CUPERTINO, Calif. - The study by International Data Corporation (IDC) "Worldwide Antivirus Software: It's Not Just a Consumer Product Anymore", is the first study to analyze the antivirus software market by server application.
"The Internet gateway is the fastest-growing segment of the antivirus market, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 43 percent from 1999 to 2004," according to IDC analyst Brian Burke.
The study states that this growth will raise this segment's share of the overall market from an estimated 24 percent in 1999 to a projected 41 percent in 2004. Trend Micro's 54.3 percent market share of the Internet gateway antivirus market gives it a lead.
Trend Micro CEO predicts 75 percent market share
Trend Micro chairman and CEO Steve Chang said that based on Trend Micro's triple-digit growth in the U.S. and Europe, InterScan should keep gaining market share, and may reach the 75 percent level in the next 18 months.
The IDC study projects the global antivirus market as a whole to grow from an estimated US$1.2 billion in sales in 1999 to US$2.7 billion in 2004, for a projected CAGR of 17 percent.
Beyond the solid numbers, IDC depicts an industry on the verge of major changes that will thoroughly transform current business models.
Among the major trends it foresees are a strong shift to the corporate market, increased migration to server-based and gateway implementations, the integration of antivirus with other content security functions, and the rise of a value-added service model with antivirus protection distributed through service providers via the Internet.
The IDC study pins the future growth of the antivirus market on "the expansion of ISPs, ASPs, and MSPs" which will "increasingly provide protection as a value-added service."