to have about 2.5 - 5 million additional iphone sales, with another 3.5 - 6 switching from ATT. So we should expect the Android shipments on VZW to be revised down by 2.5 - 5 units for the next 24 months.
Google is trying to fly in under the radar, and I have a feeling that ChromeOS will be a very big surprise. The more I learn about native client, the more I like it. It will enable us to compile C/C++ applications for ChromeOS and run them in a safe environment.
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It will
Cylon Centurion 10th Jan 2011
@DonnieBoy

Also force us to store information in the cloud. This is also a company that also has total disregard for privacy.
ChromeOS. Android will be touch devices, without keyboard, say 12 inches or smaller. ChromeOS would have at least nearly full size keyboard and 10 inches or larger screen. But, it would be nice for Google to be clear about it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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