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Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols & Paula Rooney

Is the iCloud the end of the Linux & Windows desktop?

By | June 6, 2011, 4:50pm PDT

Summary: Lion isn’t a cloud operating system the way Google Chrome OS is, but you can see one possible cloud desktop future from it.

I think a cloud-based operating system, like Google’ Chrome OS, has a bright future. But, when I look at Apple’s Lion, which will only be available as an upgrade by a 4GB download, and iCloud plans I begin to wonder just how much any fat-client operating system-Linux, Mac OS X, or Windows-have if Apple and Google have their way.

As Jobs put it, the PC centric data model is broken. And, so the digital hub will move from being the PC to the iCloud and the Mac will be “demoted.”

What did he mean by that? My fellow ZDNet writer, Andrew Nusca, put it well, “Mac vs. PC vs. Linux argument from the early days of consumer computing has lost a great deal of its luster in recent years with the development of cloud computing on the open web.” The operating system wars are far from over though. Nusca continued, “Concept of platform wars is quickly making up for lost ground with the development of cloud computing in the closed mobile space.”

I’ve always thought that thin-client computing has its place in technology. That’s one reason why I think Google’s Chrome OS has a real shot in dethroning the Window desktop in the office. By making the iCloud the center of everything, instead of the Mac, Apple is trying to wean consumers away from the fat-client PC model that’s served us so well since the day the first IBM PC rolled off the assembly line.

This worries me. If you had fast bandwidth and enough room on your data cap, cloud-based computing is fine. Many of us are already using every day. Oh, you may not think of using Gmail or Google Docs as being on the cloud, but it is and you are.

It’s so darn easy when all you really need to get work done from anywhere is an Internet connection and a Web browser. Forget your file at the office? Just grab your copy from Dropbox, and you’re good to go. But, Jobs takes it even farther. All your data will be on the iCloud and it’s automatically pushed to any of your devices.

It sounds great doesn’t it? I think it sound great too, but, and this is a big one, do you really want to trust Apple or Google with all your data? What happens if you don’t pay your fee to Apple? What happens if the Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA) demands a copyright audit of all my music on iTunes Match?

Page 2: [The bitterness in the sweet] »

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Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols, aka sjvn, has been writing about technology and the business of technology since CP/M-80 was the cutting edge, PC operating system

Disclosure

Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols

Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols is a freelance writer. He does not own stocks or other investments in any technology company.

Biography

Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols

Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols, aka sjvn, has been writing about technology and the business of technology since CP/M-80 was the cutting edge, PC operating system; 300bps was a fast Internet connection; WordStar was the state of the art word processor; and we liked it!

His work has been published in everything from highly technical publications (IEEE Computer, ACM NetWorker, Byte) to business publications (eWEEK, InformationWeek, ZDNet) to popular technology (Computer Shopper, PC Magazine, PC World) to the mainstream press (Washington Post, San Francisco Chronicle, BusinessWeek).

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RE: Is the iCloud the end of the Linux & Windows desktop?
techadmin.cc@... 23rd Jun
Steven,
I really hate to come across as an extremist but with Microsoft, at the end of the day, you do not "own" your copy of Windows. You only have a license to use it, and then, only under the terms and conditions of the EULA.
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Has Steven flipped out?
Cynical99 6th Jun
"I?d prefer to see fat-client desktops like Mint 11 Linux, and, yes, even Windows 7, to continue on for so long as we continue to use computers."

Never thought I'd see the day when Steven would support Windows over any alternative, yet he dislikes the cloud so much that he'd take Windows first.

The cloud has a certain seductive appeal, yet, there's that control thing. I don't control anything on the cloud, even if I own it. Someone else controls it.

The cloud has some applications, but, for me, I'll keep that broken PC centric data model for the near future, until the security, legal, and technical issues of the "cloud" work themselves out. At least then I'll understand the risk and be able to mitigate properly.

Gads, I think we agreed on something! It may never happen again -
@Cynical99

Well put.
@josh92: like this, for example:

"I think it sound great too, but, and this is a big one, do you really want to trust Apple or Google with all your data? What happens if you don?t pay your fee to Apple? What happens if the Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA) demands a copyright audit of all my music on iTunes Match?"

1. Since Apple stores your information in full on at least of one your devices -- plus, you have complete back-up on your Mac/PC -- there is nothing to fear, globally, even if iCloud will, all of sudden, stumble.

2. There is nothing to pay to Apple for the data. iTunes Match service, the only payable, has nothing do to with documents or whatever else media and files that iCloud will store free. There is no you are being cut off of your data scenario.

3. RIAA will order nothing in terms of audit since Apple contracted all of major music labels.

So, as of now, your concerns are unsound.
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And I have a bridge for sale
Economister 7th Jun
@DeRSSS

I guess you have trouble seeing where this is heading. By the time it is patently obvious to you it will be too late. You will have given up control of your system, including what you can run in it. And of course you will have to make your monthly payment for "them helping you".

Over my dead body.
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Concerns unsound??
Cynical99 7th Jun
@DeRSSS
Actually the concerns are very sound, your view is very narrow. I don't keep music online, so not an issue for me, but when the Feds show up with a request for my documents, and with or without a search warrant, will the Cloud vendor even bother to tell me?

What about security algorithms? RSS was hacked and it appears the seed numbers and algorithms stolen.

Worst is performance. I work with a corporate cloud environment now. In the office, it's acceptable, but out of the office, large files are slow, slow, slow. Performance is definitely an issue.

Your views are so incredibly narrow that they negate the value of your comment.
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Absolutes are a bad thing
vulpine@... 7th Jun
@economister:
While I don't necessarily argue that things could go where you fear, it isn't set in stone. As yet Apple isn't dragging all your data out of your machine and into the cloud; you still have control of what, if anything, you wish to put up there. Personally, I'm not a fan of the mainframe/terminal concept for the same reasons they had issues back in the '50s and '60s; time share generates lag and errors as your network grows.

On the other hand, I do see a possibility where dedicated mainframe devices--like today's supercomputers--will gradually fall to the power of distributed computing as has been seen recently with a number of medically-related projects which have seen sudden great strides in cancer and other disease control. Such distributed computing could also include more advanced weather monitoring and warning systems which could help reduce the loss of life such as we saw in Joplin, Missouri last month by detecting sudden changes in barometric pressure and wind speed and direction far more quickly and accurately than the relatively limited number of 'official' weather stations the NWS has to work with.

The point is that while things could go the way you fear, you could also simply be fear-mongering, trying to drive users away from Apple to some other system that could be as bad or worse than what Apple develops. Personally, one thing I have to say for Apple in the long run is that their products and services have been more reliable and usable on average than any other system I've used, even if those other systems were first or more popular than Apple's. I've been accused of being paranoid--especially about my computing--but compared to other brands, Apple has rarely disappointed me.
@josh92
I agree, security is far from being perfect on any platform and the cloud is a scary example to rely on. For many businesses it may be the way to go in order to keep overhead down, but for the geeks and gamers, the common pc is still going to be around for quite sometime and the need of a platform will still be there.
All this ICloud and other clould technology sounds good, till you do not have a internet connection, your ISP goes down, your router fails, or some other internet technology fails. Then were are you, you can not connet to your online data (music, pictures, movies, even more dishearting your financial, homework, ect.) This reminds me more of when you had a dumb terminal and a main frame that store all your data. It is a great Idea but no one seem to be talking about what it would mean when you can not get to your online containt, because of a Internet outage.
@DeRSSS
What planet were you born on?

1. I can see the point here, not much of an argument for this -- so long as the consumer has a FULL backup of ALL data -- and that the programs on the OS do not *require* the cloud to function.

2. I'm quite sure that there will be some form of limit. Apple isn't going to give away terabytes of storage for free. If you honestly believe that, then you are quite naive.

3. I am quite certain that if the RIAA/MPAA has signed any form of deal with Apple in regards to data storage services, then there will be a clause giving them the right to search the information. The only 'contracts' that Apple has right now with the recording and movie industries is for iTunes, which barely scratches the surface. Not only that, but I have thousands of MP3s on my machine that I ripped from original CDs, which have since been lost or destroyed -- so what happens then? I would have no concrete proof to fight the RIAA off. At least while the files are only stored locally, I have control of who may access it.
@Cynical99

You said it best. I'd rep your post a thousand times if I could.
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the never ending revenue stream
sparkle farkle Updated - 7th Jun
@Cynical99
at heart steve is just a salesman for a company looking to keep it's value. steady revenue streams play much better than cyclical opportunity, shareholders are happier because they get dividends on a regular basis, so apple becomes like a treasury note, confident that no-one would want to leave the table.

I waited for as long as I could in the microsoft's software cycle before adopting, things are just more likely to work. This is like going from xp sp3 or 4 to windows 98, so the transistion will be foolish except for those who need access to data they're not afraid to lose, which reads most corporations, who will in all likelihood keep backups and severs anyway if the have any sense. also school kids, and people who don't really use a computer for more than facebook.

I doubt that the cloud will roll out with a reliable alternative to photoshop, or video editing programs for the masses that would be affordable to intermediate users.

It's a big middle, and it will be a VERY long time before they change
@sparkle farkle apple does not pay dividends - the people rely on share value going up. right now a lot of the value for Apple is based upon the Cult of Jobs. Once he passes away, they will probably take a big hit
@Economister Or perhaps your association with companies like Microsoft has blunted your attitude toward everybody.

I do not want any one company with their hands on my data, but I would trust Google or Apple a Da*m site more than any others I know.

Sheesh, Apple haters everywhere!
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@OracleOfReason : can you explain why you would trust Google & Apple so much?... above all others
@OracleOfReason I would not trust Google with anything! Nor AT&T. Not sure about Apple, but I don't use any of their hardware or software. I much prefer owning my software and running it locally, and to keep my data local also. I do not want to be dependent upon any cloud. I use the Internet for access purposes only, not data storage. Many ways to access the Internet also, not just by my normal connection. Backup and redundancy...most important to survive. I am not an Apple hater, but am cautious about Google and others like them.
@Cynical99
Steven hasn't flipped out... recently. It happened years ago.

There is no question, in my mind, that the cloud is the future enterprise environment. But, that MUST be a private cloud for security reasons.

Apple, with it's koolaid filled cups being given out by Hooter's girls and Chippendale men for free on the streets, thinks they can out do Google by offering an inferior product for more money but appear to be the best. So far our ever more amoral society has given Jobs the thumbs up on that thinking. Sooner or later the tides will turn, hopefully in my life time, and people will stop focusing on their phone and start focusing on the people standing right next to them again.
@MedicNYC: You make assumptions based on no real data. At best that's poor logic and at worst it's pure conjecture without anything to back it up.
"Apple, ... thinks they can out do Google by offering an inferior product for more money but appear to be the best."
Please explain this assumption? In what way is the iCloud inferior to Google's offering and in what way is it for more money when Apple is doing it for free? Or are you talking about something else entirely that has no bearing on this discussion at all?
@Cynical99 I'm as surprised as you that Steven didn't go through his typical windows-bashing routine. Will wonders never cease? Yet he stuck with the usual attention grabbing yet totally misleading headline, so I suppose some things never change...
The best is to keep hardcopy or no computers at all, since coms can get hacked, no matter how secure.

No wait, home might get broken into. We need a vault. Yes ! That's the most secure way to protect our assets and prying eyes !
An air-tight vault is the only way to keep ourselves safe from harm!
which would involve having people's data, in secure "data banks", sort of like vaults in a bank, and where people would have their own secure storage devices, and not shared with others. It would be like a warehouse with high security, and people would have their own storage devices, with enough computing available (I/O and connection and security capabilities) to access that data, but no real computer behind it. With IPV6 already available, each storage device would have its own web address, and only the device owner would have access to it. That kind of storage warehouse, would serve as a person's very own "cloud storage", and the cloud storage from Microsoft and Google and Apple and others, could still be used for "insignificant stuff" if one still desired to use those services.

However, the secured warehouse storage, or the personal cloud system (PCS:as I would call it), would have a back up of its own, and that would actually be the primary system which people would still have at home, where all of their computing devices would reside. However, the mobile devices, tablets, smartphones, laptops, and netbooks, would have access to the personal storage cloud and the home-based storage.

If something like that could be pulled off, then the big cloud solutions, especially for storage, would eventually become irrelevant.
@orangemike,

lol
@martg what are the chances that absolutely all the houses in town are broken in and all the vaulables are stolen? Zero. If the crooks have a superuser password they can access ALL the files in the cloud. big difference!
@Cynical99

Agreed
@Cynical99
Can you play Call of Duty on Chrome? Hell No!
Cloud based OS's are fine if everything you do is in a browser.
@Cynical99
i agree with that! I dread the day when all of the operating systems move to a 'cloud' approach. I personally don't liek the idea of some corporation whose sole drive is to make money, to have my data. If by chance a hacker makes it into the system, or a soft/hardware failure occurs, there goes your data. And here is another simple but powerful thought: You may not see the day that you can't afford to pay your OS subscription, but let's say something disastrous occurs, and you're unable to pay -- there goes your data!

No matter how many people jump on the cloud bandwagon, I refuse to be one of them.

I'll happily keep my linux, windows, and other OS's here on my own person hardware, thank you
@Cynical99 Amen to that!

"Is the iCloud the end of the Linux & Windows desktop?"

Nope.
@Cynical99 Don't forget Facebook!!!!!
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Hi happy There are just too many places and situations where Cloud is not viable. Having back-ups and works-in-progress stored locally seems a fairly smart way of dealing with it. Similarly with apps that can use the locally stored data. The way i see it there will be a few years while everyone jumps all over this Cloud thing and then some useful middle-ground position will be found to be optimum, a bit like the .com boom.
Regards from Tom happy
@Cynical99
I think cloud computing has a bright future but it is too early. It can only flourish when fiber optics broadband is ubiquitous. At these speeds all apps can be downloaded and run on the fly. I think in the future the client will have many different interfaces in addition to the browser and a web based device will have no limitations...
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enough room on your data cap
DioGratia 6th Jun
New Zealand in particular can't fully participate. A Lion download would represent 20 - 40 % of the typical data cap here, even without worrying about download retries. Then there's the nagging bit there aren't incremental updates in the Mac App Store, so those 4 or so updates a year do it again.

It wouldn't seem likely that here in the land of the long bandwidth cap you could afford to allow your Mac free access to Cloud services. You gotta have enough Internet for it to work as a free distribution system.
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Data cap
Cynical99 6th Jun
@DioGratia -
I do understand your issues. The Cloud only works with sufficient high speed access to provide proper response, and enough data cap to do the job.

Normally I have nearly unlimited bandwidth, however one issue I face is travel. From time to time I may travel internationally and face the same data caps you do. So, until the global bandwidth issues are fixed, for me the cloud is just a dream.

Just one more technical issue that must be fixed before the cloud is truly viable.
@Cynical99

I make one contention. This is not a technical issue. The data caps are a function of the ISPs SCREWING us. There is so much dark fiber on the internet I weep. Literally, Cisco and HP need to stop doing business with the last mile providers. The ISPs are trying to put us out of business by raising rates while selling customers the same equipment they purchased from us ten years ago. FX is STILL HP's third highest selling transceiver SKU. HP & Cisco marketing need to stop looking at them as large customers and recognize them for what they are, the enemy of mankind.
@tkejlboom Seriously? there are just that many users that can shuttle their data through an optic fiber or a copper wire. Data caps are real, man.
@Cynical99

I just hate it when you make sense and that I have to agree with you....thankfully I don't have to this time!

The internet goes down for an extended period of time.

As you stated you travel, and there are problems abroad.

There is a disaster near your area that impacts you.

There is cyber terrorism and the clouds fall from the sky.

Some agency makes policy changes that negatively impact you.

Your services are hosted in a foriegn country that doesn't much care about little things like human rights, privacy, honesty, and so on.

If one person can leak hundreds of thousands of classified documents to Wikileaks, what could one person do if millions of people commputed in the cloud?

I haaaaaaaaaaaaate it when I don't have data service on my awesome Dell Venue Pro, did I mention that my Dell Venue Pro is a fantastic device...in case I didn't, I love my Dell Venue Pro (and WP7)....anyway I am bummed when I don't have data connectivty (on my WP7, which is a Dell Venu Pro...LOL). So how would survive if I had to do all of my computing in the cloud?

There are more nightmares than questions that simply cannot be worked out.
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@tkejboom .. hold it right there!
thx-1138_@... 11th Jun
"...This is not a technical issue. The data caps are a function of the ISPs SCREWING us. "

Get a clue. Whilst, granted, ISP's ultimately can (..and do) control throughput to your doorstep (i.e. last mile), the data cap is a *real* physical layer issue - and not wholly attributable to ISP traffic shaping / throttling.

pupkin_z is absolutely right in inference: no matter which media is in use, the capacity of that line will still, always, represent the actual, physical data cap for any given distribution circuit - and in particular to BGP traffic-routing interconnects.

Please do some reading on 'line capacities' before jumping in and spreading misleading and erroneous material.

Sincerely.
@DioGratia
Even here in the USA, there are many people who not only have a capped Internet connection, but also a very slow one. Until everybody has at least as fast a connection to the Internet as the slowest optical drive data path, this can never be universal. Also there is nothing that prevents an ISP from extorting more money from users according to what kind of information the ones and zeros traveling over their wires represent.

I can see storing critical data in an encrypted form on some distant server somewhere out there, in case the house burns down, but for most people the Internet connection is way too slow to substitute for even the slowest hard drive.

These are the technical issues, but then, as many people have pointed out, there are lots of social and legal issues. When a government or a hostile lawyer wants anyone's data, no faceless corporation will so much as blink and hand it over without question, whether by legal court order or not.
@DioGratia
My Parents blew their data cap with good old Ubuntu updates back in NZ! It's in such stark contrast to my limitless data use here in Japan... and ten there's 3 strikes that the NZ government refuses to back down on despite overseas criticism (lot's of scenarios whereby innocents could end up cut off from a basic right with that kind of system). Unfortunately my beloved homeland is leaving itself in the dust of long since departed progress...
Err, Google supporting IE6 going forward? (Nope) The Chromebooks are brand new! Nothing is supported forever, video cassettes? Laserdisk?

Do I think everything is going to the Cloud? Nope. What Apple are doing is blurring the "fat client" and "the cloud". Expect Microsoft to do the same (isn't that what Office Live is?)

Google is weird, they have a "fat client" (Android) and a "pure cloud" (Chrome OS)... I think they are just willing to let these run and see what sticks.

Apple and Microsoft need a more coherent model than that (this IS their business - Google sells ads, this ISN'T their business).
@jeremychappell Don't get too confused between the product and the revenue model... Microsoft, Apple, and Google are all in similar businesses, even if they approach them from different viewpoints.

Google does have thin and not so thin client models, but even these are a deception.. the ChromeOS hardware is quite a bit "thicker" right now than the minimal Android client. This isn't old skool thin client; they're loading code from the cloud, but it will be locally cached, and the bulk of it run locally. The last big thin client push used X Windows... everything done remotely.

And Android isn't cloud based per se, but it's tightly integrated with the online world, far more than typical fat clients. And something Apple and others will follow.
@james347
but clouds disappear? and i like it when the sky is just blue, cloudless
@ozinanoypi

Poetic -- and well stated.
I don't understand how the cloud will kill operating systems. I use GDocs and Dropbox and it plays fine with whatever OS I have.

Linux is rapidly expanding and getting better, and is certainly more competent in the market than it was a couple years ago. And within the next few years, they will slowly but surely overtake proprietary operating systems.

"All your data will be on the iCloud and it?s automatically pushed to any of your devices."
I don't understand how that is any different than what Dropbox does.
@Sinani201

its by apple... that's what's different...

I don't think it will kill the "fat" operating systems anytime soon. Maybe in the next 5-6 years, sure I could see a transition, but right now, we're too heavily dependent on OS's that are beefy to their kernels. It will slow start moving over to cloud computing, maybe not with Apple's/Google's/MS's first gen Cloud computing system, but the 2nd and 3rd gen's I can see it growing
Let's be clear about this. Nobody is holding a gun to your head and forcing you to put ALL of your data in the cloud. If it makes sense to put it there, for sharing or collaboration or what ever, by all means store it "in the cloud". But if it so important or sensitive that you cannot trust your cloud provider to keep it secure, then keep it local and DO NOT STORE IT IN THE CLOUD. Even the Chrome Books will allow you to interact with your local network or local storage. This is nothing more than another tool to be used as you see fit.

Why does every new option need to be seen as a total replacement for what we now use. In the end, cloud computing will be an enhancement for the desktop paradigm, rather than a total replacement, at least in the near term.
@tietchen

But that's not what people are worried about (the short term that is). It's the long term that people are worried about. At least that's what I'm worried about. If cloud computing becomes so prevalent that few people buy hard drives or SSDs anymore then they will cease to be cheap. They may even become prohibitively expensive. Then you will be economically forced to use the cloud for everything. When most everyone only uses the cloud, then it will force everyone else to use the cloud for everything as well. It's a scary possibility.
@tietchen

Uh, Google is with Chrome OS. Unless you have a NAS setup, guess where your data is going? How many "average Joes" do you think have a NAS setup?
@tietchen

Because Steve Jobs is specifically stating that he sees (wants?) the cloud to replace fat-client desktop computing.
@bargeemike

Actually, I disagree. I think Apple WANTS to keep people using fat clients like OS X and iOS.

Apple's approach is fundamentally different from Google's. Google wants you to put all your stuff in the cloud (on its servers) ... and essentially none of it on your devices. They just access it via the net.

Apple, on the other hand, wants your data to be on ALL your devices, and iCloud is just a synchronization medium. Sure, some of your data will be stored there ... as a back-up ... but Apple's goal is to have all your data on all your devices as quickly as possible, so that you can use those devices anywhere -- including when you don't have internet access. Then, when you re-establish contact with a network, your work gets automatically backed up and sync'd.

That's very different from Google's approach. Oh, and Apple is doing it ad-free.

Why would Apple build its billion dollar data centers and provide all this stuff for free? Or an amazing OS X upgrade for just $30? (You watch ... it'll become free shortly, too -- like iOS ... and like MacOS Classic used to be.) Why? Because all this integration helps them sell hardware. If people use their devices -- because of how easily they "just work" -- they'll sell more devices.

Apple has sold 200 million iOS devices and some 50 million Macs. Assuming an average of $200 profit per device (for easy math), that's $40 Billion dollars. Would I spent a billion to make 40 billion? In a heart beat. And that doesn't even count the money they make from apps (even the ones they don't create) or music or licensing fees or so much other stuff.

For Apple, the software -- fat client AND cloud -- are merely a means to an end: a way to sell hardware.

That even makes their approach different than Microsoft, which aims to sell software, not hardware. Though, like Apple, WinLive/OfficeLive/XboxLive are extensions of the fat client software and help MS sell more of their core product.

Google? It's core product is advertising. So it gives away the software to get you to use its services/apps on its servers, so that it can deliver more ads to you. But to do that, you need to keep accessing their servers -- Google's cloud -- or Google doesn't get anything out of it.

There's nothing wrong with Google's model. In fact, there's a lot of really terrific things about it, not the least of which is that it's free and accessible on a variety of non-cutting-edge hardware. But because of that, Apple's and MS's offerings can always look better, more polished -- they're willing (and interested!) in selling you new hardware to run the new software to give you all the new bells and whistles.

Different approaches that I think will exist in parallel for a good long time. And, frankly, lots of people will use both. I know I will.
Steven,
I really hate to come across as an extremist but with Microsoft, at the end of the day, you do not "own" your copy of Windows. You only have a license to use it, and then, only under the terms and conditions of the EULA.

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