Windows Phone to pass iOS by 2016, Android at 53%

I am not a fan of long term predictions in the mobile space, it just moves too fast, and while I would like to see stats like IDC predicts I will have to see it to believe it.
Written by Matthew Miller, Contributing Writer on

Readers here know that Windows Phone is one of my favorite platforms, especially with the Nokia Lumia 900, but I also regularly state that long term predictions in the mobile space are not very valid. Thus, even though I hope Windows Phone succeeds, I have a hard time buying into the latest IDC report that shows Windows Phone passing iOS by 2016. They are both predicted to be at about 19% of the market while Android falls from the current 61% to 52.9%.

Note that this prediction shows BlackBerry holding fairly steady at about 6%, but unless RIM has a major turnaround with BB OS 10 they may not even make it to 2016. I can see iOS remaining fairly steady since it seems people who want an iPhone already have an iPhone and Apple tends to sell new devices to existing iPhone users now. I would believe Android increasing more than Windows Phone increasing over the next four years, but we will just have to wait and see what happens.

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