Four reasons why new survey shows mobile market momentum shifting to iPhone, BlackBerry

According to a survey of 4,182 cell phone users, releasled today by ChangeWave Research, it seems that the march toward PDAs and related smartphones will quicken in the next six months.

This pace, which favors the Apple iPhone and newer models from BlackBerry, seems to be coming at the expense of older models, especially from Motorola.

What these stats tell me is that with the one-year anniversary if iPhone coming in less than four months, and BlackBerry's advanced new features having been present for at least that long, consumers are eyeing the termination of their two-year contracts as an especially appropriate time to upgrade devices and perhaps to switch carriers as well.

Let's look at three of the charts that ChangeWave released today:

iPhone market shares will increase just slightly- perhaps reflective of the "I've got mine already" factor- but BlackBerry market share will grow a bit more dramatically.

A lot of that slip is due in fact that Motorola has not been as dynamic in the smartphone space as rivals RIM (BlackBerry) and Apple (iPhone).

And finally:

This slide evokes two takeaways,  for a total of four in this post:

Most of these manufacturers also offer, or will offer, smartphones. The fact that iPhone and BlackBerry are tracking as more likely buys over the next six months tells me at least in part that these other companies are not doing a great job at positioning new devices as  functionality rivals to such models as the BlackBerry Curve and the iPhone.

Whoa. Palm, which makes the Treo smartphone, has some issues with user satisfaction.  What are they, Treo-owning readers?