Video-over-mobile's slow start will make $3bn

If you don't have the handset, you can't watch the telly

With several of the mobile industry big names already getting involved in video and TV over mobile, the market won't take off for the foreseeable future.

Analyst house IDC predicts that the relatively low rate of video- and TV-enabled handsets will serve to hamper growth until the end of the decade, with subscribers numbering some 30 million in the US by 2009. DRM and media players' ease of use will also affect the rate of uptake.

The revenue from short-clip, live streaming and video downloads will reach $3bn in the US by 2009, according to IDC – some considerable way behind the $19.3bn mobile gaming is expected to generate.

Lewis Ward, senior research analyst in IDC's Wireless and Mobile Communications program, said that by the end of the decade, monthly ARPU (average revenue per user) for wireless video and TV will be around $10 per subscriber – making it the biggest revenue generator aside from voice minutes.