That translates into a compound annual growth rate of 28 percent through 2009, the market researcher said. But smart phones will not replace cell phones, media players, cameras or gaming devices.
Jupiter said the growth would be driven by consumer desire for a single integrated device, even if it means compromising on functionality. Nearly 62 percent of consumers prefer to carry a single device offering features other than voice applications, even while compromising on advanced functions, size or battery life. However, 74 percent of consumers said telephony remains the most important feature on a mobile device.
"Although our research indicates that consumers will carry up to three devices, they still prefer to carry a single integrated device to provide mobile functions," Michael Gartenberg, research director at Jupiter Research, said in a statement. "The key is understanding what features are important to consumers in a given context and delivering them while being careful not compromise on the key mobile feature: telephony."
Mobile-phone shipments in the fourth quarter of 2004 reached more than 193 million. Leading phone makers have introduced phones with additional features, such as taking photos and connecting to virtual private networks.