Voting With Dollars: Online Ad Spending Only Faces Thin "Scalpel"
Overall ad spending in all types of media may shrink this year and next, as forecasts get revised and reality sets in. But online ad spending will still grow in double digits, eMarketer CEO Geoff Ramsey told attendees of the ad:tech NY conference today.
Online ad spending faces a "scalpel,'' as forecasters revise their 2008 estimates in the face of the global economic downturn, Ramsey said. But, in the case of search and display advertising, the trimming will only be by "a percentage point or two."
Right now, eMarketer's amalgamation of forecasts puts the general consensus at 17.4% growth for the year. That, Ramsey said, is likely to be fairly close to the mark, even with some slicing.
The Interactive Advertising Bureau, he said, reported first half growth in online ad spending at 15.2%. Microsoft's ad revenues came in 15% up in the third quarter and Google's came in 22% up, he said.
This compares to a current projection of 1.9% growth in ad spending on all media in 2008 and 1.1% in 2009. But Ramsey warned that those numbers could turn negative, as forecasts reflect cutbacks just starting to take place by marketers.
More than half of marketers are already beginning to institute cuts, according to one survey taken in early October, amid financial market turmoil.
That number could be as high as 85%, Ramsey said, as the economic crunch continues. eMarketer's numbers (and strategies) for getting through the crunch can be found here.
Other indicators of the health of the digital economy, from ad:tech today:
--The average American cell phone subscriber now sends 357 text messages each month.
--The average American cell phone subscriber makes 204 voice calls each month.
--Young Americans (ages 13 to 17) send 1,742 text messages each month on their cell phones.
--Young Americans make 231 voice calls each month on their cell phones.
--175,000 blogs get created each day.
--1.6 million blog postings are made each day.
--13 hours of video get uploaded to YouTube each day.
--400 online ad networks now exist, worldwide.
--80 percent of Internet ad space goes unsold.
SOURCES: eMarketer, Prime Visibility, Augme Mobile, Nielsen Media, Rubicon Project