Tech Broiler

Jason Perlow and Scott Raymond

Next-Gen Android tablets still can't hang with iPad on price

By | January 24, 2011, 9:17am PST

Summary: There’s definitely an effect that Apple is generating, but it’s not a Reality Distortion Field. It’s a Price Equalization Effect.

Apple’s advantage with the iPad? It’s a Price Equalization Effect.

Back in November, ZDNet Editor-In-Chief Larry Dignan made an astute observation about the state of Android tablets — they can’t compete with the iPad on pricing. Not a single one of them.

Over the weekend, preliminary pricing emerged on the new Motorola XOOM, which looks to be the first legitimate iPad competitor in terms of feature set. It’s an awfully nice sounding device, using Google’s latest Honeycomb 3.0 version of Android, with a dual core nVidia Tegra 2 processor, high-resolution 10.1″ screen, plenty of memory, and doodads galore.

The problem? Its unsubsidized full retail price at big box retailer Best Buy is likely to be close to $699.

My colleagues at ZDNet are split on whether the XOOM’s pricing will make for a lukewarm reception in the marketplace. Jason O’Grady attempts to compare it to the existing iPad as well as the yet to be announced iPad 2. Matthew Miller insists we look at the specs of the XOOM itself and compare Apples to… uh, Apples, and that Cupertino’s “Reality Distortion Field” has clouded everyone’s judgement.

There’s definitely an effect that Apple is generating, but it’s not a Reality Distortion Field. It’s a Price Equalization Effect. Apple is therefore PEEing on their competitors’ tablet device parades.

When the original iPad was announced in January of 2010 for $499 for the base 16GB Wi-Fi model, that set the watermark for what ALL tablets should cost, regardless of specifications and speeds and feeds. That’s the entry point, period. As a competitor you either come in at that price with better specifications, or you come in lower. Not higher with the same, and absolutely not higher with less.

Right now, we have no idea what the iPad 2 specifications may be, even though we can take a bunch of educated guesses about what might be under the hood. But I think we can safely say that trying to compare the XOOM to the existing iPad that is on sale today is a futile exercise at best, since we’re very likely to get an iPad 2 announcement over the next few weeks, just before the XOOM ships.

One thing we can say about Apple is that they are fairly consistent about keeping prices standardized for base models across their product lines when they do yearly refreshes. So I don’t expect the base model iPad 2 to cost much more than the one that is currently being sold.

We might see a slight variation, perhaps as much as a $50.00-$100 increase as we’ve seen with some of their other products, but I’m not expecting a $200.00 jump. Apple isn’t suicidal, at the end of the day they want to move product. Apple also has the flexibility in that it can offer different flavors of the iPad (16GB/32GB/64GB, Wi-Fi/3G) to fit different consumer profiles and price points, as well as having a superior distribution channel overall.

Apple has not disclosed how their sales breakdown of the iPad went last year in terms of how many of each model were sold, but if I were a betting man, I would say that around 40 percent of their channel inventory was the $499.00 model and the rest was a mix of the medium and higher-end models.

Motorola and even companies like Toshiba, RIM, Dell and HP don’t have the flexibility that Apple has in offering six different flavors of the same tablet device. At best, most of these companies can do two, one with 3G/4G and one without. Perhaps a 7″ and a 10″, such as what some of the Taiwanese/Chinese Tier 2 firms that exhibited new products at CES 2011 are doing.

That makes their ability to compete that much more difficult, since they have to put all their efforts into marketing one or two models, and it eventually has to force them down closer in price to entry-level iPad territory.

What does this mean for you and the consumer? I think it means that we can count on some very hard pricing decisions being made by companies like Motorola in the near future if they want to stay in the tablet game.

Are the prices of full-size Android 3.0 tablets going to equalize with the release of the next-generation iPad? Talk Back and Let Me Know.

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Jason Perlow, Sr. Technology Editor at ZDNet, is a technologist with over two decades of experience integrating large heterogeneous multi-vendor computing environments in Fortune 500 companies.

Disclosure

Jason Perlow

My Full-Time Employer is IBM. I write as a freelancer for ZDNet.

Disclaimer: The postings and opinions on this blog are my own and don't necessarily represent IBM's positions, strategies or opinions.

I own no investments or direct financial instruments in the companies I write about.

Biography

Jason Perlow

Jason Perlow, Sr. Technology Editor at ZDNet is a technologist with over two decades of experience with integrating large heterogeneous multi-vendor computing environments in Fortune 500 companies. A long-time computer enthusiast starting the age of 13 with his first Apple ][ personal computer, he began his freelance writing career starting at ZD Sm@rt Reseller in 1996 and has since authored numerous guest columns for ZDNet Enterprise and Ziff-Davis Internet. Jason was previously Senior Technology Editor for Linux Magazine, where he wrote about Open Source issues from 1999 to 2008.

In his spare time, Jason is an avid amateur chef and food writer, where his work reviewing New Jersey restaurants has appeared in The New York Times. He is also the founder of the popular food web site eGullet and blogs about restaurants and cooking at OffTheBroiler.com.

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RE: Next-Gen Android tablets still can't hang with iPad on price
JACOBSONR 14th Oct
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It's interresting that you point out that iPad comes in different flavor, then criticize the competition for not being competitive on price with only the most basic model of iPad.

If you were to compare the model iPad that most closely matches the Xoom xpecifications, then suddenly the competition is in the ballgame.

The problem, as you point out, is that the competition is entering without the base wifi only models that meet the low-end pricing threshold. I agree that the Android devices from multiple manufacturers will be hurting until they have products that can compete at all feature/price levels - and for now, the first true Android tablet (at least, the first to use a verion of the OS that Google promotes for tablet use) will be using 3G, making it only trully comparable to iPads that have 3G capabilities.

Will future variants of the Xoom (or other tablets) be wifi-only and be priced competitively with the lower-end iPads? No idea here - but until they can effectively compete at both the full-featured and the base-model ranges, the Android tablets will be at a competitive disadvantage. Time will tell. But that's a slightly different position than the one that you are taking.
Android tablets MUST compete for the 499 price point or die.
@DonnieBoy
I would even say they need to be $399. Your run of the mill consumer is not going to jump on a little known Android when they can have the iPad for the same price. Look at the Zune, basically the same as an iPod but no one wants a Zune when they can get the original for the same price. Android is going to have to beat the price to gain a foot hold.
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NT.
@DonnieBoy
Another good response, what happened to you lately? Your responses are becoming more matured anyway. Yes, Apple needs more memory, but Android Tabs must meet the rest of hardware like display, Galaxy Tab nowhere it matches iPad gen1 for that matter, and the price is heavy. I can get a iPad with 3G and WiFi with 16GB lesser than Galaxy Tab without contract. Also I have a facility to not get charged when I am not using AT&T 3G, OTOH I have to be on Data Contract with Galaxy Tab providers and becomes heavy monthly. I know this first hand because i own both.
@Kabcock
The first thing is anyone who pays over $199.99 for a tablet is retarded from the jump as there is no point as they aren't worh it especially the ipad. You then say look at the Zune which is an all around better device then the ipod and costs less.The zune loks better sounds better and runs better not to mention alot less fragile. point being tablets over $200 just arent worth it but it does allow the world to spot idiots quicker as they carry those worthless $600 devices around in a stupper. lol
  • Flagged
@Fletchguy How about you put a disclaimer before your post..."The following is based solely on the opinion of an obvious small minded hater".
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@DonnieBoy After XOOM inaugurates Honeycomb with a super high-end device, we will see a lot of lower-end tablets from different manufacturers.

ASUS said they will release a dual-core+honeycomb one starting at $399.

I bet HTC will also have an entry-level one.

And Motorola said they will release an lower-end, Wi-Fi only version; I think it will be priced to compete with the $499 iPad, and released close to the iPad 2 announcement, just to steal some spotlight.

The most important thing for Android right now is to focus on marketing the improved user experience. By the time lower-end Honeycomb tablets are out, users will already be amazed by the gorgeous interface and saying things like "I want a tablet with that slick holographic visual".

For now, they just need to build awareness. Have you noticed that rumors about the iPad 2 disappeared recently, or are too boring compared to every leak or news about Honeycomb? Posts like this, and the fact that Honeycomb is being hyped on every tech blog on the planet through rumors and news and leaks, is a sign that Honeycomb is in the right path to build good user awareness.

When the entry level devices from ASUS, HTC, Samsung, Dell, Motorola, Toshiba etc hit the market, users will be in love with Honeycomb and it'll be a huge hit.
@DonnieBoy You're a born loser on this subject DonnieBoy. Those that make the parts set the price. If it's on quanity, the supplier wins on any comparable device. If the supplier (like Samsung) makes the parts for your device (iFad and iPwn'd4), then they not only make money selling you, your parts but selling their devices too. Samsung broke all time records for their Electronics Division alone. Don't forget they are the #1 Multinational Electronics Conglomerate on the planet compared to #19 by asset value. Meaning that artificially overvalued Market Cap of CrApple is as bogus as a three dollar bill! wink ....and that's just one of the companies CrApple has to worry about. CrApple own iCrAppleholic Stock Guru says Android phones and TABLETS will eventually rule the planet!

Acer w/ it's two Dual Core Tablets says (#2 computer company in world)!
"In August, the chairman of Acer predicted that Apple's iPad will eventually drop to just 20 percent of the total tablet market when competing options are introduced. He said Apple's "closed platform" iOS mobile operating system will ultimately be the downfall of the iPad."

Even Gene Munster says Android will go ahead of iOS Tablets!
http://www.intomobile.com/2010/10/11/android-tablets-outsell-ipad/
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@Kabcock Um.

"Little known" Android? Normally I don't care about "keeping up with the Joneses" (they don't pay my cell phone bill, I've noticed), but Android has rapidly overtaken almost every other smartphone OS. Android is TIED with iOS and RIM for total market share. To say Android is "little known" is obviously incorrect.
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But why it does not matter...
Bruizer 24th Jan 2011
@DBEvans

You can offer an option that no one wants and make other options more attractive. People will compare the iPad's WiFi only price to the 3G Android's price every time when making the decision because we do not really control all of our thought processes like we think we do:

http://www.ted.com/talks/dan_ariely_asks_are_we_in_control_of_our_own_decisions.html
@DBEvans The thing that will kill the Xoom is that Apple will move the 16 GB current WiFi iPad down to $399 and start the new one at 32 GB at $499. Gonna be tough to compete with that. Even more tough if Verizon sells a cheap MiFi like now also.
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Exactly
johnelberling@... 24th Jan 2011
@tymiles: very astute observation. yes, that is what Apple did with the iPhone 3GS when iPhone 4 came out. SOP. cuts the low end bargain-shopper competition off at the knees.

and the Samsung Galaxy tab has consumed most of the Android fanboy/early adopter market already too, who were willing to pay a premium price and wait for real tablet apps just to get an Android thingee. that doesn't leave much of a hard core buyer market for a $700 Xoom now. just the rich kids.
@DBEvans
Viewsonic gTablet - $379 - All the features of the base iPad + Tegra2 dual core ARM processor, camera, real USB ports, SD expansion, etc. And, being an Android device, it can be rooted and customized in any way you want, which is a good thing, since the Tap-n-Tap shell that comes on the thing stinks. Though, the latest update made it a wee, tiny bit more useable.
@Dr. John But as with all Tegra 2 tablets that have come out so far it has hardware issues.
@tymiles
I've had zero issues with mine. And, none of the others I personally know that have one have had any issues, either. I did, however, have to exchange two iPads for having no battery life, at all.
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the product is DOA in the consumer space. This is something the tech head talkbackers here will NEVER understand.
@Dr. John
The key thing is the utter simplicity of tablets+apps. frgough is spot-on. Rooted and customised? Tablet users want something they can poke with a finger and it does stuff. If I want to do computer things, I use my high end custom PC. If I use my iPad, I want it to operate with moronic simplicity. It does, and is a brilliant holiday companion. If I want to edit video, or produce slick presentations, PC.
@DBEvans sorry but the competici?n hard times are not over, it's not because they don't have a comparable product or better the thing have to do more by the side of compromise, first with the size, then with the carriers and the worst part is with the profits which is key in the equation, like Jason has point out, the six flavors gives Apple a huge flexibility because of that the can sell and entry level at 499 which I'm pretty sure is partly subsidized by the other models, which is I think why they charge a lot more for 3G models, unless the competion can match price points with at least four flavors they are in serious trouble trying to match sales even with this so called "better tablets". And the nightmare continues when iPad 2 comes out and the entry level price goes further down if they keep one of the first generation models still for sale like the iPhones as TYMILES has point out before me.
@DBEvans
If it were wifi only then I think it would bet the iPad but what about the "rumored" iPad2 to release this year. Whats that gonna cost and whats the specs on it? Compare prices then and see which is better.
The iPad dominance will continue.
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Contributr
@DonnieBoy Netbook, maybe not. But $400-$500, yes.
have an iPad for a small premium, not many will not consider Android.
@jperlow
iPad can't be a laptop replacement, though. You have to tether it to a computer running iTunes. Android devices need no such tether.
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@droid101
frgough 25th Jan 2011
No you don't. It's stupid not to for backups, but you never have to tether it to iTunes or a computer to use the device.
@Droid101 Your cherry picking doesn't work. Neither the iPad or the competition for Android based tablets have ever been marketed as laptop replacements. If you do not have a PC running iTunes you can simply go to the store to activate the device. You won't get future updates or have backups without tethering to a PC with iTunes from time to time but your Android fanboys status doesn't change the fact you don't have to have a PC to use a iPad.
@DonnieBoy

But Donnie we have had seven inch $100 Android tablets at WalGreens Drug stores this XMAS. Now they have gone up past $200 but that is still way under the iPad $500 price point. Why isn't WalGreens selling millions of these pretend iPads?

Is it because astute purchasers could nail the real iPad 1 16GB for $429?
@vic.healey@... You talking about the Maylong brick? That thing was such a dog it wasn't funny...

Picked one up, played with it for about two weeks, the sluggishness and slowness was just too much to deal with....installed multiple android versions that had been optimized for it, still had bad response, and the batter time...WOOF...it was HORRIBLE....even with wireless turned off the battery lasted maybe two hours tops...not a good device.
@vic.healey@...
Have you read about the Walgreen tablet? It sounds like a complete waste of money. I believe Jason P. even bought one and wrote a review of it. This shouldn't even count as a legitimate tablet.
@vic.healey@... Cruz eReader is $99 at Best Buy on sale. My wife loves hers. Not nearly as full-featured as an iPad, but it does enough to make her happy.
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And the iPad is still overpriced. Actually I won't limit it to just the iPad, all tablets are overpriced.
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@Loverock Davidson

I completely concur. All tablets are over priced. I used the Lenovo Netbook I bought for $150 much more than my iPad. Both the iPad and the Samsung Tab are ridiculously overpriced for what they do.

If the Notion Ink Adam actually lives up to its promise, then I'll finally buy a decent tablet this year. Else I'll just wait for the price of the tablets to fall to the $300-$350 range. Until then, my rooted Nook Color will do fine.

And by the way, the Notion Ink Adam with much better specs costs less than the iPad.
@os2baba Problem is what will you do with your Notion Ink if there is an issue with it? How would you get support. Big issue. You gonna send it back to India for repair? Hummmmmm. Think for that much money I would be scared to have an issue.
@Loverock Davidson

Quick the asians are waiting your expertise as to how to get their cost down to where your statement is true. Don't waste you valuable time here. Prove it.
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I don't know. Seems like this article was written by an iPad owner
Dietrich T. Schmitz, ~ Your Linux Advocate Updated - 24th Jan 2011
Personally, I think you've missed that iPad will continue to recede as ubiquitous Android devices continue to be introduced.

Supply/demand will continue to put pressure on price downward and iPad simply won't be able to differentiate by virtue of its limitations.

Take the Samsung Galaxy Tab for example:

http://www.androidcentral.com/samsung-galaxy-tab-vs-apple-ipad

The speed with which technology changes is going to be a primary determinant in whether iPad has a sustainable market against the backdrop of an Android steamroller headed Apple's way.

How many skus are there for Android products now? I've lost count. Android is a steamroller baby. No stopping it.
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Contributr
@Dietrich T. Schmitz, Your Linux Advocate In smartphones I think Android has a distinct advantage as there are carrier subsidization issues in play as well as other factors that are different from the tablet market. But it's going to take a long time for Android to usurp iPad's position on mass market consumer tablets as well as significant pricing changes.
@jperlow
Android phones are holding their own against the iPhone outside of US, where there is no price advantage (phones often being free on contract) and no AT&T-like exclusivity holding Apple back.
@jperlow
Um, no. Wouldn't iPhones have the advantage, because they only show as "$200" to customers, even though Verizon/AT&T pay $800 for them.
@Droid101 What about all the free Android phones with new contracts and the buy-one-get-one-free promotions? Carriers are throwing Android phones at people to move them (not saying they are bad, but when carriers are pushing phones like this it should be expected that Android on phones would surpass the iPhone).
@jperlow

I agree with Jason... This isn't a carrier subsidized game of BOGO where they give Roids to anyone who will take one... The Tablet market is completely different..

And... Each new Malware infest Roid that hits the market adds to the already fragmented Roid product line... Currently you can only hope for an update once a year (a long time to wait for a bug/vulnerability to be patched). Given that Roid apps are as unsafe and malware prone as you can get, there is a very compelling reason for anyone with a brain cell to stay away from Roid regardless of price.

Roid-pads have to beat Apple on price by a country mile because they don't have the apps and none of apps in the Roid store have ever been screened for quality, malware, viruses, identity stealers, etc.

Roid already lost on apps, user experience, and customer service. If they can't beat iPad on price, then they don't have a snowballs chance in he11.
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Straight out conjecture or lie?
Bruizer 24th Jan 2011
@Dietrich T. Schmitz, Your Linux Advocate

iPad will continue to recede 80% in less than 9 months. How is that "continue to recede"?

All you have to do is look at the overall poor sales of the Galaxy Tab. 1.5 million units shipped in 3 months with 1 month of inventory. This actually implies about 1 million sell through or 333,333 units/month. Compare that to almost 75,000 iPads/day. Have you seen Samsung's sad financials?

Explains how Samsung is getting spanked on its home turf by Apple:

http://articles.latimes.com/2011/jan/22/business/la-fi-iphone-korea-20110122

You have to love this quote from S. Korea's tech czar:
"Hwang Chang-gyu admitted that he owned both phones. Then he dropped a bombshell: He actually preferred his iPhone, calling it "more convenient" than its homegrown competitor. "The reason we couldn't make a smart phone like iPhone is that we don't know how to shoot ahead," he said."

It is funny you point to the hundreds of SKU being a positive. Even with all those SKUs out there, Android is activating less than 80% of the iOS devices every day baby. That means, most of these SKU's are losers. Like Windows Mobile in its heyday...

Windows Mobile had 50 SKUs/month with over 1800 currently available phones. Was its stopped baby?

Even after Android's "break out year", it is getting spanked to the curb by iOS. iOS is activating more units to the iTMS every day (380,000/day for Oct-Dec time frame) VS Android's 300,000/day for December time frame.
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You have to be myopic not to see the transition
Dietrich T. Schmitz, ~ Your Linux Advocate 24th Jan 2011
@Bruizer

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ac/20110104/us_ac/7521676_samsung_galaxy_s_sales_pass_10_million_and_galaxy_tab_1_million

We are looking at one vendor's figures and when you combine sales figures from all OEMs put together, well, I am afraid Apple's iPad doesn't stand a chance and in the long run they will continue to recede relative to overall Android sales growth rates.

You just have to open your eyes.
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My eyes are very open...
Bruizer 24th Jan 2011
@Bruizer

You never responded to your lie (since you failed to respond, I am going to call it a lie at this point) of:

"continue to recede"

How do you consider receding going from 0% to 80% market share in less than 9 months?

You may mean "Will begin to recede" and that may be accurate but to simply say "continue to recede" implies that it is not growing market share when it currently is.

Likewise, having lots of SKUs does not guantee success as all you have to do is look at WinMo to see how that worked out.

Also note, the Galaxy Tab sales (Galaxy S is doing very well) is pretty anemic and is Samsung sales to partners and not partner sales to end users. Apple tends to keep about 2 weeks inventory in the pipe. Data for the Tab points to about 1 month inventory (almost stuffing).
@Bruizer

The big trouble with Android smartphones and tablet devices is all the different manufacturers and differing capabilities. Given way too much choice, it is far easier to just buy an iPhone or iPad. I know Apple will be around to support me, but how do I know that my chosen Android vendor will still be around or supporting the platform in two or three years?
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@tad0900

"but how do I know that my chosen Android vendor will still be around or supporting the platform in two or three years?"

Android/Linux advocates are banking on you not knowing. That unknown untrusted vendor pushing that cheapo tablet to unsuspecting consumers are adding to the Android pool/market share (like with smart phones). To them, that's all that matters. Just take a look at Samsung, their current Galaxy Tab won't be getting any Honeycomb support. Just a few months after being released (greedily rushed out) in the market and early users won't see any updates to the official tablet OS, Honeycomb. Crying shame! But so what if early users are getting shafted, Samsung is adding to that market share pool/number.

Forget that Apple's iPad will continue be the most recognizable brand, or the most satisfactory device (currently 95%), or continue to provide users with the most content from (iTunes, Apps), highest resale value, the best support at Apple stores and elsewhere, most accessory and aftermarket products (mindshare is key). Forget that the iPad is not tied to carriers, having to rely on subsidy to hide the real cost. iPads are sold everywhere now and cheaper than many competitors!

Forget that Apple is the largest buyer of NAND FLASH by a wide margin, accounting for 20%-25% of the world's supply. Or that it has locked down much of the world's touch screen manufacturing capacity. Or that they've recently invested heavily in making sure they have the advantage there. They've learnt allot from the iPod. But none of that matters because a bunch of Tablets each running a varient of the Android OS will collectively destroy the single iPad.

Get real!
@Bruizer Apple went from 0% to 100% and then down to 80%. They're not counting expensive Windows tablets in this, only touch-based low cost tablets.. the market that Apple "created" (well, about a dozen were shown off at CES 2010... only a handful, though, had actually shipped before CES 2011).
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@Dave@

There were Android tablets months before the iPad. Sorry to bust your bubble.
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I concur...
bbrucec 24th Jan 2011
@Dietrich T. Schmitz, Your Linux Advocate

Good analysis on what happened to iPhone vs Android cell phones.

The problem is that right now there is a *huge* pent up demand for Android tablets and only one great tablet (Galaxy Tab), soon to be only one great full sized Android Tablet (Xoom) ... prices will stay with what the market can bear.

But, as with all PC laptop vs. MacBook comparisons, very soon we will see not only far more variety of hardware on the Android tablet side, but far deeper discounts as the number of competitors in that market explodes.

Just like with the phones, I'm convinced within a couple of years Android Tablets as a collective will hold much more market share than iPads but probably no *single* Android tablet device will be close.
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@bbrucec

Huge pent up demand?

That statement is based on a blinkered view of people who inhabit tech sites.

Last year before the iPad was launched there was no "pent up demand" for tablets, and now you're saying there is.

Apart from Apple's iPad what changed?
Good day to confirm this comment I would appreciate T h e b e s t o f Z D N e t d e l i v e r e d your website very nice to everyone Yes, Oracle is the only one with shared-disk architecture, but that is there advantage. It means you can add or remove nodes and the database lives on. In a shared nothing architecture, if you lose a node, you lose the system. I'm sure Oracle appreciates EMC highlighting their advantage.I also desire to signal in your RSS feeds. Thank you as soon as once again and maintain up the great operate Awesome post! Thank you very much || thanks for nice content this is really benefit to me.

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