Yes, huge growth ahead
Short term, probably not
Best Argument: Short term, probably not
Huge growth in 2012
Matthew Miller: It has now been just over a year since Windows Phone 7 was launched and we still see Microsoft's smartphone market share down in the 2% range. Nokia took a major risk earlier this year when they announced that their future smartphones would run Windows Phone. Given the overwhelmingly positive reviews from nearly all those covering the mobile space and the reported success of Nokia Lumia 800 sales outside the U.S., I think Windows Phone 7 will see huge growth in 2012 and Nokia is going to help them get into the 3rd place position behind Android and iOS.
WP 7 is a refreshing, fast, and stable smartphone operating system and whenever I show it to people they are impressed. Unfortunately, Microsoft doesn't seem to be able to generate much excitement after a year in the market. Back in the day, it seemed everyone had a Nokia phone and the company is going to have to make major efforts to get back to that level of recognition and with Windows Phone Microsoft is going to help them do that.
Short-term answer is probably not
Lawrence Dignan: The question at hand is probably one of the largest ones in technology for 2012. Can Nokia and its band of Windows Phone devices become legit players in the U.S? Long term answer is perhaps. Short-term answer is probably not. When it comes to Windows Phone and Nokia, I hear a common refrain: "The devices look cool, the OS is nice, but..." That "but" typically means someone is buying an Android or iPhone.
Nokia's biggest problem is that it abandoned the U.S. years ago. It used to be a player. Then focused on the rest of the world. Maybe Nokia got cocky. Maybe Nokia just misfired. In either case, today it's going to be really tough for Nokia to get shelf space. The T-Mobile deal is a start, but little more.
The equation for Windows Phone may be different. I could see Windows Phone doing OK without Nokia. HTC, Samsung and others will roll with Microsoft. Nokia needs to break into the U.S. and differentiate.