Richard drops a bombshell

Alright, it's 2:00 in the morning here in the 206 and I was JUST getting ready to go to bed. Unfortunately for my beauty sleep (I need lots), I checked Techmeme and saw this headline: "The State of Web Develpoment - Ajax set to surpass Flash in '07" courtesy of Richard MacManus. Seriously, I was finished with Ajax versus Flash, I promise. But the fates intervened and I'm looking at the survey results right now. There is a TON of interesting data here.

First off, as Richard notes, SitePoint expects Flash usage to decline from 39.85% (Ajax is currently at 30.03%) to 23.36% (with Ajax making that up in the form of a jump to 45.77%). On the surface, this looks like a big win for Ajax and a big loss for Flash. I take a different approach. Only 70% of respondants are building more interactive web presences? And that's not expected to change?! What?! That's bad for both Flash AND Ajax.

But there are some interesting quotes in the report which I think portend good things for Rich Internet Applications. Here are a couple of responses that people gave to the survey with regards to "what the next big thing on the web" will be:

Real-time visual 3D view and navigation of a site – your mouse pointer moves not only two dimensionally (X,Y), but also goes further inside the site (Z).

Not entirely sure – the sky seems to be the limit – but the wider range of screen sizes from which to view the Internet (from large 20-25” monitors to small cell phone, watch and PDA screens), as well as the ever increasing awareness for the need to include people with various disabilities in the demographics for the websites we create, leads me to believe that the next big thing on the Web will include being able to design sites to be accessible from any number of devices in a large variety of sizes.

Voice interactivity/navigation – users say what they want to do or where they want to go within a site OR a digital “site assistant” that speaks what the visitor would normally read – less text and a more replicated human interface

I believe that now that people are getting faster Internet connections, things like video that are beginning to take off now will be a big part of e-commerce sites and service sites. It is a great way to try and earn trust with the customer as you can show your face –chat to them and let them know who you are.

Integration of Internet technologies into everyday life that does not involve a desktop or even a mobile/cell/PDA – how about stock control of your fridge via RFID and live links to online grocery stores? Or recipe ideas straight to your cooker based on what you cook? Essentially, bridging the gap between all the devices we currently use independent of the Web where there’s real value to be delivered to the enduser. This is the future.

Obviously there is a huge need for what Rich Internet Applications can provide. The level of interactivity, the extension of the PC to devices and the living room, and the audio/video collaboration are all things that provide value to users. As those needs mature, and become more well defined, we will continue to see Rich Internet Applications thrive. We're in the middle of an exciting time. People are getting very creative about their content - how they want it, where they want it, and what they want to do with it. The technologies are finally here to turn some of those thoughts into tangible solutions. It won't happen overnight, but we'll start to see examples. As we do, more people are going to jump on the RIA bandwagon.

And this didn't even turn into an anti-Ajax post!