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Looking ahead to Windows 8: five big questions for Microsoft

By | January 30, 2012, 5:13pm PST

Summary: The beta release of Windows 8 is just a few weeks away. It should be nearly feature-complete, and expectations will be high. So what’s keeping managers in Redmond awake at night? Here are my top five questions.

Microsoft released the Windows 8 Developer Preview in mid-September of last year. Within three months, the full OS—a very large file—had been downloaded more than  3 million times.

That’s an awful lot of interest in an unfinished operating system. As a point of reference, that number is larger than the total number of downloads for the feature-complete Windows 7 beta in January 2009.

Within the next few weeks (“late February” is the official target), Microsoft will unveil the next Windows 8 milestone. Technically, it’s a beta, but it will probably be called a Consumer Preview edition.

In contrast to the incomplete Developer Preview, it has been designed for use by a broad audience, and it will undoubtedly be downloaded far more than 3 million times. More than 10 million? I wouldn’t be surprised, given the level of interest I’ve seen so far.

The Windows 8 Developer Preview isn’t really suitable for full-time use: Although you could try, it’s missing some big pieces and has few real apps. The coming beta release should be nearly feature-complete, with full implementations of features that have only been demoed so far.

Expectations will be high for this release. So what’s keeping managers in Redmond awake at night? Here are my top five questions.

Will customers adjust to the “reimagined” Windows 8 UI?

Microsoft has received plenty of feedback about the biggest change in Windows 8, the new Metro style Start screen and search box. Those features and changes that are a direct result of feedback, have been outlined thoroughly on the Building Windows 8 blog. The four separate blog posts on the topic have garnered 2,108 comments so far.

The discussion over file management was equally spirited, with some 2,200 comments to date. I love this picture showing how the results were tallied, although an Excel product manager is probably in tears over the thought of hand tallies.

In the demos I saw at CES, using relatively recent builds, the behavior of the Start and search screens had been changed in subtle but significant ways. It’s probably not enough to silence the grumbling and occasional outright yelling over the changes.

I suspect there’s a hard core of Windows fundamentalists who will never accept Metro style, or will resist it for some period of time. They’ll just have to deal with it, because I’m told the final release will not include a “classic” option with the Windows 7-style Start menu and search behavior.

When will ARM devices arrive? How much will they cost? What will they do?

OK, that’s three questions, but we’ll count it as one.

Last year at the D9 conference Steven Sinofsky and Julie Larson-Green showed off Windows 8 for the first time. One thing Sinofsky said during that interview has stuck with me. Interviewer Walt Mossberg began asking a question: “And every program that runs in desktop Windows will run on …”

And Sinofsky interrupted him to say: “It’s Windows.”

That’s a theme I’ve heard repeatedly from others on the Windows team. The ARM edition is being developed on the same track as the x86/x64 versions. It will ship at the same time, and it will look and act just like its cousins on other chipsets.

What’s different is that the code is hardware-dependent, and there isn’t any Windows 8-ready ARM hardware available here in the outside world yet. That adds to the mystery around these exotic devices, and more questions that won’t be answered until that hardware finally shows up in the wild.

Apps, digital media, and revenue –>

Topics

Ed Bott is an award-winning technology writer with more than two decades' experience writing for mainstream media outlets and online publications.

Disclosure

Ed Bott

Ed Bott is a freelance technical journalist and book author. All work that Ed does is on a contractual basis.

Since 1994, Ed has written more than 25 books about Microsoft Windows and Office. Along with various co-authors, Ed is completely responsible for the content of the books he writes. As a key part of his contractual relationship with publishers, he gives them permission to print and distribute the content he writes and to pay him a royalty based on the actual sales of those books. Ed's books written prior to fall 2011 have been distributed by Que Publishing (a division of Pearson Education) and by Microsoft Press. As of November 2011, Ed is a partner in the independent publishing company Fair Trade Digital Exchange, which exclusively publishes his books.

On occasion, Ed accepts consulting assignments. In recent years, he has worked as an expert witness in cases where his experience and knowledge of Microsoft and Microsoft Windows have been useful. In each such case, his compensation is on an hourly basis, and he is hired as a witness, not an advocate.

Ed does not own stock or have any other financial interest in Microsoft or any other software company. He owns 500 shares of stock in EMC Corporation, which was purchased before the company's acquisition of VMware. In addition, he owns 350 shares of stock in Intel Corporation, purchased more than two years ago. All stocks are held in retirement accounts for long-term growth.

Ed does not accept gifts from companies he covers. All hardware products he writes about are purchased with his own funds or are review units covered under formal loan agreements and are returned after the review is complete.

Biography

Ed Bott

Ed Bott is an award-winning technology writer with more than two decades' experience writing for mainstream media outlets and online publications. He's served as editor of the U.S. edition of PC Computing and managing editor of PC World; both publications had monthly paid circulation in excess of 1 million during his tenure. He is the author of more than 25 books on Microsoft Windows and Office, including the recently released Windows 7 Inside Out.

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RE: Looking ahead to Windows 8: five big questions for Microsoft
Paul Coddington 28th Feb
@Emi Cyberschreiber

Folders work better when you have lots of shortcuts because you can organise them into task related groups. With Windows 7, I have about 6-7 choices at each level to see at a glance. Each level suggests to me where to go next, and limits me to (and reminds me of) tools associated with the task at hand.

With Windows 8 I will have 250+ tiles to scroll sideways through, none of which are readable at a glance because of their size, spacing and typography!

Also, the Windows 8 search function will not help me find something if I can't remember its name and exactly how it is spelled! With the sheer number of minor tools in numerous suites, such as Visual Studio or Poser, various photo-editing tools, etc, this is a significant usability problem.
I'd be happy if Window Media Player would finally provide native support for common media files like flac. I'm not holding my breath but it would be nice.
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FLAC common?
Joe_Raby 30th Jan
@dcagle9891@...

Keep dreaming.
@Joe_Raby
It's so common that I have never heard of it.
@dcagle9891@...

And can they put a simple Aspect Ratio option. Some videos are in wrong aspect ratio and I like being able to switch it in a second.
@lepoete73 - try modifying the zoom setting in media center - it allows you to handle movies with different aspect ratios?
@lepoete73
How about 100% backward compatibility with all programs back to Win98/XP or incorporate a painless VMware capability to accommodate 8/16bit programs/loaders? MS copied Norton/Stacker in DOS6.120 why not VMware!

I like most of Win7's new stuff except for the 32bit loader/pgm limitation imposed and how they screwed up HomeVersion network setup and hiding properties. Hence, I will operated XP until MS gets off their ego trip (unlikely though, so Linux here I come using WINE).

Understand I'm a Sr EE Eng, I use my PC's for work not just browsing/entertainment/music, I need my old tools - they work, just not in WinVista/7 and likely not Win8. MS is screwing the Scientific/Eng community for browser money.
@lepoete73 use media center has all the zoom options you need not sure why media player hasnt got these options but thats the main reason i used media center now
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Backward Compatibiity
joe@... 31st Jan
@lepoete73
It would be nice if they would do that. If you buy a car you can still use the same method of driving it, the same method of brakes, gas, clutch, whatever.
Windows 7 messed that all up. I use Windows 7 just for my HAM Radio stuff and doing backups every night of our network. It took a while to get the 64 bit drivers to work for my ham stuff, but it now works. I finally got it to see the best OS Microsoft ever came out with, Windows 98SE. It seems that they have also taken the 98 updates off of their website. Like somebody said here earlier, I am not going to hold my breath. If Microsoft would get their act together, Linux would probably not be so popular. My 2 cents worth since they first started with DOS. Whatever happened to CPM?
Progress is a wonderful thing if implemented properly. The first computer I built had no keyboard or monitor. We have come a long way.
Something to think about though, aren't all Americans Greedy? Why not Bill and company? So sad...
@lepoete73

Media player offers this functionality, it's just not obvious. In WMP press Alt + T, Select "Options". In the "Options" dialog click the "Devices" tab. In the Devices tab select "Display" in the devices list and click the Properties button. Here's where you can set a custom aspect ratio.
@lepoete73

Media player offers this functionality, it's just not obvious. In WMP press Alt + T, Select "Options". In the "Options" dialog click the "Devices" tab. In the Devices tab select "Display" in the devices list and click the Properties button. Here's where you can set a custom aspect ratio.
@lepoete73

Media player offers this functionality, it's just not obvious. In WMP press Alt + T, Select "Options". In the "Options" dialog click the "Devices" tab. In the Devices tab select "Display" in the devices list and click the Properties button. Here's where you can set a custom aspect ratio.
@lepoete73

Media player offers this functionality, it's just not obvious. In WMP press Alt + T, Select "Options". In the "Options" dialog click the "Devices" tab. In the Devices tab select "Display" in the devices list and click the Properties button. Here's where you can set a custom aspect ratio.
@dcagle9891@...

As long as third party codecs are able to be used and are freely available, what difference does it make?
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Characterizing FLAC as
rbethell Updated - 31st Jan
@dcagle9891@... Characterizing FLAC as "common" may be excessively exuberant. FLAC may be well known to musicians who collab and audiophiles, but to most users, FLAC is something blown off by grenades.
@rbethell ... naw, that's shrapnel. FLAK is shrapnel from anti-aircraft air burst shells. But it's similar. And it's more common than FLAC; you're right about that. I'd rather see some Windows acknowledgement of open data formats, native pdf's, and ogg audio files--they could look at the rest of the world, you know.
I'd rather see some Windows acknowledgement of open data formats, native pdf's, and ogg audio files--they could look at the rest of the world, you know.

If they can't buy it, control it, monopolize it or make money off of it, then that will never happen
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@dcagle9891@... If you want something that "just works" get a Mac. Of course, if it doesn't work on a Mac, chances are you'll never ever be able to make it work, but you do get Codex and bouncy icons. I'm not shorting the Mac for that either. Its a gummy-fun machine and most of us love gummy-fun happy-song solutions.
@A Gray OSX doesn't have native playback support for FLAC either.
"I suspect there???s a hard core of Windows fundamentalists who will never accept Metro style, or will resist it for some period of time. They???ll just have to deal with it, because I???m told the final release will not include a ???classic??? option with the Windows 7-style Start menu and search behaviour."

Just like the thousands of people who reverted to the Windows 9x Start Menu right through to Windows Vista.

You can currently get it back using a registry alteration. It'll be interesting to see if this is removed.
@dcagle9891@... We know Media Center is included but is Media Player? Surely it's about time Microsoft decided their desktop media player is either Windows Media Player or Zune Player?

WMP is needed (currently) for Windows Media Center but Zune is needed for Windows Phone. That's just crazy. Two entirely separate media libraries to manage if you use Media Center and also have a Windows Phone. I suspect this will continue in Windows 8. Zune is very much tied to Windows Phone (which is a relatively new product) and I cannot see Microsoft re-writing Media Center to talk to Zune.
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WMP and Zune - my pet peeve
johngalt_0705 31st Jan
@bradavon Yes! Glad to see someone else comment on this. The fact that on Windows you have two different music player programs is just ridiculous. With Apple, you just have iTunes. And have you ever tried to use DLNA, the Microsoft way of getting music from your computer to your home theater receiver and other devices? It's a joke. I tried to use it and ended up buying Apple TV 2, which works great, and then I got some AirPlay speakers for the bathroom. I mean, you can argue that Apple is a music player company, so they had better get that right, but Microsoft has so utterly failed to execute in the music space. Maybe XBox Live will be better? I'm not holding my breath.

Eric
@bradavon

I'd be serious horked if you can't use VLC and SMPlayer (a Win32 port of MPlayer) in Windows 8. They are indispensable for my video viewing experience. SMPlayer can handle certain .mkv files that hangs VLC perfectly, and SMPlayer and VLC are way better at playing DVDs than WMP.
@bradavon

From what I heard, Windows Media Center is being dropped totally from the OS. Has that changed in the three months since that was posted on Cnet?
@johngalt_0705

So what good is QuickTime on a Mac, given your assessment of iTunes, again?
@johngalt_0705

"With Apple, you just have iTunes."

Are you suggesting all Apple users remove and disregard QuickTime, then?
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@johngalt_0705

"With Apple, you just have iTunes"

Are you suggesting that Apple users simply remove Quicktime, then?
@johngalt
Really? My pc streams music, photos, movies to my Sony Bravia effortlessly using WMP / dlna. It took 5 mins to set up.
@dcagle9891@...

Is Flac actually common?
@dcagle9891@... Can VLC play it? Then I don't worry about what any other player can do.
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Can VLC play FLAC?
rahbm 2nd Feb
@RoverDaddy
Yes, so no need to bother with anything else!
@dcagle9891@...

Who needs Windows Media Player anyway.
@dcagle9891@...
VLC plays almost all formats, including FLAC, and does not suffer the maddening limitations of the MS player which only supports codecs which Microsoft likes and approves. See http://www.videolan.org/vlc/features.html
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How many SKUs this time (chuckles)
Richard Flude 30th Jan
4 or 5 products for each architecture; x86, x86_64, ARM (32, 64 with ARM8?).

As they've done previously, will MS introduce higher end versions in an attempt to support declining revenue? Price increases for lower end versions unlikely to be well received.

Then there's upgrade pricing.

Looking forward to having a product available. Should provide an opportunity for plenty of comments. Metro and the ribbon interface a scream;-)
@Richard Flude
They may as well have been one SKU for all the extra overhead for MS and everyone down the sales line.
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Who cares?
ye 31st Jan
@Richard Flude: How many SKUs this time (chuckles)

The ABMers keep creating a mountain out of a mole hill. We've had multiple SKU's for how long now? Four years? Doesn't seem to be a big problem.
@ye

Also, considering you won't be able to download or buy a prepackaged version of the ARM architectures, distinguishing them from each other won't make one bit of difference to the end customer.
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nt
Resplendent 30th Jan
Here's hoping they get it down to 1 Consumer and 1 Business SKU. What, don't laugh! sad
@Resplendent I think there is an argument for even less than that! With so many companies implementing BYOD, separate "home" and "work" editions make far less sense than they used to.
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Agree
Patanjali 31st Jan
@jeremychappell
@Resplendent
Most enterprises are probably buying the enterprise editions at a lot less than what the Home editions sell to individual consumers for. Selling one version at a low price would probably cost less to market and less inventory costs for MS and sales channels to maintain.

MS could probably combine Win8 and Office 2012 as the sole SKU and everybody would be happy because it would make the sales pitch an easy and clear sell for all.
@Patanjali

Until Anti-trust sets in. Yeah - bundling Office and Windows like that would be a very big anti-trust issue for Microsoft. They're taking enoug heat as it is.
@Patanjali At least you could use it right out of the box. You know, like any Linux distro. Three hundred dollars - plus for an operating system that just connects to the internet so you can download Open or Libre Office suites for free. Why not a trial MS Office like when I got my new netbook?
@Resplendent

Not me! I LIKE having choices.
@NoAxToGrind

What choices? The difference between "bad" and "worse"?
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Can't wait...
frnw 30th Jan
I can't wait for an OS that runs on desktops, smartphones, tabs, lptps...(I think Win8 will be widely accepted).
What exactly will the hardware specs. be?
@frnw
By the lack of attention in the pseudo-tech blogs, like ZDNet, I began thinking that Win8 couldn't possibly compete with the current tablets because there was no mention of Win 8 being able to keep it's data up to date while 'off', like phone and tablet OSs.

Well, the Build conference video for Connected Standby showed that MS was all over the issues required for that functionality, and has quite aggressive tagets, like 5% battery capacity loss per 16 hours of 'off', which makes it close to specs of some phones.

To do that they have dramatically reduced the number of background services, required Metro apps to be quite frugal with what they do to keep their data up to date when 'off', and require that hardware manage much of the communication and notifications to offload the CPU, so that it is only woken up when required.

Win8 does not appear to be just an also ran, but a serious endevour to marry the live nature of portable devices with decent power (CPU) and lowest possible power consumption.
@Patanjali

I think a significantly more interesting issue is what kind of RAM and CPU it will take to be particularly usable. If it ends up needing the kind of hardware that Win7 does then it's going to get killed by the ARM- and phone-OS based stuff. That has, I think, been the problem with Windows on tablets previously. An iPad? $500 and it works great. A Win7 tablet? $800 to start, but only if you want to get old waiting for it to do stuff. You really want the $1100 model, with 4G RAM and a relatively speedy CPU. Is it any wonder that iPads are selling like crazy and Windows tablets are not?

Right now Windows has, roughly speaking, four times the minimum CPU requirements and eight times the RAM requirements of iOS. It's closer with Android -- Android only needs a quarter the RAM. That is a huge difference in hardware, and that translates to higher cost for the Windows machines, even before you start considering the higher chip counts required for Intel-based stuff (expected to finally disappear this year).

I know the thought is that the ARM version of Windows will be able to compete, but I think that's a pipe dream for two reasons. First, if it's full Windows its going to have similar hardware requirements to x86; ARM doesn't magically make stuff smaller and faster. They'll be able to dump some stuff that doesn't make sense in a tablet or on something other than x86, but I think it's crazy to presume that this could possibly make an effect greater than perhaps 50%. Maybe, maybe they can get it down to being competitive with Android tablets. They're never going to get it down to iOS levels. But even if I'm totally wrong, the second reason is still paramount: If you're going to have to dump all your applications and buy them again anyway, there's nothing particular to Win8/ARM that makes that more interesting than either iOS or Android -- and if the units are more expensive to boot, there's just no way very many people will do that.

I think Win8 will have to live or die based on the x86 machines. Moreover, I think the only reason to get a Win8 tablet versus iOS or Android is the classic desktop since that's where all the apps are going to be for quite some time going forward ... and if they've got to support classic desktop the RAM and CPU requirements are not going to get much better than Win7, so costs will remain relatively high compared to ARM.

And that leaves quite a market position problem for Microsoft. Historically Wintel has had a rather favorable price structure relative to other stuff, largely due to volume, and so many more apps that nothing could touch it. Why spend more to get less?

Neither is true anymore. ARM stuff is a lot cheaper than Windows, perhaps in part because it can draw on the huge cellphone market in addition to tablets and set-top boxes and (soon) laptops and desktops. iOS has hundreds of thousands of apps; enough that there are probably several somethings out there to do whatever you are interested in. Android is well behind that, particularly in larger form factors, but likely not for very long. Both get almost another whole year of market building before Win8 even makes its appearance.

We'll have to see, but here's my bet:

- Win8 sells a lot of copies on traditional PC form factors, based largely on the fact that Microsoft can force it to be sold to consumers by fiat. Business use will be near zero, they're still migrating to Win7.

- Windows x86 has some sales on tablets, mostly into the same verticals as they sell into now, but goes nowhere on ARM (I'm not even convinced Win8/ARM ships in 2012; I think 2Q2013 is far more likely, given that we've not so much as heard about hardware or a beta yet).

- The tablet market grows to 130-150M units in 2012, 100-120M of which are iPad, with Android mopping up pretty much all of the rest.

- The laptop market shrinks by 15-20%, and the desktop market by 5-10%. The first quarter the losses will be explained away by the flooding in Thailand, the second quarter will be some other pretty obviously lame excuse, and by the third no one will think it's anything but encroachment by the new competition.
Sorry, damned comments section playing up, double post...
@Emi Cyberschreiber

Folders work better when you have lots of shortcuts because you can organise them into task related groups. With Windows 7, I have about 6-7 choices at each level to see at a glance. Each level suggests to me where to go next, and limits me to (and reminds me of) tools associated with the task at hand.

With Windows 8 I will have 250+ tiles to scroll sideways through, none of which are readable at a glance because of their size, spacing and typography!

Also, the Windows 8 search function will not help me find something if I can't remember its name and exactly how it is spelled! With the sheer number of minor tools in numerous suites, such as Visual Studio or Poser, various photo-editing tools, etc, this is a significant usability problem.

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