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Virtually Speaking

Dan Kusnetzky, Paula Rooney and Ken Hess

The Dawn of the Post-PC Era. Not.

By | September 1, 2011, 3:00am PDT

Summary: Do you think that you’re living in a Post-PC Era just because certain media types tell you that you are? Well, don’t believe it, because you aren’t.

It never gets old to see what new buzzwords this industry will spring from its bowels but this “Post-PC Era” thing is probably the most ridiculous one to date. So, we’re not using PCs anymore? Really? I’ll bet if I walk into the office of any journalist, pseudo-journalist, CXO or other buzzword-addicted entity, I’d find something very interesting: A PC–in a Post-PC Era world. Oh dear, what a dilemma.

For them, not for me.

I don’t believe that we’re living in a Post-PC Era. Nor will we in the near future. I don’t know what PCs will look like in 30 years nor do I know if they’ll exist at all. Personal computing will exist. Personal computing devices will exist. But, perhaps that will be the Post-PC Era.

I think the people who spout off about a “Post-PC Era” are dreaming, haven’t had enough sleep or perhaps have too little fiber in their diets. So, to anyone who thinks that you’re living in a Post-PC Era, relax, turn off your cell phone, put down the pipe and focus as much as possible on what you’re reading.

A “PC” is a PERSONAL COMPUTER. In 1981, the definition of a personal computer was a CRT (Monitor), a “CPU” (Box), a keyboard, a mouse and often an external modem. That boat anchor-esque pile of computer stuff was a PC. It wasn’t mobile. It sat there and was only moved to replace a component in the Box or to make way for the next generation PC to replace it.

Replacing your PC is something you had to do every year or so to stay current with technology and your friends who were buying into technology each step along the way. You replaced your 8088 system with an 8086 (XT Turbo). You replaced that XT with a 286, then you upgraded to a 386–you added a math co-processor to the 386 and four whole Megs (MB) of RAM to make it fly.

But, then came the 486 family. You had to have one of those, didn’t you?

Then came Pentium. A true computer. But, wait, you did buy the Pentium Pro, didn’t you, or did you hold out for the Pentium II, III or IV?

It wasn’t enough that you had a desktop PC, you also needed a laptop computer–a different type of PC.

Wait. What? A different type of PC? What do I mean by ‘different type’ of PC?

Oh, that’s right, PC means PERSONAL COMPUTER. Laptops definitely fall under that definition of personal computer. It’s a computer. It’s a personal technology–yep, it qualifies.

Hey, wait a minute. If laptops fall under the definition of personal computer, do tablets and netbooks?

This is fun.

Wait for it.

Yes, they do.

A tablet is a personal computer.

The definition has changed over time but it’s still a ‘PC.’

Everything evolves. Automobiles, motorcycles, telephones, trains, airplanes, televisions, radios, movie players and computers.

Are we living in a Post-Automobile Era, a Post-Television Era or a Post-Airplane Era?

Don’t be silly. Of course not. The closest Post Era thing we could be living in is a Post-Telephone Era. Phones, now called Smart Phones, resemble computers more than they do phones.

Oh, wow, could our smart phones be considered ‘PCs’ too? I won’t make you wait for this one. Yes.

Are they the future of computing? Probably not. They’re too small for efficient computing use. Are tablets the future? In some way, yes, they are. They are very portable and efficient but long-term use is still painful.

So, until someone comes up with something better than a full-sized keyboard and a full-sized monitor, it is not a Post-PC Era. There are limitations, human limitations, to what is possible–and probable–for us to handle physically.

My iPad is very cool but I can’t use it for long periods of time. It just isn’t efficient. And, to hell with trying to write an article via my iPhone. I wouldn’t attempt it unless under the most extreme circumstances or editorial duress. If you think I’m snarky and hateful now, it’s possible that neither of us would survive an article written entirely on a smart phone.

The landscape of the IT business will change, the intelligence of our telephones will change and what we think of as a PC will change. But, a server is still a server, a phone is still a phone and a PC, into whatever case or form factor you install it, is still a PC. Just because someone puts a new moniker on something doesn’t really make it a new thing.

So, in this non-Post-PC Era, enjoy your PC–irrespective of its diminutive form factor, flatness or lack of keyboard. It’s a PC.

And, it’s perfectly and politically correct to say so.

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Topics

Kenneth 'Ken' Hess is a full-time Windows and Linux system administrator with over 15 years of experience with Mac, Linux, UNIX, and Windows systems in large multi-data center environments.

Disclosure

Ken Hess

My full-time employer is EDS (HP). I write as a freelancer for ZDNet. The postings and opinions on this blog are my own and don't necessarily represent EDS's, HP's, their subsidiaries or affiliates positions, strategies or opinions. I own no investments or direct financial instruments in the companies I write about.

Biography

Ken Hess

Kenneth 'Ken' Hess is a full-time Windows and Linux system administrator with over 15 years of experience with Mac, Linux, UNIX, and Windows systems in large multi-data center environments.

Ken writes on a variety of topics including interoperability, virtualization, data center operations, databases, and open source software. He has written and co-written books on Linux, databases, and virtualization. He currently writes a System Administration column for Linux Magazine and is a regular contributor to Linux User & Developer magazine, ServerWatch.com's Trends and InfoStor. He often contributes to other online and print publications as well.

His first computer was a Commodore VIC-20, which he purchased because William Shatner was in the commercials.

In his limited spare time, Ken enjoys painting, drawing, and flinging angry birds at fortified pigs.

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I agree with everything you said. a pc is a pc no matter what form factor.
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@PriMinister I agree with you and this article. I have an iPad, I love it, but the spin that Apple likes to put on things is goofy. I remember how Jobs was insistant that a mouse only ever needed one button, that the masses couldn't handle two buttons.

Now he insists that the masses can only handle one form of interaction with a tablet: touch. Unfortunately, touch isn't the only way we interact with devices. Sometimes a stylus makes more sense. Sometimes a mouse makes more sense. Sometimes a gamepad makes more sense.

Apple likes to take features away and mock others who provide alternative input methods. I wish I could use a precision stylus on my iPad and draw real diagrams. I can't always be fingerpainting.
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The "Big Ole Box" vs. Everybody Else
dumptux Updated - 1st Sep
@PriMinister; even the "big ole box" (desktop) PC has factors that none of the other forms can match. I'm thinking particularly of the price/power ratio. Just comparing desktops and laptops; pick just about any non-premium-priced desktop (or maybe compare Apples to Apples) and try to find a laptop with comparable computing power (CPU, RAM, HD, benchmarks of your choice) for a comparable price. You won't find it. If you do, tell me where! Portable computing of any kind comes at a premium price.

A major reason for that premium price is that even the few "industry-standard" parts available for laptops (like hard drives, RAM, optical drives) have to be designed smaller and with finer precision, just to get comparable performance. That costs. That doesn't even count the proprietary parts in a laptop. If a desktop dies, we DIY geeks can get an industry-standard mobo from a variety of manufacturers that'll fit in the same box. Try that with a laptop. Try getting INTO a laptop, period! DIY doesn't work as easily (if at all) with a laptop--more often it has to be taken to a computer fixit shop. That adds cost to ownership--and the shop likely will charge more because it takes more time PLUS may have to get proprietary parts to fix it (so you're without your laptop longer than you might be without your desktop). A cost-conscious person, all other things being equal, will be drawn to a desktop.

Moving on to other devices like tablets and smartphones; generally you're looking at a different platform than anything that exists on a desktop or laptop--your choices of software change (and I'll leave it to those who have them to judge how good the selection is). A Windows PC, just for office use, has at least MS Office, WordPerfect Office, OpenOffice.org/LibreOffice, several other options PLUS everything available via the cloud (e.g. Google Docs & such). Macs and Linux PCs have multiple choices as well (which is good, since I depend on the Penguin). Are there applications for tablets (iPad, Android or others) which have comparable capabilities, much less variety of choice? The dinky screens & dinky keyboards definitely make work harder. I constantly read apologies and comments on Facebook from friends who are using a mobile device because of spelling errors, inability to copy/paste and all kinds of other limitations of the mobile platform.

I see mobile devices as niche products--for particular purposes where a full PC (desktop or laptop) would not be impractical, or where someone simply does not want the capabilities of a full PC. Collectively, the devices are supplanting some full PCs, I'm sure. But I don't see anything now or on the horizon that can truly replace the power, flexibility and economy of a full PC (and particularly the desktop). That's my 2c, FWIW.
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@dumptux
That should be "wouldn't not be impractical"
lol
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@PriMinister - Hear hear. Absolutely agree with the authors' points.
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RE: The Dawn of the Post-PC Era. Not.
lelandhendrix@... 3rd Sep
@bitcrazed Here here
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If an iPad is a PC then you all had better admit that Apple is now the biggest PC manufacturer in the USA and second largest in the world. Here's what Asymco has to say on the matter:

"Excluding iPads, Apple is very close to being 5th largest global PC vendor. Global share likely to be above 5%. Including iPads, Apple would be 2nd.

Platform year-on-year growth was Windows: +1.3%, OS X: +26%, iOS: +170%.

In Q2 2011 one million more Windows PCs were sold than in Q2 2010. In same time, 903k more OS X PCs (Macs) and 5.5 million more iPads.

Excluding tablets, nearly 50% of the global PC growth was due to the Mac. Including iPad, Apple was responsible for ~70% of the growth in the PC market in Q2."
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OK...
ddferrari 2nd Sep
@marthill So, what if Apple IS number two? What is your point, exactly? Please remember that this article is brand neutral.
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RE: The Dawn of the Post-PC Era. Not.
Hallowed are the Ori 7th Sep
@marthill

iYawn
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@PriMinister

Very important subject. Thank you and I subscribe you.

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@PriMinister I've always thought the same thing as this article. I even owned a wristwatch which had a faster processor and more RAM than my first desktop. I thought of it as a very personal computer, considering it was often attached to my person.

Basically, pundits are misusing the historically-defined term "PC." What they really mean is "big bulky computers which must be plugged into AC to operate." Even then, I disagree with their premise that those machines will disappear. There are still far too many things you simply cannot do with a highly-portable PC. Editing high-definition video or 12 megapixel images from my DSLR using my iPad 2 would be a nightmare. Rendering 30 minutes of HD video after the editing would take weeks. Yes, portable devices will get faster and higher resolution, but the next iteration of video will be 4K, bringing that new system to its knees just as badly. Plus, desktop screens just give you more space to work on high resolution content. There will likely always be tasks which require a desktop system because our requirements change just as fast as the hardware.
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RE: The Dawn of the Post-PC Era. Not.
lelandhendrix@... 3rd Sep
@PriMinister Post-PC does NOT mean SANS-PC.

We had previously REQUIRED a PC to do things that we are now doing without a PC. Want to look up information on Google? The majority now reach for their smartphone to do so than a PC. Also, we are now purchasing content on the target device rather than the procure with PC then load to device model of the past.

Yes, we know that ALL these things are computers. BUT SO IS A CALCULATOR!

When we use PC, we mean general service personal computers and not the generic "anything that computes" definition.

And since our primary computing tasks (obtaining information via web, communication, gaming and content consumption) are being done less and less on our general purpose computers and more on our mobile devices, that is what DOES marks the beginning of a post-PC *as the center of our computing activity* era.

NOBODY said that the PC was or is no-more.
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Almost exactly right.
WilErz 1st Sep
I agree with nearly everything. The exception is that I don't think a 1981 PC would have included a mouse. The Microsoft Mouse was released in 1983, but I don't think a mouse became standard on PCs until later.
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@WilErz
Didn't Xerox and Apple have 'mice' in the 70's? I think I remember reading something about that on Wikipedia (I'll have to go back there and check again). And by the criteria of the article, a Xerox or Apple machine would be considered a Personal Computer ...or am I just picking nits? {he asks with a grin on his face}
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@HawaiiBound

You wrote: "Didn't Xerox and Apple have 'mice' in the 70's?"

Nope! Xerox Palo Alto Research Center (PARC) did use mice, but it was until 1979 that Apple visited PARC, and stole the idea. The first Apple mouse appeared in 1983 alongside the monochrome Macintosh boxy and tiny computer.

~~~~~~~~~~
God will be present, whether asked or not.
{Latin Proverb}
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@WinTard
Actually Apple paid Xerox $1 million dollars in pre-IPO Apple stock for access to Xerox's technologies.

Jobs and several Apple employees including Jef Raskin visited Xerox PARC in December 1979 to see the Xerox Alto. Xerox granted Apple engineers three days of access to the PARC facilities in return for the option to buy 100,000 shares of Apple at the pre-IPO price of $10 a share.
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@Wintard

Please, don't rewrite history... you don't do it well. The Mac was in '84. The Lisa was in '83. Development on the project was in '78, prior to any visit to Xerox. For that matter, Xerox didn't invent the primary technologies in the GUI (bit mapped graphics, mouse, icons). These all predate Xerox's work. Xerox made contributions, as did Apple in parallel development. One thing's for certain, modern GUIs borrow much more from Apple's design than from Xerox's work. You also neglect to mention things like Jeff Raskin, who started the Macintosh project used to lecture at Xerox about the GUI concept, etc. I know, I know, facts often have a way making your story seem less interesting. All the same, we can't ignore the facts.
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@HawaiiBound The Xerox Alto used a mouse in the 70's. It was invented years before they started using it on their computer. Apple first began using a mouse with the Apple Lisa in the early 80's. Microsoft offered a mouse to be used in the DOS version of MS Word and MS Multiplan before Windows was released. I know, because I was using a mouse with both before Windows 1.0 (which I called "cartoon Windows" because of the whacky primary color scheme) came out.
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RE: The Dawn of the Post-PC Era. Not.
PMC-CON Updated - 1st Sep
@WilErz

You're absolutely right. I noticed that gaffe immediately. In 1981, mice were extremely rare. The Macintosh wasn't out until 1984, and while Windows 1.0 had been released, mice didn't become commonplace until Windows 3.0.
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Its just a word someone invented to tell everyone that a PC (usually seen as a device running Windows) are dead. Everything else is alive and well. Which as you said, are people who like to dream.
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@DreyerSmit is spot on, people say the PC is dead due to it's association with the perceived 'heel' Microsoft and being killed by the percieved 'good guy' Apple through its ipad. One guy even said the ipad out performs the PC in that it has apps for everything. Someone even predicted the ipad will sink the PC within 10 years. Nice dreams really.
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@DreyerSmit ; I agree, particularly in that the word was invented. IMHO, invented by people who would try to make money off it, be it technology companies who have a product to sell or pundits who have media (hard copy or electronic) to push.

I still remember (and this will date me) when PC Computing magazine had as its cover story, "CD-ROM IS DEAD." This was as the DVD (maybe even recordable DVDs--don't remember) was beginning to move into the market. I still see PLENTY of new CDs (ROM, R/RW) in use, many years later. They have hardly gone the way of the 8-track tape. At least not yet.

Post-PC? The pundits and shills can get back to me when it actually starts getting harder to find one.
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@dumptux, exactly. USB thumb drives and portable HDDs have replaced many uses of optical disks, and eventually they will go the way of the 8-track, no doubt. But CDs/DVDs are still invaluable when you need to distribute large amounts of information and the Internet is not practical, or less practical or feasible.

The same analogy could be made for traditional PCs. Some uses are better served with a tablet or smartphone, and it's great to have that option. But that doesn't mean that "PCs are dead." They're just being used better, for what they do best in each form factor.
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Exactly
Lester Young 1st Sep
@DreyerSmit

"Post-PC" is the current mantra of ABMers. Apple and Linux developers had their chance to replace Windows within the desktop UI paradigm and they blew it. After that, the next best thing is pretending that the desktop UI paradigm is dead. SJVN follows that pattern to a T.
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RE: The Dawn of the Post-PC Era. Not.
CowLauncher Updated - 1st Sep
Most mornings I have read the news, checked my email, sent some messages and told my wife I love her, all between my front door and the office...on my phone.

I suppose that you could argue a smart phone is a PC too or even a calculator. I think those that coined the phrase were talking about more than just the hardware and were also talking about how we now do things.
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RE: The Dawn of the Post-PC Era. Not.
marcusantoniouslee1@... 1st Sep
@CowLauncher - The writer said the same thing.
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RE: The Dawn of the Post-PC Era. Not.
TheFilipinoFlash 1st Sep
I don't get why they call it a Post-PC era, when they still need a Desktop to manage those "other" PCs.
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@TheFilipinoFlash

Lol so true
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@TheFilipinoFlash

Nice one, each of this little gadgets I buy has a way of connecting to my PC to load media files.
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@TheFilipinoFlash You don't. Android has worked entirely stand-alone from the get-go. You can hook most Android devices to a PC, but it's never necessary.

Apple's been different, sure... an iPhone has always been, in essence, a PC peripheral. Same with the iPad. You can't even start using one of these devices today without tethering to a PC.

Only, not so much anymore... this is one of the Android ideas Apple's put into iOS 5. No more requirement to tether to a PC, leading the way for their devices, like Android devices, to be your only computing device, should you find them sufficient.

And that may seem funny, but it's coming. The average leading edge tablet or smartphone today is faster, with more memory and more storage, than the average desktop PC in 2000. And they're changing very fast... we'll probably see quad core processors in these things before the end of the year, with storage options over 100GB, and 720p screens... as much resolution than many laptops or desktops today.

Touch isn't everything, but I can just plug a bog standard USB keyboard into my Android tablet, if I need to do lots of typing. No different than a PC in this, except that the keyboard is optional. I wouldn't draw or edit video on one today, but add a drawing tablet or maybe just a stylus and you could draw... and Apple's already shipping iMovie for the iPad, to let you edit video.
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But they're not competing....
Lester Young 1st Sep
@dave@......with 2000 era desktops. Touch-enabled PCs with a fully touch-functional UI are just around the corner, which will raise the bar for tablet functionality considerably.
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RE: The Dawn of the Post-PC Era. Not.
TheFilipinoFlash Updated - 1st Sep
@dave@... goodluck with that then, i bet you'll also want bigger Monitors(optional again?), Dual Monitors, its best to edit stuff with the editing software in one monitor then the product/previews on the other one like video editing, web development even powerpoint etc. It would be impractical imo to lets say join to Tablets via blue tooth to emulate dual monitors? Or a Tablet that can connect to two 27 Inch LEDs.

I think its still best to use the Desktop and let the other peripherals like those tablets to just get the Data to be edited. It is not the one or the other they should just be integrated.

The Desktop is the one that will benefit anyway if the, lets say some of the best characteristics of tablets be used in a Desktop/PC setting, like those low power consumptive processors which would mean be low electricity bills, recharchable etc. It could be the other way around e.g. quadcores in a tab, but I imagine it would be better in a desktop.

Well lets just see where it goes. I know some people like things to go bigger and not smaller, people may be happy with their Tablets now, but I bet they would want to go bigger in the future, so they'll still keep a powerful desktop at their homes.

@Lester Young that's one of the benefits, or what's cool in a Tablet that I see we'll be seeing the future. Desktop FTW! grin

It would be more fun to build something like that, I see many people will get into building PCs that is touch centric.
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@TheFilipinoFlash

Actually, "need" is a strong word. Most of today's devices don't "need" another computer to "manage" them. It just makes it a little easier, maybe even a lot easier, if you do so. They are PC's themselves.
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RE: The Dawn of the Post-PC Era. Not.
TheFilipinoFlash 1st Sep
@DEFleener I might not really know what other people "need" but I know I "need" a central device to manage my other devices. ^_^ E.g. my money in one Bank concept etc.

That would be a powerful Desktop, that I will build myself.

People should realize that I guess. happy
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@TheFilipinoFlash

LOL its true
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It's a rare sight these days,, common sense.

I applaud you.
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The one deliniater on whether something is a PC or not that I think you missed is, "Does it require a connection to work?" To me if the system cannot do some useful functions without a link to the a server then it is a terminal, not a PC. Having just gone through Irene with loss of internet service and power, I can say my system was still useful on the UPS, but if this had been Crome I would have had a brick.
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RE: The Dawn of the Post-PC Era. Not.
Rabid Howler Monkey 1st Sep
@oldsysprog Yup. Chromebooks, at least in their current incarnations, are not PCs. But, are they pre- or post-PC? I would say post-PC because they are now readily available to consumers (even if overpriced). As are many cloud-based apps and services.
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RE: The Dawn of the Post-PC Era. Not.
Michael Alan Goff 1st Sep
Chromebooks are PCs.

They're just limited PCs.
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RE: The Dawn of the Post-PC Era. Not.
Rabid Howler Monkey 1st Sep
@Michael Alan Goff A netbook running Windows 7 Starter edition is a limited PC.

Chromebooks are thin client devices. No internet connection? No service.
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@Rabid Howler Monkey

Are you using them personally to compute things? As in it can have one user input to perform tasks and process that input.
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@Rabid Howler Monkey

We were using terminals long before the invention of the PC.

So, the Chromebook is definetly pre-PC. happy
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@Rabid Howler Monkey

Cloud-based makes me think of Mainframes? Thin-client makes me think of dumb terminals?

I wonder why? But let's face it, it isn't evolution but mere re-volution...

~~~~~~~~~~
Every generation laughs at the old fashions, but follows religiously the new.
~ Henry David Thoreau
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@Rabid Howler Monkey ChromeBooks are a return to the pre-PC world, just in 21rst century clothing. Before PCs, you connected via terminal to a centralized computer. Consumers didn't use this much, when they did, it was probably just for message boards like Compuserve, BIX, The Well, etc.

Chromebooks are the latest in a long line of enterprise people trying to get at least some users back to that centralized model. Twenty years ago it was X Terminals, ten years ago every user was going to run Windows on the server, via Citrix terminals, etc.

It's not entirely a bad idea, for some businesses. The disadvantage, of course, is the need for the connection to the web for most things (but HTML5 does allow some local storage). The advantage for a business is that the IT guy upgrades an application once, on the server, and it's instantly on everyone's ChromeBook. Or if you lose your Chromebook (it breaks, it falls in a puddle, etc), you open a new one, log in, and in 40 seconds, you have your old environment back, nothing lost. And of course, all of that work on the server is getting regular backups... when did you say you backed your PC up last?

Not for everyone. But there is some value in this.
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@bobiroc
I can use a calculator to compute things too (by your definition), doesn't make it a computer. A chromebook is a dumb terminal that connects to another computer that actually does the computations and the chromebook just is there to display the results.
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RE: The Dawn of the Post-PC Era. Not.
dave95. Updated - 1st Sep
I don't know anyone who doesn't believe that tablets like the iPad are personal computers. The iPad is more a personal computer than any other personal computer before it.

The word "PC" has always been associated with win desktops, win laptops and the Windows operating systems.

The word post-pc is meant to describe modern Tablet computers (or smart phones and other devices) not based on the traditional x-86 PC architecture. The iPad is not associated with any of that legacy, hence the term Post-PC. It's modern computing, without the traditional PC mouse, touchpad, keyboard and OS bloat.
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@dave95.

I have to disagree there was plenty of use of the term "personal computer" in the 70's before IBM ever jumped in.
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@oldsysprog

That may have been the case, but what I meant was the term "PC" is mostly seen as being associated with Microsoft Windows compatible computers (Wintel) today. As a longtime Mac user, I would know.
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By your logic.....
Lester Young 1st Sep
@dave95......Intel Macs are PCs, and I agree with that. Maybe Apple could be considered in a "post-PC" era as most of their growth is in iOS devices, but a more accurate term would be "post-Mac."
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Huh?
Romas27 1st Sep
@dave95. Well I don't believe a tablet is a PC. It's a media device more than anything else. And basically not very useful without a Wi-Fi or wireless connection.
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