Ever wonder why Apple doesn't seem keen on settling the Android patent lawsuits it's involved in? It's because there's more money in winning.
On Monday, Deutsche Bank's Chris Whitmore sent a note out to clients outlining the four possible outcomes for Apple in its various battles with Android device makers worldwide.
Here's what he saw as the four outcomes:
- A settlement which resulted in Apple received a license fee per device sold
- Apple cripples Android and captures 25% of its future market share
- No winner
- Apple loses
Whitmore doesn't seem to consider outcome #3 and #4 all that likely and instead concentrates on outcomes #1 and #2.
Whitmore believes that a settlement would give Apple some $10 in revenue for each Android device sold, equating to some $35 to Apple's share price. However, if Apple was able to capture 25% of Android future growth through halting distribution and forcing feature removal, that could be worth some $300 per extra handset sold, or a whopping $261 on top of Apple's already buoyant share price.
"As a result," Whitmore says, "we suspect Apple is unlikely to settle cheaply."
I've said all along that I don't think that Apple will settle. The company doesn't need the $10 or so per handset. Apple is out for as much market share and dominance and it can grab.
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