Blu-ray's Hail Mary pass
Summary: The Blu-ray Disc Association (BDA) announced 2 new specs: BDXL (High Capacity Recordable and Rewritable discs) and IH-BD (Intra-Hybrid discs). Will either ever be successful?
The Blu-ray Disc Association (BDA) announced 2 new specs: BDXL (High Capacity Recordable and Rewritable discs) and IH-BD (Intra-Hybrid discs). Will either ever be successful?
What are they? BDXL is a spec for a 3 or 4 layer disk of 100 or 128 GB capacity, with the re-writeable version limited to 100 GB. Not Toshiba's 10-layer demo from last year, but a solid increase in capacity that uses the also recently spec'd 33 GB version.
The BDA says that BDXL is aimed at commercial archiving applications in media and medical and document imaging. A consumer version is also possible.
The IH-BD is something new: 1 25 GB BD-ROM layer with 1 25 GB BD-RE rewritable layer. A suggested use case:
. . . enable the user to view, but not overwrite, critical published data while providing the flexibility to include relevant personal data on the same physical disc. This allows for consumer specific applications where combining published content with related user data on a convenient, single volume is desirable.
The Storage Bits take This feels like the tech version of "Weekend at Bernie's." New specifications make it look like Blu-ray is progressing without the messy reality of actual capital investment and market acceptance.
The random access afforded by BDXL is a real advantage over tape - which now dominates media archive storage - but BDXLs much lower capacity and unproven lifespan will keep most current tape users from investing in it. There may be non-tape using niches it can harvest if the recorder and media costs are low enough, but that requires volume.
With LTO decks in the several $k range and LTO tape capacities at 2 TB or more, the BDXL media will have to come in at less than $10/disc to be competitive. That won't be easy for a niche market.
IH-BD is a "Field of Dreams" project: build it and they will come. How many people are going to add an IH-BD recorder to their home media system so they can generate gigabytes of data to go along with a commercial project?
As I noted in Optical storage: RIP:
New optical formats will get introduced - like 750 MB Zip drives and 5.7 GB Orb drives did - but they’ll stumble around the fringes of consumer acceptance before a quiet death. Many of the same forces that are killing BD - downloading, upconverting, cost - are closing in on optical media in general.
BDXL has to carve out a niche between cheap fast USB3 disks and proven and cheap-in-volume LTO tape. That won't be easy.
And if a hard-drive vendor decides to produce an archive-quality disk, that will be the end of low and slow optical in the consumer space. Give the Blu-ray gang credit for trying, but the economics and the use cases are against them.
Comments welcome, of course.
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Talkback
Blu Ray Thrives in Retail Outlets
Some of the Blu-Ray players are also hitting the $100 mark now. Isn't this really a growing market hitting mainstream? It looks that way to me.
racingmustang
you still don't get the bang for buck
I can't tell the difference on most TVs between DVD and Blue Ray.
And if you throw in the downloads, the case for blue ray is even weaker.
Blu ray's effectiveness is limited...
You hit it on the head, net delivery.
I agree...
Perception Based On Superficial Appearance
In fact, DVD outsells blu-ray 8 to 1 in revenues and 11 to 1 in units.
The latest blu-ray ploy is to try to bundle the blu-ray disk with a DVD in a two-disk package.
The problem with Blu Ray
And 3D is just a gimmick. I saw Avatar and do not remember one scene that HAD to be in 3D. It was cool, but not necessary in the least.
Another thing worth mentioning...
packaged in a blu plastic shell.
I expect to see that typical "focus" of a BR disc, where an actor or actors are
too clear and stick out of the scene too much, on every BR disc I buy. Kind
of a semi-3Dish quality. Nope, not in every case so far. Seems that a DVD
of the same movie looks identical to the same movie on BR. It would be
interesting to know if some manufacturers of BR discs are trying to pull a
fast one.
And my TV is a 1080p Plasma connected to the BRP by an HDMI cable. I
should be seeing the "focus" on every disc. Maybe some discs are just
going for clarity of backgrounds and the "focus" is just a some-of-the-time
feature on some movies, here and there.
BR quality is all over the map
I bought one of my favorite movies, Alfred Hitchcock's North by
Northwest in BR and it wasn't worth it. Slightly better picture, 2
channel sound - they were limited by the source material and they
didn't want to invest in a 5.1 remix.
OTOH, Michael Jackson's This is It is great in BR - not because of the
picture but because of the DTS-HD audio. The pro's on the
soundboard did themselves proud. I now look for DTS-HD sound - I
have a pretty good sound system - and that will sometimes tip me to
buy the BR version.
Robin
Another Problem
Consider a family with two 42-inch flat panel TVs, two DVD players, and two portable DVD players for traveling with young kids.
Replacing the installed DVD base with blu-ray plays out as follows:
Two new good blu-ray players with high user ratings for reliability, performance, and ease-of use: $250-$300 each. E.g., Panasonic or LG.
Two new portable blu-ray players: $550 each street price, discounted from $800 retail.
Total: $1,100 + $500 = $1,600 at least, plus media. Media average about $7 more per disk that DVD.
Logical conclusion: No sale.
It will be really sad if ...
Unfortunately, the mighty dollar is rearing it's ugly head again, and the uneducated masses are voting for the less expensive, lower quality product (just like Beta vs VHS, Vinyl Vs. CD Vs. MP3)
Personally, I think a few more dollars are well worth the increase in quality ... and yes, there is a rate of return, but I'm willing to pay a 50% increase in price for a 25% increase in quality - and that's only when a new product gets released - eventually, prices do come down ...
Ludo
I think you missed the point of the article
These new standards are for creating disks for archival purposes. His
point was that enterprises would not likely be giving up the tried and
true of tape archival for Blu-ray, that is unless they can make it very
cheap. Right now this is a solution looking for a problem.
I wouldn't count this out however. The book "The Innovator's
Dilemma" deals specifically with this issue. Often new technologies
are inferior and passed over by major players until they mature and
topple the previous technology. Usually the old company dies along
with the old technology as it can't adapt quickly enough. So, I'll
reserve judgement for the time being.
It could have taken over the world.
A high def player without DRM would cost $3 more than a DVD player, the blue laser is still marginally more expensive.
TripleII
That Misrepresents the Betamax - VHS Format War
1) The Betamax superiority in quality over VHS was marginal at best;
2) VHS was much more readily available to the public;
3) Most importantly, VHS was much more convenient from the start, able to tape a full 2-hour feature movie while the family went out for dinner.
By the time that Betamax redressed its recording length deficiency, it was too late. Restricted licensing and limited availability doomed the Betamax to another abject lesson in failing to address what customers really want in a product - usability, affordability, and convenience first. Then talk about the "ooohs" and "aaaahs" of format so loved by technophiles.
That is the mistake that blu-ray is repeating all over again.
Another solution looking for a problem.
RE: Blu-ray's Hail Mary pass
HDDVD/BluRay allowed them to dynamically update players to new encryption on the go.
Thats part of the reason
I Agree. The Industry Has 30 Years of Experience
- Do absolutely nothing to hinder real thieves;
- Provide significant hindrance to honest users.
Much like a bad marksman who constantly misses his mark.
Didn't work, did it?
Fry's has 2TB drives ...
My worst experience with hard drives is still orders of magnitude better than by best experiences with tapes and writable optical media.