Christopher Dawson
Look to the cloud
Too soon to tell
Lawrence Dignan
Best Argument: Too soon to tell
Closing Statements
Cause of death: existential crisis
Christopher Dawson
Innovation in the PC and printer space died of an existential crisis. Outside of some specific verticals, it no longer needed to live. This isn't to say that the market is dead, but rather already has efficient, small, inexpensive, fast computers (whether laptop or desktop) and resource-saving printers that meet the needs of most buyers. There is plenty of money to be made selling commodity hardware; HP's recent consolidation of PC and printer units is just another validation of this commodity approach. After all, how much marketing do you need to convince businesses to buy inexpensive PCs and printers?
Where things get interesting is in the cloud. HP's move, much like the shifts we've seen at Dell and IBM, is an attempt to leverage all of that commodity hardware to connect buyers to value-added services. The innovation is here, and, long-term, so is the real money.
Incentives to innovate
Lawrence Dignan
The funny thing about innovation is you never really see it coming. The PC and printer markets have become commoditized, but the innovation isn't dead. Multiple outcomes are possible because there's still a lot of money to be made in emerging markets for both PCs and printers. That reality will drive incentives to innovate. It's too early to write off PC and printer innovation.
PCs and printers still vital
Josh Gingold
I would love to tell you that this was a difficult decision, but it really wasn’t. As much as I enjoy Chris’s argument, I believe he thinks of things as they ought to be as opposed to the reality. Both PCs and printers are just as vital as they’ve ever been and will continue to evolve to meet the changing demands of the market -- which is arguably the essence of innovation.
In contrast to Chris’s idealism, Larry is reliably pragmatic; and in this particular case he did a nice job of reminding us that the “funny thing about innovation is you never really see it coming.” In other words, we don’t know what we don’t know. He’s right. It’s just way too soon to declare an end to PC and printer innovation.
Clearly most of this audience agrees that it’s too soon to tell if PC and printer innovation is gone and I would venture that it’s unlikely as well, at least in the foreseeable future. Nevertheless, to those of you who agree with Chris, I say keep dreaming. That is after all the fountainhead of big thinking which almost always leads to, you guessed it, innovation.
Talkback
Poll
Poll
I print less, but still print
- Some places I work with still do paperwork the old fashioned way.
- It's a lot cheaper to print and display a picture on my wall than to hang a tablet on my wall.
- If I need something quick to display outside (such as a garage sale sign), it's still easiest to use a printer.
- I still create designs and take notes on paper.
I will admit I print a lot [i]less[/i] than I used to, but it's still a non-zero amount. I haven't stopped printing altogether.
Printing won't die as the cost of its replacement is not practical
In Chris's world, anyone that needs to read must own a tablet, legal documents must be signed via an elaborate electronic signature system, my proof of purchase in everyone's hand but my own.
Schools must hand out, maintain, and administer costly laptops or tablets for test taking for every student and teacher, with an electronic document system for grading, and the results emailed to the parents machine (if they own one), ect.
Everything is $$$,$$$, $$$, with no thought on how to pay and maintain the systems needed to replace the one simple task of printing.
He assumes that print is a backup for electronic, when in truth, electronic is a backup for print.
Unfortunatly...
We'll still be using inkjet and laser printing
However, no matter what platform you're on, you generally can't pick up a PDF and a pen to scribble your notes, draw a happy face, underline content, or do the good-old hands-on editing that involves crossing stuff out or adding carrots and more info between the lines.
Freedom won't kill it. Market forces might.
What about everyone else?
I just had to submit a packet of about 50 pages to immigration. They have no facility to send it in digital form...it had to printed, some forms signed, and the whole thing mailed in. I actually had to scramble to find paper.
I suppose if becomes too much of a PITA, I could just start going to Kinkos or The Office Despot and pay per page (this is actually what I have to do when I visit the Philippines where everyone wants hard copy, but nobody has copiers or printers!) But when a MFP costs only $100 or so, the convenience is not something I'd like to give up for good.
PC Innovation
I don't need it to order groceries for me, lock or unlock my doors, control my thermostat, start my car, or wash my dishes.
I need the same thing from a printer. I need to print things at home now and then, so I need a printer that prints well and reliably.
Printers and PCs