Windows: It's over
Summary: You can think Windows 8 will evolve into something better, but the numbers show that Windows is coming to a dead end.
Most people in our recent debate over the future of Windows 8 thought that the operating system could be saved. I'm sure many people in 1491 thought that the Earth was flat, too.
The very day the debate came to an end, this headline appeared: IDC: Global PC shipments plunge in worst drop in a generation. Sure, a lot of that was due to the growth of tablets and smartphones and the rise of the cloud, but Windows 8 gets to take a lot of the blame too. After all, the debate wasn't whether or not Windows 8 was any good. It's not. The debate was over whether it could be saved.
Indeed even Microsoft defenders are no longer talking about Windows 8 in terms of a stand-alone project but instead they're spinning it as Windows 8 being "more like a living organism, made partly from familiar bits that have evolved over the last two decades, with several new strands of DNA tossed in. It’s due to be updated for more often, and it’s part of a much larger hardware-apps-services ecosystem that is also changing quickly."
Please. Changing too fast for the user-base was what turned many former Windows fans into Windows 8 haters. Some people think I've put too much emphasis on Windows 8's dismal Metro interface for why Windows 8 has failed. I don't think so. This isn't a matter of judging a book by its cover; the user interface (UI) is everything for computer users. If the UI alienates users, you lose them. It's as simple as that.
My comrade pointed out that I declared Vista dead six years ago, but that the Aero interface, which I like, started there. True, but that wasn't the point. I was right. Vista did die. Microsoft had to bring back XP to stop users from fleeing to Linux on netbooks.
Now, Microsoft could revive Windows 7 sales, or make Aero Windows 8.x's interface, but from everything we can see about Windows 8.1, aka Blue, that's not what they're doing. Instead, Microsoft seems to be doubling down on Metro.
Idiots.
You think the least they could do is give users a choice between a real Aero interface and Metro, but no, they won't do that. I don't know what it is, but lately, UI "experts" seem to want to create interfaces that only appeal to their builders and not to any of their users. It's not just Microsoft with Aero. In Linux, GNOME made similar blunders with its 3.x line and many former Ubuntu Linux users think Canonical went on the wrong track with Unity.
Yes, we are entering a post-PC world. Tablets and smartphones are becoming more important... to sales. PCs are no more going to go away than mainframes did. We're still going to be using them in offices and homes for the foreseeable future. They let us easily do things that we need to do every day that we can't easily do with a tablet or a phone.
Perhaps most of our computing will move to the cloud, but you know what device we'll still be using for most of our interactions? It will be a PC, simply because it's easier to enter data with a real keyboard than any other interface.
True, it would be great if you could use one operating system for your PC, tablet, and smartphone. Besides Microsoft with Windows 8.x, Canonical with Ubuntu, Mozilla with Firefox OS, and Google with Android/Chrome are all making similar bets.
But I don't think that's essential. I think Microsoft could continue to dominate the important, but no longer growing, desktop market for years, even decades to come. However, I don't think they will.
It looks like Microsoft is betting all its chips on the silly notion that Metro will be the one true interface for its entire PC and device line. There's only one little problem with this idea. Sorry, but I have to say it again, look at the numbers: Metro-interface operating systems have already failed.
Fewer people than with any previous edition of Windows want Windows 8. Vista actually looks successful when you compare it to Windows 8! As for tablets and smartphones, I think my ComputerWorld colleague Preston Gralla summed it up nicely in his analysis of ABI Research's report on 2013's tablet market: "Windows tablets don't even rate a blip in the $64 billion tablet market."
So, what do the numbers show? Not what do you want them to show, and not what would your faith in Microsoft would have you believe, but what do they actually add up to? The sum is that Microsoft is failing to hold on to the desktop market and that it has no impact whatsoever on smartphones and tablets.
Windows 8 may not just be a failure in and of itself. Unless Microsoft changes course, this may be the end of the Windows domination period in end-using computing. Indeed, some major financial firms, such as Goldman Sachs and Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers (KPCB), already believe that Windows has crested and that it's all downhill from here.
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Talkback
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He meant to say "Linux: It's over".
But it's not meant to be truthful, just geared towards his faithful followers that will always post that he is "100% dead on".
Like the UFO believers - it doesn't matter if the author believes what he writes, as long as the paying believers do. ;)
Actually, by his logic, both should be done - on the desktop
By Steven's logic, Linux on the desktop is also done. Yes, Linux has the Super Computer market, all 500 or so computers world wide, yes, Linux is a player in the server market as is Windows, but that's not what we are talking about here.
Even with the downturn in PC sales, predicting the demise of Windows is more than a bit premature. Tablets still can't replace the proverbial desktop yet.
I do agree, on the product maturity curve, Windows is a VERY MATURE product, but even mature products can last for generations before disappearing from the markets. Windows has a decade or two left at present.
As usual, Steven's vain attempt at journalism fails, yet again.
Diminishing returns
Not to say that Microsoft would abandon Windows anywhere in the near future but they do tend to vear away from a product once the revenue stream begins to wane - no matter how good it is.
re: MS Money
re: MS Money
MS Money Sunset FREE version - search the Internet and yee shall find.
The only thing you can't do are automatic data transfers from your bank from within MS Money; you have to go to your bank website and do their download to MS Money while it is open - all 'new' transactions will transfer for most banks (just not BoA).
The reason my credit union still offers MS Money downloads is because the app they require from Microsoft to make it possible is free to them (and has always been free); however, they don't offer Quicken downloads because Intuit charges financial institutions to use their application, and it would not be cost effective for them.
If you are still interested in using MS Money Sunset version (the same as last version) then do a search on the Internet. You will be able to install it onto what ever Windows version you are using. I'm currently using Windows 8 Pro.
Mint.com
try quick books
better accounting
much better than oldtimer accounts/cash software
Actually, I will admit:
You miss Works?
Works deserved its death. It tried to be an Office-Lite but didn't deliver. When there are free programs almost as powerful as Office, why should Microsoft spend the money developing an inferior version of their flagship suite?
Miss Works??? OMFG!!!
Very stupid analogy.
Sunsetted Products
I don't miss Visual Foxpro
I doubt it.
Holding on by People's Ignorance
Face it, the Surface RT and Pro, the Nokia Phones, are really awful, and Windows 8 is a disaster. Microsoft needed these products to cut into the tablet and phone market but they have failed which means they don't have a place in the future.
Microsoft is also competing against companies offering free software and services, using open source models. Example Google and greater Linux offerings. Microsoft's high licensing fees and restrictive policies are now seen as ridiculous and out of date.
i think you're alone on that first point
HTC's WP7.5 based radar is a very, very nice device. much much more fluid and responsive than my equivalently priced android device.
On the other hand, I do think MS is going to need to adjust licensing... but as far as it once again being the time for linux and open source to take over, heard it a million times before... still waiting to see it.
i second that