Initial Windows 8 PC sales estimates 'mixed,' say analysts
Summary: Analysts are mixed, while some are skeptical on Windows 8 sales and Surface tablets in the first fortnight of sales. Is this what Ballmer meant by "modest" sales?
Windows 8 and Surface sales are "modest," according to Microsoft chief executive Steve Ballmer. Of course, only he truly knows what the figures are currently looking like, but some analysts are skeptical that even "modest" might be an overstatement.
On the whole, however, it appears that most analysts remain optimistic knowing full well that it's still early days.
Pacific Crest analyst Brendan Barnicle said he checked in with 16 North America and German PC retailers to find that 75 percent had met or reached beyond expectation in terms of sales, up from 59 percent during the same period after Windows 7 was first released.
Surface sales, however, were nothing to shout home about. In discussing with Microsoft retail store representatives, Surface sales were "in line with expectations," but that all of the stores had to "[restock] Surface inventory more than once." That said, there was a "downtick in demand for Surface."
He believes in spite of Microsoft's move to build 3-5 million Surface tablets for this quarter, Microsoft may sell only 1.5 million Surface units for the December quarter.
Barclays hardware analyst Ben Reitzes is cutting his market estimates from this year through 2016, giving a stark warning that the PC market "could decline for many years to come." The PC market at the moment is "blind" to the post-PC revolution, particularly those without a smartphone or tablet on the market.
Regarding HP, he sais: "We are cautious on HP's PC segment given secular pressures, share losses, market confusion over ultrabooks and Windows 8, and a slowdown in markets like China." While the global economy is the main reason, "market confusion" over Windows 8 must hurt Microsoft to the very core.
And then when he does note Dell, Windows 8 will not save the company's ailing business -- which according to IDC figures, the firm lost 14 percent in market share quarter-on-quarter between Q2 and Q3 2012. He says while federal government spending on PCs is up, it's not enough to counter-balance the loss in revenue from the post-PC market.
We see tablets encroaching on PC sales in education and financial services verticals in particular of late [...] With respect to Win 8 tablets, we do not believe that Dell will see meaningful traction.
Cowen analysts Gregg Moskowitz surveyed more than 1,200 consumers between pre-order and Surface delivery times, and found that 64 percent of existing PC owners had not heard about Windows 8 by the time it was launching. Out of that, 32 percent saw Windows 8 favorably, while 18 percent less so.
Roughly two-thirds of the respondents do not plan on buying a PC over the next 18 months. Also, our study indicates Apple [Mac] and MacBook computers could take as much as 42 percent of the combined consumer PC/Mac market. This is concerning for [Microsoft], as Windows 8 likely won’t be enough to slow Apple's PC momentum.
He also noted that Ultrabooks "[do not] appear likely to have a material market impact" at the moment, with less than 20 percent of consumers willing to spend more than $600 in the next year-and-a-half on a new PC with an Ultrabook.
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Talkback
Stating the obvious
http://www.zdnet.com/windows-8-is-the-new-xp-7000006095/
And Windows 8 is no big deal, Windows 9 will soon be in the product development pipeline, armed with extensive user feedback from Windows 8:
http://www.geekwire.com/2012/windows-8-launch-big-youve-told/
Whoa!...
Playing the MS "next version is really good" card early
Like with Vista, then Win7 PC manufacturers were counting in the release for an uptick in sales in a depressing market. Win8 appears to ne heading the Vista route; some of the hardware manufacturers will struggle to survive.
If the figures of 42% of potential buyers are looking a Macs I'd say game over; most marginally if at all profitable currently.
Windows 8
Retailers?
Retail shopping, it's just like the Internet but with none of the convenience...
Windows 8
Why was the head of the Windows
Rumour had it
Initial Windows 8 PC sales estimates 'mixed,' say analysts
"nobodys"?
is Like Willy Farrell talking honesty
theo_durcan ...Loverock Davidson is correct about Surface
I enjoy using W-8 on my twin 25 inch monitors, I like Metro with its tiles, it fun to use ....... but If I'm doing anything important I still prefer any one of my Linux versions over it.........
This is bad reporting
No CIO is going to understate sales - "modest" is a MAX ceiling
Likely they're somewhere in between - well below projections, but not so bad that the word "Kin" is on everyone's lips.
Good grief
-Max
Because a lot of these posters are...
They read information on stuff they have no interest in, to bad mouth it (a company, a product) when something is negative, and to downplay it when something is positive. What is the point? Your product or company doesn't get any better or worse based on what you say.
Take me for instance, I rarely read Apple news, as Apple products don't fit my lifestyle. If I do read something, I never leave a comment. Why would I, it would probably be negative, so there is no need to rain on some one else's parade. I'm secure enough about myself and my likes and dislikes not to have to get them confirmed by some internet reader.
Give it a rest people, enjoy what you like, and let other people enjoy what they like.
windows 8
Can't buy when you can't find answers
My desktop had died, owing to a Windows REGISTRY crash. My computer guys couldn't restore it, despite my backups. So they did a clean install, and began a nightmare for me which lasted through July. During May-July, 800,00 files of god-knows-what software, I had to reinstall; and of course couldn't even know what to reinstall, since the programs were all arcane. Finally, after registry searches and all kinds of nonsense, I was able to get 90% of what I had, back on the machine. Vowing never to go through this again, I went on another nightmare trip trying to find the right BACKUP software, going through all the major players, which turned out to be incompetent, settling finally on Macrium. It worked.
So now, I realized the central flaw of Windows, and wanted to get off it, which meant learning Linux. But of course, I'd still have to use dual-boot. So went hunting for computers to BUY, at the major players like Asus, Dell, Acer, even Walmart. Because I'd not want to make a dual-boot machine, on my existing machines. I needed their stability, and they were mostly older, pre-XP.
So you'd think that a PC manufacturer would make it easy on their website, to compare and buy a machine.. and you'd be WRONG. Acer's website had NO mechanism for comparing their bizillion modles in a table so I could see the different specs, side by side. How am I to know the difference between Aspire and Timeline? Those names don't tell me anything. So after four times TRYING to buy, I quit. One of those times, I even chatted with the rep online, only to find out that I can't get the max RAM a machiine can hold, at the point of sale. The configurations offered were woefully inadequate for purchase, and you might know it's really hard to open up a small netbook or laptop yourself, and add RAMM. So no sale with Acer.
Walmart's configurations of Acer were even worse. Getting answers from them was difficult. So no sale at Walmart, either. By this time I knew what I wanted to buy, an Acer 8573-9627. No sooner did I fainally (after DAYS searching) figure out what I could do tiwh it, than Acer removed that model from all its webpages. Bad sign.
So, the meanwhile I also went to Dell, trying several times to buy a 6530 laptop. Then, suddenly on returning after finding ELSEWHERE what the machine even looked like (Dell's pictures show the machine BACKWARDS, so I couldn't even see the keyboard), -- suddenly, I can't find THAT model, either. So I guessed at what was the nearest one -- bizillion models again, no good way to get a tabular comparison of specs -- I finally guessed at one style of laptop, and during checkout configuration of the options, guess what? The automated website wouldn't ALLOW me to buy 8 GB of RAM on a 32-bit OS. As if the machine couldn't be configured for dual-boot (32-bit and another OS aat 64-bit), which I knew it could. So again, a cat with a rep, me compalaining about this, and the rep said no can sell.
Okay, so Dell lost a new PC sale, Walmart lost a new PC sale, and Acer lost a new PC sale. But I still needed new PCs, now that I had Macrium to handle the INSANE WINDOWS REGISTRY VULNERABILITY. What to do?
So, I just bought 2 desktops at Dell Auction, and one Acer Aspire netbook, all used. Why? BECAUSE IT WAS SIMPLER to buy them, and I could get what I wanted. Sure, I need to do some tweaking, but given the extreme cost savings, that tweaking money will go to my computer guys. Instead of, to the manufacturers of the machines.
Bet you money a number of people like me are doing that; buying again, systems we know, so to avoid the hassle of a bizillion 'new' models which are poorly defined and impossible to compare.
Second bet: the tablet craze represents a REBELLION against the insanity of Windows architecture, and against the complexity of buying a PC. SIMPLER to buy a tablet and do less with it, than learn a convoluted OS with an ever-changing interface which makes you relearn even basic tasks de novo, a system which will crash without telling you why, and which you can't thus understand and depend on.
People underutilize computers, because the dang things are not simple to buy, not simple to maintain, not simple to use. They COULD be simpler, but the software makers just don't care about KEEPING THE INTERFACE THE SAME. And when something comes along which gets rid of the hassle of dealing with the jargony, arcane and ever-changing 'features', they go to what's basic.
So now, surfing, videos, music, email are basically all anyone wants from a PC. Anything more, requires actually learning the OS, mastering compatibility issues. WE ARE TIRED OF THE GLITCHES. So we won't buy.
That leaves the business sector. And it doesn't buy what radically changes in-house vertical applications, procedures; for the training cost alone is too time-consuming. So unless and until hardware and software companies realize that CHANGING THE INTERFACE and MAKING SALES DIFFICULT is slowing PC sales, sales willl keep on sliding.
HINT: make it easier to get new parts for older computers. You can make good margin on that. Modularity is key. HINT: when you want to sell newer versions of your software, KEEP THE INTERFACE THE SAME, and craft new your features as an add-on-module, so the existing structure is ADDED TO, rathr than redesigned. (That's what made MS Word popular.) HINT: FIX THE BUGS and charge for those fixes, again without changing the interface, except to ADD to it.
Then and only then, will you make it easier for busineses and finally consumers, to buy what you sell.
frustrating life
Waiting