How big can Ubuntu get?

Nearly half the Linux machines checked so far in the Open Source Census are running Ubuntu, and a new, even easier-to-use release comes out tomorrow.

Shuttleworth, meanwhile, is just the kind of high-profile entrepreneur open source needs to move forward.  The British press treats him as a sort of Richard Branson for the 21st century and he seems to delight in the attention.

Shuttleworth recently told the BBC that the Microhoo deal is really good, because it will bring thousands of open source advocates to Redmond. Business is great, people are wonderful, the world is beautiful, and has he told you yet about his space flight?

Still there are growing indications that desktop Linux is hitting a ceiling. Bundling applications with the operating system won't get the share up by itself. There's the question of whether the desktop metaphor is even worthwhile anymore.

So we have today's question. Will Ubuntu make Shuttleworth a desktop fortune, or fighting the last technology war?[poll id=76]