Gartner's outlook for the next five years revolves around the idea that artificial intelligence will augment human decisions, emotions and relationships. The big question is whether Gartner's prognostications will play out in the next five years.
At the Gartner IT Symposium/Xpo, analyst Daryl Plummer outlined the trends to expect in the years ahead. Here's a look at the predictions both good and bad.
By 2025, half of the people with a smartphone without a bank account will use a cryptocurrency account. Expanding access to non-cash payment platforms is a big deal and could be critical to Africa and Asia economies.
Chance of happening. Mixed. Cryptocurrency isn't fully developed and it's unclear whether there will be a regulatory framework for cryptocurrency.
By 2023, the number of people with disabilities will triple due to AI and emerging technologies such as augmented and virtual reality. The general theme is that emerging technologies will make work more accessible for employees with disabilities.
Chance of happening. Solid, but the time frame is a bit dicey. There are also cultural hiring issues to overcome too.
By 2023, a self-regulatory association will oversee AI and machine learning in at least four of the G7 countries. Regulating algorithms will be critical and there has to be some protection for malfunctioning algorithms.
Chance of happening. Slim and none. Sure, Europe may roll AI and machine learning policy into broader technology regulation, but it's doubtful that regulators can even understand how to manage algorithms.
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30% of world news and video content will be authenticated by blockchain by 2023 to prevent deep fakes. Gartner argued that media organizations will battle disinformation with blockchain.
Chance of happening. Slim. Media companies will need the capital to invest in blockchain and the technology knowhow. Media companies don't have either.
By 2021, digital transformation will take twice as long and cost twice as much as anticipated.
Chance of happening. Highly likely. You didn't think all enterprises were going to nail this digital transformation thing did you?
By 2024, AI will be able to gauge emotion before serving you an online ad. The theme here is that marketers will use AI and machine learning as technologies to personalize experiences. Computer vision will gauge your emotions to hit you with ads.
Chance of happening. Likely for a few tech giants. Amazon, Google and Facebook will likely leverage emotions in advertising. The rest of the advertising community won't have the money to invest.
By 2023, individual activities will be tracked by an Internet of behavior for benefits and services for 40% of the global population.
Chance of happening. Likely. The Internet of behavior is just a spin on transactional data exchanges between companies and customers.
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The you can't be serious
Through 2023, 30% of IT organizations will allow employees to bring their own enhancements to work. According to Gartner, workers will bring everything from wearables to physical augmentations to work.
Chance of happening. Slim. Broadly speaking employees will augment their performance with whatever is available. The time frame for these "BYOE" policies is wildly optimistic.
40% of professional workers will orchestrate their business applications similar to how they manage music streaming by 2023.
The idea here is that employees will create work environments that are similar to their personal technology approach.
Chance of happening. While it would be swell if business applications were as easy as creating a playlist, enterprise processes are going to require more.
By 2024, the World Health Organization will identify online shopping as an addictive disorder.
Chance of happening. Slim. E-commerce will grow for sure, but many consumers already have had a shopping problem in the physical world. Don't hold your breath for WHO to move against shopping.