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Adrian Kingsley-Hughes
Yes
No
Christopher Dawson
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I'll be posting my first question at 11am ET / 8am PT.
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I am for Yes
I am for No
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The Q3 global sales figures from Gartner have Android outselling the entire PC market by a wide margin: 122 million units versus 87 million units. How significant are these numbers?
As sales shift from PC to mobile, it is driving us from a world dominated by the PC into a the post-PC era where smaller, impersonal desktop and notebook systems are giving way to more personal devices.
Dollars spent on post-PC devices are dollars not being spent on PCs, and this is putting hardware OEMs -- most of which used to look at themselves as almost exclusively 'Microsoft hardware partners' -- in an awkward position of having to carve out a new market or risk a future of uncertainty and dwindling returns.
I am for Yes
The message is that nobody is buying feature phones anymore and are, instead, turning to smartphones. Because so many OEMs sell Android phones through every major carrier, often heavily subsidized (making them "free" or very inexpensive), it's a no-brainer that Android will have extremely strong sales. Everyone needs a phone. Not everyone needs a PC. Android tablets, with their generally low price tags (especially the Kindle Fire and Nook families and the Nexus 7) are approaching the realm of impulse buys, but remain largely entertainment-oriented consumer companion devices. Again, strong sales are no surprise here.
For a small subset of users (again, particularly among consumers), a tablet can certainly replace a PC, so there is some cannibalization of the PC market here. That said, while the PC market isn't what it used to be, it's still very strong. Real work is still largely dependent on a full-blown computer with a decent-sized screen and a full keyboard. Especially in the enterprise, users need PCs, even if those are increasingly tablet/ultrabook hybrids running Windows 8.
Bottom line, the numbers don't tell the full story of PC demand. They instead point to trends in smartphone and tablet adoption rather than "the death of the PC."
I am for No
In terms of its overall installed based, Windows still has a big lead over mobile platforms. How much does this still matter and how long will it last?
Right now, mobile devices such as smartphones and tablets are companion devices. They are an accessory that complements a desktop or notebook PC. People are happy juggling multiple devices. But this is likely to change.
I have no doubt that one day what we now refer to as companion devices will replace the PC, or at least change what we think of a PC. I remember when notebooks -- or laptops as they were called back then -- were looked at as companion devices because what you gained in terms of portability you lost in terms of power and versatility. Thanks to Moore's law, notebooks are now replacements for desktop systems. It won't be long until tablets are powerful enough to handle tasks that currently need a desktop or notebook system.
As tablets become more powerful, they will take over more and more of the functions that we currently turn to a desktop or notebook PC to carry out. I see the PC of the future -- and by future I'm thinking maybe five years into the future -- will be a tablet that can plug into a dock to transform it into a desktop system.
I am for Yes
On the consumer front, many people still rely on applications that haven't translated well to tablets. Office productivity suites and financial applications are the most important and people aren't going to be giving up Quicken, Word, or Excel anytime soon. People are increasingly comfortable turning to tablets and smartphones for entertainment, Web surfing, and communications which will continue to erode consumer PC demand, but Android devices are very much "companion devices" for most people. They are much loved, but when students need to write an essay or a small business owner needs to balance her books, they sit down to a PC.
On the enterprise front, the install base for Windows is even more important. Businesses have invested extraordinary amounts of time and money in Windows infrastructure, building out robust policy and management tools and relying heavily on Active Directory. Even the biggest cloud providers (like Google) ensure that their services integrate with Active Directory because most businesses run on Windows. Android won't be stepping in anytime soon to take over for Windows in the enterprise.
I am for No
Despite representing three quarters of new mobile devices being sold in Q3, Android is in the awkward position of not being the mobile platform of choice for developers. That distinction goes to iOS, mostly because its users purchase more apps. What does this say about Android's opportunity to become the world's most prevalent computing platform?
While it is true that developers like to "follow the money," and right now, the platform of choice for pulling in the most dollars per user is iOS, the huge and rapidly expanding Android user base is one that developers snub at their peril.
It might be harder to pry money from the wallets and purses of Android users, but there are more of them out there, and that itself presents many opportunities for developers to make money out of developing for Android.
I am for Yes
The recent release of the Nexus 4 (demand for which crushed Google's Play Store on both the initial day of sales and when pre-orders for a second round of phones went live last week) shows that Google is well aware of what it must do to become as important to developers as it is to consumers. The Nexus 4 thumbs its nose at carriers (Google even left off 4G/LTE and Verizon support to bypass the fragmentation that carriers impose on the ecosystem) and is being sold at a loss (estimated at nearly $200 a handset) to get a standardized, regularly updated, powerful platform into as many hands as possible.
Application sales aside, what would you rather develop for? Hundreds of different phones and tablets running several very different versions of an operating system or 4 devices (the iPad, iPad Mini, iPhone 4, and iPhone 5) running the same OS? The answer is obviously the latter. The fragmentation has to go.
However, once the fragmentation is addressed, Android has a real advantage for developers in that it allows much deeper developer access to the OS than iOS does. SwiftKey, for example, is a hugely popular Android-only app that provides an outstanding keyboard/predictive text interface for Android. The company can't sell anything like it on iOS because Apple doesn't allow the stock keyboard to be replaced. If these sorts of advantages can be leveraged, developers will embrace Android in ways they generally haven't to date.
I am for No
With Windows 8 and Windows Phone 8, Microsoft is attempting to unify the PC, tablet, and smartphone experience. Could this eventually turn the tide and allow Windows to recapture lost ground?
While there's no doubt that Microsoft is 'attempting' to unify the PC, tablet, and smartphone experience, I would argue that it is failing miserably.
The Windows brand is one that consumers and enterprise alike associate with desktop and notebook systems, but what Microsoft has tried to do is show-horn features that work on the Windows Phone platform into a desktop operating system in the hope that this will unify the user experience and drive tablet sales.
Rather than creating a unified experience, what Microsoft has done is broken the Windows user interface on the gamble that a new user interface for Windows is what was needed to create a market for Windows-powered tablets.
I am for Yes
The hardware innovation we're seeing in Windows 8 devices is compelling for consumers and IT staff looking to leverage their existing Windows infrastructure are far happier to provide tablets and phones to employees that they can easily manage with familiar existing tools.
Neither Android nor iOS will be crushed by the new approach out of Redmond. They're sexy, robust, and have massive traction among consumers and developers. However, if users can see a familiar interface regardless of the screen at which they're looking, that's certainly a powerful value add for Windows. Similarly, with the growing number of hybrids and slick, enterprise-ready tablet devices rising out of Windows 8, many users no longer need to have a PC and a tablet. Their PC *is* their tablet and vice versa. Even with the generally higher cost of Windows 8 tablet devices, that's a very attractive proposition. After all, how many devices do you really want to shove into your bag every day?
I am for No
Many of them still prefer BlackBerry because of its security and manageability, from an enterprise perspective. And many companies that are moving away from BlackBerry smartphones are migrating to iPhone. Why is that and can Android turn it around?
It's easy to think that it is the consumer vote that makes or breaks a smartphone. That's not true.
Enterprise users also play a significant factor, and the right set of business-centric features can shift the balance. The success of the Samsung Galaxy S III is testament to this. This is a handset that is also getting a lot of attention from enterprise and the bring-your-own-device (BYOD) crowd thanks to enterprise-friendly features such as AuthenTec's QuickSec VPN client technology which allows users to access corporate networks when out and about.
While there's no doubt that BlackBerry is losing favor, and that iOS is currently the winner thanks to this exodus, handsets such as the Galaxy S III will no doubt be of great interest to enterprise users.
I am for Yes
...but the biggest is consumerization/user demand. Just about everyone can afford an Android phone or tablet. Yet study after study has shown that iOS device buyers are intensely loyal. Android device buyers are either geeks or buy them based on cost and availability. Many would happily switch to iOS if they could. So if the company is picking up the tab, why not demand the devices you really want?
Apple also makes it much easier for enterprises to buy their products at scale. They have enterprise sales teams, attractive leasing and financing deals, and a direct sales infrastructure that every other OEM, as well as Google, can't touch right now. There really isn't an easier way to do a mass deployment of tablets or smartphones than through Apple. Again, the Nexus 4, 7, and 10 were opening volleys in Google's march into the enterprise. Sold and updated directly by Google, these devices are advancing what Google is already doing with their Chromebooks for enterprise customers. The short answer, then, is that Android can turn this around if Google continues to step away from carriers and builds out sales structures.
I am for No
Similarly, Android tablets are almost non-existent in the enterprise, where iPads are the tablets of choice and Windows 8 has a chance to capture some momentum as well. Will Android tablets catch on, and if not, will that hurt the long-term viability of Android as a ubiquitous platform?
Adoption of Android tablets by consumers will drive adoption in enterprise, thanks to increasing BYOD.
That said, Google does need to pay more attention to enterprise needs as it takes Android into the future, and also work with hardware makers -- especially the likes of Lenovo -- create the sorts of tablets that enterprise users want.
I am for Yes
1) They are very aggressively priced relative to Windows and Apple offerings
2) They integrate very well with Google Apps for Business
3) They have a variety of form factors and price points that allow businesses to deploy a relatively standard platform while meeting individual employee needs and controlling costs
However, Google has far more to fear from Microsoft than from iOS. If Microsoft and its OEM partners can control costs, Windows 8 tablets and hybrids will be obvious choices for Microsoft shops. Management and application compatibility will be too good to pass up.
To compete in this space, Google must address platform fragmentation, sales channels, desirability of its devices, and a software ecosystem that can't yet compete with Apple's or Microsoft's. Unless that happens, lack of traction in the enterprise will definitely have a negative impact on Android adoption in the aggregate.
I am for No
Google continues to keep Android and Chrome OS as separate platforms, even though Google co-founder Sergey Brin has said that they are destined to merge. Do you see that they will merge and that Android will eventually power desktops and laptops? How critical is that for it to become the next Windows?
A merging of Android and Chrome OS would be a huge danger to Microsoft as it would unify smartphones, tablets, desktops, and notebooks under a single operating system because it would remove the roadblocks associated with shifting between devices.
Given that Microsoft has already tried -- and failed -- to do this, and Apple seems to be slowing doing the same with OS X and iOS, it would make sense for Google to do this, and to do it as soon as possible. If Apple does it first, and manages to pull it off, then the iPad's dominance in both the home and enterprise markets could allow it to push more notebooks and desktops into these markets, and hamper Android's chances of success.
I am for Yes
Both ChromeOS and Android can run on either ARM or x86 hardware and both benefit from synchronization and integration with Google's services. The Chrome browser on Android (and iOS, for that matter) is quite robust and there are great, free productivity apps for the desktop version.
Why keep them separate? It just creates confusion for consumers. Web apps versus native mobile apps? Browser? Browser OS? Mobile OS with a browser? The company would be very well-served by merging Chrome OS and Android. In fact, this will be the key to the enterprise where Chrome already has considerable traction as a fast, secure browser and Chromebooks have been selling well for companies vested in Google's ecosystem or who might have been considering mobile thin clients.
I am for No
Even with its global penetration, what are the biggest obstacles Android still needs to overcome in order to continue its momentum?
Google needs to make getting updates out to users in a timely fashion a priority, even if this means doing what Apple -- and to a lesser extent Microsoft -- has done and cutting the carriers and hardware makers out of the equation.
Current levels of operating system fragmentation is causing a lot of grief for developers, and rather than getting better, the problem seems to be getting worse with each new release.
I am for Yes
The innovation is there, the market share is there, the functionality is there. And yet iOS continues to carry the mind share and is perceived as the mobile OS of choice for both consumers and businesses. Android needs to have a strong, cohesive brand built around flexibility and security and shed its image as either a geek's playground or the poor-man's iPhone. With the right branding and mind share will come the developers and the enterprise customers, as well as demand from the employees who are workers by day and consumers by night.
Right now, the Android brand is badly diluted by a fragmented platform and marketing that has failed to convince users of the benefits of Android over iOS. Those that use both mobile operating systems extensively may, in fact, argue that Jelly Bean walks all over iOS in many ways, but most consumers just think Siri is way cool and Apple has a cool factor that Android can't touch.
Google absolutely also needs to nail down sales and ecommerce. So far, every direct sales launch from Mountain View (with the exception of Chromebooks) has been an unmitigated disaster. Pre- and post-sales support is virtually non-existent and enterprise sales of Android devices can only happen through a limited network of third party resellers. Although direct sales are hardly Google's MO, they're incredibly important in B2B sales.
I am for No
If Cupertino can come up with a cut-priced iPhone that people really want -- in other words, something a little more compelling that an old version -- then that could really derail Android. While there's no such thing as a one-size-fits-all smartphone, the iPhone is the closest we have to that. If Apple could come up with a way of shaving $100 off the price of the iPhone, that would be the biggest thing to hit the smartphone market since the iPhone, putting Android growth in jeopardy.
Patents are also a problem in that settlements with the likes of Apple are eating into hardware maker's already razor-thin profit margins. The more deals that hardware makers have to cut, the less compelling it becomes to continue to invest in Android.
I am for Yes
1) Platform fragmentation and the resulting reluctance of developers to fully embrace the OS
2) Windows 8
3) Major Google privacy gaffes
4) A revolutionary enterprise-ready product line from Apple
5) Continued failures in direct sales
6) Major price drops on Apple products or big Apple patent wins that either drive up Android costs or push devices out of the market (or make it very unattractive for OEMs to produce Android devices)
I am for No
What are your predictions for the Android ecosystem over the next 24 months? And, will the enterprise get on board?
In a little under three years Android has grown from having a four percent unit share of the market to having a commanding 72 percent unit share, crushing the likes of RIM, Windows Phone, and Nokia's Symbian platform. The only platform that has withstood Android is iOS, and it is against this challenge that Google must rise, and rise it will. While Apple has the upper hand when it comes to profits per device, Android has a better market share, and this will allow it to put pressure on Cupertino.
I also believe that enterprise users will follow over the coming 24 months. Consumer market share always seem to come before gains in the enterprise markets, and with the increasing popularity of BYOD, Android's dominant consumer market share could pay off handsomely.
I am for Yes
With Google's current trajectory and the growing hardware/software ecosystem around Windows 8 in the enterprise, Android will continue to struggle in the business space. Some pretty significant changes in their B2B business model will be necessary for Android to catch up to iOS and fend off Windows 8. However, devices like the latest Nexus phones and tablets are very big steps in the right direction. They're fast, work very well, and can't be beat on price. They are also quite manageable from within Google Apps. They represent good deals for businesses, but Windows 8 hybrids are arguably more useful and Apple's reality distortion field is alive and well.
Chrome OS and Android will almost certainly be merged (and, in many ways, so will the Chrome browser) building a much larger developer community and we will see a continued move towards web apps that run anywhere instead of native apps for specific operating systems.
In the next two years, Android will be the de facto smartphone and tablet OS for consumers and new devices will expand their entertainment ecosystem. TVs and other consumer screens running Android will be available at such aggressive prices (especially as Google subsidizes their costs to get Google content and ads in front of more and more people) that consumers won't be able to resist them. Particularly entertainment and B2C developers and content creators will gravitate towards Android.
This is all good news for Google, but the enterprise remains the real prize. It will certainly be a real uphill battle for the company to gain ubiquity across verticals.
I am for No
And thank you readers for joining us. Please check back tomorrow when Adrian and Chris present their closing arguments. And do make a final swing through on Thursday when I deliver my verdict.
Good arguments, Chris.
I am for Yes
I am for No
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Adrian Kingsley-Hughes
Christopher Dawson
Jason Hiner
The growth and spread of Android is truly impressive, and we have to expect that the current sales of all these Android devices will attract more users, businesses, and third-party partners to the platform. However, Android still has some important obstacles to overcome. First and foremost, it's not the mobile platform of choice for developers. It has to win them over to be the top platform, though as Chris notes, the fact that Android allows deeper access to the system than iOS could eventually help its cause. Second, business aren't very keen on Android. They still prefer iOS and even BlackBerry to Android, for security and manageability reasons. Android must win them over as well. Android will also need to make a stronger play in tablets and computers. It's making some baby steps in tablets with the Nexus 7 and a merger with ChromeOS looks inevitable on the computer side. However, Android needs to make more progress on these platforms where people spend more time doing work. So, Android could become the next Windows, but it's certainly not there yet. It's also possible that there will not be a single dominant platform in the post-PC era and that there will inevitably be several healthy, thriving ecosystems.
Posted by Jason Hiner