Yes, huge growth ahead
Short term, probably not
Best Argument: Short term, probably not
Baffled by the slow adoption
I was pretty surprised at the significant voting support for huge growth in the platform. I agree with Larry that growth likely won't happen immediately because people need to get these devices in their hands and some carriers (Verizon and Sprint) are not helping get them out there. I expected to see Microsoft pass 5% in 2011 and am a baffled by the slow adoption rate of such a good operating system. Then again, the hardware has lagged behind iOS and Android.
Nokia's Lumia 800 is one of the best pieces of mobile phone hardware ever made, with just the right screen size for pocketability, curves that make you want to always hold the device, and a display that has you staring for hours. The form factor is drop dead gorgeous and unique in the Windows Phone world. It's amazing that Nokia was able to get this out in just eight months and I look forward to seeing what they can do with more time and an advancing operating system.
Skeptical about smartphone tandem
Unlike Matthew, I'm decidedly less optimistic about Nokia's Windows Phone prospects in the U.S. First, carrier support at the moment is lacking. Carriers want a No. 3 platform, but don't seem to be convinced that Microsoft and Nokia can step up. In addition, Nokia is unproven in the U.S. market. And finally, Nokia and Microsoft lack a device that can work on a 4G Long-Term Evolution networks. Nokia and Microsoft need to get a LTE device to market before a 4G iPhone launches.
I'll give Nokia some props for getting a device out quickly, but the reality is that the device maker and Microsoft need to cook up a leapfrog innovation to compete. That’s a tall order considering most folks in the U.S. remain skeptical about this smartphone tandem.
WP7: Going back to Windows on a phone
This was a tough one to call. In one sense, Windows Phone 7 market share has nowhere to go but up and Nokia still has great sales distribution so that alone will naturally give the platform a nice shot in the arm in 2012. Although WP7 is a solid product, it's still saddled with the same problems that have caused it to do a belly flop in the market for the past year. People like smartphones and tablets because they aren't as complicated and cumbersome as PCs -- especially Windows PCs. People just don't seem to want to "go back to Windows" on a phone.