Six big trends to watch in 2011

Six big trends to watch in 2011

Summary: Contrasting cross-currents are going to make 2011 a fascinating and turbulent year, in which SaaS enters the tornado and mobile enters the bowling alley at the very same time as cloud trips over the chasm.

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I've long been a fan of Geoffrey Moore's classic business books about the evolutionary path taken by emerging technologies and the companies that champion them. Especially now that several of the key emerging technologies I follow are at such different stages of their evolutions. These contrasting cross-currents are going to make 2011 a fascinating and turbulent year, one in which SaaS enters the tornado and mobile enters the bowling alley at the very same time as cloud trips over the chasm. I've decided to highlight six trends in enterprise computing for the coming year, but here's a seventh prediction: middle-of-the-road analysts and pundits will find it even harder than ever to make any sense of everything that's going on right now.

1. Mainstream means mobile

For many years, mobile has been a peripheral afterthought when developing enterprise applications. Even when running in a browser, the laptop or desktop PC has been the primary user platform, and a mobile client was always an option at best. In 2011, there's going to be seismic shift. Significant numbers of enterprise software vendors will upend their development priorities and develop for mobile first, desktop second.

2. Fake cloud #fails the crowd

It should be no surprise to find me predicting that so-called 'private cloud' will disappoint. Cloud computing has ridden to the peak of the Gartner hype cycle, and fake cloud is now leading the way into the trough of disillusionment. Vendors and enterprises seeking to capture the benefits of cloud computing without understanding the core principles will come a cropper, and cloud's reputation will suffer accordingly, even if undeservedly.

3. IT management gets wired to the cloud

The days when cloud computing came in an unaccountable black box are drawing to an end. Enterprise buyers rightly demand oversight and governance of their computing, even if hosted by a provider. Instead of take-it-or-leave it service levels, there's a new trend towards visibility and accountability. Examples include RightNow's Cloud Services Portal or the detailed reporting and governance built into managed cloud offerings from the likes of OpSource and Rackspace. 2011 will see instrumentation bringing new depth and detail to cloud and SaaS offerings.

4. Data just wants to be mined

The volume of data being accumulated every day is exploding, and it's yielding huge new value for those who know how to mine and refine it. This emerging new value equation is changing the relationship between data and security, as Wikileaks has shown. Governments and corporations today (not to mention consumers) are sitting on rich seams of data whose value they have barely realized. Others are mining that wealth, whether openly or surreptitiously. I can't put it better than I wrote back in 2006: "Value comes from the views that you create to filter, join and represent data — whether it's your data or someone else's (more often the latter)."

5. Social technologies remake enterprise apps

The ability to collaborate in real time, to instantly initiate conversations or to develop a thread across follow-the-sun timezones — all these capabilities are bringing people together in new ways that cut across the old business processes of industrial-era enterprise applications. The old way was to put the organization and its process automation first. Now applications are being remade to put people at the center of process and have automation serve their needs. The outcome will break down the old silos of resource-centric process management, to replace them with new, people-centric automation stacks.

6. Business transformation becomes the big story

The tech industry is obsessed with its pursuit of the new, new thing. In 2011 the new, new thing is not a technology at all, but a new way of doing business that's enabled by all of the above. The new year's most telling innovations will not be in mobile, cloud or social technologies but in how smart, entrepreneurial business people adapt to the potential that blossoms from those technologies.

Topics: Virtualization, CXO, Cloud, Emerging Tech, Enterprise Software, Hardware, Mobility, Servers, Software

Phil Wainewright

About Phil Wainewright

Since 1998, Phil Wainewright has been a thought leader in cloud computing as a blogger, analyst and consultant.

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15 comments
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  • RE: Six big trends to watch in 2011

    All adds up to less Windows, very nice.
    james347
    • RE: Six big trends to watch in 2011

      These trends are very significant as to make mobile technology more on track, thus the growing demands of cyber development are benefited not only for business but also to provide consumers the demands they want. <br><br><strong><a href="http://hlcgroup.net/areas-served/florida-2/jacksonville-florida">Mortgage Jacksonville FL</a></strong><br><strong><a href="http://hlcgroup.net/areas-served/florida-2/jacksonville-florida">Mortgage Jacksonville Florida</a></strong><br><br><strong><a href="http://MIAMI-FL-MORTGAGE.COM">Mortgage Rates</a></strong>
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  • RE: Six big trends to watch in 2011

    All great points, especially mobile application development. We are a fast growing SaaS provider and all of our clients demand mobility. <a href="http://www.bellasolutions.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">http://www.bellasolutions.com</a>
    bellasolutions
  • Mobile First

    Have you seen Luke Wroblewski's writing/presentations on Mobile First? http://www.lukew.com/ff/entry.asp?1249 He's been making a great case for it over the last year.

    Christian Pantel
    UI Product Manager at Workday
    @cpantel
    cpantel
  • RE: Six big trends to watch in 2011

    Great article, Phil. We'll continue to disagree about Private Clouds -- I see them as just a piece of cloud computing. For some they will be transitional -- a road to ever more secure and compelling public clouds; for others they will be a more permanent solution. In any case, customers and IT are going to expect to be able to mix and match public and private clouds as well as legacy apps running in data centers for a good long time, so it's enabling this hybrid environment that will be the big challenge.
    amywohl
    • RE: Six big trends to watch in 2011

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  • RE: Six big trends to watch in 2011

    Predications? Predictations? What about plain ol' Predictions?<br><br>Will 2011 bring enough corporate cash to hire a copy-editor/proofreader?
    CitizenW
    • RE: Six big trends to watch in 2011

      @CitizenW Yes, thank you :-)) Blame the headline writer, not Phil. Phil got it right
      nlyttelton
  • RE: Six big trends to watch in 2011

    Once the costs match the desired / delivered performance req's, economies of scale and the much smaller (realistic) incremental savings will probably tip things toward cloud and away from local hardware infrastructure.
    (I read the ACM journal and Wired.)
    dca
    dca3
    • RE: Six big trends to watch in 2011

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  • hmmmm

    [seems the sw won't let me delete my own post]

    ooooopsie
    dave_p1
  • RE: Six big trends to watch in 2011

    I'm with you, Phil. What's going to make cloud work is the business transformation that goes along with it. I posted a video of a session I did for Ingram Micro's Fall 2010 VTN that digs deeper into this at <a href="http://SellingCloud.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">http://SellingCloud.com</a><br><br>It's going to be a great 2011!
    mark.smith2
  • Exciting

    Very cool. Definitely agree on #6. Technology changes faster than people, we have some catching up to do in 2011!
    @...
  • RE: Six big trends to watch in 2011

    Surely mobile will lead the way. With Dysel's Everyware, service engineers can even handle their work without a connection to their laptop or mobile with our <a href="http://www.dysel.nl/Oplossingen/FieldService.aspx
    ">field service software</a>
    dyselsoftware
  • RE: Six big trends to watch in 2011

    I had a good read! However, I still think cloud computing is a great idea and not just another hype. :) I had a good experience in every cloud software that i've used. Check out http://www.msidata.com/ for mobile solutions and computing services. :)
    saisai001