When will the iPad replace desktops?
Summary: While an iPad can't replace a desktop system today, it will be able to - for the vast majority of users - in 5 years. Not only possible, but inevitable. Here's how.
Moore's Law and the limited demands most users have on their systems will mean an iPad-sized device will have the power to run 98% of today's workloads. Even today the iPad's limitations are mostly software, not hardware.
Docking station deluxe Apple is already shipping the how: the 27" Thunderbolt Display. With a single cable to the display users get a gorgeous higher-than-HD 2560x1440 display, Gigabit Ethernet, FireWire and USB ports, and a 40Gb/sec Thunderbolt port. Roll into work, plug in power and Thunderbolt cables and a Thunderbolt array and you've got more computing firepower than most workstations did 5 years ago.
Put a Thunderbolt port on a future Even Newer iPad and you're good to go. That's the easy part.
What workload? Most skeptics call out applications such as video editing - rendering, actually - music production and tech apps such as computational fluid dynamics as reasons that masses will never replace desktops and notebooks with tablets. But the masses don't use those apps today and they aren't about to start.
The most common corporate apps - Microsoft Office, email, browsers and project management - can be handled by any 1 GHz x86 or ARM processor. That's why notebooks are taking an ever larger piece of the market: even with slower processors, disks and smaller displays, they can do the jobs that most people need done.
The timeline Moore's Law is still doubling transistors every couple of years, and innovations like 3D chips are aiding performance. At that rate the current A5x dual-core processor in the New iPad will be a quad-core and twice as fast in 5 years.
NAND flash is also getting cheaper. So a 2017 iPad could have 256GB of flash storage - way more than what most people use - and 4GB of RAM for the same price as today's New iPad.
The limits I experimented with using an iPad to replace my notebook. It didn't work for me - but not because the hardware was too slow. A multi-tasking OS is required to flip from writing to research to mail to Skype to photo editing in a timely fashion.
True, transcoding and rendering video is slower than I'd like even on today's MacBook Air. But the rest of what I do is just as snappy as it is on my quad-core I7 iMac - or snappier - thanks to the MacBook Air's SSD.
Where the MacBook Air is today, the iPad will be tomorrow.
The Storage Bits take Desktops and notebooks aren't going away. But for the mass of consumers and corporate workers a dockable iPad with a multi-tasking OS and a larger external display will be all they need in 5 years.
If Apple can retain its current tablet market share - as they did with music players - they will own the PC market in 5 years. Soon Wintel's reign as kings of PCs will seem as quaint as IBM's '70s-era domination of the computer industry.
Comments welcome, of course. For heads-down computer workers - like me and, I suspect, many ZDNet readers, a stable and powerful workstation will always be preferred. But we're a tiny minority of computer users.
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Talkback
*sigh*
Yes, for people who consume information, a viewing-only device like an iPad is sufficient. However, for people who create the data, there will always be a need for notebooks and desktops.
Viewing only? Hardly.
Sorry Robin you are wrong
[quote]You can already shoot and edit video, do page layout and spreadsheets, as well as email and browsing.[/quote]
Sure that is very true but it is so basic and limited that it compares to the power of office suites and tools of years ago. I think more people do much more advanced work in spreadsheets, page layout, and even in video editing than you think there are. If they are doing that type of work many will do the core content creation on their computer and then do the viewing and minor modifications on the tablet. Email and web browsing I will give you because that works well on most tablets.
Of course there is always a chance an actual revolutionary advancement in tablet functionality could occur in the next 5 years but I choose to wait until there is actual proof of that happening instead of making up half-a$$ed predictions. Of course if you had a time machine then maybe this blog would be believable.
How many words per minutes does video editing work out to be?
dedicated devices
I am old enough to remember people laughing at the PC revolution
RE: Don't forget history
Not with iOS though
Too true!
Ironically, now MS is in the position IBM was in 1980.
I also am old enough
I'm not saying that the tablets of today won't get there. But look at how long it took to get PCs to the level of the older hardware when those claims were made. It will take at least that long before tablets have that kind of power.
@nfordzdn
I was there...
It is more like comparing a Smart with an SUV and an MPV, the Smart is more economical and easier to manouver in town, so why would you buy and MPV or SUV? Because you need to carry stuff around or you have a family with more than two members.
I see tablets, notebooks and desktops currently targeting very different markets. There is currently some overlap, but none of them is a 100% replacement for the others.
Ipad no but Windows 8 Slate & notebooks
A windows 8 Slate, built using the Transformer form factor ( Slate (*Tablet*), with a keyboard dock that has a large battery built in) could replace notebooks, not desktops. The reason for this is the form factor makes the Slate(tablet) an ultrabook/notebook. It addresses all of the issues above. Slates are typically larger screened and not 4:3, Windows 8 especially the x86 version will have full software support, the dock has keyboard and mouse support.
lol
Dreaming, you must be dreaming, or are you really lying about Windows. Baby, you take Steve in your arms, and though you're wide awake you think your dream is coming true.
lol.
Hmmm
You might want to tell that to the people who are making music and editing videos on Garageband and imovie, Avid Studio, and now iPhoto.
If your a hipster that likes lengthening your work time to look cool...
Windows 8 Slate on a Dual Monitor could easily replace a Desktop, not an iPad
The iPad, even if put on a dual monitor, you still wouldn't be able to run desktop apps.
The iPad would only replace the desktop for users that use simple tasks that don't require desktop apps. Which I'd have to believe is the small minority IMO.
The future is already here with the Transformer Prime
The transformer Prime is little more than a netbook...
That said, it's biggest advantage is its OS, not its hardware. Also, this comment like almost all those before it completely ignores the advances we make in technology every year. It is highly possible--in fact I expect it--that tablet OSes and desktop OSes will merge within these next three years to the point that laptops will become superfluous and the only reason to own a full desktop is if you have a full-time need for the larger display and increased processing power of the x86-series chips (or perhaps their successors if there are any.) Both Microsoft and Apple are showing moves towards making mobile computing more powerful by emphasizing their touch capabilities in a place where a keyboard is simply too much bulk. I'm not saying that tablets (slates) will totally replace desktops, but then, neither was the author of this article. Rather, it will replace the average users' need for one by offering acceptable computing power in a much easier to use form factor.
That is a good point. What does Apple use to design their iPad on
In the PC world (which includes Apple's Mac), each new PC was used to create the next generation PC.
Is this the case with the iPad, or are they still using PC's to create next generation iPads?