Why Schiller's Macworld keynote is a big deal in the big picture

There are two ways to view Philip Schiller's keynote at Macworld Tuesday: It was either a respectable effort by one of Steve Jobs' understudies or a bummer since the main attraction wasn't on stage and the announcements left a lot to be desired. Both would miss the big picture.

The big picture is this: For the long-term health of Apple the company needs to prove that it is more than just Steve Jobs. Jobs could stay at the helm of Apple for 10 months or 10 years. It doesn't really matter. At some point in the future, Apple will have to get along without Jobs whether retirement, a boardroom coup, cancer or a hormone imbalance leads to a change.

That's why Schiller's keynote, which probably benefited from low expectations, is more important than it initially appears. Apple is putting executives such as marketing guru Schiller and operating chief Tim Cook in the limelight to show it has a bench. The transition from Jobs is a gradual process that will take years to unfold if Apple is lucky.

Gallery: Macworld 2009 - Schiller's debut

If Apple has any sense it will simply steal the transition playbook from Microsoft instead of this press release back and forth it has deployed. The software giant telegraphed its management changes so it wouldn't spook customers and investors and followed through with a plan that made sense for all parties.

Remember Microsoft's transition? Bill Gates stepped down as CEO in January 2000 and handed the reins to Steve Ballmer, who became president of Microsoft in 1998. Gates continued as chief software architect for eight years and Microsoft highlighted a bunch of executives--notably Ray Ozzie. Gates' last day was June 27.

Microsoft's transition to a new management team took a decade to complete. Why should Apple be any different assuming Jobs' is healthy enough to continue? When the time is right Jobs should initiate a similar process.

Schiller's Macworld first and final keynote is likely to be the beginning of a transition to a post-Jobs Apple. The only unresolved issue is how long it will take to move beyond Jobs.

The truly successful and unique companies--Wal-Mart and Southwest Airlines come to mind--have managed to capture their founders' DNA in a bottle and carried it forward no matter who was in charge. That's Apple's challenge. Apple has proven time and again that it is formidable with Jobs at the helm. Without Jobs you get Gil Amelio and other weak hands running the ship.

Jobs' challenge is to solidify Apple's culture so the company carries his zeitgeist for decades to come. That process starts with highlighting lesser names like Schiller to prove Apple has a strong bench of talent.