Between the Lines

Larry Dignan, Andrew Nusca and Rachel King

Windows 8: A bad bet

By | October 20, 2011, 12:07pm PDT

Summary: Have you really looked at Metro? I have. I see a flop.

Given my choice of desktops, I’m running Linux, but over the years Windows has gone from being a bad joke of a desktop operating systems–Windows ME and Vista–to being a reasonably good choice-Windows XP SP3 and Windows 7. But Windows 8? What the heck is Microsoft thinking?

After looking at Metro, Windows 8’s default interface, for the last month, all I see a lame, reactionary response to iPad and Android. In a broader sense, it’s Microsoft’s response to the move away from the desktop to smartphones and tablets.

Great Debate: Is Microsoft’s next operating system headed in the right direction?

Microsoft has made it clear that while there will be room for the Windows 7’s Aero style interface, in Windows 8, Microsoft really wants everyone working with the Metro interface and applications. When I look at Metro, I see gaudy colors, boxy designs, applications that can either run as a small tile or as full screen with no way to re-size or move windows. Where have I seen this before… Wait, I know! Windows 1.0!

No, I’m not kidding. Let’s take a look at Windows 1.0:

Windows 1.0

Windows 1.0

And, now let’s look at Windows 8’s Metro

Windows 8 Metro

Windows 8 Metro

Twenty-five plus years of user-interface development and this, this, is what we get!? Scary isn’t it?

If you want an interesting take on a universal interface, take a look at Ubuntu’s Unity desktop. Metro? It’s klutzy and even people who love Windows admit that “the jury’s still out on the touch/no touch question.

But, even if Metro was just a touch tablet interface I doubt that would find many users. Google’s Android 4.0, Ice Cream Sandwich and Apple’s iOS 5 already have better, more usable interfaces, and they’ll have years more to improve before Windows 8 actually arrives. This isn’t just my opinion. Look at the market. Metro is already Windows Phone 7.x’s interface and that OS has a tiny fraction of the smartphone market.

Besides, bread and butter Windows users already know the Windows interface. Metro is Not the Windows interface. Heck, Mac OS X Lion and Mint Linux 11’s GNOME 2.28 both look and feel more like Windows 7 than Windows 8 Metro does. Fortunately, you can use a more Windows’ like interface, but Microsoft really seems to want everyone to move to Metro.

Windows developers can’t love Metro either. They’ve spend years mastering .NET, Windows Communication Foundation (WCF), Windows Presentation Foundation (WPF), etc. etc. and now they have to learn WinRT and Jupiter/XAML? That’s bad enough, but since you’ll need to rewrite your app. for the more traditional Windows-style desktop your work load just doubled.

Metro is going to be a pain for both users and developers. It seems to me that with Metro, Microsoft is headed toward another Vista-sized fiasco.

Microsoft can’t afford that kind of disaster. This isn’t the 90s or the 2000s. Today, users buy tablets and smartphones. According to IDC, tablets alone in 2011 will equal 17% of the PC market’s sales. At the same time, tablet sales are growing explosively PCs sales are barely moving upward. If Windows 8 is a failure, Windows users won’t wait around for the next version the way they did for Windows 7, they’ll just continue to switch over from conventional PCs to Android and iOS devices.

Microsoft may never lose the PC market, but with Windows 8 and Metro they may never have a chance to win the growing, broader computing market of PCs, smartphones and tablets.

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Topics

Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols, aka sjvn, has been writing about technology and the business of technology since CP/M-80 was the cutting edge, PC operating system. Elsewhere on ZDNet, SJVN covers Networking and Open Source.

Disclosure

Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols

Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols is a freelance writer. He does not own stocks or other investments in any technology company.

Biography

Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols

Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols, aka sjvn, has been writing about technology and the business of technology since CP/M-80 was the cutting edge, PC operating system; 300bps was a fast Internet connection; WordStar was the state of the art word processor; and we liked it.

His work has been published in everything from highly technical publications (IEEE Computer, ACM NetWorker, Byte) to business publications (eWEEK, InformationWeek, ZDNet) to popular technology (Computer Shopper, PC Magazine, PC World) to the mainstream press (Washington Post, San Francisco Chronicle, BusinessWeek).

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agreed
sjcooley 6th May
too dumbed down indeed... windows 8 seems to be windows response to the basic computer users lack of ability to use a computer. It appears to be too user friendly. The complexities of previous windows operating systems, though very few actually existed, appear to have been eliminated altogether. That all seems well, but i feel it will inevitably fail.
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RE: Windows 8: A bad bet
1773 20th Oct
With Ed Bott steamrolling SJVN with multiple 100+ comments blogs, he had to do something !!! grin
1 Vote
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RE: Windows 8: A bad bet
none none Updated - 20th Oct
@1773

I agree that Ed Bott is winning the race to the bottom. But he's doing it by calling people fanatics and lying about their views. Sure-fire way to generate comments.

As far as Windows 8: I couldn't care less.





happy
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Agreed.
Zogg 20th Oct
@none none
I have only two (related) concerns with Windows 8 - being able to buy a desktop PC without it, or being able to install an OS of my choice after I erase it.

Metro is someone else's problem.
Just offer a dual boot Windows 8 / Linux PC.

You'll sell hundreds of millions.
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@toddybottom
Be my guest.
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I think it is a terrible idea
toddybottom 20th Oct
I think the worldwide demand for a dual boot Windows 8 / Linux PC is less than 100.

But you seem to think there are far more. Put your money where your mouth is. Invest in your new business idea. Unless you have no confidence in what you are saying.
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Go away, toddybottom
Zogg 20th Oct
@toddybottom
I'm bored with your childish distortions and misrepresentations already.
0 Votes
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I didn't think so.
  • Flagged
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Sales figures tell the story
toddybottom Updated - 20th Oct
@none none
There are clearly far more people who couldn't care less about Ubuntu than there are people who couldn't care less about Windows.
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RE: Windows 8: A bad bet
none none 20th Oct
@toddybottom

I think the worldwide demand for a dual boot Windows 8 / Linux PC is less than 100.

Which is why you're not to be taken seriously.




happy
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@1773
Yeah, I know - I had to laugh at that too! Of course the ol' "unity is a great UI' had to thrown in there, too wink

SJVN is just upset that his predictions of Android being the go to OS for tablets didn't pan out, I guess he has to misdirect where ever he can. grin
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RE: Windows 8: A bad bet
Martijn2 20th Oct
@1773
That's sadly true, some people get the views by writing good articles, others need to troll to get some attention.
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RE: Windows 8: A bad bet
LoverockDavidson_-24231404894599612871915491754222 20th Oct
@1773
+1
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RE: Windows 8: A bad bet
Habiloso 20th Oct
@1773
Like it or not, Ms has a long history of making every second version of Windows a "dog". REcently, Vista was a dog and W7 a success. The real question here is whether MS can break that history with W8 or whether W8 will be the next horrid OS thrust upon the masses.
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RE: Windows 8: A bad bet
Rabid Howler Monkey 24th Oct
@Habiloso wrote:
"Ms has a long history of making every second version of Windows a "dog"

Really? How about Windows NT 4 -> Windows 2000 -> Windows XP? Are you suggesting that Windows 2000 was a "dog"?
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Reaping what we sow
ALISON SMOCK 21st Oct
Dumbed down country -> Fisher-Price user interface
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RE: Windows 8: A bad bet
THavoc 20th Oct
Don't forget, according to 'some' here in the Talkback, tablets are just a fad. So why would MS design an OS to work on a tablet?
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RE: Windows 8: A bad bet
MLHACK 20th Oct
@THavoc

Because MS is trying to get a piece of the tablet pie before it is all gone. They have seen Apple making buckets of money on these. I am not sure if i would go with the word fad but i do think the tablet crazy will die down in the near future ipad2 sales show this. These are consumption devices movies,meetings (enterprise use) etc. i have owned an ipad but found i was going back to my laptop for any real internet browsing etc. There are a few things tablets are nice for but 500 is not worth what i do with them.
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RE: Windows 8: A bad bet
THavoc 20th Oct
@MLHACK
No, I'm not saying they are a fad. I hear on here quite often: 'It's a passing fad', 'Cant do real work on them', etc. If this were true, I really don't think MS would commit a 5-6 year development cycle on something like this.
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RE: Windows 8: A bad bet
bean520 24th Oct
@THavoc

And how many years did this same company spend on Windows Vista? Granted, they will be able to pull some of the new technologies forward if this flops, just like they did with Vista
0 Votes
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RE: Windows 8: A bad bet
kris_stapley@... 14th Nov
@THavoc
The tablet form factor is not a fad, just the semi-useless software that they run. MS is trying to fix this.
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RE: Windows 8: A bad bet
timiteh 20th Oct
Why it doesn't surprise me ?
Are you not tired of this silly little game ?
Do you have no life ?
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RE: Windows 8: A bad bet
Cylon Centurion Updated - 20th Oct
Unity? Seriously? You want Microsoft to go back to klutzy, and non descriptive drop downs? Unity is nowhere near being an efficient UI as Windows' is.

Something tells me you're just afraid of change. Have you even sat down with the DP? I have, and while I have many, many questions, I'm waiting until the actual beta before I make any judgement about the UI. How about a Windows Phone? Have you used one? Or did you just pass judgement there too?
Metro UI is very easy to use, and the live tiles are simply amazing. It's great to be able to get weather forecast or calendar entries at a glance. Even Facebook updates come through on my "me" tile. I don't even have to venture into the Facebook app anymore.
1 Vote
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RE: Windows 8: A bad bet
NathanaelCulver 20th Oct
@Cylon Centurion "It's great to be able to get weather forecast or calendar entries at a glance."

Cool - just like Android!
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RE: Windows 8: A bad bet
markh789 24th Oct
@NathanaelCulver My old Nokia phone did this too!
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RE: Windows 8: A bad bet
kris_stapley@... 14th Nov
@NathanaelCulver
Yeah, but the user experience doesn't take a crap after a few apps are installed... and doesn't require a battery sucking dual core processor just to meet par.
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RE: Windows 8: A bad bet
blackepyon01@... 21st Oct
@Cylon Centurion
There's a difference between being afraid of the change, and not liking the change. If you like it, fine. But the rest of us are going to go out of our ways to turn Metro off, if we're forced to upgrade at all.
Many offices and home users are milking XP for as long as they can, not because they're affraid of learning a new UI, but because they like what they already have, because XP does exactly what they want it to and the higher versions don't offer any big enough advantage to put up with a UI that they don't like.
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RE: Windows 8: A bad bet
widdybear 24th Oct
@blackepyon01@... I tend to agree I milked WinXP forever and still have it on my PC with both Vista and Win7 on the same hard drive. Too many games old and new play on XP and Vista. Try the older games on Win7 good luck with that. I use Vista and XP regularly.
As for this Win8 its not pretty but usable if you want your PC to look like a tablet. Personally I would rather have XP or even Vista on a tablet.
I don't have a tablet because I can't build one. I have built my own PCs since they were created decades ago. Only four years ago I began building my own laptops.
I am not going to be one of those people who goes out and eats 600 clams for something I can only use via an expensive bill or trying desperately to find a wifi signal to use it.
One other thing about XP all that software you bought back when still works on it is still loadable and you don't have to pay some yearly ridiculous fee every year to use the software like on Vista and Win7 where you have go out and rebuy or pay the subscription fee every year. Although Vista will still use the old software too. Not all of it.
No I figure I will milk Vista and XP for all its worth not by fear but just plain because I really don't much like Win8.
I have a thing about asthetics. I have tweaked my PC OSs theme-wise out the ying-yang. I have themed everything on all of them right down to the start orbs and sys files. Win8 is just plain "ugly" asthetically speaking. MS needs to make a PC version.
0 Votes
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RE: Windows 8: A bad bet
serpentmage 24th Oct
@Cylon Centurion Sure you can see the weather forecast or calendar entries, if you are a three year old!

My problem with the Metro UI is that it is eye candy! It is not useful. Take my case, Metro UI has some example of stock market quotes. Wow, I thought, wow this should be cool.

Then what I saw I thought, "you nutters". The Metro UI shows stock quotes for those that are not that interested in stock quotes or work at a company and want to see how their options are doing. Not for somebody who actually works with stock quotes.

The Metro UI is an attempt by Steve Jobs to simplify, but it does so by dumbing down. Dumbing down is not what Steve was in the business of. I have switched to Linux because I am tired of these hot cold operating systems. In the past it meant simply new interface, but now as a developer I have to say, "bye bye" since I don't want to be around when Microsoft cans WinRT.
0 Votes
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RE: Windows 8: A bad bet
kirovs@... 24th Oct
@serpentmage
I am sure you meant Balmer.
0 Votes
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RE: Windows 8: A bad bet
kirovs@... 24th Oct
@Cylon Centurion
Weather and calendar in Ubuntu are a mouse over away. That must be real hard for you.
I doubt you have ever used Linux but you give your opinion nonetheless. This is called trolling. Now go away.
0 Votes
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RE: Windows 8: A bad bet
bean520 24th Oct
@kirovs@...

Unity at least makes it easy to see what is going on when you hit the start button. Other than that Metro is simply a show of what Unity and GNOME 3 have been doing for ages, minus the concessions for desktop users both of these two made for desktop users. On a full-fledged laptop, I actually love it, and I could see these actually becoming a productive (if not popular) interface for tablets. The programs may need work, though, and this is where I believe Metro will win out, when it ports Office et al
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RE: Windows 8: A bad bet
Rick_Kl 14th Nov
@Cylon Centurion I have honestly seen it when it first came out (zune sort of hd). The buying public rejected it. Then came the kin (version 1.1), again the general public rejected it. Microsoft wants this interface for some unknown reason, at least unknown to the buying public. Personally I think Microsoft is looking to exert more control over the hardware the allow you to rent. Microsoft has already declared that any hardware with windows on it as their property. Then again all software companies try to foist that lie on the public. Microsoft???s main goal is to gain control over every aspect of daily life. from tracking where the user goes (Windows mobile 7 sends location data back to Microsoft) to what the end user can install, and who writes it. G back and watch the movie Tron, the master Control Program (MCP) was modeled after Microsoft.
0 Votes
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"Microsoft can???t afford that kind of disaster. This isn???t the 90s or the 2000s. Today, users buy tablets and smartphones."

So what you are saying is that MS can't afford to mess up with Windows because if they do, people will just buy something else. Clearly then, MS has lost its monopoly powers.

Yet the mere mention of UEFI secure boot and miraculously, MS has regained monopoly powers.

Either MS has monopoly powers in which case they can put whatever UI they want on Windows 8 and people will be forced to buy it or they don't have monopoly powers in which case they should be allowed to compete just like everyone else and be able to specify anything they want for a computer to get a "Windows 8 Certified" logo.

But you won't answer this post. I'll go ahead and call you a coward right now.
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RE: Windows 8: A bad bet
markbn 22nd Oct
@toddybottom I don't have any intention of defending SFVN, but I don't think your argument is very compelling.

Windows may have a monopoly in Desktop PCs, and if MS pushes Metro in there, there will be little alternatives to those users. However, the real question is how relevant will that monopoly be in the near future. Smart-phones and tablets are gaining a lot of sales momentum, but the success of MS in those two device spaces (in which it does NOT have any monopoly) may be doomed if they insist on Metro.
0 Votes
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RE: Windows 8: A bad bet
bean520 24th Oct
@toddybottom

They have a monopoly on the DESKTOP. They do not have a monopoly on the TABLET, in fact as far as tablets go, they don't even have a look-in. The fact that they are insisting on UEFI to be enabled, if it is indeed for lock-in purposes, would be to prevent the userbase switching to Android. The fact that these Win8 tablets will be running an OS which, in the past, practically allowed open-season as far as replacing the OS is concerned, means that they could perceivably have more difficulty retaining their userbase if things go wrong (the user would be able to switch at will). The UEFI would be there to prevent that, but since it is also mandated for desktops, where they DO have a market monopoly, is what the Linux community is crying out against
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RE: Windows 8: A bad bet
rwalrond Updated - 20th Oct
So what you're saying is Microsoft should just re-release Win7 and call it Win8, then wait for folks like Apple and Google to lead the way before making any changes to Windows? What a Joke! The computer world complained when we shifted from DOS, they complained again when the Start Menu was introduced. We'll look back in history and it will be no different. The world would have complained, but Microsoft will push forward leading the pack (which is what you should expect them to do). Microsoft has been in an anti-trust coma for the last 10 years, they finally wake up and try and bring something different to the table and you and some others want them to tone it down? As a developer I'm super excited about anything Microsoft can do to bring opportunity my way. With the new Metro Apps and Windows Store, I see $$$ in my future.
What I'd really like to know is what you would consider a failure for Win8? Perhaps only capturing 80% of the market, or maybe only selling 300 million copies? What would you consider a failure? oh BTW it's just a developer preview, lets see what changes if any Microsoft makes to bring their vision together before you write it off as a bad bet.
0 Votes
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I'll make a prediction
toddybottom 20th Oct
@rwalrond
MS will sell more Windows 8 licenses in the first week than the entire installed base of Ubuntu (both desktop and server).

Just like Vista did.

Just like ME did.
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RE: Windows 8: A bad bet
Aerowind 20th Oct
@toddybottom That's a sucker bet.
0 Votes
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RE: Windows 8: A bad bet
William Farrell 20th Oct
@toddybottom
+1, (and then some) grin
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RE: Windows 8: A bad bet
hubivedder 20th Oct
@toddybottom
I predict that within a month we'll see a Linux Distro skinned like Metro.

Microsoft gets bagged for not being innovative but if you read the B8 blog and get a sense for the research, telemetry and consideration put into Win8 then you'll know why Microsoft has maintained its leadership.
0 Votes
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RE: Windows 8: A bad bet
thejellymon 20th Oct
@rwalrond Cheers.
0 Votes
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RE: Windows 8: A bad bet
bean520 Updated - 24th Oct
>Removed by poster
0 Votes
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RE: Windows 8: A bad bet
rshol 22nd Oct
@rwalrond
"just re-release Win7 and call it Win8"

Not at all, just give us Win 8, which has a number of really interesting improvements under the hood, and leave off Metro.
0 Votes
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RE: Windows 8: A bad bet
thejellymon 20th Oct
Steven, you seem angry? Not sure if that is the direction I would go in to writing this. You make the point that the tech industry is moving towards smartphones and tablets, so it makes sense to design windows 8 to work best on those devices without losing the core Windows experience underneath.

Windows 1.0 is actually not a bad reference???OS's are designed with specific functionalities in mind. Windows 1.0 was designed to handle simple functions, not too dissimilar to the tablet and smartphone market now; most users use the basic features of these devices. This comes back to the fact that Windows 8 is a recognition on how users are using their devices. Surely power users will use it in "typical windows mode", but most wont need to.

This OS is also great for when you have a household computer and want to get on and do something quickly, easily, beautifully. Mac OS X Lion has failed to enhance the personal computer OS in terms of simplifying functionality to reach out to the users on tablets and smartphones.
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RE: Windows 8: A bad bet
chris3145 20th Oct
@thejellymon
I don't want my computer to be dumbed down to phone level. I use a desktop to use a desktop. If I want to use a phone, I'll use a phone.
0 Votes
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Exactly!
blackepyon01@... 21st Oct
@chris3145
I agree completely. A tablet, IMO is an over-amped e-reader. Any real work is done on my much more powerful desktop.
0 Votes
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RE: Windows 8: A bad bet
Harry S. 4th Nov
Why is it that everyone assumes that you cannot do real work on a tablet. Have you seen the Samsung tablets handed out at //build/? They come with a docking station that you can plug a keyboard/mouse into. Presto, a tablet acting like a desktop. And powerful enough to run Visual Studio, one of the most resource intensive hogs out there.
1 Vote
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RE: Windows 8: A bad bet
Peter Perry 20th Oct
I agree, I didn't like the UI on the phones and I don't like it on the desktop! I see a big failure here and possibly the return of BG to save his own company's Cash Cow!
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RE: Windows 8: A bad bet
Martijn2 Updated - 20th Oct
trololololololol

that is the only proper response you can give to a SJVN blog post. Just look at this twitter page (http://twitter.com/#!/sjvn), there are basically two subjects there: 1) oh Linux/Google is horny 2) M$/Windoze is the devilzz. I hope that SJVN doesn't fall on the category of journalist.
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agreed
sjcooley 6th May
too dumbed down indeed... windows 8 seems to be windows response to the basic computer users lack of ability to use a computer. It appears to be too user friendly. The complexities of previous windows operating systems, though very few actually existed, appear to have been eliminated altogether. That all seems well, but i feel it will inevitably fail.

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