It might. The answer lies with Google. It won't take a lot of convincing for geeks to switch from Facebook to Google+ but for Ma and Pa Kettle, well, that's a different story. Huey, Dewey and Louie Kettle will use both for a while but will end up gravitating to Google+, which might well turn Facebook into the next MySpace. Why? Because Google+ is cooler. Much cooler. Or, at least it could be.
The real question is, "Do we need another social networking outlet." The answer is, "No, we absolutely do not." We need a social networking outlet that's actually social in nature. I know that's a crazy idea but apparently what I think of as social is not what the general public thinks of as social. I see social networking as interacting, talking, discussing and not simply posting pictures and comments for others to comment on. People have a need to be social--really social.
Google+ is on the right track with some of their features.
By now you've read about Circles and Hangouts and how you can group people you "friend" into Friends, Acquaintances and Family--so I won't bother with rehashing that for you.
But, what makes Google+ so much more compelling than Facebook, if it isn't those features?
It's Google.
Like Apple, Google has that special something that you can't quite put your finger on that makes it irresistible. The French call it, "Je ne sais quois," which translates to, "I don't know what." It's what makes certain products and services so good that we must have them and use them, though we're not sure why.
I've tried hating Apple. I've made fun of the one-button mouse for years. I've tried to hate Google too. But, there's nothing better than GMail. Google's search engine is the best. It's that same thing that makes us hate Microsoft Windows but we still use it. It's that elusive thing that would make me a billionaire if I could crack the code.
We used to love MySpace. Nothing was cooler than MySpace. Now we make fun of it. We scoff at anyone who still mentions it with a positive tone.
Facebook will have the same fate as MySpace, if Google plays the game correctly. Facebook will become an albatross and we'll make fun of it. We'll laugh at ourselves for ever having used it. Instead of admitting our early adoption of it, we'll brag about being one of the early bailouts from its now sunken hull. And, Google+ will cast its long shadow upon what was once Facebook's grand illusion.
But, what will it take to convince a half billion Facebook users to switch to Google+?
I have some ideas.