DVRs short change your favorite programs?
Nielsen, the measurer of all things media, released a report last week on the impact of digital video recorders and, at the same time, introduced a new ratings service to report on actual viewership of programs and commercials that have been recorded for playback on TiVo and other time-shifting devices.
The bad news is that only 17 percent of homes are using DVRs, shifting as much as 39.9 percent of programming for playback within 72 hours of the initial telecast. The good news is that this is a trend still very much in its infancy, since 90 percent of all The DVR paradox is where the greatest opportunity for IPTV and DVR programming is self-evident.broadcast network programming is still consumed live, which means old-fashioned commercials are poised for a radical change in coming seasons as networks adjust to new viewing habits. Interestingly, cable and syndicated programming are viewed live more often, at 98 percent and 97 percent, respectively. Apparently, because cable shows repeat more often, people stay with their live viewing habits, which they've already adjusted to the most convenient time for a favorite show, such as The Sopranos.
"The irony of the DVR situation is that often the most popular programs get DVRed, so you pay a premium to get on the best shows, and you're mostly getting skipped by the most desirable demographics," Steve Calder, executive media director at Mediahub, of Interpublic Group's Mullen agency told Advertising Age (subscription required).
Your favorite shows, which are also the ones you and everyone else is likely to use a DVR to capture for viewing on your own schedule, may fall into a gap in this new regime, because viewership of DVR'd programming is likely to be discounted. Call it the "DVR paradox," as popularity may strangle shows rather than lift them in profitability because Nielsen will now categorize programming into six "streams" that include:
- Live viewing;
- Live viewing plus DVR playback on the same day;
- Live viewing plus DVR playback for one, two, three or seven days.
The longer it takes you to get to the program, the less it will be valued in Nielsen's new "average commercial minute," on the assumption that the longer after the "live" ad is delivered, the less it will be viewed and retained by viewers.
Okay, so commercial ads are going the way of steam locomotives. That's okay, but what if your favorite show is canceled because it has lower live- and first- or second-day viewer numbers? Then, you might feel bad, cheated by the fact that Nielsen and the television industry haven't kept up with your habits. Of course, you could just use the time to surf the Web or read a book, too, so it's not all bad. But I'd miss Lost, for instance.
The DVR paradox is where the greatest opportunity for IPTV and DVR programming moved across devices in the home becomes self-evident. If the commercial system cannot sustain popular shows that are likely to be saved for as long as it takes a fan to get to them, then alternative business models will make sense. Whether subscription payment for shows, interactive advertising that asks for some feedback to provide value to a sponsor, or the inclusion of a badge on the show (e.g. "Brought to you by Cheer"), programmers recognizing a passionate fan base will be compelled to try something new.