Virtualization and the Third Party Kiss-off.

No, I'm not talking about The Tea Party or politics at all. I am however, talking about third party support for virtualization software. Any product vendor will tell you that, if you don't have third-party support, your product is history. Virtualization is about to experience a familiar phenomenon known as Third Party Kiss-off, where software developers gravitate toward one or two solutions and abandon the rest. It's the virtual and literal kiss-off of death for those forgotten entities. Don't worry, we'll speak well of you over cocktails at the next VMworld. Oops, did I really just write that?

It looks like I did.

Yep, you're likely to see VMware around for a while longer. But, Hyper-V? Not so much. Xen and XenServer? We'll see. KVM? Sure, it's an "up and comer" and hopefully the momentum will last.

But, I don't determine who'll stay and who'll go in the Hypervisor space. Developers do--third party software developers to be specific. They're the ones who drive acceptance and adoption. They're the ones who make our decisions of which technologies rule our data centers. And, they're the ones to blame if one or more technologies fail.

If you don't believe in the power of third party development and product adoption, think about Windows vs. Linux, Windows vs. OS/2 or VHS vs. BetaMax. Yes, I know the last one isn't software but I'm using my artistic license here to make the point. Don't focus on it. Think instead on the fact that popularity isn't always based on quality because I just gave you three good examples to the contrary.

Popularity is based on third party support. Adoption is based on expandability. Long-term acceptance is based on those periodic upgrades we all complain about.

Third party apps are driving iPad and iPhone adoption. Do you think that everyone would want those things if Apple was the sole supplier of apps? OK, there would be the die-hard Mac nerds that buy anything Apple produces but I'm talking about mass adoption here not militant factions and subcultures.

Third party support = Success.

Third party kiss-off = Failure.

So, the question is, "Which Hypervisor(s) will third party software developers support?"

The answer is VMware and KVM.

What virtualization technologies do you think third party software developers will support and which ones will get the kiss-off? If you work for a third party software development company, I'm especially interested in what you have to say on the subject. Talk back and let me know what you think.